UFC on Fox Picks

Right now the light heavyweight title picture is a little unclear. It appear Jon Jones will get the chance to regain the championship. But the rest of division's pecking order can shake out. Big card live on Fox.

Anthony Johnson 20-5 MMA 11-5 UFC vs. Ryan Bader 20-4 MMA 12-4 UFC- Two very similar guys. Both are bigger Light Heavyweights, started as wrestlers but developed into power strikers. Most importantly both men want a shot at the title. Ryan Bader last fought in October at UFC 192 he beat former champion Rashad Evans. Pretty one sided fight Evans talked a lot but it was Bader that fought the more effective fight. He is now on a fight fight winning streak. Bader feels and he has a legit argument he should have gotten title shot. But he saw DC get the shot at the Vacant title when Jones got in trouble than he sees Guffston get the first shot at DC. So you got a very motivated Ryan Bader who has shown great improvement the last few years. Johnson last fought in September at UFC 191 took less than two rounds to knock out Jimi Manuwa. Johnson lost the vacant title fight against Cormier. A win over Bader cuts his road back to the title down for him.

Striking it's the power of Rumble Johnson vs. A much more technical Ryan Bader. Like I said Johnson has the knockout power. Out of 20 win he has 14 via knockout and five of those are at 205 lbs. He's got one shot power. He connects and guys go out. Bader early on was a very powerful striker and prone to get into brawls just look at the Trexiura fight. He only has 6 career knockout win. Part of that is due to the fact that in recent years he has become more controlled in his striking. He waits to pick his shots and would rather land combos than that one big shot. Johnson's lone TKO loss was due to eye injury he's never been KO'ed with a strike. Bader has been KO'ed twice and famously he got rocked against Tito Ortiz. But again part of that is due to him being wild. This isn't the guy that charged into a punch from Machida. I do have to give Johnson edge though in striker. Even when you are smart fighting a guy like Rumble it just take that one punch.

Both men started as wrestlers Johnson was a champion at the Junior college level. Bader went to Arizona State. He was a very accomplished wrestler winning three Pac 10 titles, was a multi time All American. Neither guy really uses there wrestling much in MA. Johnson talked about working more wrestling after his loss to Cormier. But we haven't seen him face a good wrestler since that fight as Manauwa has no real wrestling background. We know the game plan to beat Johnson at 205. DC showed it take him down make him carry you and wear him out. And flat on your back you can't do much striking. And the number don’t' look good for Johnson he has one career submission and four of losses saw him tap out. Bader has four career submission wins he has tapped out twice. But I give Bader the edge in the ground game.

Big X-Factor is cardio. In his losses its the same story for Johnson. It goes to the later rounds he starts to tire out. Epically in Cormier loss he was taken down and couldn’t do anything off his back. He was exhausted and you saw him break. Also Johnson appears to be that has of fighter that puts everything into every punch and kick. Now that works great when you connect and knock the guy out. But if you miss or the guy can take it. It leaves you with nothing. Bader he isn’t' going all out anymore. But that lets you have more in the later rounds. Big key this is a five round fight. With Johnson any shot can end this fight. But I just see Bader keeping his distance looking for his spot getting a takedown and this fight dragging on. I think Bader wins.

Josh Barnett 34-7 MMA 6-2 UFC vs. Ben Rothwell 35-9 MMA 5-3 UFC- I would call both men veteran fighters but that makes them sound to young and inexperienced. Between them I do think they have fought for every major MMA company ever. Both guys also have that rebel streak in them. And both can make one final run at the title. Rothwell last fought in June at a UFC fight night he submitted Matt Mitrione in less than two minutes. He's now won three fights in a row after being a win for a loss guy in his UFC career. He was supposed to fight Stipie Miocic but Stipie got hurt and because of the rankings and the way thing fell it was Rothwell that had to wait why Stipie got a fight with Arlovski. Barnett last fought in September at a UFC Fight Night. Took him all five rounds but he beat up Roy Nelson pretty good and got a unanimous decision win. That was his first fight in nearly two years.

Numbers give Rothwell the striking advantage. He has twenty career knockout wins. He's always been known as a powerful striker. He stunned a lot o people by knockout out Overeem not that long ago. He's also only lost via knockout four times. The last one came in 2009 to Cain Velasquez. Barnett openly said he likes to bang while he's only gotten eight career knockout win. He's not easy to knockout though. Only two of those losses are via knockout. One was to Perdo Rizzio a very dangerous striker. The other was to Travis Browne and you have to remember Barnett went for a takedown but left his head exposed got caught with a series of hard elbows. Neither guy is really know to be super tight with there technique. Like I said Rothewell has the advantage.

Grappling advantage goes to Barnett. The War Master has twenty career submission wins. He's also won a BJJ championship in the black belt division. But he's not really a BJJ guy. He's a catch wrestler which gives him a different style of grappling and submissions than most guys. On his record he only has two submission losses. Nietehr was due to a submission hold making him tap. One was he got hurt and than in the other he was trapped under Cro Cop and getting punched and gave up to avoid more damage. Rothwell does have 12 career submission win with only two submission losses. It could get interesting if it goes to the ground. But I think on the ground Barrnett will have the edge. I also think Barnett will be more willing to try a takedown over a Rothwell who might just go nuts wanting to strike.

