UFC 209 Picks

After a slow start to the year UFC shifts into high gear. A rematch of a Fight of the Year Contender, a highly anticipated fight years in the making. After much delay a former world champion looks for a new start and a heavyweight don’t blink fight.

UFC Welterweight Championship Tyron Woodley (c) 16-3-1 MMA 6-2-1 UFC vs. Stephen Thompson 13-1-1 MMA 8-1-1 UFC- We waited decades for MMA to arrive in New York City. We only needed to wait for the first co-main event to get the first true classic. The fight between these two had been highly anticipated we thought Thompson was the perfect guy to really give Woodley challenges yet we knew Woodley was no push over and could give Thompson issues. Round one pretty event until Thompson throws a big kick and Woodley catches it and gets the takedown. Rounds two and three Thompson works more of a boxing game plan and Woodley doesn’t wrestle. Round four though Woodley badly hurt Thompson with a punch and gets him in a choke. You are left to wonder what the hell is Thompson’s neck made out of for him to not tap or go out. Round five they are back standing and they go the distance. So we as we wait for the scores to be collected you are going ok was four a 10-8? How much does the takedown in the first count towards winning? Did Thompson do enough to win three rounds? In end the fight was ruled a draw. After some drama with Woodley once again asking for “Money” fights we are getting the rematch.

Both these men have great stand up. Woodley is much more boxing based he often talks about wanting to be like Ali or Tyson. As a result he’s mostly throwing punches and moving on his feet. He’s got great power in those hands. Six career knockouts including finishing Robbie Lawler. He’s only been knocked out once in his career and that was back in 2012 in Strikeforce. Thompson Karate blackbelt undefeated kickboxer. As a result he uses his legs much more. Often in MMA when you are talking about kicks its a round house kick with a few front kicks. Thompson though is throwing side kicks and he spins and he hits a hook or a crescent kick. He has seven career knockouts in MMA including the only man to finish Johnny Hendricks. Now in the past Woodley has issues with kickers that can keep him out of boxing range. That said first fight big key Thompson throws a kick it gets caught and taken down. Also Woodley hurt Thompson with a punch. So what kind of adjustments does Thompson make. If I were his coach I would be telling him “Round 1 we box a lot once we got him used us boxing than we mixing in the kicks.” Not saying Woodley can’t do damage standing up but I still say Thompson is the better striker. I always lean towards the more diverse and experienced striker.

Woodley has the wrestling background he went the Missouri he wrestled and achieved success in some huge tournaments. Thompson doesn’t not have a wrestling background. In his one MMA loss he was taken down and held down. Now we have seen him work on his wrestling greatly since than. He has faced some very good wrestlers like Jake Ellenberger and Johnny Hendricks and not go down. Now Woodley did take him down in the first fight. Part of that was due to a kick being caught and him being hurt. The submission numbers favor Woodley he has five career submission win and Thompson only has one. Also in the first fight Woodley had a deep choke in. Woodley even said a big mistake in the first fight was not wrestling more. Edge goes to him in grappling and he should grapple.

Both these men have a similar approach to training. Both stay close to home and mostly train out of a smaller gym yet they spend time with bigger gyms when they have a fight coming up. It allows them to have the best of both worlds. Focus on them yet also working with elite coaches and fighters. Woodley has his own ATT Midwest Gym. In the past he’s had camp at American Top Team. I’m not sure how often if he even goes to ATT anymore. How ever he started to work a great deal with Duke Rousfus and heads to Roufus Sport. Before the first fight he worked with Sage Northcutt who has a sport Karate background like Thompson. Roufus Sport also has many high level guys. Also Roufus has a great striking background in his own right he can pick up things Thompson does.

Thompson works with Upstate MMA and is mainly coached by his father Ray. Now Ray also has a background as a kickboxer and has been his son’s coach his whole life during his successful career. So it’s not a case of neoptisim. Thompson will also spend time at Serra-Longo he very close with Chris Wediman. Weidman is a great wrestler and we have seen Thompson’s wrestling improve. Both camps have had a lot of success but I think real edge will be Duke Rousfus who might be the best coach in MMA and he will be in Woodley’s corner.

