UFC 192 Picks

The Summer saw a number of changes in the UFC. New champions were crowned but now we start to see if these changes led to new status quos or more changes is coming. UFC 192 will see a first title defense and two fights that could crown the next number one contenders in two divisions.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Daniel Cormier © 16-1 MMA 5-1 UFC vs. Alexander Gustafsson 16-3 MMA 8-3 UFC- Cormier last fought at UFC 187 in May. We all know the story Jon Jones got in trouble was stripped of the title. DC got the fight with Anthony Johnson for the vacant title. First thirty seconds Rumble drops DC with a power punch. But Cormier survived and got past the flurry made it a wrestling match and wore Johnson out. Finally in the third he submitted Johnson and after not winning a NCAA title, not winning an Olympic medal, and not winning the UFC title the first time became the top guy in his weight class. Gustafsson last fought in January. He lost to Rumble Johnson in his home country. It was a huge fight on Fox with the number 1 contender status on the line. Rumble knocks him out in the first round. But post fight footage shows that he was headbutted early on and well you do wonder how much that affected him. And even with that loss The Mauler is still one of the top ranked guys at 205 lbs. This is a very interesting fight DC beat the guy that beat Gustafsson but Gustafsson in a lot of people's estimation should have beat Jon Jones at UFC 165. And Jones is that 1 in the loss column for DC.

Striking both guys have Knockout power. Gustafsson has 10 career wins via knockout and only been knocked out once via knockout in the Johnson fight. Cormier has KO power and even knocked guys out at heavyweight. If this fight is at range than its to the advantage of Gustafsson also I say he's the better kick boxer. If this fight is in close with the striking than it's to DC. Overall though I gotta give the edge to Gustafsson. A big part of the reason Johnson gave him trouble was the height. DC is pretty short even at 205. Wrestling no doubt the advantage goes to Daniel Cormier. He was a great amateur wrestler. And well wrestling was the big key for Phil Davis when he beat Gustafsson. However we have seen Alexander improve his wrestling greatly. He even started training with Davis to improve his wrestling. We saw it in the fight with Jones. Jon Jones could not take Gustafsson down. And late in that fight we saw Gustafsson take Jones down. But still advantage for Cormier.

A real X-Factor will be activity in my opinion. Gustafsson only fought once in 2014 and so far only once in 2015. Part of that was waiting for Jones he also got hurt, along with taking time for to mourn with the death of his father. DC has a fairly regular fighter I do think being active is better than being inactive. My pick is Daniel Cormier. I would love for Gustafsson to win this but I think DC being more active. We know how good his wrestling is and his boxing has improved greatly. I think this go the distance and the champion retains via decision.

Johnny Hendricks 17-3 MMA 12-3 UFC vs. Tyron Woodley 15-3 MMA 5-2 UFC- This fight has some back story. Back when these two were among the best college wrestler in the country they wrestled. Hendricks won that match but Woodley complained he pulled some dirty tactics. Pretty much since Hendricks lost the title to Robbie Lawler, Woodley has been calling for this fight. Woodley believe a win here would make him number 1 contender and Hendricks thought he was getting a shot at Lawler until this fight was announced. Given the current state of Welterweight it does appear the winner of this fight will get the winner of Condit vs. Lawler. Hendricks last fought at UFC 185 in March he beat Matt Brown. A fight he really used his wrestling to get a decision win. He took Brown down time and again and made sure the Immortal never got his stand up going. Woodley last fought in January he beat Kelvin Gastlum via decision at UFC 183.

Both these guys as I said were great wrestlers. In terms of straight wrestling I give the edge to Hendricks he was better and more accomplished in the NCAA and well he beat Woodley in a wrestling match.

Now both these guys have gotten a large number of win via knockout. So the striking could very interesting. Hendricks has eight career wins via knockout and never been knocked out. Woodley has five career KO wins and only been knocked out once. But that was early in his career when he was still pretty much just a wrestler. Hendricks it always seems to be all about that big powerful left hand. Woodley seems to be a little more diverse. Another edge will be the fact that Woodley has five more inches of reach. Honestly I could see either guy landing that big shot and knocking the other out. Or even just landing that big shot that takes the hurts the guy. The edge I am going to give to Woodley.

