UFC on Fox Johnson vs. Reis Picks

Back on the big fox network. We have a chance at history the pound for pound king looks to tie a record. Two top straweights battle in a key fight. The man who is viewed as the uncrowned champion in the middleweight division faces off with a dangerous young challenger with the power to derail his dreams. And finally one of the UFC’s longest stars faces a younger fighter looking and needing to make an impact.

UFC Flyweight Championship Demetrious Johnson (c) 25-2-1 MMA 12-1-1 UFC vs. Wilson Reis 22-6 MMA 6-2 UFC- Mighty Mouse Johnson is the best fighter in the world today. He is on a long winning streak he is the only man ever hold the Flyweight title. No other champion is even close to the number of defenses he’s made. He has won against just about every single type of fighter in every single way you can imagine. He has made it clear his goal is to break Anderson Silva’s record for most UFC title defenses. Well now he’s on the verge of tying that record. But last time he had a fairly rough fight. It was in December and he was matched up with Tim Elliot the winner of the most recent season of the Ultimate Fighter. Its one of those fights where everyone thought he was going to win easy and win early. Sometimes different factors play into a fight. Elliot entered that fight no real pressure he’s a very large fighter for the division go a very awkward stand up style and a good ground game. A few times Elliot manged to get DJ in trouble the fight went the full five rounds. Still though Johnson clearly won that fight and retained his title.

Reis at one point booked to challenge DJ for the title. However an injury to DJ along with the fact the winner of TUF was supposed to challenge for the flyweight belt it was called off. So his only real option was to keep fighting and keep winning. His last fight was in February at UFC 208 he dominated a fight Ulka Sasaki. He used great grappling to control the fight. Before that he fought at UFC 201 easily submitting Hector Sandvol in under two minutes. He’s on a three fight winning streak. And mainly thanks to the benefit of being a fresh name he’s getting a title shot because DJ has already beat Benvidez twice.

The striking aspect clearly favors Johnson. Might Mouse has five career knockouts he’s never been knocked in his career. We have only ever seen him rocked a few times that was against Brad Pickett and later against John Dodson two very heavy handed guys. Pickett was very early on in his career and Dodson has great speed that lets him catch little openings. A big key to Johnson’s success has been his clean technique. He’s not wild and looping he keeps a good guard. And he has power that can hurt people. Reis has never scored a knock out in his MMA career not even a ground and pound TKO. Now part of that is he is a very submission based fighter, so he’s not looking to strike. That said he’s been knocked out twice although both of those were back in 2011. He’s got a very wild technique when he does strike. The longer this fight is a kickboxing battle it favors the champion.

Reis has already called his shot saying he is going to submit Johnson. Reis has a BJJ blackbelt and in MMA he has ten career submission wins. He also never lost a MMA fight via submission. Johnson is no slouch when it comes to the submission game. He has nine career submission wins and he also has never submitted in a fight. Often in a situation like this the better wrestler gets the edge. And I think Johnson is the better wrestler. This very well could simply come down to who can keep the fight int eh position they want. Johnson may not even look for a take down but instead keep it standing and make the BJJ a non factor. Again advantage Johnson.

Looking at training Johnson is a student of Matt Hume at AMC Pankration. Hume has been with DJ a long time a case of two of near perfect student teacher relationship. Hume is an expert in every facoit of the game and Johnson works so hard to learn he can from him. Together they might have just made the perfect fighter. Reis trains with Alliance MMA and head coach Eric Del Fierro. That is another top gym in MMA Del Fierro is an elite coach who has worked with some of the best (mainly Dominick Cruz) and he actually has a win as a corner man over DJ and Hume. I gotta say toss up in terms of coaching you don’t get much better than Hume and Del Fierro.