The biggest X-Factor is its a rematch and who does that favor. Many seem to think that is Woodley. Thompson has an unusual style that getting a second look at will really help. Myself I actually think it favors Thompson. If you re-watch the first fight Thompson didn’t throw many kicks after round one. I think if he’s smarter about using them he can really do some damage. Woodley may have gotten a look at Thompson but that also means Thompson now has felt his power knows his timing, understand how he works. The other big X-factor is cardio. We have seen Woodley gas out several times in his career and that is in three round fights. Now he didn’t really gas out in the first fight but he fights in a style that is more likely to cause him to gas out. Robin Black made a great comparison to Wilder saying he’s a sprinter. He jumps in goes as fast and as powerful as he can. But if he starts to miss that power and speed is going to be gone.

I picked Stephen Thompson in the first fight. I gave him three rounds in the first fight. I am picking Thompson once again. I just don’t trust Woodley’s gas tank. I think Thompson style is going to give Woodley problems. I also think Woodley is going to count to much on the idea “I hurt him in the first fight.” Woodley doesn’t wrestle enough anymore. I see Thompson dragging this into the fourth round by than Woodley will be tired and will get knocked out.

Interim UFC Lightweight Championship Khabib Nurmagomedov 24-0 MMA 8-0 UFC vs. Tony Ferguson 22-3 MMA 12-1 UFC- Some people are upset that is for an interim title I say why bitch about getting potentially five rounds with these two. This has been a fight that’s been booked a few times but injures kept causing it be called off. Now we are finally getting it and these guys both believe they are best fighter in the world at lightweight. Nurmaaomedov last fought at UFC 205 in November. He was paired up with Michael Johnson. Early on he was rocked on his feet. However he recovered and one he took Johnson down it was total domination. He landed some crushing ground and pound. Once he had Johnson hurt he locked in kimura and got a submission win. More importantly he fought twice in 16 after missing most of 14 and all of 15 due to injures. Ferguson had fought a week earlier he faced off with former champion Rafael dos Anjos. He made the former champion look second rate. All night he out struck RDA controlled the grappling He’s now won nine in a row.

I don’t think there is any mistake that Ferguson should have the advantage standing up. In terms of KO/TKO’s Ferguson has nine to Khabis’s eight. But all of Khabib’s are ground and pound. Ferguson can do his damage in a kickboxing or boxing exchange. Also Ferguson has a very unorthodox style when it comes to his stand up. Khabib has good stand up but he if there is a flaw in his game its he mostly wants to strike just enough to set up a take down. We also saw him get clipped by Johnson, Ferguson has better power and he’s going to be more diverse.

When it comes to grappling the edge appears to go toNurmajomedov. The man has a long history of wrestling and sambo before his MMA career began. Now in terms of submission numbers win each man has eight. Ferguson has lost once via submission but that was way back in 2009 before his UFC career got started. Now I would say that Freguson is the better BJJ guy. He’s very tricky much like his stand up his does things you don’t expect. He’s also very good off his back. That said Nurmajomedov has amazing control on the ground it’s almost like he’s a middleweight holding down smaller guys. Also Nurmagomedov has very good submissions and should be able to protect himself. Edge to the Russian Eagle.

In terms of training Khabib trains in Russia but he also spends time with AKA. He’s just not just some homer in Russia he’s got a good young growing team over with guys that are reaching the UFC or Bellator or WSOF. AKA one of the best teams in MMA. Freguson mixes it up he works he one of the last guys traveling a bit more where his Boxing is one place, his kickboxing is another and BJJ is across town. I like when guys keep there training in really only one (or in Khabib’s case two) camps. So edge to Nurmajomedov.