Both guys train with smaller teams. Barrnett with Erik Paulson as his head trainer. Also the last few years Barrnett has begun training and corning other fighters more. A lot of people have said that has been good for him. Its part of why he started fighting again after a long layoff. Rothwell currently trains out of Rothwell MMA a gym he started in his home town. But since making that change and focusing more on himself instead of the usual big team big name gym he's turned his career around. This is a very close honestly I could see it going either way. Give me Barrnett I think he's just a better fighter fought bigger names. We have seen Rothwell have real letdowns.

UFC Boston Fallout

The Comeback has been completed. Over four years after his final title defense and two years after being stripped of the title Dominick Cruz is once again the UFC Bantamweight champion. Cruz had made it clear “ring rust doesn't exist it's just mental weakness.” And he appears to be right. If you showed someone the fight with Johnson without telling them the date and than showed them the fight with Dillashaw they would think they took place just months apart. Effectually Cruz is right back where he was in 2011. He is the champion, one of the pound for pound bests with a style no one seems able to figure out.

The In Ring Action- Most expected a high paced main event given both bantamweights use of foot work. It was a close fight and its easy to see why Dillishaw and his supporters believe hie should have won. But IMO Cruz won. He was much more effective. Cruz always stayed on his toes always moving. Dillishaw fell into the age old trap of hunting the knockout. Dillishaw got away from the very footwork that had been key to his rise to the title. What's amazing is Cruz looked just like he did in his 2011 when he beat both Faber and Mighty Mouse Johnson. Younger fight should take note and learn from Cruz he might be the perfect example of what fighter should be. The Co-Feature had big potential but turned into a grind it out fest. Eddie Alvarez made his name on bloody wild brawls. While Anthony Pettis made his name on amazing highlight reel striking. But its hard to fault Pettis for the way he fought. Pettis struggles in wrestling exchanged his three losses coming in were all in fight where he was forced to wrestle. Fans may have hated it but it's the old issue with any fighter to win or to entertain. The plus side for Pettis he looked better in the wrestling exchanges. Rather that was due to who he was facing or the work of Izzy Martinez is yet to be seen.

HOLLY SHIT WHAT HAPPED YOU EYE! Is no doubt something Matt Mitrone head a few times after his fight with Travis Browne. Love or hate either heavyweight you can't deny the two pokes made a difference. Early on it seemed Mitrone was in control. Not helping was rather poor referring during the fight. When Mitrone was poked a second time the referee didn’t stop the action and give him time to recover. With the kind of power Browne has facing him perfectly healthy is a risk not being able to see in one eye is just asking to be KO'ed. Fransciso Trinaldo scored a strong win over veteran Ross Pearson with five wins in a row Trinadlo might be looking at top ranked fighter next time out. On the prelims Patrick Cote and Ed Herman two of the UFC's longest tenured fighters managed to score good wins. With Herman it will be interesting to see how he does at 205 since his win came over Tim Bosetsch another 185 pouder fighter up a weight class. Cote has come a long way from the guy that was a under sized light heavyweight with heavy hands.

Biggest Winners-

Dominick Cruz- Cruz talked a big game leading up to fight with Dillishaw. He claimed rust didn't exists, the he was better than Dillishaw. Now he's proven himself right. It can't be said enough how perfect his footwork was. He became the first man to ever take Dillishaw down something he did three times. The comeback story and his new found ability to talk won over fans. While he won't have the same level of promotion that Connor McGregor big fight are out there for Cruz. A third fight with Faber and potential rematch with Johnson both could be big fights in the months a head. Of course the question is how is his foot.

Urijah Faber- He can now and has already declared “I told you so.” In Dillishaw's first fight out of Alpha Male he lost the title. And with his rival Cruz back as champion Faber is now firmly back in line for a title shot. You can argue Faber hasn't looked good in recent fights. But he's won and from a business standpoint a rubber match can do big money.

Biggest Losers

TJ Dillishaw- By leaving Alpha Male the now former champion left the door open for major criticism. Of course he could have chosen Alpha Male and stopped working with Ludwig still lost to Cruz and have people going “he should have stayed with Bang.” That said it was clear Dillishaw got to caught up in the attempts to knock Cruz out. He got flat footed and over committed to power shots. Not helping has been Dillishaw's reaction to losing which seems to be the best way to have fans turn on you.

What comes Next

For Cruz as I already said the two fights that make the most sense are either a third Faber fight or a rematch with Demetrious Johnson. Me personally I lean towards the rematch with Johnson. The two fought in 2011 in a entertaining fight. That wound up being DJ's last loss as after that the UFC started the flyweight division. Since than Johnson has become a top pound for pound fighter on many list. It seems n one at flying weight can even touch him. As for TJ Dillishaw I say now is the perfect time to do a fight with Faber. The story writes itself. The two men were very close only to have issues in training end the relationship. Also both men want a title shot but don't really have a clear cut claim. Faber is on a winning streak but has looked sluggish against less competition.

