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Monday, May 15, 2017
UFC 211 Fallout
After a very slow
start to 2017 the first big card of year arrived. In the shadow of
the classic boxing heavyweight title fight Stipe Miocic rematched the
last man to beat him looking to defend his heavyweight championship.
Joanna Jedrejcyk returned to the city she won her championship in
facing what some saw as her toughest test. Several of the UFC longest
tenured vets faced off with title implication in the balance. So did
card live up to its hype?
The In Ring
Action- Yes it did! MMA can be
a strange beast. Cards that should be thrilling start to finish can
be flops and cards viewed as weak can give you the event of the year.
Now a few years ago Miocic
and Dos Santos took part in a classic fight. Some
writers speculated if it could match
the classic heavyweight boxing fight. I
thought that was a little ridicules
given the factors that went into fight with Joshua and Klitschko. In
the UFC 211 main event Junior
Dos Santos landed some
strong leg kicks clearly hurting champion Miocic. It
seemed like a good strategy as it would take away Miocic’s movement
and athleticism and limit his power. However
Dos Santos once again showed a long standing bad habit he kept is
back against the cage. Miocic
saw his chance and landed a right hand knocking JDS out.
He might have been limping Miocic took a victory lap having tired the
record for the most title defenses.
In the co-main Joanna Jedrzejczyk put
Jessica Andrade through a master class of
striking. With her raw
strength and aggressive style it was thought Andrade could be a
threat to Joanna Champion. Instead
we once again saw just how great the Polish champion is. Using
her jab along with powerful front and leg kicks she kept Andrade off
her for extended periods of time. She
used great footwork and movement to avoid most of Andrade’s
attacks. When Andrade was
able drag her down Jedrzejczyk fought
her back up and punished Andrade.
Demian
Maia has looked nearly unstoppable lately. However for various
reason’s he’s been unable to get a title shot. It’s
no secret what Maia wants to its get the clinch drag the fight to the
ground and submit you. Going
into there fight Jorge Masvidal claimed his wrestling would able to
stop Maia’s take downs. In the first Maia managed to take the back
but Masvidal survived and
when Maia slipped off late Gamebread punished
him with hard shots. What
they played out was a fascinating battle Maia trying to get the fight
to the ground and Masviadl trying to keep it standing and getting him
to strike. It was back and forth and frankly it was a case of to
close to call. Maia scored the win but if
the judges had give it to Masvidal it wouldn’t have been shocking.
Yair Rodriguez attempted to
make the most difficult leap in sports. From breakout star true
contender. Faced with
veteran former champion Frankie Edgar he
learned just how hard that leap can be. Rodriguez has a flashy
offensive style. Using strong boxing mixed with footwork, fakes and
feints Edgar got Rodriguez on his back foot early on. Edgar
than Rodriguez down and mauled him. After
the second round the doctor’s stepped in and called the fight off
with Rodriguez having a large swelling around his eye.
The
opening fight of the PPV was the one bad fight on the show. Frankly
it wasn’t that bad it was just wasn’t that great. Former WSOF two
division champion David Branch returned to the UFC for the first time
in years against top ten ranked Kryzsztof Jotko. Branch seemed like
he was a big nervous and Jotko like he was afraid to lose. The
undercard was a series of exciting fight I recommend seeking out the
Courtney Casey vs Jessica Agular, Chase Sherman vs. Rashad Coulter,
and Chase Skelly vs. Jason Knight. The featured prelim between Eddie
Alvarez and Dustin Porier looked like it was a classic in the making.
Until the mess that is new
rules vs. old road and allowing states to control major fight took
over again. Alvarez had been badly hurt but was fight back in when he
hit Porier with a series of knee. I have no idea if they were legal
or illegal under either rule set. The fight was just over. I know
giving control to the UFC to make it’s own rules won’t fix
everything. Human’s make mistakes. But Herb Dean just like Dan
Merglotta is a good ref and having the same rules would help them
make fewer ones.
Biggest Winners:
Stipie Miocic-
The heavyweight championship of
the world still belongs to Cleveland’s finest. Miocic came into the
UFC with huge potential and heavy expectations and he’s lived up to
and surpassed them. His first loss was his first main event in
hindsight it wasn’t that bad a loss given it was to a very
experienced UFC vet. His second loss was to JDS the first time he
faced a true elite fighter. That was a close split decision loss.
Since that day he’s been
unstoppable. He hasn't been outside of the first round since 2015.
Beating JDS in such convincing fashion makes it clear he’s the best
heavyweight in MMA right now. Also any fighter will tell you it’s
sweat to avenge a loss and with knockout it’s extra sweat. Plus the
win bonus and performance of the night bonus should cover the cost of
the new kitchen he’s remolding.
Demian Maia- Maia
has had a single title shot in his UFC career back when he was a
middleweight. Since dropping to welterweight he’s always seemed to
be on the verge of a title shot but one thing or another kept him out
it. An unexpected loss to Jake Shields, Thompson and Woodley’s
first fight being a draw. Finally
after beating Jorge Masvidal in a tough fight Dana White made it
clear the next shot was his. At 39 time it short on Maia’s career.
Another delay might mean he will never get a second shot. Hell even
during the post fight Tyron Woodley pretty much confirmed he knew
there was no way the UFC was going to book something else.