To me the biggest X-Factor is no pressure on Reis. Johnson's not just excepted to win he’s expected in win easy. DJ is the one chasing history put a you have to wonder if “The champagne is already on ice.” And DJ talks about knowing he’s not a huge draw so he has to keep winning. Reis meanwhile no one thinks he can win no thinks he will win. But Chris Weidman UFC 162, Holly Holm UFC 193, Michael Bisping UFC 199. All fighters that people were going “Oh good for you getting a title shot… Hope you don’t get to embarrassed.”

End of the day thought I’m not picking against Demetrius Johnson unless I see something really special from the guy he is facing. I think Reis is a good fighter but I don’t think he’s good enough to be the man that topples Johnson. I think Johnson will keep this fight standing and that will allow him to get the win. I won’t be shocked if Johnson knocks him out. DJ wins he ties the record and they set him up to break it sometime during international fight week.

Rose Namajunas 5-3 MMA 3-2 UFC vs. Michelle Waterson 14-4 MMA 2-0 UFC- The Straweight Division has belonged to one person since the start of it. With Joanna Champion having already beaten so many top contenders it really just take one or two strong wins to be in the spot to challenge for the title. We also have a pretty good idea who the upper level talent is. These two both count as upper level. Waterson last fought in December in the main event of the last Fox card. She was paried up with Paige VanZant. Now Waterson saw that fight as the first step into becoming a superstar in her own right. She stayed lose and calm the whole weekend went in there got the fight to the ground and easily submitted PVZ. Namajunas last fought in July at UFC 201 she was matched up with Karolina Kowalkiewicz. And she couldn’t get anything going. Kowalkiewicz outstruck the fight never really got to the mat and she lost a clear decision. The good news for Namajunas she is young has tons of potential and if she can beat Waterson she is right back where she was before UFC 201.

This could be a very fun fight to watch when it comes to striking. Both women have backgrounds in traditional martial arts and throw some different strikes than the usual MMA fighters you see. Nieher fighter is really known for there power. Namajunas has never scored a knockout in her MMA career. Waterson only has three. In terms of who is more technical I say Waterson. Namajunas can be pretty technical but she has a tendency to get a bit wild when looking to press the action. To me this comes down to the old eye ball test. Waterson just appears to be a good enough counter striker that I think Namajuans falls into the same kind of trap she was in vs. Kowalkiewicz.

Both fighters have a great deal of talent on the ground. Namajunas has four career submission wins and has never lost via submission. Waterson has nine submission wins with two tap out losses. Again it feels like Waterson is more techila. But I think Namajuna will have an edge wrestling wise. She’s bigger. Waterson mostly has fought at atomweight. So I think it’s a slight edge to Namajunas.

Looking at training camps Waterson is a long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. She has a great well of coaches and training partners. She’s been there for years had a lot of success with them. Namajunas is a member of the Grudge Training Center in Colorado. That camp is run by Trevor Wittman. Its another very good camp Wittman has a great reputation. I am giving the edge to Waterson based on more over all success of the camp. To compare it to the NFL it’s like having Bill Bellicheck as your head coach your calling him the best no matter who he faces.

So the X-Factors the biggest one to me will be mental state and emotional reactions. Namajuna is know as a very emotional fighter. That can be a good thing but we have seen get overwhelmed. Waterson you never really see her get lose her composure. If this fight doesn’t got Waterson’s way early you feel she will go back to her corner get advice and still be able to win. If this fight doesn’t go Namajuans way early on she may be shot for the whole night. Advantage Waterson. The other x-factor is potential to get better. Namajunas is only 24 years old she’s only had a eight career fights 11 if you count TUF 20, she can still get better. Her coaches and others in the sport have said she’s still got tons of potential. Waterson is 31 she has 18 career fight in MMA she’ pretty locked into who she is as a fighter at this point. So if we see jump in talent or skills it will be from Namajunas so that is a advantage for Thug Rose.

When it comes to the pick I am have to go with Michelle Waterson. I just feel she got all the things that Namajunas struggles with. She’s technical, she very well rounded, she doesn’t get overly emotional. I think this fight goes all three rounds and its Waterson’s hand going up in the end.

