UFC 211 Picks

The UFC has a fairly slow start to the year. But that ends here we got a loaded card. We even lost a high level fight due to a USADA flag and its still a great card.

UFC Heavyweight Championship Stipe Miocic © 16-2 MMA 10-2 UFC vs. Junior dos Santos 18-4 MMA 12-3 UFC- December 14^th 2014 these two men met in the main event of a UFC on Fox card. The story going in was Miocic the young fighter everyone thought would be champion one day taking JDS the former champion had just lost the third fight with Velasquez. It was actually a very exciting fight. It was very close and I remember that night scoring it for Miocic as I think a lot of people did. However the judges scored it for dos Santos giving him a win. But this sport’s path is rarely a straight line. JDS has dealt with injures limiting him to only two fights since than. Stipe goes on a roll just tearing through guys and well here we now. Miocic is champion.

Miocic last fought in September at UFC 203. It was his first title defense and he was paired up with Alistair Overeem. He had some real pressure on him. The show was held in his home town of Cleveland. That can actually be something of curse. Early on got hurt badly by a big body kick and than was knocked down with a right hand. Than he was caught in the Guillotine choke. He managed to escape got back up and than started to hurt Overeem. He eventually got the fight down to the ground got mount and finished it with sledge hammer like ground and pound. He’s now won four in a row all via knockout and the last three have all been in the first round. JDS last fought in April at a Fight Night. He was paired up with Ben Rothwell. Going into the that fight Rothwell had won four in a row having finished all four. But dos Santos came in and fought a near perfect fight. He used his footwork and kept Rothwell off him. He mixed in kicks so the right never became a brawl. JDS scored a decision win and with a prior win over the champion he’s getting the chance to win back the title he once held.

When you talk about the stand up debate you have two the two best boxers in all of MMA and easily the best two in the heavyweight division. Miocic is a former golden gloves champion. Dos Santos early on in his UFC career showed some brilliant footwork and really dominated guys with only punches. That said both men have great kicks as well. Miocic has leg kicks that are devastating and JDS manged to KO Mark Hunt with one and vs. Rothwell sent him flying with a side kick. In terms of the knockout power Miocic has twelve career knockouts eight of which are in the UFC and in his MMA career eight are in the first round. He has one career loss via knockout. Dos Santos also has twelve career knockout wins in his career. Seven in the UFC with in the UFC. He’s been knocked out twice in his UFC career. Now in terms of technical skill I would say dos Santos is better on that end but Miocic has really freaky power. For example if you go back and watch his title win he won going backwards with a punch he didn’t fully get to extend. That said cleaner technique often can land first and harder. So I am calling ti a draw standing up.

We often don’t see see either guy on the ground unless it to finish a guy with ground and pound. Junior dos Santos does have a BJJ black belt but he only has two career submission wins and one of those was off an injury. He’s only been submitted once in his career that was way back in 2007 very early in his career. Miocic does have some very good wrestling in but his lone submission win was off of hitting a guys with leg kick and forcing him to quit. JDS has shown very good takedown defense but we did see in the second and third Velasquez fights making him wrestle can tire him out. Again I m lean towards giving the edge to Miocic in that I think he will be looking to grapple more. JDS might only grapple when forced to.

Looking at training Miocic is the stand out member of the Ohio based Strong Style Fight Team. That is the team he has spent his whole career with. Really outside of Jessica Eye he is the only fighter fro that team to reach a national promotion. Dos Santos is training with American Top Team. ATT one of the oldest and most successful training camps in MMA. Now for a long time I’ve always felt the bigger team with the more renowned coaches and more high level training partners is the advantage. However we have seen more and more fighters either move to a smaller team or start mixing it up spending some time with a big team but staying close to home. Also JDS has moved around a bit in recent years also spending time with first team, Nova Uno, and now ATT. Miocic’s coaches have been around him so long they know his good days and bad days. ATT’s staff may still be learning about dos Santos. That said he’s now been with them a few camps. Also I still think ATT has better coaches. So slight edge to JDS.