Smaller Fight
Camps- I talked about this when
Miocic won the title but it bears repeating now. Often a fighter
starts off with a camp close to home. Eventually anyone real talent
is expected to move onto a bigger team with elite coaches and high
level training partners. Than there is Miocic who started with his
strong style fight team. Outside of Jessica Eye he’s the only high
level fighter that’s a part of it. By
staying with his team it shows you don’t always have to leave home.
Also Parana Vale Tudo the team that trains Jessica Andrade got there
fighter into a world title shot. While some wondered if they would be
embarrassed instead they did well corning her. Frankly it was just
the fact Joanna champion is so good.
Biggest Losers:
Junior Dos
Santos- Leading up to his title
shot Junior was asked if he thought this could be his last chance to
regain the title. He laughed
it off reminding people he was only thirty three. Except thirty three
can be old for an athlete. Often
it’s not an issue of how old an athlete is but how hard there
career has been. In his
career Dos Santos has taken a lot of damage. His
second and third fights with Velasquez saw him take awful beatings.
His first fight with Miocic was a war that saw him hurt several
times. Now he’s been
knocked out by Overeem and Miocic in two of his last three fights.
While his supports will point to his win over Ben Rothwell but there
is no denying this was a major setback. You
can only get it so many times. And right now there are emerging
contenders in the division.
What comes next
The simple truth is there is not a clear cut next contender at
heavyweight right now. Stylistically many have suggested Cain
Velasquez. The issue as it often is is that Velasquez can’t stay
healthy. He was denied a licness earlier this year after admitting he
needed back surgery. Add into the fact he lost so badly against
Werdum who has remained active. Werdum and Overeem have a fight with
each other coming up. However both lost in the first round to Miocic
in the first round. That said all three could be interesting fights.
The one name that seems to keep keep coming up next for Jedrzejczyk
is Rose Namajunas. Thug Rose has always been viewed as a fighter with
a huge upside. She’s got a very flash style wit standing up and a
strong ground game.
Tuesday, May 9, 2017
UFC 211 Picks
The UFC has a fairly
slow start to the year. But that ends here we got a loaded card. We
even lost a high level fight due to a USADA flag and its still a
great card.
UFC Heavyweight
Championship Stipe Miocic © 16-2 MMA 10-2 UFC vs. Junior dos Santos
18-4 MMA 12-3 UFC- December
14th
2014 these two men met in the main event of a UFC on Fox card. The
story going in was Miocic the young fighter everyone thought would be
champion one day taking JDS the former champion had just lost the
third fight with Velasquez. It was actually a very exciting fight. It
was very close and I remember that night scoring it for Miocic as I
think a lot of people did. However the judges scored it for dos
Santos giving him a win. But this sport’s path is rarely a straight
line. JDS has dealt with injures limiting him to only two fights
since than. Stipe goes on a roll just tearing through guys and well
here we now. Miocic is champion.
Miocic
last fought in September at UFC 203. It was his first title defense
and he was paired up with Alistair
Overeem. He had some real
pressure on him. The show was held in his home town of Cleveland.
That can actually be something of curse. Early on got hurt badly by a
big body kick and than was knocked down with a right hand. Than he
was caught in the Guillotine choke. He
managed to escape got back up and than started to hurt Overeem. He
eventually got the fight down to the ground got mount and finished it
with sledge hammer like ground and pound. He’s now won four in a
row all via knockout and the last three have all been in the first
round. JDS last fought in April at a Fight Night. He
was paired up with Ben Rothwell. Going into the that fight Rothwell
had won four in a row having finished all four. But
dos Santos came in and fought a near perfect fight. He
used his footwork and kept Rothwell off him. He mixed in kicks so the
right never became a brawl. JDS scored
a decision win and with a prior win over the champion he’s getting
the chance to win back the title he once held.
When
you talk about the stand up debate you have two the two best boxers
in all of MMA and easily the best two in the heavyweight division.
Miocic is a former golden
gloves champion. Dos Santos early on in his UFC career showed some
brilliant footwork and really dominated guys with only punches. That
said both men have great kicks as well. Miocic has leg kicks that are
devastating and JDS manged to KO Mark Hunt with one and vs. Rothwell
sent him flying with a side kick. In
terms of the knockout power Miocic has twelve career knockouts eight
of which are in the UFC and in his MMA career eight are in the first
round. He has one career
loss via knockout. Dos
Santos also has twelve career knockout wins in his career. Seven
in the UFC with in the UFC. He’s been knocked out twice in his UFC
career. Now in terms of
technical skill I would say dos Santos is better on that end but
Miocic has really freaky power. For example if you go back and watch
his title win he won going backwards with a punch he didn’t fully
get to extend. That said
cleaner technique often can land first and harder. So I am calling ti
a draw standing up.
We
often don’t see see either guy on the ground unless
it to finish a guy with ground and pound. Junior
dos Santos does have a BJJ
black belt but he only has two career submission wins and one of
those was off an injury. He’s
only been submitted once in his career that was way back in 2007 very
early in his career. Miocic
does have some very good wrestling in but his
lone submission win was off of hitting a guys with leg kick and
forcing him to quit. JDS has
shown very good takedown defense but we did see in the second and
third Velasquez fights
making him wrestle can tire him out. Again
I m lean towards giving the edge to Miocic in that I think he will be
looking to grapple more. JDS might only grapple when
forced to.