Ronaldo Souza 24-4 1NC MMA 7-1 UFC vs. Robert Whittaker 17-4 MMA 8-2 UFC- There is no such thing as a risk free fight. For Jacare Souza he’s the man many view as the best middleweight in the world in order to get a title shot he’s got to keep winning. For Robert Whittaker he’s made himself a true contender. A win here though sends the message he should the one cutting the line. Souza last fought in February at UFC 208. He easily destroyed Tim Boestsch. Got him in a submission hold and nearly tore his arm off. He’s now back on a two fight winning streak with two first round finishes Whittaker last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. It was his first main event it was in his home town country of Australia and he was paried up with Derek Brunson. Early on he got rocked but manged to recover he started to land and knocked out Brunson.

The standup numbers favor Whittaker. He started in Karate at young age and has eight career knockout wins. The only person to every knock him out was Wonderboy Thompson when he was fighting at welterweight. Souza only has three knockout wins and he’s been knocked out twice. We also saw him get rocked in two other losses. That said Jacare has developed some very good standup. So I will give the edge Whittaker but Jacare can do damage. This could be a very close fight standing up. Jacare does have power its just he’s such expert at submissions he doesn’t really go for them he hurts you and takes you down. So slight edge to Whittaker.

There is no mistaking who has the edge in grappling Souza is one of the greatest Brazil Jiu-Jitsu competers ever. He won numerous world championships in BJJ tournaments all over the world. In MMA he has won via submission seventeen times. He has never been submitted in a MMA fight. Whitaker has five career submission wins and only been submitted once. But he is just not the level of grappler that Souza is. Souza also has very strong wrestling. Every second they tied up Whittaker is in the danger zone. Once this fight goes to the ground he’s got bust his ass to back up.

Looking at training Souza is member of X-Gym down in Brazil he also works with Blackhouse and trains with guys like Anderson Sivla, The Nogeria Brothers. Robert Whittaker is works with PMA Super Martial Arts in Austrila. No contest who the better gym is. Whittaker is the only big name that gym has produced so far.

Looking at the X-Factors I think the biggest one is the look ahead factor. Whittaker is still coming up the ranks. Each fight has been the biggest fight of his career. Souza fees slighted by the UFC. Could he already thinking “I’ll step in if GSP gets hurt” or already planning to call for a rematch with Romero or Rockhold? If he does he could leave himself open.

That said I’m picking Souza. You legit can say his is the best middleweight in the world. His lone loss in the UFC had some stuff go on and it was razor close. I don’t think Whittaker has a huge edge standing up and outside of a quick knockout it's impossible to keep Jacare off him and not have it go to the ground. Whittaker can be a champion someday but I think this is one of those fights where he learns how far he has to go. I think Jacare get in there drags Whittaker to the ground and submits him in one round.

UFC 210 Picks

For the first time since 1995 the UFC is in Buffalo. Which means at long last we have the perfect place to book that Shamrock vs. Taktarov rematch… I should not give Bellator ideas. Any way the light heavyweight title will be on the line. A key match up is set for the middleweights. Who be like the early 90’s Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game and who will be like the early 90’s Bills in the Superbowl?

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Daniel Cormier (c) 18-1 MMA 7-1 UFC vs. Anthony Johnson 22-5 MMA 13-5 UFC- May 23^rd 2015 UFC 187. Just weeks early Jon Jones was stripped of the Light Heavyweight title after a hit and run DUI. For the vacant title the UFC has matched Cormier and Johnson. For both it’s a chance at redemption. Cormier despite a brilliant wrestling career never won a championship in the NCAA or World Championships. He had also missed Olympic team in 2008. Earlier that year Cormier had lost a bitter grudge match when he challenged Jones for the title. Johnson he had been fired from the UFC years earlier after missing weight time again while attempting to compete at lower weight classes. Early on Johnson who is a close to Mike Tyson as MMA has drops Cormier with a powerful over hand right. It looks like Cormier is done. But DC dug deep and was able to recover. Johnson starts to get wild and that lets Cormier start to wrestle. He gets real heavy on Johnson starts beating him up with ground and pound. Going into round two you could tell Johnson’s gas tank was already on E. He lasted another five minutes but in the third another take down this time Cormier starts working for a submission gets the rear naked choke in and wins the title.