One of the X-Factors is the cardio for both men. We know Hendricks can go into long fights. He's gone the distance vs. GSP and Lawler. He doesn’t really seem to tire out. Woodley we have seen gas out. That played a factor in both his losses to Mardquart and MacDonald. Woodley is the kind of fighter that puts a lot into every single punch trying to finish. But if he can't finish the fight he tires out. Why I could see Woodley knocking Hendricks out it won't be easy. Robbie Lawler couldn't do it and well if you can last vs. Lawler you can last vs. anyone. Plus we saw it vs. Brown and even Condit if Hendricks feels your a threat standing up he will take you down. This has the potential to be a very close fight but I am going with Hendricks to get the win. Plus Woodley has tried to break through to the next level but always come a little short. Hendricks has beat some elite fighters.

Ryan Bader 19-4 MMA 12-4 UFC vs. Rashad Evans 19-3-1 MMA 14-3-1 UFC- Ryan Bader was set to fight Daniel Cormier earlier this year. Than everything with Jones went down. DC got the title shot and well Bader felt slighted because he's on a four fight winning streak and was highly ranked guy in the division on a streak. That led to an argument at the press conference at UFC 187. If Badder can win this fight he can get that title shot he feels he should have had already. For Rashad Evans this fight is the chance to come back and get right into title contention. He was supposed to fight Cormier in the latter’s light heavyweight debut but suffered an injury and has fought since. Like I said Bader enters on a fought fight winning streak. Last time he fought it was in January he beat Phil Davis via decision it wasn't a spectacular fight. But it puts him at four win in a row. And in the past when fought a guy as highly touted as Davis he would lose. Evans is on a two fight winning streak back at UFC 167 in 2013 he easily knocked out Chael Sonnen.

Bader has a 74 inch reach he's had six career wins via knockout. However he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2011. He used to be the guy that just put it all into every shot now's he a little more technical. Bader has lost twice via knockout. Also in the most infamous loss of his carer to Tito Ortiz he was hurt with a punch. Evans has 75 inches in the reach and seven career knockouts. Only been KO'ed once. Bader is mostly a puncher we have seen Evans use kicks and his movement is better. On paper the edge goes to Evans but can find his timing and range after a long layoff. And Bader has gotten better.

Both men are former Wrestlers. Evans at Michigan and Bader at Arizona State. Bader is the more accomplished wrestler. Evans has gotten away from wrestling over the years wanting to do more striking. Bader has two career submission but not since 2013. He's lost twice to via Submission once to Jon Jones and the Tito Ortiz fight again that was a long time ago. Evans has two career submission wins but that was early in his career. He's never been submitted. In terms of grappling I am going with Bader. More active use of wrestling. And again the long layoff worries me.

The pick is hard here. Bader has a good winning streak but it's not against super elite fighters. But he's also been getting better and these fights show a more well rounded fighter. Evans I think is the better but I just can't pick a guy coming off that long a layoff. So I am going with Bader. I think the layoff will be the difference. Also don't under estimate how important the motivation of being slighted in his mind will be for Bader.

Shawn Jordan 18-6 MMA 6-3 UFC vs. Ruslan Magomedov 13-1 MMA 2-0 UFC- Jordan last fought in June he knocked out Derrick Lewis with a Superkick that puts him on a three fight winning streak. Magomdedov last fought in November beating Josh Copeland via decision. His lone career loss was way back in 2011 in only his fifth career fight. Classic vet fight with a mixed record vs. Up and comer that's never been tested. Huge power advantage for Jordan 14 career wins via KO. Now Jordan has been knocked out 4 times. But Magomedov only has four career knockouts but he hasn't had one since 2011. So I gotta give the striking advantage to Jordan.

Grappling wise not much of an advantage for either. Jordan's history is as a football player he's not a wrestler he has 3 career submission wins. Magoedov has 2. Neither man has never been submitted. And it's been years since either had a submission win. So I'm going to call this even. This isn't an easy fight to pick. I'm going with Jordan why he's not an elite heavyweight he has faced some good fighters. I think that's the difference here. Don't be shocked if he gets another knockout.

