UFC 205 Picks

2016 might be the year of the biggest events in MMA history. And we got yet another coming up. After nearly two decades of being outlawed MMA is back in New York City. Madison Square Garden has hosted some of the biggest moments in boxing and pro wrestling history. Now it’s home to a massive UFC card. Three title fights a chance at history and just a loaded card.

UFC Lightweight Championship Eddie Alvarez (c) 28-4 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Conor McGregor (fwc) 20-3 MMA 8-1 UFC- Talk about different paths to the top. Alvarez started his MMA career in 2003. He spent years fighting his way to the UFC until he finally got there in 2014. McGregor started his career in 2008 he was in the UFC in 2013. McGregor is the guy in million dollar suits he is the big talker. Eddie is the average looking guy you know don’t know he’s a fighter until he steps in the cage. But this has potential to be a great fight. Alvarez last fought in July at a UFC fight night as part of UFC 200 weekend. It was his title shot at Rafael dos Anjos. Going into that fight RDA was on such a roll he looked to be unstopable. Than Eddie hit this perfect hook that rocked him badly. We than saw how smart Alvarez is. Instead of head hunting he kept changing it up. He would go to the body when RDA protected the body he went back to the head. Finally the referee stepped in and Eddie Alvarez was the top lightweight in the world. McGregor last fought in August at UFC 202. It was the rematch with with Nate Diaz. It played out very similar to the first with Conor controlling the early portion than getting rocked towards the middle of the fight. Unlike the fight at UFC 196 Conor didn’t panic He rode out the storm got back into the fight late and won a decision.

When it comes to striking both men have knockout power. Conor McGregor has seventeen career knockout wins. He has never been knocked out in his career. Alvarez has fifteen career knockouts. He has only been knocked out once in his career. Now we have very different striking styles. Eddie is a classic tough Philly fighter type. He brawls throws a lot of big punches stands right in front of you. Now he’s been working with Mark Henry more the last few fights and we have seen him start to work in more footwork and feints. Conor is very one of kind striker her works a lot more movement. He has very good boxing and that trademark left hand. But he also works in more kicks and not just round house kicks he will throw hooks, side kicks he will spin. A real key question is will Conor’s power carry up to 155? He rocked Diaz but never stopped him. That could be part of Conor’s body lot liking carrying 25 in extra pounds compared to feather weight. Lightweight is just ten pounds more. Now Alvarez is a lot like Diaz in that he can take a good punch and come back. However he is not as big as Diaz. Nate Diaz is six foot with a seventy six inch reach. Meaning he was a lot taller and longer than Conor. Alvarez is fight foot eight inches with a sixty nine inch reach. Meaning he is shorter and giving up a huge five inches to Conor in boxing range.

Now I’ll get more into this when I get to X-Factors but a big part of this will be how Eddie tries to fight. If he’s smart and uses a jab and doesn’t rush it will fairly even standing up. If he wants to prove a point and KO Conor I think he leaves himself open. I would rather have a bigger and more diverse striker in any case. So I give the edge in stand up to McGregor.

When it comes to finishing on the ground the numbers back Alvarez he has seven career submissions. Now he hasn’t scored a submission win since Josh Neer in 2010. That said he’s only been submitted twice in his career. McGregor though only has one submission win and that was back in 2012 in a smaller promotion. The real key is that McGregor has all three of his losses via submission. Now McGregor was said to have worked heavily on his jijitsu after his loss to Diaz. He brought in a high level BJJ coach. That said I don’t think he can close the gap that much.

Wrestling wise again huge advantage to Alvarez. He has the wrestling back round. We even saw him use his wrestling quite a bit against Melendez and Pettis. Now a lot of people forget Conor was actually he one that took the first fight to the ground vs. Diaz. And in the rematch he blocked a number of take downs. But Diaz kept going for take downs against the cage allowing McGregor to wall walk. Alvarez is a much better offense wrestler than Diaz is. We saw Conor struggle against Chad Mendez. You just feel every second this fight is a wrestling match Conor is in danger. Alvarez gets the advantage here.

We have some contrasts in training styles. Alvarez has worked out of few different gyms but right now works mostly with Mark Henry and Ricardo Almeda. So we get the usual MMA style team. Where he’s got a number of guy at various levels some high level UFC guys or WSOF champs all of whom are getting ready for a fight or are trying to stay fresh or come into work with him. McGregor is out of SBG Ireland with head coach John Kavanagh another gym with some UFC guys and any number of prospects training. How ever it seems that McGregor does more of a boxing style training camp. Where its all about him leading up. He has a few times left Ireland and gone Vegas to train. Now he has often said he doesn’t really specialized on his opponents. I think Conor’s way is the better way especially for such a big fight.