Eddie Alvarez called for a title. To his credit he has two wins over Melendez and Pettis who are former champions. The problem is both wins are via split decision and I can't see many fans wanting to Alvarez after the wrestle heavy fight he just had. I see two options. One is Benson Henderson another former world champion who has had success at welterweight but hasn't committed to staying there full time. The hold up could be the fact Henderson is a free agent and yet to resign with the UFC. The other option Khabib Nurmagomedov. Khabib is undefeated and hold a win over the current champion. However a series of injures has slowed his career he hasn't fought in nearly two years. However his record would be great on TV.

UFC Fight Night Picks

Last year the UFC and Fox Spots held a great show during NFL Playoff Weekend. This year we got a PPV level card. The Main Event features a great world champion vs. the man that never lost the title. A former Lightweight Champion taking a Champion in other promotions and a damn good heavyweight clash.

UFC Bantamweight Championship T.J. Dillashaw (c) 11-2 MMA 8-2 UFC vs. Dominick Cruz 20-1 MMA 3-0 UFC- In boxing you often hear the term lineal champion. That is when ever a world champion is for what ever reason is stripped or vacates his title. Dominick Cruz is the lineal champion of the UFC Bantamweight Division. He was awarded the title when the WEC was absorbed into the UFC he than suffered an injury and just had setback after setback. Two ACL replacement, a torn groin. After being unable to fight for more than two years the UFC stripped him of the title and promoted than Interim champion Renan Barao to full champion. Of course it was Dillashaw that than stunned the world and beat Barao easily to win the title in 2014 just a few months after Cruz was stripped. But now Cruz has his chance to get his belt back and for Dillashaw it's the chance to show the world he is the true champion. There is some back story here given Dillashaw's former team and there history with Cruz. Also lots of trash talk. Plus the fact both fighter are very similar.

Cruz last fought in September of 2014 that his first fight since 2011. He was matched up with than number five ranked Takeya Mizugaki. It took him just over a minute to knock him out. Cruz's lone loss was way back in 2007 he was a little over matched vs. Faber at the time. People have to remember before he got hurt he was dominate champion and he didn't just get lucky he was looking great vs. Mizugaki and than knocked him out. But he again couldn’t' stay healthy he suffered an ACL tear in the other leg missed all of 2015. Dillashaw only fought once in 2015 that was in July in the rematch with Barao. There had always been the question from the first fight was he lucky? Did Barao over look him? Could he do it again? And he could do it again. He dominated Barao beat up him up badly again. Barao the man we once called the best bantamweight in the world looked like a new guy guy doing hard sparing for the first time. Finally in the forth Dillashaw hit a 22 punch combination. You don't do 22 combos in video games.

The stand up game should be very interesting. Both these guys relay a lot on foot work. Movement is the big key in there game plan. We have often heard people say “Dillashaw is Cruz 2.0” or Cruz saying “You stole my game plan and won.” But there are some key differences. Dillashaw is more of an offensive based fighter. He's coming forward looking to get an angle and land outside the pocket of the fight. That said because he can be very aggressive we have seen him get clipped a few times. Cruz on the other hand more a defensive fighter more of a counter striker. He's able to protect himself better but also we don't see him score the big knockouts. Cruz is also more a straight boxer mostly using punches. Dillashaw a student of Bang Ludwig uses kicks more often. In terms of power clear edge to Dillashaw he's got six career knockouts in his career including his last three. He's only been knocked out once. Cruz has seven career knockouts including his last fight. But that his first TKO since 2008 that wasn't a doctor's stoppage. Cruz has never been knocked out. I will give the edge to Dillashaw, the power, the more diverse style.

Both men have wrestling background. Now Cruz was a community college wrestler. Dillashaw actually went to Cal State Fullerton had a lot of success in the Pac 10. That said Cruz has shown to keep up with great wrestler very well including Faber. Dillashaw has a good habit of mixing in his wrestling. Second fight than Barao he wrestled a lot and wore him out. In terms of submission not a whole lot to write about with Cruz. His lone loss was due to Faber via submission. He also only has one submission win. Not likely he will use a submission but he's good enough to not get caught. Dillashaw has never been submitted. He only has three submission wins. Again not very likely. From what I have seen its going to be a draw.

Looking at the X-Factors. Both men have had some issues with there training camps. Cruz longtime member of Alliance MMA. Recently Alliance had some guys leave all for Power MMA. Not clear how much that will directly affect Cruz. Often guys have certain guys at the gym they regular spar with. Guys they really trust. But Dillashaw has made a huge change. He left his long time home gym of Alpha Male in Sacramento to go to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado. Now the plus side is he's back to working regularly with Duane “Bang” Ludwig the striking coach that took him to the next level. But Bang is not at Elevation he's at his own school so it's not like Bang is back to being a head coach. Also the question is will the move affect him. Alpha Male is a top level gym high level talent through out to spar and train with. Good coaches. Bang can take care of his stand up but what about grappling, strength and conditioning. Elevation is new camp with some good guys and UFC talent but we are yet to see it become Alpha Male. So coaching and training it appear Cruz has an advantage.

