UFC and WSOF Picks

UFC Bantamweight Championship Ronda Rousey (c) 11-0 MMA 5-0 UFC vs. Bethe Corriea 9-0 MMA 3-0 UFC- Bethe Corriea wanted this. She kept mocking the Four Horsewomen sign she said she wanted the shot. But now he's got to actually fight Rousey. You can make a legit argument that Rousey is the most dominate champion the UFC has ever seen. She has finished every single fight she has ever been in. Only been out of the first round once in a fight where she turned her so called biggest rival into a grappling dummy. And she had eight win that look less than a minute. The Rowdy one last fought in February at UFC 182. She was matched up against Cat Zingano. Going into that fight many thought Zingano could the one to finally test Rousey. Cat was undefeated she had finished some very tough fighters and had shown an ability to survive early trouble. Rousey beat her in fourteen second. Breaking the record for faster title fight ever which was her own when she TKO'ed Alexis Davis in sixteen seconds. Corriera last fought in August when she TKO'ed Shayna Baszler at UFC 177. Before that she was beat Jessamyn Duke. Both Baszler and Duke are friends and trainer partners of Rousey's After both fight Corriea made it a point to pull a finger down on the Four Horsewomen on her hand. Corriea wants a title shot and Rousey wants revenge and to take away another fighter 0.

There is no contest who the better grappler in this fight is. Ronda Rousey is a high level Judo black belt. She won numerous tournaments all around the world she was an Olympic Bronze Medalist. In MMA as a professional she had nine wins via submission all thanks to the arm bar. She has taken numerous top fighters down with ease. Another advantage for her is the fact most take downs in MMA are usually wrestling style. As a result so many fighters don't really regularly train to block Judo throws. And even if they do they aren't training with the same high level Rousey did for years. So as hard as some girls may train you can only get so good in the limited time.

Corriea is a blue belt in BJJ she's never won a fight via submission. Every Rousey opponent talks about how hard they work to counter the judo and the arm bar. But no one has ever been able to stop it. At best it's Tate who escaped but still tapped twice. Rousey has been working on BJJ the one time we ever saw her in trouble she escaped. The other key is Rousey does arm bars but it's not always the same arm bar. So any little opening Corriea could find herself caught. The other side to that could be if Correiea gets so worried about her arms she could wind up opening the door for another submission.

I think a lot of people will by default give Corriea the striking advantage and that is her best chance to win. She has good powerful striking that we have seen shut people down. But she only has two wins via knockout. I think Rousey might actually have the edge. First Rousey will have a four inch reach advantage. You can watch improvement in Rousey's striking. She's gotten more crisp and more powerful. Also watch her early fights she would turn her head when she got hit. Now she is able to take a punch and fire back. Also she manged to finished Sara McMann with a knee to the body and in the Alexis Davis fight she rocked Davis with an over hand right. Than she tossed her to the ground and pounded out the finish.

Pretty much all the X-Factors got to go Rousey as well. Corriea's never been in a fight this big all the extra press and attention that goes into it. Fighters talk about how draining and over whelming it can. More press obligations, the cameras are following you for Countdown and Embedded. Even little things like the later you fight the more slick the canvas of the cage is because of guys sweating on it all night. The fight is in Brazil so while Corriea had home field Rousey is used to be booed and even fought Judo in Brazil against a Brazilian woman. Also I think the fact two of her training partners have fought her allowed Rousey's coaches to really scout her and get insight. Yes you could make argument that Corriea has pissed Ronda off so much we could see Rousey make a mistake. But Rousey always fights angry.

Corriea is also making some strange comments about justice and how she will fight until there is no breath left in her body. How she's not scared. Well that could all backfire if she goes out there and gets right in Rousey's face she's right in clinch range. Of course the pick the is Rousey I say another arm bar. When Rousey has fought strikers she usually uses more judo. I think she can take the hard strikes if they land. Corriea best chance might just be to use a lot of movement and throw kicks to keep her off. But she's going to need a very special performance.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 21-6 MMA 4-3 UFC vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua 22-10 MMA 6-8 UFC- This is a rematch of a fight that took place in Pride as part of Grand Prix tournament. Rua won the fight. It was a huge win for him and of course he went on to win the tournament. I cant put to much stock in that fight. It took place in 2005 both guys are not the same fighter they were back than. You could say mentally it helps Rua because he knows he can beat Nogeruia but on the flip side you could say it motivates Nogueria to get revenge. It's different rules its not a tournament and both guys have changed up training partners and mentally are in different places.

Little Nog fought last July at UFC on Fox card he got knocked out by Anthony Johnson in a very one sided fight where he didn't anything off. That snapped a two fight winning streak also numerous injures have slowed Little Nog down to fighting about once a year. Rua last fought in November he was knocked out by Ovince St. Preux in less than a minute. That puts him at two losses in a row both via knockout. Shogun has also lost four of his last five fights. Both these men are known for there striking. Nogueria noted for his boxing he holds six career knockouts. Rua former Chute Boxe fighter known for that aggressive Muay Thai style. Shogun has 19 career knockouts. I can't really give either guy a huge advantage. Rua is little more diverse in his striking. But he's also been knocked out more. Slight edge to Rua.

