UFC 210 Picks

For the first time since 1995 the UFC is in Buffalo. Which means at long last we have the perfect place to book that Shamrock vs. Taktarov rematch… I should not give Bellator ideas. Any way the light heavyweight title will be on the line. A key match up is set for the middleweights. Who be like the early 90’s Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game and who will be like the early 90’s Bills in the Superbowl?

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Daniel Cormier (c) 18-1 MMA 7-1 UFC vs. Anthony Johnson 22-5 MMA 13-5 UFC- May 23^rd 2015 UFC 187. Just weeks early Jon Jones was stripped of the Light Heavyweight title after a hit and run DUI. For the vacant title the UFC has matched Cormier and Johnson. For both it’s a chance at redemption. Cormier despite a brilliant wrestling career never won a championship in the NCAA or World Championships. He had also missed Olympic team in 2008. Earlier that year Cormier had lost a bitter grudge match when he challenged Jones for the title. Johnson he had been fired from the UFC years earlier after missing weight time again while attempting to compete at lower weight classes. Early on Johnson who is a close to Mike Tyson as MMA has drops Cormier with a powerful over hand right. It looks like Cormier is done. But DC dug deep and was able to recover. Johnson starts to get wild and that lets Cormier start to wrestle. He gets real heavy on Johnson starts beating him up with ground and pound. Going into round two you could tell Johnson’s gas tank was already on E. He lasted another five minutes but in the third another take down this time Cormier starts working for a submission gets the rear naked choke in and wins the title.

Cormier last fought back at UFC 200. It was supposed to be his rematch with Jones, than news breaks that Jones has been flagged by USADA for a banned substance. If you watch UFC Embedded you saw Cormier get so emotional when he found out. He even wanted to sign a wavier and still fight Jones. Instead he was matched up with Anderson Silva and we got a real basic game plan. He took Silva down and held him down. DC has now won three fights in a row since the loss to Jones. Johnson was last booked to fight at UFC 202 in August. He took thirteen seconds to knockout Glovier Treixiera. He is 3-0 since UFC 187. He’s won all three via knockout that said he has not dealt with really good wrestling since Corimer. Manuwa and Trexiera are not wrestlers and Bader only got a really sloppy shot in.

When it comes to the striking it all favors Anthony Johnson. He has sixteen career knockouts and only been knocked out once. The guy has true one shot power if he lands clean he can knockout just about anyone. We saw him nearly knockout Cormier in the first fight. And even if he can’t knock you out he can put a lot of guys into a shell where they are to worried about what is coming to attack. Cormier only has six career knockouts. Now there is no denying he’s got great power but I don’t think anyone wants to trade with Johnson for long. Another issue is Cormier is a much taller man and will also have a five and a half inch reach advantage. DC is mostly a boxer so any striking means he much trade to wade in. DC must have survived once but its like falling off a building do you really want to try it again. Also more and more DC seems more hittaboild he got dropped at UFC 187, he was also nearly knocked out vs. Gufsston and Silva hurt him with body strikes.

Grapping is where Daniel Cormier has a huge advantage. He was much higher level wrestler in the amauture ranks. DC was a division one standout he was on the US national team. Johnson was a junior college wrestler. The problem is why Johnson can wrestle he’s not really doing it. It the curse of that knockout power. He’s putting so much into striking he’s not thinking “Oh I should mix in a takedown.” When it comes to submission its all Cormier. DC has five career submission wins including the first fight with Johnson. Rumble has never won a fight via submission and has been submitted four times in his career. Now since the first fight with Cormier, Johnson has worked on is wrestling he’s even brought in his own coach. Also Cormier has vowed to not wrestle in this fight. That said, I would think DC is all talk when it comes to not wrestling. And we aren’t sure how much Johnson has really improved. Plus you see a pattern when Johnson is takendown its usually the beginning of the end.

Looking at training Cormier is a long time member of the American Kickboxing Academy. Javier Mendez has turned some of the best prospects in MMA into the top fighters in the world. High level guys call that gym home including Cain Velasquez and Luke Rockhold. That have top level striking and grappling coaches. They bring in guys from Glory or Word champion Wrestlers to help in camps. They do high injury rate which you do worry how healthy DC is. Yes I know no fighter is 100% healthy going into the cage but AKA bangs guys up. Johnson has been a member of the Blackzillans but that team appears to be gone. Now he’s worked a lot with Henry Hooft its unclear if Hooft is still with him. Injury risk or not edge goes to Cormier.