The single biggest X-Factor for this fight will be the mental warfare. McGregor is known as a great hype man. He trash talks and runs down his opponent. That isn’t just about selling the fight that him doing all he can to piss you off and get you to fight stupid. More often than not it’s worked. Digeo Brando, Dustin Porier and most all Jose Aldo seemed to be really affected by it. Just look back at UFC 194 Aldo came out looked for a big hay maker left himself open go KO’ed, woke up and had to cry himself to sleep. Is Alvarez being affected? Well watching the UFC 205 press conference he sure did. Early on he snapped interrupting Conor right off the bat. During that moment when that fans started insult him he didn’t seem to understand what was going on. He seemed easily upset when talking about Conor. So yeah it seems Conor is already winning this round.

This could be a very inserting fight. So much of will depend on how Eddie tries to fight Conor. If he comes out mixes in wrestling with footwork and his striking. He could force Conor to have to dig deep again like he did at UFC 202. If Eddie looking for a big knockout or to just crush him Conor will be able to use that trademark timing and prescience. How will Conor’s body respond at a lighter weight again? Will doing a cut affect him or will a more ideal weight for his body restore his cardio and power? I frankly can see both guys winning. My pick though is Conor. I do think his different style striking will give Eddie problems I think the mental war will wear Eddie out. I even think Conor will be able to stuff a few take downs. I will even listen to Mystic Mac and say first round knockout.

UFC Welterweight Championship Tyron Woodley (c) 16-3 MMA 6-2 UFC vs. Stephen Thompson 13-1 MMA 8-1 UFC- We have the classic case of a world champion with all the talent in the world taking on a contender that seems to perfectly built to defeat him. We have a champion who sat out a very long time vs. a challenger a who we saw rise to the top by going out and facing tough fighters. We also have some growing bad blood. Woodley last fought in July at UFC 201. He had sat out over 400 days he felt had earned a title shot and refused to fight after Johnny Hendricks has been forced to pull out of there UFC 192 fight. It kind of feels like the UFC finally just gave him the shot so he would finally fight again. That said his waiting payed off. He got his shot at Robbie Lawler and in the first round he sprang forward landed a big over hand and won the title. While The Chosen One was out Wonderboy was fighting building his name and case for a title shot. He last fought in June at a Fight Nigh and dominated Rory MacDonald. Whole fight he just out timed him out landed him. Rory never got going.

Now many felt with that win which put Thompson at seven wins in a row made him the number one contender. Well Thompson was a Fox Analyst for UFC 201 he picked Lawler to win and even said he would rather fight Robbie. So after winning Wooldey throws that back at him and starts asking for “money fights” against Nick Diaz or GSP. Than we get some back and forth Thompson saying Woodley is scared and than after the fight is announced Woodley calling him Wonder Woman and saying “He knows I had agreed already.” The fans seems to have sided with Thompson which I always think can be a small advantage for a fighter.

Striking the advantage seems to all go to Thompson. In MMA Thompson has seven career wins via knockout in only 13 career wins. Woodley has six knockouts certainly has power he has six career KO’s. Now you add into that Thompson also was a kickboxer in 38 armature and 20 pro fights he was never lost. He’s never been knocked out in his MMA career or Kickboxing career. Woodley has been knocked out once in his career. Now style wise we have very different attacks. Woodley is more of a boxer he even openly talks about all the old film he has studded of guys like Ali. Thompson is a Karate black belt he will do things not many MMA fighters will. He uses a lot side kicks and again spinning style attacks. I gotta give the edge to Thompson. Woodley likes to spring in throw a few punches and get out. In all three of his losses Woodley has had the same issue. He can’t get in or close enough and gases out. Thompson movement and kicks should keep this at the range he wants. Also Karate guys are great at reading the body and predicting when his opponent will attack and how.

Ground game it seems to be advantages for Woodley. Tyrone was a Division wrestler in College and very early in is career he would use that wrestling to dominate fights. He also has five career submission wins. Now he hasn’t scored a submission win since 2010. Thompson has one career submission win ironically back in 2010. In his one career loss Thompson faced Matt Browne. In that fight he was taken down over and over again. Since than though Thompson has really worked on his wrestling. He started heading out to Serra Longo to train with Chris Weidman. And we have seen it pay off he can stuff take downs now and if he is taken down escape. Woodley has the edge though.