Cormier last fought back at UFC 200. It was supposed to be his rematch with Jones, than news breaks that Jones has been flagged by USADA for a banned substance. If you watch UFC Embedded you saw Cormier get so emotional when he found out. He even wanted to sign a wavier and still fight Jones. Instead he was matched up with Anderson Silva and we got a real basic game plan. He took Silva down and held him down. DC has now won three fights in a row since the loss to Jones. Johnson was last booked to fight at UFC 202 in August. He took thirteen seconds to knockout Glovier Treixiera. He is 3-0 since UFC 187. He’s won all three via knockout that said he has not dealt with really good wrestling since Corimer. Manuwa and Trexiera are not wrestlers and Bader only got a really sloppy shot in.

When it comes to the striking it all favors Anthony Johnson. He has sixteen career knockouts and only been knocked out once. The guy has true one shot power if he lands clean he can knockout just about anyone. We saw him nearly knockout Cormier in the first fight. And even if he can’t knock you out he can put a lot of guys into a shell where they are to worried about what is coming to attack. Cormier only has six career knockouts. Now there is no denying he’s got great power but I don’t think anyone wants to trade with Johnson for long. Another issue is Cormier is a much taller man and will also have a five and a half inch reach advantage. DC is mostly a boxer so any striking means he much trade to wade in. DC must have survived once but its like falling off a building do you really want to try it again. Also more and more DC seems more hittaboild he got dropped at UFC 187, he was also nearly knocked out vs. Gufsston and Silva hurt him with body strikes.

Grapping is where Daniel Cormier has a huge advantage. He was much higher level wrestler in the amauture ranks. DC was a division one standout he was on the US national team. Johnson was a junior college wrestler. The problem is why Johnson can wrestle he’s not really doing it. It the curse of that knockout power. He’s putting so much into striking he’s not thinking “Oh I should mix in a takedown.” When it comes to submission its all Cormier. DC has five career submission wins including the first fight with Johnson. Rumble has never won a fight via submission and has been submitted four times in his career. Now since the first fight with Cormier, Johnson has worked on is wrestling he’s even brought in his own coach. Also Cormier has vowed to not wrestle in this fight. That said, I would think DC is all talk when it comes to not wrestling. And we aren’t sure how much Johnson has really improved. Plus you see a pattern when Johnson is takendown its usually the beginning of the end.

Looking at training Cormier is a long time member of the American Kickboxing Academy. Javier Mendez has turned some of the best prospects in MMA into the top fighters in the world. High level guys call that gym home including Cain Velasquez and Luke Rockhold. That have top level striking and grappling coaches. They bring in guys from Glory or Word champion Wrestlers to help in camps. They do high injury rate which you do worry how healthy DC is. Yes I know no fighter is 100% healthy going into the cage but AKA bangs guys up. Johnson has been a member of the Blackzillans but that team appears to be gone. Now he’s worked a lot with Henry Hooft its unclear if Hooft is still with him. Injury risk or not edge goes to Cormier.

One X-factor will be cardio. Johnson is a sprinter. He goes all out hunting the knockout and we have seen a few times in his career as the fight goes or if he is taken down and forced to carry someone he tires out. Its not an issue of not being in great shape but it is a style issue. He’s not going turn a Diaz brother style guy. So edge to Cormier. Activity level is another X-Factor. Johnson has one more fight. But it appears he has been healthier. Cormier was supposed to fight Jones at UFC 197 got hurt didn’t fight. This rematch was booked originally at UFC 206 again Cormier hurt pushing it to now. When you are hurt you are rehabbing not improving. So edge to Johnson.