Looking
at training Miocic is the stand out member of the Ohio based Strong
Style Fight Team. That is the team he has spent his whole career
with. Really outside of Jessica Eye he is the only fighter fro that
team to reach a national promotion. Dos
Santos is training with American Top Team. ATT one of the oldest and
most successful training camps in MMA. Now
for a long time I’ve always felt the bigger team with the more
renowned coaches and more high level training partners is the
advantage. However we have
seen more and more fighters either move to a smaller team or start
mixing it up spending some time with a big team but staying close to
home. Also JDS has moved around a bit in recent years also spending
time with first team, Nova Uno, and now ATT. Miocic’s coaches have
been around him so long they know his good days and bad days. ATT’s
staff may still be learning about dos Santos. That said he’s now
been with them a few camps. Also I still think ATT has better
coaches. So slight edge to JDS.
When we get to X-Factor its who is the fresher fighter? Age wise
Miocic is older by a few months but often in MMA its not a case of ow
many miles on the odomator but how hard have the miles been? JDS has
been in more fights and frankly taken a lot of damage in his career.
I don’t think he’s ever been quite the same since the second
fight with Velasquez where he took a large amount of punishment. He
also was badly beat up in the third fight with the two. The first
fight with Miocic was the kind of action fight where both men wind up
feeling it for a while. He also was pretty beat up after the fight
with Hunt and than KO’ed against the Reem. Miocic did get KO’ed
vs. Struve but other than that and the fist JDS fight’s managed to
avoid much damage until he was Rocked vs. the Reem. If this winds up
being a war you have to wonder how much JDS could take. Advantage
Miocic. The other big X-Factor I think will be athleticism. Miocic
has got amazing movement and speed. No one else in the division
really matches that well with him advantage Miocic.
The final X-Factor is history. No UFC heavyweight champion has ever
been able to defend that championship more than twice in a single
reign. The simple truth is when you have guy this big and strong it
just takes one little opening to end a fight. Dos Santos saw this
better than anyone. When he won the title it took a single shot to
win it. When he lost the title he was hit with one big shot he never
recovered from. A lot of people think Miocic can be the guy to break
this trend, but we thought that about Brock, Cain, and Werdum.
Advantage JDS trends like this do hold up for a reason.
Picking in the heavyweight division is always just a 50 50 shot. Like
I said above it just takes that one little moment. That said I’m
pretty confident Miocic wins. I don’t like the amount of damage
that JDS has taken over the year. Miocic was a handful for him a few
years ago. Now Miocic is a much better fighter and I really haven’t
seen improvement from JDS. Also we have a very clear game plan to
beat JDS now. I think Miocic gets a decision win as he uses more of
his wrestling tires JDS out early and than knocks him out in the
third.
UFC Strawweight
Championship Joanna Jedrejczyk (c) 13-0 MMA 7-0 UFC vs. Jessica
Andrade 16-5 MMA 7-3 UFC- This
is one of those fights you just go “Oh this could amazing.”
Jedrzejczyk has been so dominate as world champion you wonder who
could truly challenge her. Andre
is so aggressive and so was a top ten fighter at Bantamweight who has
looked unstoppable since dropping to straweight. Since
Andrade dropped down a lot of people have wanted to see her fight
Joanna. People think she could be the one to take the title. And we
have seen Joanna look a bit vulnerable lately. Most importunity
Andrade is a fighter the comes forward and attacks we haven’t seen
someone do that with Jedrejzyk.
Jedrzejczyk
last fought in November back at UFC 205. She
was challenged by Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Now the two had fought once
back as ameatures with Joanna winning. UFC 205was no ameature fight.
It was the biggest event in MMA history. Lots of media lots of talk.
Joanna looked like she was onto another big dominate win. However in
the fourth round Kowalkiewicz caught her with a counter strike. We
had seen her caught and we had seen her hurt but she was in trouble
for a while. Now she recovered and had done more than enough to win
that fight. But much like with Demetrius Johnson looking weak vs. Tim
Elliot just the sight of her getting hurt was a big story. Andrade
last fought in February
during Super Bowl weekend during a Fight Night. She was matched up
with Angela Hill. Hill was
making her return to the UFC after
a strong run in Invitca. It was an exciting series of exchanges
Andrade managed to get the unanimous decision win. She is now 3-0 at
straweight.
Striking
is what a lot of people want to see in this fight. Andrade is a very
aggressive striker. She
comes foreword throwing as much as she can. She
throws wild punches and loves to brawl. Now she only has five career
knockouts. Part of that is
she fought her career at bantamweight where she was always the
smaller fighter. She has
only been knocked out twice in her career showing she’s got a great
chin. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is
a former Muay Thai fighter with over sixty fights in her career
between Armature and Pro fights. Now
she only has four career knockouts in MMA but she hits hard. When she
connects you hear it. Go watch how beat Jessica Penne and Valerie
Letourneau were after fighting
her. I have to give a clear
edge to Joanna. She has much better technical striking. Andrade likes
to loop her punches while Joanna comes down the pipe. Joanna
is a very good counter striker and also uses her kicks very well. She
is also very smart with the strikes she thrown. Yes in her last two
fights she was dropped and than dazed but those were brief moments
other than that she was a superior striker.