Woodley used to train out of American Top Team but no longer seems to got to the Coconut Creek location. Instead his main gym seems to be his own ATT branch in Missouri while also spending time at Rourfusport. That could be key in that Thompson has such a unique style but a great coach like Duke Roufus and training partners like Anothy Pettis can help him figure it out. Thompson as I said he works his wrestling with Chris Weidman but mostly stays close to home in South Carolina. Often when a guy “stays close to home” it seems he never gets to that next level. But Thompson hasn’t that problem in his career. He also has worked with Tristar so it’s not like he only has the same guy throughout his career.

The biggest X-Factor in this fight to me will be cardio. Tyrone Woodley seems to fade the longer the fight goes. He likes to load up and land that big power shot. Thompson seems to hold his power better because he isn’t putting it all into a single shot. The longer this fight goes the better it is for Thompson. Big key is this fight is also five rounds so Woodley could be fading when they enter the championship rounds.

There is an old saying styles make fights. Thompson has the perfect style to beat Woodley. Now Woodley can claim he doesn’t gas out by again the history says he does. He can say he’s going in high level Karate guys to mirror Thompson but we have seen guys try that and not work. Thompson’s kicks and movement should be enough. Third round knockout for Wonderboy.

UFC Strawweight Championship Joanna Jedrzejczyk (c) 12-0 MMA 5-0 UFC vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz 10-0 MMA 3-0 UFC- Back in 2012 these two fought in an armature fight in there native Poland. Joanna submitted Karolina in the second round. Now all these years later as pros they colloid for the world title in New York City. Joanna last fought in July at The Ultimate Fighter Final during UFC 200 weekend. It was her rematch with Claudia Gadelha. The first fight had been very close Joanna got the win but it was not without controversy. A number of people felt Claudia won they also coached on the Ultimate Fighter and that only makes bad blood worse. Early on it seemed it be Joanna’s worse nightmare. She was dropped by a punch got taken down. It looked like she was on the way to losing her title. As the fight wears on though Gadelha starts to fade while Joanna is able to start sprawling and brawling She ups her output and manages to rally back and win a decision on the cards. We had seen Jedrzejczyk dominate a fight start to finish. This was the time we saw she could be tested and get the W.

Karolina last fought at UFC 201 later in July. She beat Rose Namajunas. Going in Rose had a lot of momentum. I think people excepted it to very even on the feet. With Rose having the ground game to fall back on. But Kowalkiewicz manged to shut her down. She used striking to stifle Rose’s own and kept the fight standing. It seems every fight out she’s put in a higher profile position and each time she has risen to the occasion.

This is kind of a strange fight to break down because these two are so similar. Both fighters have Kickboxing more specifically Muay Thai as a base for there striking. Both fighters are more about volume than a single power strike. The power advantage though does seem to go to Joanna Jedrzejczyk. In her MMA pro career she has four knockouts. Karolina Kowalkiewicz only has one career knockout in MMA. Also the eyeball test says Joanna has more power. We have seen so many fighters face her and leave very beaten up. Hell Jessica Penne looked like she had run into a buzz saw. So I have to give the edge to Joanna champion when it comes to striking.

We really haven’t seen either woman on the ground that often. Joanna won the armature fight between these two and her second career pro fight via submission. Karolina has won two pro fight via submission. So we aren’t likely to see a great exchange on the ground. Joanna has shown excellent take down defense in her career. Often she manages to do a lot of damage on a fighter looking to take her down. Karolina really doesn’t give up many take downs either and she has manged to survive any ground exchanges. I gotta just say push we really won’t know who has the advantage until we see some type of grappling exchange.

Training Joanna recently made a change beginning to work with American Top Team. ATT has some great fighters including other females and smaller fighters she can work with. It also has some great coaches. I’m not really sure if she is still working with her old team in Poland. From what I understand Karolina is working with a Gracie Barra team in Poland. So I have to give the edge with to Joanna. Sometimes though changing teams can backfire or it takes a while for the fighter to get used to the new coaches and corner.

Several X-Factors I can see. One this is easily the biggest fight or Karolina’s career. She co-main evented UFC 201 but that “oh yeah that one is coming up” due to the hype of UFC 200. Joanna has been on some big shows in the past including UFC 193. She used to dealing with the extra attention and press. Advantage Joanna. Also Karolina has never gone twenty five minutes in her career. Joanna now has twice. We saw Claudia get off to a great start but fade in rounds four and five. Joanna knows she can last that time. Again advantage to Joanna Champion. Final X-Factor the high number of title changes for the last year or so. Since UFC 193 where Ronda lost we have seen Ronda, Holm, Tate, Werdum, Lawler, Aldo, Weidman, Dillishaw, Rockhold, and RDA lose there titles. Is Jedrzejczyk who is now the second longest running champion in the UFC due to lose? If nothing else maybe it builds up Karolina’s confidence.

