UFC 195 Picks

What a crazy year 2015 has been for the UFC. Record smashing events. New stars have emerged long dominate champions fell and so many great fights. And they start 2016 with an excellent card that should get it off on the right foot.

UFC Welterweight Championship Robbie Lawler (c) 26-10 NC MMA 11-4 UFC vs. Carlos Condit 30-8 MMA 7-4 UFC- Some fights just make you got OH I WANT TO SEE THAT. This is one of those fights. Lawler the champion that later in life and later in his career have hit his stride and become the man. Condit the long time contender. Former WEC and Interim UFC champion looking to stake his claim. This fight was originally set for UFC 193 but Lawler suffered an injury to his thumb but thankfully the fight stayed together and we get it now. Lawler last fought in July at UFC 189 making his first title defense against Robbie Lawler. That fight was epic I was the fight of the year and it could very well be the greastest fight in UFC if not MMA History. Early on Lawler hurt MacDonald bashed in his noise. Than MacDonald landed a head kick that dazed Lawler. Just back and forth. Going into into the fifth Rory had the title won on the card but Lawler just kept attack and it was to much down went MacDonald and Lawler kept his belt. The only guy to beat Lawler during this UFC run was Johnny Hendricks in a very close fight. Condit last fought in May at a UFC Fight night. He battered Thiago Alves and just shut the dangerous Brazilian down. Condit may not have the greatest recent record but one loss was on an injury the other two were to GSP and Hendricks championship level fighters.

Very good chance someone goes to sleep in this fight These guys have thirty five combined Knockouts. Lawler has 20 career knockouts. Early on his was power puncher but since moving to American Top Team he's added in much more kicks. He used to be a throw it all and hunt the KO guy but now he's a much smarter fighter. He's smart when he goes hard and now he's actually seemingly getting stronger as the fight goes on. Lawler has also only been knocked out once. Condit has 15 career knockouts. He's also been a very good diverse striker he's got excellent Muay Thai makes use of all the weapons. His lone TKO loss was on an injury. He's always been a very smart fighter willing to change his game plan to beat someone. Vs. Kim he was the attacker vs. Diaz he was the counter striker. Tough one to call I will give Lawler the edge in striking but it will be close.

Very different numbers on the ground though. Lawler is from Iowa heart of USA Wrestling started in a very wrestling based camp but it was weakness early on in his career. Part of that was he was such a good striker he would go over board loading up. Lawler only has 1 win via submission and has five career submission losses but his last submission loss was in 2011 and that was to Jacare. In recent fights he's shown much better takedown defense. Condit has great wrestling often used it to mix up and open up strikes. Condit has 13 career submission wins against 3 losses. But his last win via submission was way back in 2008. I will give Condit the edge on the ground but I don't know if he can take or keep Lawler down long enough.

Both men are with elite camps. Lawler is at American Top Team. Since moving down there to Florida he's become such a better fighter. He's game plans are better he looks stronger and in better shape and he works with many great UFC fighters. Condit is a Jackson Winkeljohn fighter the camp he's spent most of his career at. Another elite camp tons of great fighters out there could also help them has been the fact that camp has had a lot of big fight recently. You had Holm, Cerrone and Overeem all trying to peak at the same time. One factor that could hurt Lawler if the fact his long time boxing coach Matt Pena has retired.

This should be an excellent fight. I can't wait to see it. My pick is Lawler. He's been on such a role the last few years. He just look so good. I think his power can shut Condit down the take down defense should be good enough to keep it standing. Condit had some problem lately but still got this shot. I think right now Lawler is the better fighter.

Stipe Miocic 13-2 MMA 7-2 UFC vs. Andrei Arlovski 25-10 1NC MMA 14-4 UFC- It's the embodiment of the next generation vs. older generation. Arlovski who in 2005 won the UFC Heavyweight Championship made a legit claim to be number 1 contender in 2015. Miocic made his MMA debut in 2010 and in five years has become a guy man have pegged as a future world champion. Miocic last fought in May at a UFC Fight Night. He absolutely dominated Mark Hunt. Took him down time and again and just pounded on him. Finally into the fifth round the he got the TKO. He was going to fight Ben Rothwell in October but he suffered an injury and pulled out. Arlovski last fought in September at UFC 191 facing off with Frank Mir. Going into the fight Mir had two consecutive KO's while had three in a row. So fans were hoping for a really exciting barn burner. Instead we got a very conservative fight. Neither guy took much risk. Arlovksi got a decision win. For Alrovoski on a long winning streak a chance to truly stamp his spot as number 1 contender. For Miocic its a chance to win over fans and get a big win over a top contender.

Both these guys are known for there boxing. Arlovksi has always shown great MMA style boxing while Miocic has shown good hands and prior to his MMA career he won the Golden Gloves in his native Ohio. Stipe has nine career knockout wins his lone knockout loss was to Stefan Struve. But he also went toe to toe with JDS beat him up pretty good and manged to not get rocked after taking some hard shots. Arlovski has 17 career KO wins but he's also been knocked out 7 times. Also you gotta factor in Arlvoski is 36 years old and been in a lot of hard fights. Arlovksi is more prone to get wild and just slug away. Micoci seems to be more technical and he will have a three inch reach advantage. I think striking wise I gotta give Micic the edge if he fights smart. With Arlovski he can connect and hurt anyone but if is to wild wild he can also get caught.

Grappling wise both have background. Miocic was a division one wrestler we have seen him mix that in and take guys down to get some ground and pound. He's not much of a submission fighter he's only got one submission win but never been submitted in his career. Arlovski got his start in Sambo.Mimic He archived the rank of Master of Sport. We have seen some great Sambo fighters in the past.archived Now Arlovski also not much of a submission fighter. Only three career submission wins but also never been submitted. Again I'm giving the edge to Micoci because he's more likely to use his wrestling.

The training teams give a huge advantage to Arlovksi. He's with Jackson Winkeljohn. A great camp he's also got a whose who of elite fighters to train with. Miocic fights out of Ohio with Strong Style Fight Team. The only other notability name I can link to that team is Jessica Eye. Don't get me wrong that team has been with Stipie and helped make him a great fighter but the edge has got to go with the guy in New Mexico. Pick wise I'm leaning to Miocic. I think this is when he takes a step forward and truly become a title contender.