I am picking Dillashaw to win it and I think he scores another big knockout in the later rounds. My main reason is Cruz's long layoff. I know he went through a camp and he looked great last time out. But I would rather have the active fighter. We don't know Cruz will reaction if he gets hit, if he get dragged into the later rounds. Also Dillashaw is still getting better.

Anthony Pettis 18-3 MMA 5-2 UFC vs. Eddie Alvarez 26-4 1-1 UFC- This is one of those fight that's been kicked around for a while. Fans have wanted to see it. There was a real argument or thought they could have fought for the title not that long ago. Now it appears they are fishing for a title shot. Pettis last time out was about as bad a night any world champion has ever had in the UFC. It was March at UFC 185 he faced off with Rafael dos Anjos. Early on he got caught with a big punch caused major swelling in his eye. He never really got into the fight he took hard kicks and punches all night was taken down. Even in the corner his trainer was telling him they needed to do something big. By the end of the fight it was clear he was beaten man. Alvarez in June at UFC 188. He faced off with Gilbert Melendez in a fight people had wanted to see for a long time. He scored a decision win and had a very freaky moment. His noise was apparently broken in the first round. During the break he blew the noise and it caused one of his eyes to swell shut. That fight was the classic example of doing enough to get the judges to mark your name.

Both these men are known for there stand up games. Pettis one of the most amazing strikers. Numerous highlight reel moments. Pettis has seven career knockouts and never been knocked out. Really outside of the RDA fight he's never taken that much damage standing up. He's got good punching but most know for his kicking. He got good kickboxing and a Taekwondo blackbelt. Alvarez is the Philadelphia fighter. He comes forward he will take punches. Most fight he winds up bleeding and bruised. Power actually favors Alvarez he's got 14 knockouts and only been knocked out once. Pettis appears to be the more talented and technical striker. But his last two fight he's wanted to counter fight and come off the cage. And I think that cost him. He took more damage against Melendez than he should have and got badly beaten up vs. RDA. That said with Pettis has great hand and even better kicks. Alvarez needs this to be a brawl. But I will give the edge Pettis.

Pettis' has a very underrated ground game. He's got eight career submission wins. He's the only man to stop Gilbert Melendez when he tapped him out. He also tapped out Benson Henderson when he won the UFC title. That also said we have seen him struggle when someone can pressure him with wrestling. That's how Clay Guida beat him and RDA mixed in the takedowns very well. That said he's never been submitted. Alvarez has seven career submissions wins but hasn't had one since 2010. He's also lost three fight via submissions. Going to give the edge to Pettis he's not just good on the top but very good from the bottom.

Both fighter have made changes to there training camps. Pettis remains with Roufus sport but has also begun working with Izzy Martinez who is a great wrestling coach and works with both Jon Jones and Holly Holm among others. He basically felt after the loss to RDA he needded a wrestling coach the same level Duke Roufus is in the striking game. Even when's back in Milwaukee he's got guys like Ben Askren to drill with. Alvarez had spent the last few years with the Blackzillians team. Recently he moved back to Philadelphia. I think that means he's back working with his original team. That can have benefits the team and camp is more built around you. The guys coaching really know you. On the flip side you don't have the same level of fighters to train with. Gotta give the advantage to Pettis. He's always been a Roufus guy and he's got a great team to work with.

I'm picking Pettis to win and I think he rebounds with a submission win. You feel like if Alvarez has a chance to win he's got to make a brawl. But even as a brawl Pettis can win it. If this winds up being more technical or more about point fighting that Pettis has the skills to easily control it. Plus this goes to the ground I can see him submitting Alvarez. I think Pettis gets the win.

Travis Browne 17-3-1 MMA 7-3-1 UFC vs. Matt Mitrione 9-4 MMA and UFC- Wasn’t' all that long ago Browne was on a 3 fight winning streaks having knocked out Gonzaga, Overeem, and Barnett. Than he ran into Fabrico Werdum and lost a very one sided fight. He went from 3 wins in a row to being 1-2 in his last three fights. Issues outside the cage have also slowed him down. Mitrione always been seen as a great athlete but he's never become a truly great fighter. He gets a lot of wins but seems there is always that glaring hole in his game. Right now we know who the upper level of the division are the winner gets into that the loser faces becoming below a gate keeper. Browne last fought at UFC 187 in May. He suffered a KO loss to Andre Arlovski. That was one of the greatest fights ever. Early on Arlovski hurt Browne but than Browne landed that one big shot and dropped Arlovski. Browne though was still so out of it he lost position and than Arlvoski finished the fight. Mitrione last fought in June at UFC Fight Night 68. He was submitted by Ben Rothwell.

Both men have big time knockout power. Browne has 13 career knockout wins. He's got very heavy hands. But we have also seen him do very well KO'ing guys with elbows. He has been knocked out twice. One of those was after he suffered an injury and couldn't move the other was to Arlovski. Mitrione has 8 career knockouts. He also only has one career knockout loss. I think the edge goes to Browne he's not out a more impressive list of guys and has a reach advantage. Also I think he's got a little better technical striker.