We
haven’t seen any real ground game for Jedrejczyk. We have seen show
very good takedown defense in her career. But
in terms of submission she only has one in her pro career. When
someone tries to take her down we usually see her sprawl and hit some
hard elbows. Now she did
have issues when Claudia Gadelha so she can taken down and even kept
down for a time. Andrade has seven career submissions and has only
been submitted twice. Also I don’t see Joanna taking this fight to
the ground she might clinch to hit knees and elbows but not get a
takedown. Andrade I think almost has to work the ground game is she’s
going to win. So edge Andrade.
Looking
at the training camps Joanna Champion is now out of American Top
Team. This will be her second fight with that team. Mike Brown a
former WEC champion often serves as the head coach for the females on
that team. Brown is regarded
as great corner man. The
team has a great roster of coaches in
every aspect. Also I think
with Joanna, Amanda Nunes and a few others it has one of the best
classes of female talents in the world. Andrade
trains with Parana Vale Tudo in Brazil. I
can’t find a lot of info on that team and it appear Andrade would
be the most well known fighter from it. Now Andrade said before the
Hill fight she needed the money from that to finance a championship
level camp when for when she fights Joanna. Now
that doesn’t mean she thinks her team sucks. It’s not uncommon to
bring in specialized training partners. For example Woodley brought
Sage Northcutt for both Thompson camps. But I do feel the edge goes
to Joanna. Even
if Andrade was only talking getting great Muay Thai fighters Joanna
take the x here.
Looking
at the X-Factor the biggest might be does Andrade let Joanna get to
her. Joanna is one of those fighters that has such a big reputation
before you face her she mentally breaks people. And she loves to play
mind games. She loves to get people’s face trash talk and mock. But
Andreade whole style is built on coming forward. If she does that and
fights her fight that already a win for her. And
we really haven’t seen someone pressure Joanna striking wise. The
other big X-factor is the fact the fight is five rounds. Joanna has
gone that distance the last three fight. This is Andrade first fight
that long. And a lot fighters have said you can train you ass off but
it’s still test the first time you got into championship rounds in
actual fight. Huge edge for
the champion.
My
pick is simple. It’s Joanna. She is such a great striker I can’t
see anyone getting the better of her for very long. I think Andrade
will try to brawl and that will backfire. I think Joanna picks her
off at rang breaks her down with leg kicks and than finishes it in
the fourth round with a TKO win.
Demian Maia 24-6
MMA 18-6 UFC vs. Jorge Masvidal 32-11 MMA 9-4 UFC- Demian
Maia should have gotten a title shot by now. He’s won six in row
finished three of them dominated every fight. Hell he’s barely even
been hit in those fights. But when Woodley vs. Wonderboy 1 was a draw
it caused a rematch and now with the way things worked out Maia felt
he needed to take another fight. Jorge
Masvidal is a fighter that most of his career has been an also ran
but he’s gotten very good lately and a win here could make him the
number one contender. Maia
last fought in August in the main event of a UFC on Fox card. He was
matched up with former WEC and UFC Interim champion Carlos Condit. He
got right into the clinch dragged Condit down locked in a choke and
won in just under two minutes. That
was put him at six in a row. Masvidal
last fought in January at another UFC on Fox card. That
fight he faced Donald Cerrone. Since dropping welterweight Cerrone
had been amazing he was
unbeaten. Masvidal destroyed him using his superior. It
was so bad the normally calm Greg Jackson was screaming “We aren’t
losing” at Cowboy after the first round. Jackson was wrong Masvidal
knocked Cerrone out with ease in the second round. He’s
now won three in a row
There
is no denying Masvidal will have the advantage when it comes to
striking. He’s got very clean boxing. He throws good hard punches.
He’s only got 12 career knockouts but he’s now got two in a row.
He’s only been knocked out
once in his MMA career. He’s
also got a professional boxing fight to his credit. Maia
doesn’t really strike. He’s only won three fight via knockout. He
really doesn’t have the great technique. He’s
only lost via knockout though. Really Maia only goes into striking
mood when he can’t get a takedown. And
well go watch his fight with Chris Weidman to see how sloppy that can
be. If this fight stays standing it favors Jorge Masvidal.
Now
there is no denying that the grappling edges goes to Maia. He
is a fourth degree BJJ blackbelt. In
BJJ tournaments he won many of the biggest ones in the world. In
MMA he has won twelve fights via submission and never been submitted
in his career. Even in
fights where he doesn’t
get the submission he just drags guys down and controls them just
watch his fight with Jon Fitch. Masvidal
does have a wrestling background but that was in high school. In
MMA he won two fight via submission and lost two via submission. Maia
has insane state about how little he gets hit and that is because he
easily gets guys down. When this fight is on the ground Masvial is
swimming with a shark.
Looking at the training camps Maia currently trains with his own
Demian Maia Jiu-Jitsu. Now He’s done very well with his own team.
More and more we are seeing fighters in MMA do this. Often with your
own team it becomes all about you it’s about getting you ready its
more like how boxers do it. Masvidal is a long time member of
American Top Team. My gut say ATT give Masvidal the advantage.
Mainly I worry with Maia I wonder if he is doing any real striking
training.
I think the biggest X-factor will be size. Maia is 6’1 and fought
many years at Middleweight. Masvidal is 5’10 and has fought at
lightweight. We know what Maia’s game plane will be. He will want
to drag Masvidal to the ground after tying him up. Being the bigger
man will make that easier. Now Masvidal will have a reach advantage
but still in the clinch he will have issues. Advantage Maia.