When we get to X-Factor its who is the fresher fighter? Age wise Miocic is older by a few months but often in MMA its not a case of ow many miles on the odomator but how hard have the miles been? JDS has been in more fights and frankly taken a lot of damage in his career. I don’t think he’s ever been quite the same since the second fight with Velasquez where he took a large amount of punishment. He also was badly beat up in the third fight with the two. The first fight with Miocic was the kind of action fight where both men wind up feeling it for a while. He also was pretty beat up after the fight with Hunt and than KO’ed against the Reem. Miocic did get KO’ed vs. Struve but other than that and the fist JDS fight’s managed to avoid much damage until he was Rocked vs. the Reem. If this winds up being a war you have to wonder how much JDS could take. Advantage Miocic. The other big X-Factor I think will be athleticism. Miocic has got amazing movement and speed. No one else in the division really matches that well with him advantage Miocic.

The final X-Factor is history. No UFC heavyweight champion has ever been able to defend that championship more than twice in a single reign. The simple truth is when you have guy this big and strong it just takes one little opening to end a fight. Dos Santos saw this better than anyone. When he won the title it took a single shot to win it. When he lost the title he was hit with one big shot he never recovered from. A lot of people think Miocic can be the guy to break this trend, but we thought that about Brock, Cain, and Werdum. Advantage JDS trends like this do hold up for a reason.

Picking in the heavyweight division is always just a 50 50 shot. Like I said above it just takes that one little moment. That said I’m pretty confident Miocic wins. I don’t like the amount of damage that JDS has taken over the year. Miocic was a handful for him a few years ago. Now Miocic is a much better fighter and I really haven’t seen improvement from JDS. Also we have a very clear game plan to beat JDS now. I think Miocic gets a decision win as he uses more of his wrestling tires JDS out early and than knocks him out in the third.

UFC Strawweight Championship Joanna Jedrejczyk (c) 13-0 MMA 7-0 UFC vs. Jessica Andrade 16-5 MMA 7-3 UFC- This is one of those fights you just go “Oh this could amazing.” Jedrzejczyk has been so dominate as world champion you wonder who could truly challenge her. Andre is so aggressive and so was a top ten fighter at Bantamweight who has looked unstoppable since dropping to straweight. Since Andrade dropped down a lot of people have wanted to see her fight Joanna. People think she could be the one to take the title. And we have seen Joanna look a bit vulnerable lately. Most importunity Andrade is a fighter the comes forward and attacks we haven’t seen someone do that with Jedrejzyk.

Jedrzejczyk last fought in November back at UFC 205. She was challenged by Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Now the two had fought once back as ameatures with Joanna winning. UFC 205was no ameature fight. It was the biggest event in MMA history. Lots of media lots of talk. Joanna looked like she was onto another big dominate win. However in the fourth round Kowalkiewicz caught her with a counter strike. We had seen her caught and we had seen her hurt but she was in trouble for a while. Now she recovered and had done more than enough to win that fight. But much like with Demetrius Johnson looking weak vs. Tim Elliot just the sight of her getting hurt was a big story. Andrade last fought in February during Super Bowl weekend during a Fight Night. She was matched up with Angela Hill. Hill was making her return to the UFC after a strong run in Invitca. It was an exciting series of exchanges Andrade managed to get the unanimous decision win. She is now 3-0 at straweight.

Striking is what a lot of people want to see in this fight. Andrade is a very aggressive striker. She comes foreword throwing as much as she can. She throws wild punches and loves to brawl. Now she only has five career knockouts. Part of that is she fought her career at bantamweight where she was always the smaller fighter. She has only been knocked out twice in her career showing she’s got a great chin. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a former Muay Thai fighter with over sixty fights in her career between Armature and Pro fights. Now she only has four career knockouts in MMA but she hits hard. When she connects you hear it. Go watch how beat Jessica Penne and Valerie Letourneau were after fighting her. I have to give a clear edge to Joanna. She has much better technical striking. Andrade likes to loop her punches while Joanna comes down the pipe. Joanna is a very good counter striker and also uses her kicks very well. She is also very smart with the strikes she thrown. Yes in her last two fights she was dropped and than dazed but those were brief moments other than that she was a superior striker.

