UFC on Fox Picks

How do you follow up a Triple Header? With a loaded card on network TV of course.

UFC Lightweight Championship Rafael dos Anjos © 24-7 MMA 13-5 UFC vs. Donald Cerrone 28-6 1 NC MMA 15-3 UFC- August 28 2013 these two fought at a UFC Fight Night. Dos Anjos won a split decision. It seemed like dos Anjos won the first two rounds really keeping the fight a boxing range working over the body. But as the fight was closing out it seemed Cerrone was coming on. He got his range and started to use his leg kicks. That also was Cerrone's last loss. Dos Anjos lost his next fight but wound up getting a title shot as the dominoes fell now he's the champion and we got a rematch and this time its five rounds. Dos Anjos last fight was in March in UFC 185 he won the title from Anthony Pettis. It was about as perfect a fight as you can see. Early on he hurt Pettis with a big punch that shut his eye. His striking was crisp and powerful if the fight went to the ground it was all dos Anjos. He's now won four in a row in that time he blew out both Pettis and Nate Diaz before that he became the only man to knockout Benson Henderson.

Cerrone's last fight was in May at UFC 187 he kicked John Makdessi so hard in the face it broke it jaw and got him to retire. That fight was a trap in a lot of way. Makedessi is not a contender he was replacing the injured Khabib Nurmagomedov. So it went from a true challenge to a fight Cerrone could have easily looked past but he didn't. Instead he dominated. Cerrone' has now won eight fights in a row including wins over Henderson. Eddie Alvarez, and Myles Jury. Five of those fights he's finished. Cowboy has always been a top contender but now it seems to have found that little higher level the best of the best find.

Both men are very good strikers. They don't have a lot of knockouts dos Anjos only has four and in his MMA career Cerrone only has five. That said both men clearly hit hard and do damage just look at what dos Anjos did to Pettis. He's striking has gotten better since joining King's MMA. Cerrone was also a kickboxer and did have 18 knockouts there. Both guys like to fight coming forward. Dos Anjos was able to get the advantage and take Cerrone out of his game. Both men can punch and kick. I want to lean towards giving Cerrone the advantage standing up. But it's going to slight. Dos Anjos did do some good work on his feet the first time. It's unlikely either guy score a knockout given that each man has only been knocked out once each.

Both these men have great ground games. I think that is part of the reason why Cerrone has a lower knockout rate. He loves to rock a guy on his feet and go for a submission. Cerrone has 15 career submission wins and he's only been submitted once. Dos Anjos has 8 career submissions but the man is a third degree blackbelt in BJJ. He's also only had one submission and that was due to injury. Even though Cerrone has more submission I think dos Anjos has the better ground game. The guy has great control and the first fight he blocked Cerrone's attempt to submission attempts same with Pettis. Also he took both men down easily. The one guy that gave him trouble was Nurmagomedov a very high level wrestler. I am giving dos Anjos the advantage but again it's close.

Both men are out of high level camps. Cerrone a long time Jackson Winkeljohn fighter and dos Anjos is out of King's MMA. I want to give the edge to dos Anjos. Jackson's is a great camp but it's also had some downs in recent years. Kings is led by the legendary Rafael Cordory. A great trainer it's a smaller camp but it has a high level of fighters out of it. Again slight edge. Now Cerrone fought more recently and dos Anjos was injured after his last fight. But it's not a long layoff. But yeah a slight edge to Cerrone.

Now I think this will be a very close fight. I could see it ending pretty much any way. Hell this could wind up being fight of the year. As a fan I would love to see Cerrone get the win. But I am leaning towards dos Anjos in this fight. The guy has looked so good. Anyone that can do that to Pettis is going to be hard to beat. I see this going five rounds and the champion retains.

Junior dos Santos 17-3 MMA 11-2 UFC vs. Alistair Overeem 39-14 1NC MMA 4-3 UFC- November 2011 JDS knocks out Cain Velasquez to win the UFC Heavyweight Championship. December 2011 The Reem than viewed as beat heavyweight in the world by many makes his UFC debut easily beating Brock Lesnar establishing his spot as number 1 contender. The fight is announced for May of 2012. It would never happen. Before the fight Overreem was tested and found to have elevated testosterone. The fight was called off and he was suspended. Since than the fans have wanted this fight and both men have open talked of wanting this fight. Also now the fight has a chance to grant the winner a title shot. Both men have beat current champion Fabrico Werdum.

Dos Santos was the last December Fox card. He got a decision victory Stipe Miocic it was a close fight. I personally thought JDS should have lost. In his last four fights his record stands at 2-2. But he took a lot of punishment in all four. In the losses both were to Velasquez and while he landed some shots he took a lot of punishment. He KO'ed Mark Hunt but not after taking some hard shots. And he was pretty banged up after the Stipe fight. I think a year off was needed. Overeem last fought in May at UFC 185 he battered Roy Nelson for three rounds. The win gave him his first ever UFC winning streak. Truth is Overeem's been a let down in the UFC. He's not taken the same brutal prolonged beatdowns JDS has but he's been KO'ed by Bigfoot, Browne and Rothwell all fights he was a heavy fave in.