So making this pick I have to go with the champion. A big reason is that Karolina just seems to do a lot of the same stuff Joanna does. I just don’t think you can beat her trying to fight her at what she does well. I think Joanna will have a high out put and wear down Karolina getting a TKO in the second round.

Chris Weidman 13-1 MMA 9-1 UFC vs. Yoel Romero 12-1 MMA 7-0 UFC- The king of the UFC Middleweight division is Michael Bisping. Seems like everyone is making there case for while they should get a shot. Both these men last fought in December. They had radically different nights and both have been out for dramatically different reasons for being out so long. That night in December Romero beat Jacare Souza. But like so many others times in Romero’s career there was controversy. Early on he badly hurt Souza and nearly knocked him out in the first round. As the fight wore on Souza started to get back into the fight he went for a take down. At which point Romero blatantly grabbed the fence and used it to wind up in top position. Now the referee stood the fight back up but many felt he should have lost a point. As the fight wore on Jacare recovered and really got back into the fight but he never got the big advantage like that take down could have given him. The judges gave Romero the win but the fight was very close and again many felt he should have lost a point. Than post fight he failed a drug test. He manged to prove it was due to a tainted supplement. He’s been suspended since.

That same night Weidman was defending his middleweight title against Luck Rockhold. That fight was pretty highly anticipated fight. First round Weidman manged to get the back he kept Rockhold from getting range and won that round. Second round was clearly all Rockhold he used his great kicks really started to world Weidman’s body. We get to the third and it appears Weidman is winning that round until he throws a spinning hook kick. It was not a great kick it didn’t land all it did was allow Rockhold to tie him up and take down. Quickly he was mounted and took a beating. You really could argue the fight should have been stopped. They come back out for the forth but Weidman is done. Got taken down again mounted took more ground and pound before it was finally called off. Weidman was supposed to get a rematch at UFC 199 but an injury forced him out. He than saw Michael Bisping win the title and got passed for the next shot.

Both these men come from a wrestling back round. Weidman was an all American in college at Hofstra University. He finished 3^rd in the country in 2007. Romero though was a Olympic wrestler for Cuba. He won a silver medal in 2000 Olympics he also won a gold in world Championships in 1999 and the 2003 Pan American Games. So in Freestyle Wrestling Romero would have the bigger advantage. Of course this isn’t Freestyle wrestling. And we really haven’t seen Romero use his wrestling to score takdowns that often. According to UFC.com Weidman is at 55% success rate for his take downs Romero is at 44%. Weidman has also landed more take downs than Romero has gone for. In terms of submissions Weidman has three career submissions and Romero has zero. Now I am going to call this a draw on the ground. Part of wrestling in MMA is keeping the fight standing when you want to. Weidman seems to more willing to wrestle and go for submissions but Romero might be able to fend him off.

Both these men have power. Weidman has six career knockouts although one comes off of an injury. Romero though has ten career knockouts. Both guys also have shown one shot power. Both men also lost there one fight via knockouts. Now with Romero part of that was him gassing out, Wediamn it was he was in an awful position and just had to take the shots. Neither guy is really known for technique. Weidman really is more of a bull rusher and we have seen him get in trouble not only against Rockhold but even against Belfort. Romero is a little better and seems a bit more patient waiting to land his big shot. So I have to give the edge to Romero.

Weidman is a member of Serra-Longo they have been his trainers throughout his MMA career. He also works with Renzo Gracie on BJJ. Also he trains some striking with Stephan Thompson. The question could be what changes have they made since his loss to Rockhold. Romero is a member of American Top Team. Now Serra-Longo has had some good fighters but it doesn’t seem they always improve. I will say ATT give Romero the edge here.

So looking at the X-Factors. Weidman has been one of the fighters doing all he can to get MMA legalized in New York. He is a Long Island Native and he’s talked about how much he wants this fight. However we see that negatively affect some fighters. Some love it others deal with all kinds of problems. The other X-Factor is where is Chris Weidman’s head out. For the first time in his MMA career he is coming off a loss. And it wasn’t just a loss it was a bad fairly one sided loss. Where is he head at? So again advantage Romero. Final X-Factor is age. Weidman is 32 and Romero is 39. Younger fighter gets the edge.