Can Anthony Johnson land that one big blow and finish the fight before Cormier can get it to the ground? I say he can’t. I think Cormier will go right into wrestle mooed. I think once again he wears Johnson down and gets a submission win. I won’t be shocked if Johnson wins but I just think this fight will a repeat of the first one.

Chris Weidman 13-2 MMA 9-2 UFC vs. Gegard Mousasi 41-6-2 MMA 8-3 UFC- The middleweight division is in a log jam right now. We have two men that both should get a title shot but with the champion dealing with an injury at the start of the year and now booked for a big payday it actually creates a big chance for these two. This gives them a chance to move up the rankings and wind in a position if stuff happens. Maybe Jacare gets upset in his next fight maybe Romero gets hurt. Or hey Maybe Romero or Jacare want to stay busy and the winner winds up in a title eliminator later this year. You just never know what could happen in this division. Hell the current champion had the dominoes fall to get his title shot after a long career.

Mousasi last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. It was a rematch with Uriah Hall. Back in 2015 they Hall had upset Mousasi in a fight. Now since than Mousasi had looked great why Hall had struggled. So there was a real risk and you just never know with a guy like Hall his style and size makes him dangerous. Mousasi though has problems in the rematch. Used his great technical striking to dominate and knocks Hall out right at the end of the first round. The Dutchman has now won four in a row with three straight knockout finishes. On the flip side nothing has gone right for Chris Weidman. 2015 ends with him being destroyed by Luke Rockhold losing his championship and perfect record. He had to pull out of the rematch with an injury. Than in November UFC 205 he gets a chance to fight in New York but he faces off with Yoel Romero. He just mistimes a takedown eats a huge jump knee and is left a bloody mess.

When it comes to striking it a big check mark for Mousasi. He’s got the backround in both boxing and kickboxing even fighting in K-1. He’s got very good technical striking. So he keeps everything in very straight and protects himself well. He’s got a total of twenty two career knockout wins and only been knocked out once. Weidman is more of a brawler. He’s got good power with six career knockouts but also lost both fights his career by knockout. Ray Longo has a good reputation as a coach but Weidman pretty much just like to swing away. Famously at UFC 194 he threw that awful spin kick got taken down because it was so sloppy. So yeah the stand up advantage belongs to Mousasi.

The interesting thing is both men have backgrounds in grappling arts. Mousasi has been training judo since he was a teen and hold a blackbelt in the art form. Weidman was an all American wrestler. Now in terms of MMA Mousasi has twelve career submission win with only three career submission losses. Weidman has three career submission wins and has never been submitted. We don’t really see Mousasis go for takedown its more he will seek to get control once it goes down. I think Weidman is also the stronger man. So I am giving the edge to Weidman in the grappling department.

So looking at training Weidman has spent his entire career at Serra-Longo. Matt Serra and Ray Longo have a lot of experience and took him to a world title. But we have also see that team struggle a lot lately. How much have been able to help Weidman improve or get him over the losses? One thing that should help Weidman is the high level of training partners he has. Both his buddies Gian Villiante and Stephen Thompson had big fights recently and were in camp about the same time. Mousasis has his own team back home. Really it’s worked well for him. Why we may not see the whose who in his training footage no denying he’s had success. So I actually want to say its a draw.

To me the single biggest X-Factor is the mental state. After Mousasis lost that first fight with Uriah Hall he clearly said to himself “No more setbacks. I am going to let it all go.” And he’s looked so great. Meanwhile Weidman didn’t look to hesitant vs. Romero but you wonder after getting knocked like how he was will he be a little more shy on pulling the trigger? To me that says Advantage Mousasis.

It feels like to win Weidman is going to have make it a brawl on the feet and engage in hard scrambles. The problem is I don’t feel Mousasis will brawl unless Weidman really just traps him and even hurts him which is easier said than done. Why Mousasis may not have the wrestling background he’s a very good MMA wrestler and an experienced fighter. I think they goes the distance and Mousasis picks up the decision win.