We haven’t seen any real ground game for Jedrejczyk. We have seen show very good takedown defense in her career. But in terms of submission she only has one in her pro career. When someone tries to take her down we usually see her sprawl and hit some hard elbows. Now she did have issues when Claudia Gadelha so she can taken down and even kept down for a time. Andrade has seven career submissions and has only been submitted twice. Also I don’t see Joanna taking this fight to the ground she might clinch to hit knees and elbows but not get a takedown. Andrade I think almost has to work the ground game is she’s going to win. So edge Andrade.

Looking at the training camps Joanna Champion is now out of American Top Team. This will be her second fight with that team. Mike Brown a former WEC champion often serves as the head coach for the females on that team. Brown is regarded as great corner man. The team has a great roster of coaches in every aspect. Also I think with Joanna, Amanda Nunes and a few others it has one of the best classes of female talents in the world. Andrade trains with Parana Vale Tudo in Brazil. I can’t find a lot of info on that team and it appear Andrade would be the most well known fighter from it. Now Andrade said before the Hill fight she needed the money from that to finance a championship level camp when for when she fights Joanna. Now that doesn’t mean she thinks her team sucks. It’s not uncommon to bring in specialized training partners. For example Woodley brought Sage Northcutt for both Thompson camps. But I do feel the edge goes to Joanna. Even if Andrade was only talking getting great Muay Thai fighters Joanna take the x here.

Looking at the X-Factor the biggest might be does Andrade let Joanna get to her. Joanna is one of those fighters that has such a big reputation before you face her she mentally breaks people. And she loves to play mind games. She loves to get people’s face trash talk and mock. But Andreade whole style is built on coming forward. If she does that and fights her fight that already a win for her. And we really haven’t seen someone pressure Joanna striking wise. The other big X-factor is the fact the fight is five rounds. Joanna has gone that distance the last three fight. This is Andrade first fight that long. And a lot fighters have said you can train you ass off but it’s still test the first time you got into championship rounds in actual fight. Huge edge for the champion.

My pick is simple. It’s Joanna. She is such a great striker I can’t see anyone getting the better of her for very long. I think Andrade will try to brawl and that will backfire. I think Joanna picks her off at rang breaks her down with leg kicks and than finishes it in the fourth round with a TKO win.

Demian Maia 24-6 MMA 18-6 UFC vs. Jorge Masvidal 32-11 MMA 9-4 UFC- Demian Maia should have gotten a title shot by now. He’s won six in row finished three of them dominated every fight. Hell he’s barely even been hit in those fights. But when Woodley vs. Wonderboy 1 was a draw it caused a rematch and now with the way things worked out Maia felt he needed to take another fight. Jorge Masvidal is a fighter that most of his career has been an also ran but he’s gotten very good lately and a win here could make him the number one contender. Maia last fought in August in the main event of a UFC on Fox card. He was matched up with former WEC and UFC Interim champion Carlos Condit. He got right into the clinch dragged Condit down locked in a choke and won in just under two minutes. That was put him at six in a row. Masvidal last fought in January at another UFC on Fox card. That fight he faced Donald Cerrone. Since dropping welterweight Cerrone had been amazing he was unbeaten. Masvidal destroyed him using his superior. It was so bad the normally calm Greg Jackson was screaming “We aren’t losing” at Cowboy after the first round. Jackson was wrong Masvidal knocked Cerrone out with ease in the second round. He’s now won three in a row

There is no denying Masvidal will have the advantage when it comes to striking. He’s got very clean boxing. He throws good hard punches. He’s only got 12 career knockouts but he’s now got two in a row. He’s only been knocked out once in his MMA career. He’s also got a professional boxing fight to his credit. Maia doesn’t really strike. He’s only won three fight via knockout. He really doesn’t have the great technique. He’s only lost via knockout though. Really Maia only goes into striking mood when he can’t get a takedown. And well go watch his fight with Chris Weidman to see how sloppy that can be. If this fight stays standing it favors Jorge Masvidal.