So tough fight to pick. You can see Romero is the better stirker but Weidman can still KO him. We can say Weidman is more likely to wrestle and than first thing Romero does is hit a double leg. Weidman could be a mess fighting in NYC and off a loss or he could more motivated than ever. All the edge seem to go to Romero so I am picking him. This fight will go three rounds and I could even see a split decision.

Kelvin Gastelum 12-2 MMA 7-2 UFC vs. Donald Cerrone 31-7 1 NC MMA 16-4 UFC- One fighter is on what maybe the best run of his career. The other coming off the single biggest win of his career. Cerrone last fought at UFC 202 in August he knocked out Rick Story. Story is a tough vet and Cerrone just lit him up finally finishing the fight in the second round with a flawless looking combination. Since moving up to Welterweight Cerrone is 3-0 looked like a monster finishing all three fights. Gastelum last fought in July at UFC 200. He earned a unanimous decision win over Johnny Hendricks. Gastelum has had some strong wins but that was his biggest win first time he beat a former world champion.

KO numbers favor Cerrone. The cowboy has won seven career fights via knockout while Gaselum has only won four. Now Cerrone has been knocked out before while Gasteleum has never been finished. But just watching them Cerrone is very good diverse striker with lethal Muay Thai. He’s got amazing leg kicks. He also has a record as a kickboxer and even boxed a pro fight in that sport. Gastelum has talent but I don’t think he will be able to deal with the kicking game. His best shot would be to make it more of a boxing range fight.

Ground game clearly seems to got in the direction of Cerrone. He has sixteen career submission wins while Gastelum only has four. Cerrone has only been submitted once that was to Benson Henderson way back in 2010. Cerrone is known to use his striking to set up his ground game. He often will hurt a fighter with striking take it down and get the submissions. Gastelum has never been finished again it just appears he will be a step behind Cerrone on the ground.

Training Cerrone is a long time Jackson Winkeljohn fighter. He works with world class coaches and training partners. He also works out heavily at his ranch but again he’s brinign in world class guys. He’s also in the last year really changed up his training in terms of what he does. He cut down hard sparring in favor of more technique and well it’s appearing to pay off. Gastelum trains with Yumma MMA in Arizona. Right now it appears to be a big fish in a small pond situation. Now that can be a god thing. But it more likely Cerrone is finding guys that can be his version of Gastelum than Gastelum finding a perfect training partner to mirror Cerrone.

To me the big X-Factor will be weight. Cerrone was a career long lightweight who has moved up. It seems like his body has really responded to be to the extra weight. Meanwhile Gastelum has missed weight at welterweight a few times. At one point the UFC forced him to move back up to middleweight. Not it’s not that he’s to big for the weight class. It just seems to be he’s not always on point with his diet. I think that will factor in and it’s another advantage for Cerrone.

So clearly I’m picking Gastelum… Ok of course I’m picking Cerrone. I mean I gave the guy every single advantage. I think the Cowboy follow the game plan that has worked for him so many times. I see him breaking down Gastelum with leg kicks and good boxing. He will rock him take him down and than get a submission.

Miesha Tate 18-6 MMA 5-3 UFC vs. Raquel Pennington 8-5 MMA 5-2 UFC- The former world champion coming off a truly awful performance. She is taking on a long time vet that is surging as of late and has given some her best performances. Tate last fought at UFC 200 that other biggest event ever that happened this year. That was a huge moment for her, she came in world champion, wound up main eventing, and there was all this talk about what would come next. In all the interviews Tate did the same things. “I’m not worried about Ronda… I will beat Nunes because I can take her shots and she gasses.” I think she took Nunes way to lightly and over esistemed her ability to recover. Right away Nunes hurt her broke her noise than got her down and submitted her with a choke. That snapped a five fight winning streak. Pennington has been around a while she doesn’t have the best record but she’s really seemed to turn a corner looking better and better. She’s on a career best three fight winning streak her last fight was August at UFC 202 she got unanimous decision win over Elizabeth Phillips. That said this streak has come against more a second tier talent Tate is the most elite fighter she has faced since her loss to Holly Holm.

Neither fighter is known for knockout power. Tate only has three KO’s and Pennington has only has one. Both are pretty strong chin wise. Tate only has two career losses via knockout. Pennington has never been knocked out. Both are more likely to brawl standing up. Tate did show great patience against Holm though. Tate seems to get hurt in fights when striking more now she usually is able to recover but still seeing someone get dropped will affect the judges. Pennington also has a two and a half inch reach advantage. So I am giving her the striking advantage.