Neither guy really known for there ground game. Browne has two career wins via submission. His last one coming way back at UFC 145 in 2012. Browne has never lost via submission and he has faced guys with good ground games. The most notable was current champion Werdum. Mitrone has never scored a submission win and he has been submitted twice. Just on the eyeball test he's not really comfortable. Don't think it will be much of a factor will give the edge to Browne. My pick is Travis Browne. I think his size and power will be the key.

UFC 195 and Rizin Fallout

Two huge shows on New Years Eve weekend. One featured the return of a legend and attempted to channel the spirit of the long dead Pride FC. The other saw two saw two throw back fighters in a fight many thought had to be exciting. What worked what didn't? Who made an impression and did Condit get screwed

The In Ring Action- I will get this right out of the way I did not like RIZIN show. I was never a big Pride fan and honestly resent the rose colored glassed people look at it with. Seeing Sakruba was a truly sad fight I hate to see. The once great fighter now a mere shell of his former self unable to do anything against a younger fighter in his prime. The tournament was clearly set up so King Mo could win easy. And the main event or Breakfast with Fedor was a total joke. His opponent clearly had no idea what to do on the ground and it gave Fedor an easy win. And lets not even start with the womans fight featuring an untrained pro wrestler who was clumsy pro wrestler and a freak show fight with a washed up Sumo Wrestler dong it for Money and a guy known to throw fights. The bad defiantly outweighed the good.

UFC 195 on the other hand was a truly amazing show. (Yeah go a head call me a UFC fanboy. Do you call fans that would watch NFL football over the Arena bowl NFL zombies?) Often in fights hyped like the main event with two known strikers like Lawler and Condit the fight is a let down. Instead this fight exceed your wildest dreams. Honestly no break down or recap can do it justice. Buy the replay if you didn't see it live. The fight was amazing. Condit hurt Lawler early but as has been the case in his recent fights Lawler came back strong. We might have seen the single best round of the year on the second day of the year. Lawler hurt Condit time and again but TBK never fell. The two men ended the fight trading before collapsing into the cage. In the end two judges gave it to Lawler and he retained his title. But there was no loser in this fight. A lot of people will argue the decision. I myself had it scored for Condit. And the numbers point to Condit as he threw and landed more strikes. However the fact remains the fight was close. It appeared Lawler was landing the much harder strikes. In a system where the fight is scored round by round Lawler did enough to win.

In the semi main event Stipe Miocic took less than a minute to snap Andrei Arlovski's winning streak. To the shock of many Arlovski rebounded his career and was on the verge of getting another UFC title shot. But Miocic was a man on the mission after being told point blank he lacked the popularity to get a UFC title shot Miocic went right out. With hard accurate punches Miocic got the job done and than ran across the cage to yell at Dana White to give him a shot. If the event had a theme it was come from behind submission wins. On the pre-lims Michael McDonald fighting for the first time in over two years looked extremely rusty and easy picking for Masanori Kanehara. But McDonald escaped a submission and locked one in for the win. In the first PPV card fight Tony Sims was in controll early on against Abel Trujillo only get caught in guillotine choke. Diego Brando once again found himself in control early on only to face. Brian Oregeta manged to pull guard and get the triangle lock for the win. Two other fights worth highlighting were the welterweight fight between Albert Tumernov and Lorenz Larking. Also the fight pass fight with Dustin Poirier and Joseph Duffy.

Biggest Winners

Robbie Lawler- Why there will no doubt be debate about the decision end of the day Lawler retained his championship. Its an overused term “He gets stronger as the fight goes on.” But for Lawler it might be true. When he won the title it was a strong attack late that secure the win, at UFC 189 he entered down on the score cards needing a finish and smashed McDonald's face once again to keep it. Once again at UFC 195 he needed the fifth round. Once again Lawler went on the attack late. He caught Condit with shot that would have finished many fighters. Fans were often critical for GSP's title defenses finding them boring. Even people that disagree with the decisions love watching Lawler fight.

Carlos Condit- It was a championship effort from Condit. This was the kind of fight fans will be talking about years and years down the line. And many will debate Condit should have won. While Condit has talked about retiring there is still a good chance for a rematch. Condit made history with this fight and maybe that is greater than being champion.

Stipie Miocic- At long last Miocic got his big win. In his first UFC Main Event he was upset by Stefan Struve. In his fight with JDS he fought an exciting fight that he should have won but instead took a decision loss. Why it would be easy to look at Arlovski and say he was a 36 year old that had been KO'ed numerous times. But the man was on a long winning streak having beat legit contenders. Miocic with his wrestling and boxing could be a real challenge for the winner of Werdum and Velasquez.

Biggest Losers

Tyron Woodley- What has been overly reported is “White promised Woodley a title shot.” That isn't true. After Hendricks was unable to fight White said Woodley was most likely next in line. But urged him to fight again since anything could happen. And well anything did. Even on the post fight show with Woodley at the desk, Daniel Cormier had no problem naming others he felt should get a shot first. Woodley seems to want to play the waiting game the problem is he again risks getting passed over. Had he fought he could have made a strong enough case no matter how close 195 was he should get the next shot.

I see a lot of people saying the #UFC should change the way fights are judged. The issue is I don't know if the UFC can change the way it works. Remember the UFC has to deal with AC's and I could see them saying "No we aren't going to let you change the 10 point system."