My pick is Demian Maia. I think the size is going to be a big factor
add into that his huge grappling edge I think it’s a win for the
should be number one contender. Like I said Maia doesn’t really get
hit very often in his fights. Masvidal has said his wrestling will be
enough to keep the fight standing but I just recall the much better
wrestler Jon Fitch couldn’t stop him from taking him down. I say
first round submission for Maia.
Frankie Edgar
21-5-1 MMA 15-5-1 UFC vs. Yair Rodriguez 10-1 MMA 5-0 UFC- Classic
story in combat sports. The long time star the former world champion
wanting to make another run up the mountain in one corner. On
the other side the promising emerging star that appears to be a
champion in the making. This is a very fascinating fight that could
go either way. Frankie Edgar last fought at UFC 205 in November. He
was matched up with Jeremy Stephens. That was an
important fight for him. He was coming
a very one sided loss to Jose Aldo at UFC 200 and he
needed to prove he was still a contender. Much better fight for him
this time. He used good footwork and boxing mixed in his wrestling to
gain a unanimous decision win. Yair Rodriguez last made the walk to
the cage in January at a
UFC Fightnight. It was his second main event this
time he was matched up with BJ Penn. Now at this stage BJ is well
past his prime he’s a bigger name than actual ranked foe. Still
though you wonder would the moment be to big for Rodriquez? We had
seen his boxing wasn’t that strong could BJ who has heavy hands do
some damage? What if he got taken down? Well it didn’t matter.
Rodriquez showed improved boxing and mixing in his great kicks beat
the living crap out of Penn. He
knocked him out early in the second round.
Big
contrasts in striking. Edgar has six career knockout wins and
officially he has never been knocked out. However we have seen him
get his bell rung many times. Rodriguez
has four career knockouts now his one career loss was a knockout. I
think power edge goes to Rodriguez based on the higher rate. Now in
terms of striking style you don’t get much different. Edgar is a
boxer type. Now it’s easy to classify him as a “bite down on the
mouthpiece” type but we have seen him have very good footwork.
Rodriguez has a back round Taekwondo and we seen him amazing kicks.
Now Rodriguez will have the reach and with his kicks could Edgar at
range similar to Aldo. We
also saw Rodriguez show better boxing last time out. So
I am giving him the edge in striking.
When
it comes to grappling everything says Edgar. He only has four career
submission wins but he’s never been submitted in his career. He’s
a BJJ blackbelt having been trained by Renzo Gracie and Richado
Almedia. On top of that we
have seen him use his wrestling very well at featherweight he has
been able slam guys when he gets in and he does have a wrestling back
round. Rodriguez has one
career submission win. He is not formally ranked in BJJ and doesn’t
have any grappling back round. I
don’t think he’s faced a wrestler on the level of Edgar. Clearly
the edge goes to Frankie Edgar.
Looking at training Edgar works with Mark Henry for his striking and
as a head coach. As I mentioned in grappling he also has Renzo
Graciea and Almedia. That group of coaches also work with Eddie
Alvarez, Marlon Moraes, and some other high level guys. Rodriguez
Valle-Flow stiking. Its a smaller team which from interviews he’s
said it was due to wanting to work on his wrestling. I gotta give a
clear edge to Frankie here he’s got great coaches working with him.
Added bonus for have Alvarez on the same card which many fighters say
they love having teammate in camp for exact event as it helps them
peak just right.
The biggest X-Factor will be toughest test for one fighter just
another fight for the other. Rodriguez has looked amazing but he’s
yet to face a truly elite fighter like Frankie Edgar. For Frankie
though he’s been facing the best of the best for years now. Frankie
is tough and has that dog in him. On top of that Frankie has been
through it all in his career. He’s been hurt and come back. This
could the first time we Yair unable to land his fancy kicks or take
down and beat up. Both are huge edges for Frankie Edgar.
Now I do think Yair Rodriguez can be a UFC champion someday. But
today I’m picking Frankie Edgar. I could very well Yair doing well
on but thank Frankie getting hitting some good punches than tying him
up and taking him down over and over again. I also could simply see
Frankie landing a great punch and dropping him. I think its of those
times we see just far the next big thing still has to grow.
Henry Cejudo 10-2
MMA 4-2 UFC vs. Sergio Pettis 15-2 MMA 6-2 UFC- Both
these fighters entered the UFC with a lot of expectations.
Both have had success but
also struggled. Even sometimes in victory they haven’t impressed.
But every fight is a new
chance to impress. Cejudo
last fought in December at
the TUF Final. It was the
coaches fight with Joseph Benvidez. Now
he was looking really good but he kept hitting low blows costing him
a point. And in the end he lost fight on a decision. Now lost two in
row after a perfect 10-0 to start his career. Pettis last fought in
January at a UFC Fightnight he beat John Moraga via decision. He’s
won three in a row at Flyweight all via decision.
Neither guy really known as a knockout puncher Cejudo has the higher
rate with Four Knockouts in ten career wins. He’s was knocked out
off a body shot and ground and pound in the fight with Johnson.
Pettis only has three career knockouts in fifth teen career win. He’s
also only been knocked out once that was in the Ryan Benoit fight
again that was a TKO off of punches. Pettis has more of a background
in striking he’s a black belt in Taekwondo and also one in
Roufussport Kickboxing Program. From just watching them fight Pettis
has cleaner technical striking. Cejudo looks more to muscle his
punches. Edge goes to Pettis.