Tate’s background is wrestling as has often been repeated she made the boys wrestling team when in high school. In terms of submissions Tate has seven career submission wins while Pennington only has five. Now Pennington has only been submitted once while Tate has been submitted three times. But look at who submitted her. Twice it was to Ronda Rousey who some say was has the best arm bar in MMA history. The other to Amanda Nunes a BJJ black belt with a judo background and part of that was due to a broken noise. Pennington doesn't have a wrestling back round prior to MMA. Her style seems to more about standing up. Tate has the edge in grappling.

Tate trains with Xtreme Couture. Its not the same high level gym it was a number of years ago but it still has some good coaches. Her long time boyfriend Bryan Caraway acts as her head coach and corners her. Caraway can be mixed in the corner sometimes he seems to just spew random or complete BS (him saying “she’s breaking” in the rematch with Rousey comes to mind) but Tate has had a lot off success. Pennington trains with Triple Threat Gym in Colorado which seems to be a boxing gym and she also does work with Altitude MMA. Clear edge seems to got to Tate.

I think the biggest X-Factor is where is Miesha Tate’s head at. Now’s she lost before and come back. But one thing I really don’t like is Tate is already talking about a catchweight fight with Cyborg. Years ago she fought lost the first fight to Ronda and all she talked about leading up to her fight with Julie Kedzie was Ronda and the rematch, it was only a mistake by Kedize that allowed her to win. Against Cat Zingano she seemed to worry more about again the rematch with Ronda. And again 200 she goes in with the title but it talking about a third fight with Ronda, a rematch with Holm, a super fight with Cyborg. Well she lost to Cat and Nunes. If Tate is looking past Pennington that could cost her. Edge to Rocky. The other X-factor is level of competition. Tate has fought so many top level fighters, Pennington has fought a few but yet to get that big win. So edge Tate.

To me this is Tate’s fight to lose. She should be good enough standing that she can steal a round if need be in an all stand up fight. Her wrestling will give her the huge edge on the ground hell even just the threat of it will help. I think Pennington will hang in there and get the end. Tate gets a decision win.

Frankie Edgar 20-5-1 MMA 14-5-1 UFC vs. Jeremy Stephens 25-12 MMA 11-11 UFC- The Answer vs. Who The Fuck Is This Guy? Sorry I couldn’t help myself. This has the potential to be a real barn burner. Two of the toughest and longer tennured guys in the UFC. Think about it this fight could be a co-main event any other card its the featured prelim here. Edgar last fought in July at UFC 200 it was a rematch with Jose Aldo. And it was an awful performance. He was on a long winning streak that as interim title fight. It just seemed like he never got going. Aldo kept him at the range he wanted his wrestling didn’t do anything. Even his head coach Mark Henry admitted they didn’t adjust well in the fight. That snapped five fight winning streak. Stephens last fought in May at a Fight Night. He won a unaimous decision win over Renan Barao. Now with Barao he was making his 145 debut and you can argue he’s never been close to the same level since Dillishaw beat him. Still though it was a good big name win for Stephens. That said Stephenes fought a great fight he used his own striking to hurt Barao and when he needed to clinched up and shut Barao down.

Both men have great striking. Its a contrasting style. Edgar uses a lot of movement he cuts angles he feints. Stephens is more of a flat footed brawler. He likes to plant and bang it out. Stephens is three inches taller and also has three inches in reach. That said Frankie is very used to be the smaller man. I think the movement will cut the advantage and Stephens doesn’t have the great leg kicks that Aldo has. When it comes to power edge goes to Stephens who has sixteen career KO while Edgar only has six. Both have tough chins though, Stephens has only been knocked out once and Edgar has never been KO’ed. I am giving the edge to Edgar. I think the movement will be key. Stephens might catch him but I don’t think it’s as likely as someone like Aldo doing it to Edgar.

Both men have wrestling back rounds. But Edgar is more likely to use it. We do see him work in take-downs more. Stephens again is more likely to brawl. We did see in Barao fight him clinch a bit more. Edgar has more submissions with four career wins and he’s never been submitted. Stephens has three wins and three losses via submission. Again I have to give the edge to Edgar just because he’s more likely to use his wrestling.

Training Stephens fights out of Alliance MMA one of the best teams in the sport. Edgar boxing coach is Mark Henry who has really come to fame lately he’s also working BJJ with Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeda and does Muay Thai with Phil Nurse. As far as I’m concerned its a draw here. Both guys are working with the best and training with the best. I don’t really see a huge X-Factor here. Both guys are so experienced I can’t think of something that they both haven’t dealt with.