Now there is no denying that the grappling edges goes to Maia. He is a fourth degree BJJ blackbelt. In BJJ tournaments he won many of the biggest ones in the world. In MMA he has won twelve fights via submission and never been submitted in his career. Even in fights where he doesn’t get the submission he just drags guys down and controls them just watch his fight with Jon Fitch. Masvidal does have a wrestling background but that was in high school. In MMA he won two fight via submission and lost two via submission. Maia has insane state about how little he gets hit and that is because he easily gets guys down. When this fight is on the ground Masvial is swimming with a shark.

Looking at the training camps Maia currently trains with his own Demian Maia Jiu-Jitsu. Now He’s done very well with his own team. More and more we are seeing fighters in MMA do this. Often with your own team it becomes all about you it’s about getting you ready its more like how boxers do it. Masvidal is a long time member of American Top Team. My gut say ATT give Masvidal the advantage. Mainly I worry with Maia I wonder if he is doing any real striking training.

I think the biggest X-factor will be size. Maia is 6’1 and fought many years at Middleweight. Masvidal is 5’10 and has fought at lightweight. We know what Maia’s game plane will be. He will want to drag Masvidal to the ground after tying him up. Being the bigger man will make that easier. Now Masvidal will have a reach advantage but still in the clinch he will have issues. Advantage Maia.

My pick is Demian Maia. I think the size is going to be a big factor add into that his huge grappling edge I think it’s a win for the should be number one contender. Like I said Maia doesn’t really get hit very often in his fights. Masvidal has said his wrestling will be enough to keep the fight standing but I just recall the much better wrestler Jon Fitch couldn’t stop him from taking him down. I say first round submission for Maia.

Frankie Edgar 21-5-1 MMA 15-5-1 UFC vs. Yair Rodriguez 10-1 MMA 5-0 UFC- Classic story in combat sports. The long time star the former world champion wanting to make another run up the mountain in one corner. On the other side the promising emerging star that appears to be a champion in the making. This is a very fascinating fight that could go either way. Frankie Edgar last fought at UFC 205 in November. He was matched up with Jeremy Stephens. That was an important fight for him. He was coming a very one sided loss to Jose Aldo at UFC 200 and he needed to prove he was still a contender. Much better fight for him this time. He used good footwork and boxing mixed in his wrestling to gain a unanimous decision win. Yair Rodriguez last made the walk to the cage in January at a UFC Fightnight. It was his second main event this time he was matched up with BJ Penn. Now at this stage BJ is well past his prime he’s a bigger name than actual ranked foe. Still though you wonder would the moment be to big for Rodriquez? We had seen his boxing wasn’t that strong could BJ who has heavy hands do some damage? What if he got taken down? Well it didn’t matter. Rodriquez showed improved boxing and mixing in his great kicks beat the living crap out of Penn. He knocked him out early in the second round.

Big contrasts in striking. Edgar has six career knockout wins and officially he has never been knocked out. However we have seen him get his bell rung many times. Rodriguez has four career knockouts now his one career loss was a knockout. I think power edge goes to Rodriguez based on the higher rate. Now in terms of striking style you don’t get much different. Edgar is a boxer type. Now it’s easy to classify him as a “bite down on the mouthpiece” type but we have seen him have very good footwork. Rodriguez has a back round Taekwondo and we seen him amazing kicks. Now Rodriguez will have the reach and with his kicks could Edgar at range similar to Aldo. We also saw Rodriguez show better boxing last time out. So I am giving him the edge in striking.