The grappling edge clearly goes to Cejudo its not even close. The man
was an Olympic gold medalist. He’s the classic been on the mat
since he was kid. Pettis does not have a background in grappling. And
we have seen struggle when he gets pushed into being forced to do it.
Now the submission numbers do favor Pettis as he has three career
submission wins and only been submitted once. Cejudo has never won
via submission win or ever been submitted. But the better wrestler
usually controls if BJJ ever becomes an issue. So edge Cejudo.
Looking training Pettis is a long standing member of Roufusport under
the great Duke Rofus one of the best coaches in MMA. That teams has a
number of very good coaches and some great fighters on the team. They
include Sergio’s older brother Anthony a former UFC champion, Ben
Askren, and Tyron Woodley and a few others. Cejudo trains with Fight
Ready in Arizona. Seems to be he’s the biggest name on there. I
know his older brother is one of his coaches. From what I can tell a
few guys from his TUF team have joined. Right now clear edge to
Pettis he’s got the best of the best back there. They may not be
able to make him a better wrestler than Cejudo but they can show him
how to make it harder for Cejudo to wrestle.
I think the biggest X-Factor will be who is more likely to be great.
Like I said in the open both guy have good records but don’t
impress they don't’ have that highlight reel moment. Who is more
likely to do that is Cejudo. He’s seems to have more power and
seems to have ability to just slam Pettis down. It always feels like
Pettis just goes out there gets into first gear and if that’s
enough it’s enough it’s not well there isn’t a second one.
I am picking Cejudo. I think he will feel more pressure and it will
cause him to fight at a high level. I expect him to take Pettis down
early and often and keep him down. It will to the distance and the
judges give it to Cejudo.
Eddie Alvarez
28-5 MMA 3-2 UFC vs. Dustin Poirier 21-5 13-4 UFC-
This is one of those fights
that I think the matchmakers put together to get a fight of the
night. Eddie Alvarez last fought in November at UFC 205. It was the
biggest event in MMA history it was the biggest fight of his life,
and it was the worse performance of his career. He entered as the UFC
Lightweight Champion and was defending against the biggest star in
the sport Conor McGregor. He
had openly called Conor an easy. There was a feeling that Conor
hadn’t earned all the oppturines he’s been given. And on paper it
should have been a very close fight. Eddie is very tough and
experienced he has great stand up and is very good offensive
wrestler. Yet in realty it
was a night of target practice for Conor. Eddie took the left hand
over and over again. And Eddie got dropped a few times. Conor started
to put his hands behind his back daring Eddie to him and Alvarez just
froze. Finally just over three minutes into the second it was over.
Poirier last fought in February at UFC 208. He
was matched up with Jim Miller. Early on he suffered a leg injury.
But kept fighting and had a thrilling battle and earned a decision
win. He’s now five of six since moving up to lightweight.
Alvarez
has the higher KO rate. He’s got 15 career knockouts and only been
knocked out twice in his career. Poirier
has teen career knockouts and also only has two career knockout
losses. Both men use a lot
of boxing as the primary striking style. Poirier will have a three
inch reach advantage 72 to 69. Alvarez has shown very good foot work
and use of feints. Also if you go back and watch the fight with RDA
he showed great use of mixing it up going to the head and the body.
This could be a very good
fight I will give a slight edge to Eddie based on his footwork. And
I stress slight edge.
When
it comes to grappling it’s Alvarez with the background in wrestling
from back when he was in
high school. For the most part he does a good job of mixing in his
wrestling during a fight. Both men are ranked brown belts in BJJ and
both trainer with upper level coaches so these are empty belts. In
terms of numbers Alvarez has seven career submission wins but none
since 2010. He’s also lost twice via submission. Poirier has six
career submission wins but none since 2012. He also one submission
loss. My own feeling it the
edge goes to Eddie based on his wrestling.
Training
camps Poirier is a long time member of ATT. He’s got elite coaches
and elite training partners all around and had many of them getting
ready to fight on this card. Alvarez’s
head coach is Mark Henry he also trains with Ricardo Almedia. He also
has some very good training partners including Frankie Edgar. I am
saying it’s equal both guys are working with great teams.
The biggest X-Factor to me is how Alvarez responds coming off a loss.
His history has been when he losses he comes back very strong. When
he was submitted by Aoki he than rolled off seven wins in a row with
six finishes winning and defending the Bellator Title. When he lost
to Chandler he came back to knockout Aoki in a rematch and than KO
Pitbull in the rematch and regain the title beating Chandler. Than he
lost to Cerrrone in his UFC debut but follows that up beating
Melendez, Pettis and RDA in a row. I think he’s going to come back
real strong and make it clear “That guy at UFC 205 was not Eddie
Alvarez.”
So
I am picking Eddie Alvarez. Now I won’t be shocked if Dustin
Poirier wins. I think just
simple fact is Eddie is better in every area. I think this could be a
thrilling fight I think it will be close enough it’s a split
decision but Alvarez's hand goes up.
Saturday, April 15, 2017
UFC on Fox Johnson vs. Reis Picks
Back on the big fox
network. We have a chance at history the pound for pound king looks
to tie a record. Two top straweights battle in a key fight. The man
who is viewed as the uncrowned champion in the middleweight division
faces off with a dangerous young challenger with the power to derail
his dreams. And finally one of the UFC’s longest stars faces a
younger fighter looking and needing to make an impact.