When I pick fights I like to lean to the more well rounded fighter, the more technical, and the fighter more likely to use all of the tools. All those go to Frankie Edgar. This could wind up being a grind. I see it going all three rounds. And the judges will give it Frankie Edgar.

Khabib Nurmagomedov 23-0 MMA 7-0 UFC vs. Michael Johnson 17-10 MMA 9-6 UFC- Vitally important fight in the lightweight division. Both men have come close to getting a title shot but various things have kept them from it. Nurmagoedov is a fighter that has seen injures halt his career. He did not fight for two years because of leg problems He finally made his return in April at UFC on Fox. At first he was supposed to face Tony Ferguson. Than Ferguson got hurt, Khabib went to the UFC begged them find anyone so he could just fight. That wound up being Darrell Horcher who was making his UFC debut. Looked a little rusty early but eventually took over got a take down and got a ground and pound TKO win. Johnson just fought in September. Going into the fight he was on a two fight skid he was matched up with Dustin Porier who was 4-0 at 155. Johnson though took only 1:35 to knock him out. He called for a fight on this card and he’s got it.

Johnson is the one more known for his striking. Both men have eight career knockouts. Although with Nurmagomedov a lot of those come from ground and pound. Neither man has ever been knocked. Nurmagomedov is not bad on his feet he’s just more known for his wrestling. Johnson seems to prefer boxing. Johnson will also have a two inch reach advantage. So in stand up Johnson has the advantage.

Grappling is Nurmagomdedov’s wheel house. He’s got a back round in wrestling, sambo, and judo. Johnson has wrestled but not nearly on the level that Khabib has. When it comes to submission numbers are all on Nurmagomdedov’s side. He has seven career submission wins while Johnson only has the two. Also Johnson has been submitted six times. You gotta think Khabib is looking to get this fight to the ground because he knows he’s got a huge edge.

Training Johnson is a Blackzillina. I’m torn on that camp they always seem to have big names around them but yet the results are never great. Khabib splits his time part of it in Russian with Red Furry where his coached by his father. He also works with AKA. AKA has a lot of great fighters but we often see there guys get hurt. So I would be worried if Khabib could come in with a more banged up body than he should. But I will give the edge in training to the Russian.

One X-Factor to me is its been a very long time since Khabib fought an upper level fighter. He beat RDA back in April of 2014 than he started suffering injury after injury after injury. Horcher was a good fighter but had never been close to the level of elite. He was a good shake off the rust fight. I guess you could view that either way. I’m sure Khabib is viewing it as I got all the rust off now. I’m sure Johnson is thinking I’ve been the one facing top guys I’ve been in the fire. The other X-Factor is Khabib feels he was screwed out of a title shot. He’s undefeated most believe if not for his injures he would have already gotten one. Than his name was being tossed out as the next contender when the UFC was trying to get Conor and Eddie to agree to terms. He’s come out said in interviews “I better get a shot next if I don’t I will make sure the UFC doesn’t get into Russia.” We have seen guys come into fight saying stuff like “I better...” And than they lose. To me that is an edge for Johnson because you shouldn’t look past that guy.

To me the single biggest edge is the wrestling of Khabib. I just can’t see Johnson being able to stop it. I think this will be a very take down heavy fight. I think Khabib will take down early and often by the second round Johnson will be shot and that will led to a TKO win for the Russian.

Rashad Evans 19-5-1 MMA 14-5-1 UFC vs. Tim Kennedy 18-5 MMA 3-1 UFC- So two older fighters, former teammates and really a cross roads fight for both men. You feel like the winner can make another run to the top the loser might be making TV the full time job. Kennedy has not fought since UFC 178 in September of 2014. He lost a highly controversial fight to Yoel Romero. He had Romero hurt on a big punch right at the end of the second round. Romero’s corner did all they could to extend the round break so he could recover. Now Kennedy believes he should have won because Romero didn't’ answer the bell to start round three. The fight goes on Romero knocks Kennedy out to win the fight. Kennedy did a file protest but the result was up held. Kennedy has since pursued outside interest. Evans had his own two year layoff that was due to injury. He has fought twice in his comeback and lost twice. The last one came in April in a UFC on Fox. He was paired up with Glover Trexiera and got knocked out in under two minutes. Really that was the one big shot that landed and it ended the fight.

Striking the power numbers favor Evans. He has eight career knockouts and Kennedy only has six. So it’s not a huge power edge. Both seem to have good chins both have only been knocked out twice. I’ve seen some people wonder if Evans chin is shot after his last fight. But again that was only his second knockout loss in twenty six career fights. It does seems Evans got hit a lot when he fought Badar not that long ago. Still I think Evans is the better striker he will also have longer reach and is more likely to use kicks and have a more diverse striker.