One X-factor will be cardio. Johnson is a sprinter. He goes all out hunting the knockout and we have seen a few times in his career as the fight goes or if he is taken down and forced to carry someone he tires out. Its not an issue of not being in great shape but it is a style issue. He’s not going turn a Diaz brother style guy. So edge to Cormier. Activity level is another X-Factor. Johnson has one more fight. But it appears he has been healthier. Cormier was supposed to fight Jones at UFC 197 got hurt didn’t fight. This rematch was booked originally at UFC 206 again Cormier hurt pushing it to now. When you are hurt you are rehabbing not improving. So edge to Johnson.

Can Anthony Johnson land that one big blow and finish the fight before Cormier can get it to the ground? I say he can’t. I think Cormier will go right into wrestle mooed. I think once again he wears Johnson down and gets a submission win. I won’t be shocked if Johnson wins but I just think this fight will a repeat of the first one.

Chris Weidman 13-2 MMA 9-2 UFC vs. Gegard Mousasi 41-6-2 MMA 8-3 UFC- The middleweight division is in a log jam right now. We have two men that both should get a title shot but with the champion dealing with an injury at the start of the year and now booked for a big payday it actually creates a big chance for these two. This gives them a chance to move up the rankings and wind in a position if stuff happens. Maybe Jacare gets upset in his next fight maybe Romero gets hurt. Or hey Maybe Romero or Jacare want to stay busy and the winner winds up in a title eliminator later this year. You just never know what could happen in this division. Hell the current champion had the dominoes fall to get his title shot after a long career.

Mousasi last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. It was a rematch with Uriah Hall. Back in 2015 they Hall had upset Mousasi in a fight. Now since than Mousasi had looked great why Hall had struggled. So there was a real risk and you just never know with a guy like Hall his style and size makes him dangerous. Mousasi though has problems in the rematch. Used his great technical striking to dominate and knocks Hall out right at the end of the first round. The Dutchman has now won four in a row with three straight knockout finishes. On the flip side nothing has gone right for Chris Weidman. 2015 ends with him being destroyed by Luke Rockhold losing his championship and perfect record. He had to pull out of the rematch with an injury. Than in November UFC 205 he gets a chance to fight in New York but he faces off with Yoel Romero. He just mistimes a takedown eats a huge jump knee and is left a bloody mess.

When it comes to striking it a big check mark for Mousasi. He’s got the backround in both boxing and kickboxing even fighting in K-1. He’s got very good technical striking. So he keeps everything in very straight and protects himself well. He’s got a total of twenty two career knockout wins and only been knocked out once. Weidman is more of a brawler. He’s got good power with six career knockouts but also lost both fights his career by knockout. Ray Longo has a good reputation as a coach but Weidman pretty much just like to swing away. Famously at UFC 194 he threw that awful spin kick got taken down because it was so sloppy. So yeah the stand up advantage belongs to Mousasi.

The interesting thing is both men have backgrounds in grappling arts. Mousasi has been training judo since he was a teen and hold a blackbelt in the art form. Weidman was an all American wrestler. Now in terms of MMA Mousasi has twelve career submission win with only three career submission losses. Weidman has three career submission wins and has never been submitted. We don’t really see Mousasis go for takedown its more he will seek to get control once it goes down. I think Weidman is also the stronger man. So I am giving the edge to Weidman in the grappling department.

So looking at training Weidman has spent his entire career at Serra-Longo. Matt Serra and Ray Longo have a lot of experience and took him to a world title. But we have also see that team struggle a lot lately. How much have been able to help Weidman improve or get him over the losses? One thing that should help Weidman is the high level of training partners he has. Both his buddies Gian Villiante and Stephen Thompson had big fights recently and were in camp about the same time. Mousasis has his own team back home. Really it’s worked well for him. Why we may not see the whose who in his training footage no denying he’s had success. So I actually want to say its a draw.

To me the single biggest X-Factor is the mental state. After Mousasis lost that first fight with Uriah Hall he clearly said to himself “No more setbacks. I am going to let it all go.” And he’s looked so great. Meanwhile Weidman didn’t look to hesitant vs. Romero but you wonder after getting knocked like how he was will he be a little more shy on pulling the trigger? To me that says Advantage Mousasis.

It feels like to win Weidman is going to have make it a brawl on the feet and engage in hard scrambles. The problem is I don’t feel Mousasis will brawl unless Weidman really just traps him and even hurts him which is easier said than done. Why Mousasis may not have the wrestling background he’s a very good MMA wrestler and an experienced fighter. I think they goes the distance and Mousasis picks up the decision win.