UFC 195 Picks

What a crazy year 2015 has been for the UFC. Record smashing events. New stars have emerged long dominate champions fell and so many great fights. And they start 2016 with an excellent card that should get it off on the right foot.

UFC Welterweight Championship Robbie Lawler (c) 26-10 NC MMA 11-4 UFC vs. Carlos Condit 30-8 MMA 7-4 UFC- Some fights just make you got OH I WANT TO SEE THAT. This is one of those fights. Lawler the champion that later in life and later in his career have hit his stride and become the man. Condit the long time contender. Former WEC and Interim UFC champion looking to stake his claim. This fight was originally set for UFC 193 but Lawler suffered an injury to his thumb but thankfully the fight stayed together and we get it now. Lawler last fought in July at UFC 189 making his first title defense against Robbie Lawler. That fight was epic I was the fight of the year and it could very well be the greastest fight in UFC if not MMA History. Early on Lawler hurt MacDonald bashed in his noise. Than MacDonald landed a head kick that dazed Lawler. Just back and forth. Going into into the fifth Rory had the title won on the card but Lawler just kept attack and it was to much down went MacDonald and Lawler kept his belt. The only guy to beat Lawler during this UFC run was Johnny Hendricks in a very close fight. Condit last fought in May at a UFC Fight night. He battered Thiago Alves and just shut the dangerous Brazilian down. Condit may not have the greatest recent record but one loss was on an injury the other two were to GSP and Hendricks championship level fighters.

Very good chance someone goes to sleep in this fight These guys have thirty five combined Knockouts. Lawler has 20 career knockouts. Early on his was power puncher but since moving to American Top Team he's added in much more kicks. He used to be a throw it all and hunt the KO guy but now he's a much smarter fighter. He's smart when he goes hard and now he's actually seemingly getting stronger as the fight goes on. Lawler has also only been knocked out once. Condit has 15 career knockouts. He's also been a very good diverse striker he's got excellent Muay Thai makes use of all the weapons. His lone TKO loss was on an injury. He's always been a very smart fighter willing to change his game plan to beat someone. Vs. Kim he was the attacker vs. Diaz he was the counter striker. Tough one to call I will give Lawler the edge in striking but it will be close.

Very different numbers on the ground though. Lawler is from Iowa heart of USA Wrestling started in a very wrestling based camp but it was weakness early on in his career. Part of that was he was such a good striker he would go over board loading up. Lawler only has 1 win via submission and has five career submission losses but his last submission loss was in 2011 and that was to Jacare. In recent fights he's shown much better takedown defense. Condit has great wrestling often used it to mix up and open up strikes. Condit has 13 career submission wins against 3 losses. But his last win via submission was way back in 2008. I will give Condit the edge on the ground but I don't know if he can take or keep Lawler down long enough.

Both men are with elite camps. Lawler is at American Top Team. Since moving down there to Florida he's become such a better fighter. He's game plans are better he looks stronger and in better shape and he works with many great UFC fighters. Condit is a Jackson Winkeljohn fighter the camp he's spent most of his career at. Another elite camp tons of great fighters out there could also help them has been the fact that camp has had a lot of big fight recently. You had Holm, Cerrone and Overeem all trying to peak at the same time. One factor that could hurt Lawler if the fact his long time boxing coach Matt Pena has retired.

This should be an excellent fight. I can't wait to see it. My pick is Lawler. He's been on such a role the last few years. He just look so good. I think his power can shut Condit down the take down defense should be good enough to keep it standing. Condit had some problem lately but still got this shot. I think right now Lawler is the better fighter.

Stipe Miocic 13-2 MMA 7-2 UFC vs. Andrei Arlovski 25-10 1NC MMA 14-4 UFC- It's the embodiment of the next generation vs. older generation. Arlovski who in 2005 won the UFC Heavyweight Championship made a legit claim to be number 1 contender in 2015. Miocic made his MMA debut in 2010 and in five years has become a guy man have pegged as a future world champion. Miocic last fought in May at a UFC Fight Night. He absolutely dominated Mark Hunt. Took him down time and again and just pounded on him. Finally into the fifth round the he got the TKO. He was going to fight Ben Rothwell in October but he suffered an injury and pulled out. Arlovski last fought in September at UFC 191 facing off with Frank Mir. Going into the fight Mir had two consecutive KO's while had three in a row. So fans were hoping for a really exciting barn burner. Instead we got a very conservative fight. Neither guy took much risk. Arlovksi got a decision win. For Alrovoski on a long winning streak a chance to truly stamp his spot as number 1 contender. For Miocic its a chance to win over fans and get a big win over a top contender.

Both these guys are known for there boxing. Arlovksi has always shown great MMA style boxing while Miocic has shown good hands and prior to his MMA career he won the Golden Gloves in his native Ohio. Stipe has nine career knockout wins his lone knockout loss was to Stefan Struve. But he also went toe to toe with JDS beat him up pretty good and manged to not get rocked after taking some hard shots. Arlovski has 17 career KO wins but he's also been knocked out 7 times. Also you gotta factor in Arlvoski is 36 years old and been in a lot of hard fights. Arlovksi is more prone to get wild and just slug away. Micoci seems to be more technical and he will have a three inch reach advantage. I think striking wise I gotta give Micic the edge if he fights smart. With Arlovski he can connect and hurt anyone but if is to wild wild he can also get caught.