Jessica Eye 11-3 1 NC MMA 1-2 1 NC UFC vs. Julianna Pena 6-2 MMA 2-0 UFC- We have a clear cut idea who the top of the Women's Bantemweight Division. The problem is because the champion has been so dominate she easily beat the top contenders so its hard to justify rematches. Thus it opens the door for others. That is why we saw Corriea get a title shot that is part of why Holm is getting a title shot. A win may not give them a title shot but it will put them closer. Eye is coming off as loss back in July losing to Miesha Tate via unanimous decision. Early on she was looking really dominating the fight looked like she could win. But she has a few bad habits one of which is backing up with her chin up. She did that Tate caught her and from there Tate took over. She hurt her with punches and got some take downs. Pena last fought in April beating Milana Dudieva via decision. Pena is a former TUF winner but she had been out for over a year due to a leg injury. A lot of people think Pena has potential to be a great fighter.

I would defiantly say Eye is the better technical striker she's got great speed and flurries real well. But Pena has knockout power that Eye lacks. Both have 3 career knockout wins but for Pena that is in much fewer fights. And well we saw in the Tate fight that Eye leaves herself open. If this become a brawl or it's done in one shot a piece style fighting than Pena. If Eye can work combos her advantage. Clear advantage on the ground for Pena she has 3 submission wins. We have seen grapple more in her fights. Eye has shown good takedown defense but not so good she can't just shrug Pena off at will.

Given the records in the UFC and how a lot of people hype up Pena it would seem that is the pick to make. But I'm going with Eye. Main reason is we have seen her look so good vs. tougher competition. She originally won the Kauffman fight before it was made a no contest. She looked good early vs. Tate. I admit it's a roll of the dice. But I think Pena hasn't really been tested yet.

Joseph Benvidez 22-4 MMA 9-2 UFC vs. Ali Bagautinov 13-3 MMA 3-1 UFC- Benvidez is in a tough spot. He is one of the very best at Flyweight. He's a great wrestlers who has become very good at submissions and he's striking has gotten excellent. The problem is his two UFC losses are both to Demetrius Johnson and both were in title fights. So long as DJ remains champion its hard for him get another shot. The only other way to get another shot is to fight and beat the other top contenders. Except her really doesn't get matched up with them. So you wonder is the UFC not wanting to put him in those fights or are guys ducking him not wanting to risk a loss and loss there title shot? Bagautinov is another former title challenger. But he lost a very one sided fight to Johnson. Making it worse for him he tested postie for EPO and got suspended.

Striking I am gong to give the edge to Benavidez. He has six career KO wins. He was with Alpha Male during Bang Ludwig's time there so he learned some good stuff. Bagautinov has five career wins five KO. But I don't think he has the ability to land that big shot like Johnson did. I think part of the reason Benvidez doesn't have more knockouts is due to the fact he's very well rounded so if he hurts someone he isn't just punching away he's looking for submissions. So yeah clear edge to Benavidez.

Grappling is where both these men made there mark. Benavidez of course a wrestler and out of Alpha Male one of the greatest wrestling camps in all of MMA. Bagautinov very accomplished grappler he's a sambo fighter and has won wrestling and BJJ championships in Russia. So I am splitting this category. I think Bagautinov is better at getting the takedown. But Benavidez is more likely to get a submission win. He has nine while his opponent only has five.

I'm going with Chalk here and picking Benavidez to pick up the win. We have seen him fight and beat a lot of tough guys. He's used to this big fights. And well his only losses are to Johnson a guy who might be the best P4P in the world and Dominick Cruz who is pretty damn good in his own right. The layoff the lack of elite opponents. The knowledge how one sided his own fight with Johnson was all seems to much for Bagautinov to overcome.

Rose Namajunas 2-2 MMA 0-1 UFC vs. Angela Hill 2-1 MMA 0-1 UFC- Both these fighters were on Season 20 of TUF. Namajunas record is some what deceptive. She last fought in December losing to Carla Esperanza via submission. Officially that is second loss in a row. But on TUF she went 3-0 in fight that don't count on her record and she finished all 3 via submission. She was supposed to fight back in May but day of the fight her opponent fell ill and pulled out. Tough thing for her since she had gone through the whole camp and because it was so late no way to find a replacement. Hill last fought in June losing a decision to Tecia Torres.

To me this is a pretty easy pick I am giving the edge in both grappling and striking to Namajunas. Thug Rose has two career submission wins another three if you count her run in the TUF house. Hill seems to mostly be a striker but honestly Namajunas is a damn good technical striker. Plus she's worked with some great coach including Duke Rufous and her long standing relationship with Pat Barry. So of course I'm going with Rose Namajunas I think her striking is enough to beat Hill and if this goes to the ground I think it's over.