Its a battle of Boxing vs. Dutch Style Muay Thai in the striking department. Dos Santos one of the very boxers in MMA he's got heavy hands good footwork. He has twelve career knockouts and his lone KO loss was when he was slammed into the mat. Overeem known for great kicks and knees. He was also the K-1 Grand Prix champion. He went into the top event in kickboxing and beat great kickboxers. He has 16 career knockouts in MMA but he's also been knocked out 9 times including all 3 UFC losses. Reem would be the more diverse striker but he's also more likely to drop his hands and get caught. I almost want to just say toss up given how close it is. The amount of punishment JDS has taken worries me but I am going to give JDS the edge. JDS can use his footwork and speed. Plus with Reem I could easily seem him have a little success and get to cocky because well that's all 3 UFC losses.

Junior dos Santos ground game is something we hear a lot about but never see. He has two submission wins but one was a verbal submission in his fight with Cro Cop and that was thanks to his striking. His only other submission win was his second career fight in 2006. He also has 1 career submission loss back in 2007. That said he grapples very well. He blocked all of Frank Mir's wrestling and submissions and manged to do well vs. Velasquez it was just he was facing a NCAA champion. It seems his grappling is more defensive to keep it standing instead of using his black belt to submit or decision guys. Overeem has 19 career submission wins. A few are due to strikes but even than there was a time when at 205 lbs you could argue his submissions skills were very under appertained. He's also only lost twice via submission. Now that said Reem hasn't had a submission since 2009. It seems that as he moved up to heavyweight and packed on muscle he got away from his grappling. I say the edge goes to JDS because we have seen him use it more in the UFC.

With the kind of power these guys posse anything can happen. Even if they don't end the fight just look at UFC 155 JDS got hurt early by a big punch and never recovered. Again as a fan I would love to see JDS win but I am picking Overeem. It does all depend on which Reem shows up. But I think he fights smart I think he comes in aware he can get hurt so he keeps his hands up. Just the sure amount of damage JDS has taken lately and the fact he's not as active as he used to be worries me.

Michael Johnson 16-9 MMA 8-5 UFC vs. Nate Diaz 17-10 MMA 12-8 UFC- Interesting fight both guys have been fighting a long time. Both guys are looking to make one more run to the top and see if they can get that belt. Johnson last fought in August and he was flat out robbed by three morons they called judges. He dominated the fight against Beneil Dariush but they said he lost. Decisions like that make you think not only should they never be allowed to judge a fight they should never allowed to watch fight. That also snapped a strong 4 fight winning streak. Diaz hasn't fought in a year at the last December Fox card. You could make an argument that was the worse Diaz has ever looked. He had sat a year during that time he demanded more money he demanded title shots he came in missed weight and than was dominated by Rafael dos Anjos. By the end of that fight his leg was destroyed by RDA's leg kicks. He's also lost 3 of his last 4 his lone win being over Gray Maynard a guy that is a shell of his former self.

Striking wise again it's a battle of a kickboxer vs. a guy that wants to box. Diaz has a four inch reach and is know for his boxing he loves that Stockin Slap style. In his career he has 4 knockouts only been knocked out once. But we also seen him show huge gaps when guys kick him and don’t' let him box. Hell it appeared in the dos Anjos fight he had no idea how to check a kick. Johnson has never been knocked out and he's got 7 career KO wins. I will say Johnson has the advantage. Diaz and his brother always want to brawl and box if Johnson fights smart and use kicks I think it's his game. He may not be able to crack like RDA did but I'm sure his team which has great kickboxers on it have worked with him on attacking those legs.

Diaz is a BJJ blackbelt he also had a lot of success on the ground. 11 career wins via submission. He also only been submitted once. Johnson has only 2 career wins via tap out and he has 6 career submission losses. If this goes to the ground Diaz will have an advantage. To me the pick isn't that card. It's Johnson. For the third straight year Diaz is only fighting once. Johnson is more active. Johnson has more momentum. I ever wonder how serious Nate Diaz is taking his career. Hell he seems more concerned with picking fights with other people. I think Diaz losses another one.

Randa Markos 5-2 MMA 1-1 UFC vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz 7-0 MMA Making UFC Debut- Even though this fight isn't getting a lot of press it's a good showcase place for this young division. Markos former TUF competitor pulled off the biggest upset of the season when she beat third ranked Tiecia Torres followed that up by beating Felicia Herring before losing to Rose Namajauan. Kowalkiewicz is making her UFC debut. Strawweight is such a new division we really haven’t figured out who is really good and who the true contender are to Joanna Champion. Markos last fought in April at UFC 186 earning a decision over Aisling Daly. Kowalkiewicz last fought in February at KSW 30 getting a decision win over Kalinda Faria.

Hard fight to pick. I have only seen a little of Markos and I have seen none of Kowalkiewicz. Markos has never scored a knockout and from what I have seen her striking it's dynamic is more basic. Kowalkiewicz has one knockout and from I can tell she doesn't come from a team that has a rep for developing strikers. Markos has 3 official submission wins and Kowalkiewicz has two. I want to give an edge to Markos giving she did submit Herring on TUF and other than that Herring has never been submitted.

I'm picking Markos because the X-Factors go to her. She's been in the UFC before and that does mean something. Your used to the flow of the show and being in front of so many people. Also it appears Kowalkiewicz will have to travel also she's only fought out Poland once before. Also Markos is now training at the high level Tri-Star Gym. Meaning she will have great coaches and great training partners. Why Kowalkiewicz is with a team closer to home.