When it comes to grappling everything says Edgar. He only has four career submission wins but he’s never been submitted in his career. He’s a BJJ blackbelt having been trained by Renzo Gracie and Richado Almedia. On top of that we have seen him use his wrestling very well at featherweight he has been able slam guys when he gets in and he does have a wrestling back round. Rodriguez has one career submission win. He is not formally ranked in BJJ and doesn’t have any grappling back round. I don’t think he’s faced a wrestler on the level of Edgar. Clearly the edge goes to Frankie Edgar.

Looking at training Edgar works with Mark Henry for his striking and as a head coach. As I mentioned in grappling he also has Renzo Graciea and Almedia. That group of coaches also work with Eddie Alvarez, Marlon Moraes, and some other high level guys. Rodriguez Valle-Flow stiking. Its a smaller team which from interviews he’s said it was due to wanting to work on his wrestling. I gotta give a clear edge to Frankie here he’s got great coaches working with him. Added bonus for have Alvarez on the same card which many fighters say they love having teammate in camp for exact event as it helps them peak just right.

The biggest X-Factor will be toughest test for one fighter just another fight for the other. Rodriguez has looked amazing but he’s yet to face a truly elite fighter like Frankie Edgar. For Frankie though he’s been facing the best of the best for years now. Frankie is tough and has that dog in him. On top of that Frankie has been through it all in his career. He’s been hurt and come back. This could the first time we Yair unable to land his fancy kicks or take down and beat up. Both are huge edges for Frankie Edgar.

Now I do think Yair Rodriguez can be a UFC champion someday. But today I’m picking Frankie Edgar. I could very well Yair doing well on but thank Frankie getting hitting some good punches than tying him up and taking him down over and over again. I also could simply see Frankie landing a great punch and dropping him. I think its of those times we see just far the next big thing still has to grow.

Henry Cejudo 10-2 MMA 4-2 UFC vs. Sergio Pettis 15-2 MMA 6-2 UFC- Both these fighters entered the UFC with a lot of expectations. Both have had success but also struggled. Even sometimes in victory they haven’t impressed. But every fight is a new chance to impress. Cejudo last fought in December at the TUF Final. It was the coaches fight with Joseph Benvidez. Now he was looking really good but he kept hitting low blows costing him a point. And in the end he lost fight on a decision. Now lost two in row after a perfect 10-0 to start his career. Pettis last fought in January at a UFC Fightnight he beat John Moraga via decision. He’s won three in a row at Flyweight all via decision.

Neither guy really known as a knockout puncher Cejudo has the higher rate with Four Knockouts in ten career wins. He’s was knocked out off a body shot and ground and pound in the fight with Johnson. Pettis only has three career knockouts in fifth teen career win. He’s also only been knocked out once that was in the Ryan Benoit fight again that was a TKO off of punches. Pettis has more of a background in striking he’s a black belt in Taekwondo and also one in Roufussport Kickboxing Program. From just watching them fight Pettis has cleaner technical striking. Cejudo looks more to muscle his punches. Edge goes to Pettis.

The grappling edge clearly goes to Cejudo its not even close. The man was an Olympic gold medalist. He’s the classic been on the mat since he was kid. Pettis does not have a background in grappling. And we have seen struggle when he gets pushed into being forced to do it. Now the submission numbers do favor Pettis as he has three career submission wins and only been submitted once. Cejudo has never won via submission win or ever been submitted. But the better wrestler usually controls if BJJ ever becomes an issue. So edge Cejudo.

Looking training Pettis is a long standing member of Roufusport under the great Duke Rofus one of the best coaches in MMA. That teams has a number of very good coaches and some great fighters on the team. They include Sergio’s older brother Anthony a former UFC champion, Ben Askren, and Tyron Woodley and a few others. Cejudo trains with Fight Ready in Arizona. Seems to be he’s the biggest name on there. I know his older brother is one of his coaches. From what I can tell a few guys from his TUF team have joined. Right now clear edge to Pettis he’s got the best of the best back there. They may not be able to make him a better wrestler than Cejudo but they can show him how to make it harder for Cejudo to wrestle.