The biggest X-factor to me is who is more worried about Conor McGregor. The winner is supposed to face Connor. Ferguson we see get riled up he calls Conor a few different names but than he also seems pretty laid back. Numbarmodov was so worried about Conor he was yelling to Dana White about him during the Johnson fight. Tony comes off like he’s almost going to enjoy trash talking with Conor. Khabib seems like he’s pissed Conor isn’t bowing down to him. If you look past anyone you can pay. Edge to Ferguson. The other big x-factor is simply recent work. Nurmagomedov dealt with a lot of injures the last few years. Since coming back he beat an over matched guy who on short notice and than looked shaky Johnson. Ferguson had one bad scare but has looked so strong lately. He’s shown so much improvement why we really haven’t seen Nurmagamedov appear to improve. Edge Ferguson.

I am picking Tony Ferguson to win this. I think he’s on a roll that should be getting more hype. I think he will flow in the striking be able to keep it competitive in the grappling. The longer is goes he will show superior cardio. I think by the fourth round He will stop hurt Khabib get it to the ground and submit him.

Rashad Evans 19-5-1 MMA 14-5-1 UFC vs. Dan Kelly 12-1 MMA 5-1 UFC- Is the third time the charm for Evans Middleweight debut? For those that don’t know Evan was set to face Tim Kennedy at UFC 205 than the New York commission saw something on an MRI they didn’t like. So the fight was rebooked for UFC 206 and the Ontario commission said they wouldn’t let him fight. We Nevada apparently has given him the all clear. Evans last actually fought in April on a FOX network card. He lost in less than two mintues when Glover Teixira knocked him out. It was the second knockout loss of career. It was also his second straight loss. Since returning from a leg injury it seems Evans has lost a great death of the athleticism that was his trademark and greatest advantage over man. Kelly last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. He beat Chris Camozzi. He used his Judo to control the fight and get a decision win. He’s now won three wins in a row since he’s lone career loss.

The power numbers favor Evans. He has eight career knockout wins and Kelly only has three. Kelly’s lone career loss is via knockout. Evans only has two knockout losses in a much longer career. Evans will also have a two inch reach advantage. Evans should be able to control this fight standing up even if he is reduced in the spring he used to have.

Grappling should be where Kelly has an advantage. He has a long back round of Judo. Four times he was part of Australia's judo team. Now Evans does have back round as a wrestler. But as his MMA career has gone on he wrestles less and less. Also I don’t know how many guys in MMA really have gotten used to judo because when we thinking takedown a lot of it’s wrestling based. Numbers wise it says advantage Kelly as Evans only has one submission win. Kelly has give but Kelly has far fewer fights so he has a pretty good rate. So if they do tie up it could be a rougher than expected night for Evans.

In terms of training its kind of strange. Evans was a founding member of the Blackzillians that team is pretty much gone. Henry Hooft has opened his own gym but it’s not clear if Evans is there. Evans has also been training with Vitor Belfort at Belfort’s own gym. Kelly is with Resilience Training Center in Austrila. So it appears Evans could be training with more renowned coaches and higher level training partners. But it’s not clear how stable that is. So I am leaning towards Kelly.

Looking at X-Factors its not an issue of age but simple who appears to have had the harder miles on the odomator. Evans is two years younger but has been dealing with a bad leg injury. Now his style is do dependent on being able to get off first have that quick step and explode into his strikes and take downs. He’s 37 and most athletes would be in trouble already in terms of a decline. Now he’s got added issue of the leg problem and when you blow out a leg like he did you may never be the same. Kelly is older it seems his style works better for an older fighter.

This is a case of match making that either way give the UFC a positive spin. If Kelly wins it’s “He just beat a former world champion.” If Evans wins it’s “Evans just beat a tough fighter with a great record.” So which is more likely? I just feel Evans is done. I think the inures and just natural aging have taken him out of the sport and Kelly will grind out a decision win.