Grappling wise both have background. Miocic was a division one wrestler we have seen him mix that in and take guys down to get some ground and pound. He's not much of a submission fighter he's only got one submission win but never been submitted in his career. Arlovski got his start in Sambo.Mimic He archived the rank of Master of Sport. We have seen some great Sambo fighters in the past.archived Now Arlovski also not much of a submission fighter. Only three career submission wins but also never been submitted. Again I'm giving the edge to Micoci because he's more likely to use his wrestling.

The training teams give a huge advantage to Arlovksi. He's with Jackson Winkeljohn. A great camp he's also got a whose who of elite fighters to train with. Miocic fights out of Ohio with Strong Style Fight Team. The only other notability name I can link to that team is Jessica Eye. Don't get me wrong that team has been with Stipie and helped make him a great fighter but the edge has got to go with the guy in New Mexico. Pick wise I'm leaning to Miocic. I think this is when he takes a step forward and truly become a title contender.

UFC Superfight Weekend Fallout

It took three nights thirty four fights sixty eights fighters and thirteen seconds to pull off the biggest weekend in MMA history. Two new champions were crowned potential next title challengers were determined and the entire UFC was shaken up.

The Fights-

UFC 194- There isn't a whole lot to break down about eh main event. It's simple McGregor slipped a punch and landed his own knocked Aldo out in a mere thirteen seconds. We can speculate on how much Aldo was affected by the trash talk and mind games. What we can see is that movement and speed beats brute force. McGregor antics often take away from the fact he is a very talented fighter with an amazing mix of both. Writing my predictions I said Aldo needed to do what he always does pace the fight and land leg kicks. Out of character he went for a big punch early. The very thing that played to McGregor's advantage. In the Co-Main Event Chris Weidman battled Luke Rockhold. Early on Weidman took the back of Rockhold. But the challenger never panicked he manged to take over late and never really let up. The second round saw Rockhold start hitting hard power kicks. When it went to the ground it was all Rockhold. Weidman appeared to be winning the third until an ill timed spinning head kick. Rockhold took him down and punished him. To the shock of many Herb Dean allowed the fight to go on. In the fourth Rockhold took him down again and finished the job. An emotional Rockhold broke down in tears of joy while Weidman slumped.

Once again Yoel Romero wins a fight on a big card and once again a dirty move appeared to have added him. Early on Romero landed a spinning back fist that badly injured Jacare Souza. On auto pilot Souza went for submissions but Romero landed viscous ground and pound. In the second Romero was clearly already tired and Souza went for a takedown only for Romero to grape the fence and land on top. Referee Mark Goddered stood the fight back up but many felt it wasn't enough and that a point should have been taken. Souza did win the third round but it wasn't enough. Maia was Nelson was a classic Damien Maia fight. He controlled potion with his superior grappling skills. Gunnar Nelson got a few reversal but never truly got control.

In the opening contest of the PPV Max Holloway outpointed Jeremy Stephens. Holloway looked great and has been near perfect since his loss to McGregor. In the featured contest of the prelims Urijah Faber won but looked awful badly gassing vs. Frankie Sanez. Honestly if Sanez had thrown more combos he might have won. Tecia Torres finally showed flashed of the excellent fighter we know she can be. Her UFC career has been under whelming at times. Warley Alves and Leonardo Santos both scored impressive finishes.

The Ultimate Fighter Finale- Frankie Edgar made his Featherweight debut against Aldo and lost a very close fight since than he's chased a rematch. He's watched this year as McGregor was granted a title shot in part due to his mouth and Mendes getting an interim title shot over him. Edgar has always had good boxing but isn't know for power. Managing to land a perfect hook he dropped Chad Mendes. For Mendes the loss is a huge set back. Ryan Hall smoothed Artem Lobov with the Russian Hammer seeming like he was looking for one perfect shot instead of combinations. An illegal upkick might as been the difference in Tony Ferguson vs. Edson Barboza but Ferguson got the win. All night appeared to the better fight. Evan Dunham manged to outpace Joe Lauzon. Lauzon seemed a step to slow and behind Dunham all night. After a rough couple of years Dunham has had a great 2015 with three big wins.

UFC Fightnight- For Paige VanZant she finally ran into the fighter she simply couldn't out muscle or out work. Rose Namajuanes like PVZ loves to push the pace but she brought a level of technical skill that the VanZant lacks. Namajuanes dominated the fight outstirking and time and again trapping VanZant in submission. To PVZ's credit it took a lot to break her she kept trying no one would have blamed her for tapping earlier. Namajuanes moves back into title contention while VanZant know knows she needs to learn. In other key fight from the weekend Sage Northcutt battled Cody Pfister. Early on Pfister scored a takedown exposing the very basic ground game of Northcutt. But a some what controversial stand up gave Northcutt new life. In the second round the 19 year old locked in a choke and improved to 2-0.