When it comes to grappling Evans does have the better back round. He was a wrestler for Michigan in College. That said in MMA he really doesn’t use his wrestling as his career has worn on. Kennedy actually does have a pretty good ground game from what I have seen over the years. When it comes to submissions huge edge to Kennedy. Evans only has one career submission career. Kennedy has eight. Neither man has been submitted. I will give the grappling edge to Kennedy because I think he will more likely to look for the ground.

Training Kennedy has been a Jackson Winkeljohn fighter most of his career. I assume he is training with them for this fight. Evans is a Blackzillina. Again the Blackzillina’s have a lot of big names not the results. Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn are often called the best coaches in MMA. Also both guys trained Evans. So I think edge goes to Kennedy.

The biggest X-Factor to me is Evans athleticism. He was a guy that was always a great athlete. That played a huge part in his style and his success as a fighter. Now as you got older naturally that fades to begin with you add into that Evans suffered a leg injury. Sometimes you just never quite recover at the same level. Kennedy meanwhile fights a style that will work better for an older fighter so edge goes to Kennedy. This is also the first time Evans will fight at middleweight. He’s spent almost his entire MMA career at two hundred and five pounds now he’s got to cut an extra twenty. He did wrestle 165 and 174 but it’s been so long since he got to that weight and his body was different. Kennedy has been a middleweight his whole career so edge to Kennedy. Now it’s been two years since Kennedy fought. Evans has the advantage he’s been through two camps so the active edge goes to Evans. Final X-Factor is Evans is from New York State so I’m sure he will be fired up to fight at home.

I just to much working against Evans. I just feel he’s more shot as a fighter at this point. I don’t think Kennedy will finish him. But I think it goes the distance it would play out some what like the Badar fight did where Kennedy just keeps winning the exchanges. Decision win for Tim Kennedy.

Jim Miller 27-8 1 NC MMA 16-7 1 NC UFC vs. Thiago Alves 21-10 MMA 13-7 UFC- Miller last fought at UFC on Fox in August he beat Joe Lauzon via split decision. It was a rematch from UFC 155. It was a very close fight. Honestly it could have gone either way. Miller now has won two fights in a row. Alves last fought in May of 2015. He lost via doctor stoppage to Carlos Condit at UFC fight night. It was a very one sided fight. Condit just did what ever he wanted against Alves. Since than he’s dealt with injures causing another long lay off.

Looking at the striking numbers the power goes to Alves. He’s won twelve fight via knockout in his career. Miller has only won four. Both men are tough to finish. Aleves has only been knocked out twice. Miller only once. Miller has a one inch reach advantage. Miller style if very punch heavy. Alves has more of a muay thai style. Miller can not afford to take to many leg kicks by Alves. It seems that Alves has the advantage more power more diverse striker.

When it comes to the ground game it seems to favor Miller. Alves is from Brazil he holds a brown belt in BJJ how ever Miller is a black belt. By all account Miller’s is not just some paper black belt. Numbers wise Miller has 13 career submission wins. Alves only has two. Miller has been submitted twice. He also tapped out in his no contest before the result was changed. Alves has been submitted more times at four. Really again one of those cases where I am just giving the edge to Miller because he is more likely to use his wrestling and BJJ.

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Training Alves is a long time member of American Top Team. Just one of those camps that any given day any given time you will see world class talent. Miller spent most of his career AMA Fightclub more recently he’s been working with his own Miller Brothers MMA. Giving the edge to Alves. The X-Factors are Alves is cutting to 155 for the first time. He had issues making weight when he fought at 170. So he could come in really drained. Also Alves is coming in on a long layoff. I always favor the more active fighter. I think that weight cut winds up being to much for Alves. We also don’t know if Alves power will follow him down to lightweight. I think Miller will be able to get this fight to the ground and submit him.

Rafael Natal 21-7-1 MMA 9-4-1 UFC vs. Tim Boetsch 19-10 MMA 10-9 UFC- Natal last fought at UFC 197 in April. He lost a unanimous decision to Robert Whittaker. He had a five fight winning streak snapped. Boetsch last fought in July at a fight night. He KO’ed Josh Samman. Before that he had lost four in a row.

To me this this is a fairly simple fight to break down. Boetsch is the better striker has nine career knockouts. Natal has the grappling advantage with eight career submission wins. The style that gives Natal trouble is high volume and good wrestling. Boetsch is more of a single power punch guy. I think Natal will be able to get this fight to the ground. I think he will pick up a decision win.