Alistair Overeem 41-15 1 NC MMA 6-4 UFC vs. Mark Hunt 12-10-1 1 NC UFC- This is actually a rematch. Way back in 2008 in Dream these two fought in MMA which saw The Reem win via submission. Since than a lot has happened. Both men have has ups down and battles in and out of the cage. Hunt last fought in July at UFC 200. At first it was a loss to Brock Lesnar how ever that has been over turned to a no contest when Brock failed two PED tests. Before that Hunt was on a two fight winning streak but both wins were against Bigfoot Silva and Frank Mir who aren’t really top level guys anymore. Before that he had been mauled by Miocic and than KO’ed by Werdum. Overeem last fought in September at UFC 204. He challenged Stipie Miocic for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Early on he hurt the champion with a body kick and than dropped him with a big punch before getting him in a guillotine. However Miocic escaped than we saw Overeem fight really stupid. He was running around the cagehad really lazy defense. He was throwing wild wide punches. Than he threw a really lazy side kick. Easily he got taken down and Miocic knocked him out with group and pound. Before that he was on a three fight winning streak with three knockouts.

Both these men are known for there striking. Both men were the K-1 grand prix champion. But we have different styles. Hunt very much about the power punches with a crushing leg kick. Reem more of the Dutch Style Thai Boxer working in boxing with hard brutal knees. So you say Reem is the more diverse striker. In MMA Overeem has eighteen career knockout but he has also been knocked out ten times. In kickboxing he has seven KO wins but three KO losses. Hunt in MMA he has nine career knockouts with four knockouts. In kickboxing he has 13 career KO win with only two losses but Hunt has more kickboxing fights. Both men are able to damage you when they land one strike. In a case like this I am looking at at the defense. Reem has has man moment where he’s just looked so sloppy. When he fought Bigfoot was lazy got KO’ed, vs. Browne got cocky dropped his hands got KO’ed, vs Rothwell he left the guard opened KO’ed. And well last time out. Hunt only needs one chance to hit you to end the night. Advantage Hunt.

Anytime you have two high level strikers the ground game could be the key. Huge numbers advantage for Overeem when it comes to the ground game. He has nineteen career submission wins against two submission loses. No the Reem has not scored a submission wins since 2009 but we did see him go for one last time out. Hunt never scored a submission win and has six career submission losses. That said Hunt has worked a great deal on his ground game since coming to the UFC. He has not been submitted since 2010. Another key will be the wrestling. The fighters that give Hunt a lot of problems are usually very strong wrestlers. Reem really doesn’t have the wrestling. Reem will have the edge but it might be hard for him to get the fight to the ground. He can and will use trips but he will have to time those very well.

Looking at training Overeem is another fighter splitting time. He has a team in the Netherlands but than does camps at Jackson Winkeljohn. We know how good that team is. He really looked great with them. It seemed until the Miocic fight they kept some Overeem’s bad habits under control. Hunt mainly trains at home in Australia. So I have to give the edge to Overeem. He’s got the best team in the world.

One big X-Factor will be where is Mark Hunt’s head at. Going into UFC 200 he said fully aware that Brock Lesnar’s USADA window had been waved. He was also going around saying “I know Brock is on steroids I will just knock him out.” Yet than he lost originally and than the failed test came out. He started demanding a release and all of Brock’s purse. He than refused to take fight. And is now saying he had to take this fight. He’s also warning Reem not to fail a drug test. If he’s more worried about all of this it could really cost him. So advantage Overeem. Now another X-Factor is something I have already talked about and that is Overeem habits to get sloppy. Against someone like Mark who time and again has show the ability to hit that over hand right and knock someone out cold its to big a risk.

During his reality show Overeem pointed out that every fight for a heavyweight at this level is 50 50. Frankly I think Overeem is the better fighter. But I just have this vision of him getting to cocky and than bang overhand right. Still though I am going to pick Overeem. He is more diverse as a striker and he’s taller. He could also take Hunt off his game by just threatening to take it to the ground. I think Reem can wear Hunt down enough to get a third round TKO.