Biggest Winners

Conor McGregor- Do I really need to explain this? McGregor came to the UFC declared he was something special. Declared he would be champion declared he would easily beat Aldo. And he's done it all. In the many months leading up to this fight McGregor played Aldo perfectly time and again upsetting him getting the champion to act differently that normal. Even the “calm” Aldo this week was different from the normal killer we are used to. Aldo came out head hunting and McGregor made him pay. Had he failed the haters would have pounced instead McGregor silenced them and has made history. He's now a champion and might just wind up being the top PPV act in all of MMA.

Luke Rockhold- When it became clear that Rockhold would be the next challenger to Weidman many fans and analyst got excited. Many were expecting a very close and exciting fight between two great fighters. Many thought Rockhold's advantage was to stay standing and he certainly landed hard powerful kicks. But his dominance on the ground was truly amazing. Repeatedly he managed out grapple and out power the superior wrestler. Post fight Rockhold shed light on struggles in his recent camp with a staff infection that affected his training camp. Rockhold had the talent and skill to dominate the division for years to come.

Frankie Edgar- Many thought a win over Chad Mendes would net Edgar another title shot. Many thought if the fight ended via knockout it would be Mendes KO'ing Edgar. Instead Edgar landed a picture perfect hook to Mendes Jaw. In many ways Edgar is the most intruding match up against McGregor. Edgar has beaten much bigger fighters, he pushes an amazing pace. His boxing and footwork could pose an issue to McGregor. While there reports McGregor might already want to move up reports have suggested Edgar would still get a title shot or fight for the vacant title.

Biggest Losers

Jose Aldo- No matter how much Aldo wants to claim “It wasn't a real fight.” Or his supporters will claim it was a fluke that McGregor could never do that again. The fact remains it happened. And this could be considered the most humiliating loss in combat sports history. For well over a year McGregor mocked and called out Aldo. He got in his face he pestered him, touched him, stole his belt and looked him in the face telling him “Your going to die.” And when Aldo finally got his chance to shut McGregor up he was knocked out and woke up watching McGregor celebrate. Aldo was clearly devastated after the fight and I won't be shocked if he never fight again.

Chad Mendes- Mendes is now 1-3 in his last four fights. You can say the 3 are the elite and one of those losses can on very short notice but the fact remains that is a very poor record. Mendes has also been knocked out in two straight fights. Mendes is now in that difficult spot he's still very good but out of title contention. For some fighters this would be the time to move up or down in weight. Mendes doesn't seem to have that option. He would be a very small lightweight and would have to kill himself to make bantamweight.

Yoel Romero- Romero got the victory but it wasn't a good win. The controversy due to his cage holding reminded everyone of his controversial win over Tim Kennedy. Once again Romero gassed out as the fight went on even though he was clearly trying to conserve energy. One has to wonder if Romero would have anything if he ever had to go to a forth or fifth round epically against someone like Rockhold who can push a pace and punish the body.

Ronald Souza- “I'm always one fight away from title shot...” “If I don't get one after a win at UFC 194 I'm going after Dana White...” Jacare made not effort to hide his frustration with not getting a title shot already. Not that I can blame IMO he was more desrdrtbinh of a title shot than Belfort and had to watch Rockhold leap frog him. And why again you can argue he should have won the fight the judges didn't give it to him. The former Strikeforce champion will now once again have to work his way towards title contention while the road seems short given his past success you just never know

What comes next

At this stage Conor McGregor can pretty much call his own shot. Most people agree if he stays at featherweight he will defend the title against Frankie Edgar. With his footwork and pressure Edgar might be the perfect foil to McGregor. Also Edgar never gets to up or to down meaning the mind games may not work. Of course McGregor has already openly spoke of moving up to Lightweight and Dana White has said he would be given an automatic title shot. I think it will depend on who wins the title fight on Fox. If Cowboy wins than McGregor moves up if Dos Anjos than he fights Edgar.

For Edgar all he can really do it wait. He should get the neck shot at Featherweight. McGregor has said he wants to keep both titles. White said on FS1 that he would have McGregor vacate the title. If the title was vacated Edgar would have to be one of the men fighting for it. If the UFC allows the new champion to keep his title and go after 155 gold and Edgar wants to fight the perfect opponent would be Max Holloway. Holloway is on a long winning streak. At 23 Holloway has the rare mix of youth and experience. But beating Edgar would establish him as true contender.

Jose Aldo made it clear he wants a rematch with McGregor. But that would be an awful idea. Why many are screaming “Ronda gets a rematch so should Aldo.” But those people are comparing apples to oranges. Ronda made a major strategy mistake and than panicked. Aldo fell to a single punch and looked mentally shot. McGregor clearly got to him and I don't think rushing into a rematch is going to help. Aldo needs time away from McGregor to not thing about McGregor or deal with McGreorg's mind games. Watching him after the fight its clear he needs to fight to rebuild his confidence. A perfect option Cub Swanson. They fought back in the WEC with Aldo wining easily. Since than Swanson made himself a top contender but has dropped two in a row. This would be a perfect fight to let Aldo get his footing back.