UFC Flyweight
Championship Demetrious Johnson (c) 25-2-1 MMA 12-1-1 UFC vs. Wilson
Reis 22-6 MMA 6-2 UFC- Mighty
Mouse Johnson is the best fighter in the world today. He is on a long
winning streak he is the only man ever hold the Flyweight title. No
other champion is even close to the number of defenses
he’s made. He has won against just about every single type of
fighter in every single way you can imagine.
He has made it clear his goal is
to break Anderson Silva’s record for most UFC title defenses. Well
now he’s on the verge of tying that record. But
last time he had a fairly rough fight. It was in December and he was
matched up with Tim Elliot the winner of the most recent season of
the Ultimate Fighter. Its
one of those fights where everyone thought he
was going to win easy and win early. Sometimes different factors play
into a fight. Elliot entered that fight no real pressure he’s a
very large fighter for the division go a very awkward stand up style
and a good ground game. A few times Elliot manged to get DJ
in trouble the fight went the full five rounds. Still though Johnson
clearly won that fight and retained his title.
Reis at one point booked to challenge DJ for the title. However an
injury to DJ along with the fact the winner of TUF was supposed to
challenge for the flyweight belt it was called off. So his only real
option was to keep fighting and keep winning. His last fight was in
February at UFC 208 he dominated a fight Ulka Sasaki. He used great
grappling to control the fight. Before that he fought at UFC 201
easily submitting Hector Sandvol in under two minutes. He’s on a
three fight winning streak. And mainly thanks to the benefit of being
a fresh name he’s getting a title shot because DJ has already beat
Benvidez twice.
The striking aspect clearly favors Johnson. Might Mouse has five
career knockouts he’s never been knocked in his career. We have
only ever seen him rocked a few times that was against Brad Pickett
and later against John Dodson two very heavy handed guys. Pickett was
very early on in his career and Dodson has great speed that lets him
catch little openings. A big key to Johnson’s success has been his
clean technique. He’s not wild and looping he keeps a good guard.
And he has power that can hurt people. Reis has never scored a knock
out in his MMA career not even a ground and pound TKO. Now part of
that is he is a very submission based fighter, so he’s not looking
to strike. That said he’s been knocked out twice although both of
those were back in 2011. He’s got a very wild technique when he
does strike. The longer this fight is a kickboxing battle it favors
the champion.
Reis has already called his shot saying he is going to submit
Johnson. Reis has a BJJ blackbelt and in MMA he has ten career
submission wins. He also never lost a MMA fight via submission.
Johnson is no slouch when it comes to the submission game. He has
nine career submission wins and he also has never submitted in a
fight. Often in a situation like this the better wrestler gets the
edge. And I think Johnson is the better wrestler. This very well
could simply come down to who can keep the fight int eh position they
want. Johnson may not even look for a take down but instead keep it
standing and make the BJJ a non factor. Again advantage Johnson.
Looking at training Johnson is a student of Matt Hume at AMC
Pankration. Hume has been with DJ a long time a case of two of near
perfect student teacher relationship. Hume is an expert in every
facoit of the game and Johnson works so hard to learn he can from
him. Together they might have just made the perfect fighter. Reis
trains with Alliance MMA and head coach Eric Del Fierro. That is
another top gym in MMA Del Fierro is an elite coach who has worked
with some of the best (mainly Dominick Cruz) and he actually has a
win as a corner man over DJ and Hume. I gotta say toss up in terms of
coaching you don’t get much better than Hume and Del Fierro.
To me the biggest X-Factor is no pressure on Reis. Johnson's not just
excepted to win he’s expected in win easy. DJ is the one chasing
history put a you have to wonder if “The champagne is already on
ice.” And DJ talks about knowing he’s not a huge draw so he has
to keep winning. Reis meanwhile no one thinks he can win no thinks he
will win. But Chris Weidman UFC 162, Holly Holm UFC 193, Michael
Bisping UFC 199. All fighters that people were going “Oh good for
you getting a title shot… Hope you don’t get to embarrassed.”
End of the day thought I’m not picking against Demetrius Johnson
unless I see something really special from the guy he is facing. I
think Reis is a good fighter but I don’t think he’s good enough
to be the man that topples Johnson. I think Johnson will keep this
fight standing and that will allow him to get the win. I won’t be
shocked if Johnson knocks him out. DJ wins he ties the record and
they set him up to break it sometime during international fight week.
Rose Namajunas
5-3 MMA 3-2 UFC vs. Michelle Waterson 14-4 MMA 2-0 UFC- The
Straweight Division has belonged to one person since the start of it.
With Joanna Champion having already beaten so many top contenders it
really just take one or two strong wins to be in the spot to
challenge for the title. We
also have a pretty good idea who the upper level talent is. These two
both count as upper level. Waterson last fought in December in the
main event of the last Fox card. She
was paried up with Paige VanZant. Now Waterson saw that fight as the
first step into becoming a superstar in her own right. She stayed
lose and calm the whole weekend went in there got the fight to the
ground and easily submitted PVZ. Namajunas
last fought in July at UFC 201 she was matched up with Karolina
Kowalkiewicz. And she
couldn’t get anything going. Kowalkiewicz outstruck the fight never
really got to the mat and she lost a clear decision. The good news
for Namajunas she is young has tons of potential and if she can beat
Waterson she is right back where she was before UFC 201.