I think the biggest X-Factor will be who is more likely to be great. Like I said in the open both guy have good records but don’t impress they don't’ have that highlight reel moment. Who is more likely to do that is Cejudo. He’s seems to have more power and seems to have ability to just slam Pettis down. It always feels like Pettis just goes out there gets into first gear and if that’s enough it’s enough it’s not well there isn’t a second one.

I am picking Cejudo. I think he will feel more pressure and it will cause him to fight at a high level. I expect him to take Pettis down early and often and keep him down. It will to the distance and the judges give it to Cejudo.

Eddie Alvarez 28-5 MMA 3-2 UFC vs. Dustin Poirier 21-5 13-4 UFC- This is one of those fights that I think the matchmakers put together to get a fight of the night. Eddie Alvarez last fought in November at UFC 205. It was the biggest event in MMA history it was the biggest fight of his life, and it was the worse performance of his career. He entered as the UFC Lightweight Champion and was defending against the biggest star in the sport Conor McGregor. He had openly called Conor an easy. There was a feeling that Conor hadn’t earned all the oppturines he’s been given. And on paper it should have been a very close fight. Eddie is very tough and experienced he has great stand up and is very good offensive wrestler. Yet in realty it was a night of target practice for Conor. Eddie took the left hand over and over again. And Eddie got dropped a few times. Conor started to put his hands behind his back daring Eddie to him and Alvarez just froze. Finally just over three minutes into the second it was over. Poirier last fought in February at UFC 208. He was matched up with Jim Miller. Early on he suffered a leg injury. But kept fighting and had a thrilling battle and earned a decision win. He’s now five of six since moving up to lightweight.

Alvarez has the higher KO rate. He’s got 15 career knockouts and only been knocked out twice in his career. Poirier has teen career knockouts and also only has two career knockout losses. Both men use a lot of boxing as the primary striking style. Poirier will have a three inch reach advantage 72 to 69. Alvarez has shown very good foot work and use of feints. Also if you go back and watch the fight with RDA he showed great use of mixing it up going to the head and the body. This could be a very good fight I will give a slight edge to Eddie based on his footwork. And I stress slight edge.

When it comes to grappling it’s Alvarez with the background in wrestling from back when he was in high school. For the most part he does a good job of mixing in his wrestling during a fight. Both men are ranked brown belts in BJJ and both trainer with upper level coaches so these are empty belts. In terms of numbers Alvarez has seven career submission wins but none since 2010. He’s also lost twice via submission. Poirier has six career submission wins but none since 2012. He also one submission loss. My own feeling it the edge goes to Eddie based on his wrestling.

Training camps Poirier is a long time member of ATT. He’s got elite coaches and elite training partners all around and had many of them getting ready to fight on this card. Alvarez’s head coach is Mark Henry he also trains with Ricardo Almedia. He also has some very good training partners including Frankie Edgar. I am saying it’s equal both guys are working with great teams.

The biggest X-Factor to me is how Alvarez responds coming off a loss. His history has been when he losses he comes back very strong. When he was submitted by Aoki he than rolled off seven wins in a row with six finishes winning and defending the Bellator Title. When he lost to Chandler he came back to knockout Aoki in a rematch and than KO Pitbull in the rematch and regain the title beating Chandler. Than he lost to Cerrrone in his UFC debut but follows that up beating Melendez, Pettis and RDA in a row. I think he’s going to come back real strong and make it clear “That guy at UFC 205 was not Eddie Alvarez.”

So I am picking Eddie Alvarez. Now I won’t be shocked if Dustin Poirier wins. I think just simple fact is Eddie is better in every area. I think this could be a thrilling fight I think it will be close enough it’s a split decision but Alvarez's hand goes up.