This
could be a very fun fight to watch when it comes to striking. Both
women have backgrounds in traditional martial arts and throw some
different strikes than the usual MMA fighters you see. Nieher fighter
is really known for there power. Namajunas has never scored a
knockout in her MMA career. Waterson
only has three. In terms of who is more technical I say Waterson.
Namajunas can be pretty technical but she has a tendency to get a bit
wild when looking to press the action. To me this comes down to the
old eye ball test. Waterson just appears to be a good enough counter
striker that I think Namajuans falls into the same kind of trap she
was in vs. Kowalkiewicz.
Both
fighters have a great deal of talent on the ground. Namajunas has
four career submission wins and has never lost via submission.
Waterson has nine submission
wins with two tap out losses. Again
it feels like Waterson is more techila. But I think Namajuna will
have an edge wrestling wise. She’s bigger. Waterson mostly has
fought at atomweight. So I think it’s a slight edge to Namajunas.
Looking
at training camps Waterson
is a long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. She has a great well of
coaches and training partners. She’s been there for years had a lot
of success with them. Namajunas is a member of the Grudge Training
Center in Colorado. That camp is run by Trevor Wittman. Its another
very good camp Wittman has a great reputation. I am giving the edge
to Waterson based on more over all success of the camp. To compare it
to the NFL it’s like having Bill Bellicheck as your head coach your
calling him the best no matter who he faces.
So
the X-Factors the biggest one to me will be mental state and
emotional reactions. Namajuna is know as a very emotional fighter.
That can be a good thing but
we have seen get overwhelmed. Waterson you never really see her get
lose her composure. If this fight doesn’t got Waterson’s way
early you feel she will go back to her corner get advice and still be
able to win. If this fight doesn’t go Namajuans way early on she
may be shot for the whole night. Advantage Waterson. The other
x-factor is potential to get better. Namajunas
is only 24 years old she’s only had a eight career fights 11 if you
count TUF 20, she can still get better. Her coaches and others in the
sport have said she’s still got tons of potential. Waterson is 31
she has 18 career fight in MMA she’ pretty locked into who she is
as a fighter at this point. So if we see jump in talent or skills it
will be from Namajunas so that is a advantage for Thug Rose.
When
it comes to the pick I am have to go with Michelle Waterson. I just
feel she got all the things that Namajunas struggles with. She’s
technical, she very well rounded, she doesn’t get overly emotional.
I think this fight goes all three rounds and its Waterson’s hand
going up in the end.
Ronaldo Souza
24-4 1NC MMA 7-1 UFC vs. Robert Whittaker 17-4 MMA 8-2 UFC- There
is no such thing as a risk free fight. For Jacare Souza he’s the
man many view as the best middleweight in the world in order to get a
title shot he’s got to keep winning.
For Robert Whittaker he’s made himself a true contender. A win here
though sends the message he should the one cutting the line. Souza
last fought in February at
UFC 208. He easily destroyed Tim Boestsch. Got him in a submission
hold and nearly tore his arm off. He’s now back on a two fight
winning streak with two first round finishes Whittaker last fought in
November at a UFC Fight Night. It was his first main event it was in
his home town country of Australia and
he was paried up with Derek Brunson. Early on he got rocked but
manged to recover he started to land and knocked out Brunson.
The
standup numbers favor Whittaker. He started in Karate at young age
and has eight career
knockout wins. The only
person to every knock him out was Wonderboy Thompson when he was
fighting at welterweight. Souza
only has three knockout wins
and he’s been knocked out twice. We also saw him get rocked in two
other losses. That said
Jacare has developed some very good standup. So
I will give the edge Whittaker but Jacare can do damage. This
could be a very close fight standing up. Jacare does have power its
just he’s such expert at submissions he doesn’t really go for
them he hurts you and takes you down. So slight edge to Whittaker.
There
is no mistaking who has the edge in grappling Souza is one of the
greatest Brazil Jiu-Jitsu competers ever. He
won numerous world championships in BJJ tournaments all over the
world. In MMA he has won via submission seventeen times. He has never
been submitted in a MMA fight. Whitaker has five career submission
wins and only been submitted once. But he is just not the level of
grappler that Souza is. Souza
also has very strong wrestling. Every second they tied up Whittaker
is in the danger zone. Once this fight goes to the ground he’s got
bust his ass to back up.
Looking at training Souza is member of X-Gym down in Brazil he also
works with Blackhouse and trains with guys like Anderson Sivla, The
Nogeria Brothers. Robert Whittaker is works with PMA Super Martial
Arts in Austrila. No contest who the better gym is. Whittaker is the
only big name that gym has produced so far.
Looking at the X-Factors I think the biggest one is the look ahead
factor. Whittaker is still coming up the ranks. Each fight has been
the biggest fight of his career. Souza fees slighted by the UFC.
Could he already thinking “I’ll step in if GSP gets hurt” or
already planning to call for a rematch with Romero or Rockhold? If he
does he could leave himself open.
That
said I’m picking Souza. You legit can say his is the best
middleweight in the world. His lone loss in the UFC had some stuff go
on and it was razor close. I
don’t think Whittaker has a huge edge standing up and outside of a
quick knockout it's impossible to keep Jacare off him and not have it
go to the ground. Whittaker
can be a champion someday but I think this is one of those fights
where he learns how far he has to go. I think Jacare get in there
drags Whittaker to the ground and submits him in one round.
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