Both men are black belts in BJJ. I'm giving Nogueira the edge he's at a higher degree of ranking. Also Nogueria has more career win via submission at six. While Rua has only won once via submission. Another check mark for Little Nog is the fact Shogun has been submitted more one of those to Chael Sonnen who isn't known for his submission skills. Nogeueria brother is also one of MMA's greatest submission artist and they are training partners. So yeah odds are Nogueria could be the one to get the submission win. I'm not really confidant in either guy but I am leaning towards Rua. He's the younger the fighter and he's been more active. That said I could easily see Nogueria catching him with either a punch and hurting that not a steel anymore chin or even getting a submission. If it goes to the judges it could go either way.

Stefan Struve 25-7 MMA 9-5 UFC vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 34-9-1 1NC MMA 5-5 UFC- Both these guys have a lot of fights in there career. Both are getting to that point where it's make or break it time. Both have dealt with health issues, Struve missed a long time due to a heart issue while Nogueira been missing time to deal with long standing injures over the course of his career. Struve last fought in December he was knocked out by Alistair Overeem. That was his first fight in a year but it's put him at two losses in a row both via KO. Nogueira last fought in April of 2014 he was knocked out by Roy Nelson. That was his second loss in a row prior to that Fabrico Werdum had submitted him. Struve is the younger fighter but don't underestimate Big Nog's ability to come back and the motivation to be fighting in Brazil again. Plus again his brother is on the card a lot of fighters love to have a training partner of any kind going into a fight about the same time because they are peaking and pushing each other.

I am giving the edge the in Striking to Nogueria. While Struve has more knockouts at seven to Nogueria's three. Part of that is Big Nog loves to get on the ground and submit guys. Struve does have seven wins via knockouts while Nogueira only has three but Struve also has been knocked out six times. Big Nog only has three knockout losses. A few other factors working against Struve are why he's got a huge reach he's never been very good at using it. He lets guys get inside on him he's never really developed a strong jab or push kicks to keep guys off. And there have been times with Struve when he starts to go into a defensive shell we saw that with both he losses to Mark Hunt and Roy Nelson. I can really see Big Nog getting in enough and landing enough that Struve shuts down. Truthfully both men are more submission guys. Struve has sixteen career submissions. Nogeruria has twenty one and of course for many years was viewed as the greatest submission fighter in MMA history. Struve has only been submitted once but I gotta give the edge to Nogueria. Besides more submission wins he's viewed as having cleaner more technical submissions. The guys that have submitted him are Mir is the UFC greatest submission heavyweight and Werdum a former BJJ world champion.

A huge X-factor is the fact this fight takes places in Brazil. Nogeruria is going to be extremely motivated to be fighting in his home country. We know how crazy fans are and how much they support there own. We have seen twice with him in the UFC with Brendan Schaub and Dave Herman he's in Brazil it fires him up. So I gotta pick Nogeruria to win this. I think he wears Struve down early with striking gets it to the ground and submits him in the first. There is always a risk he will be off or he's to old. But Nogeruria always seems to just when people are counting him out he rallies back. I know Struve made some changes to his training for this now with the Blackzannlias but I don't think that's enough.

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva 18-7 1NC MMA 2-4 1NC UFC vs. Soa Palelei 22-4 MMA 4-2 UFC- Easily Bigfoot's biggest win was his one sided beat down of Fedor. But the problem is that was way back in 2011. Palelie has been around a while but never had that big stand out win. Silva last fought in February he lost via KO to Frank Mir. Silva hasn't won since 2013 when he upset Overeem. He's fought five times since than three losses and 1 no contest which was an overturned draw. In all of Silva's UFC losses its been via knockout. Palelei last fought in November knocked out Walt Harris. Since returning to the UFC in 2013 Palelei has won four of five all of his wins come via knockout. So that's my way of saying I am giving Palelei the advantage in striking. Silva does has a very high KO rate of 13 out of 18 put Palelei has 18 out 22. Like I said Silva has six career loses via knockout and all of his UFC losses have seen him KO'ed. Palelei clearly has power and Silva can and will get hurt if stuff lands. I know Mark Hunt and Overeem failed to knock Bigfoot out but. TRT for one and took him to lightly for the other. Also Palelei will have one inch reach advantage. While not a huge one for a guy like Silva who is so used to be bigger than other guys that can throw him off.

Neither guy really has many submission although both are ranked as BJJ black belts. I would think the native Brazilian might have the more meaning full belt but Palelei does have wrestling back round. Silva has three career submission wins and never tapped out himself. Palelei has four submission wins and two losses via submission. I am calling it a toss up in the grappling game. Neither guy uses it much and both are the same height and weight in at 265 usually. One X-Factor I must give to Bigfoot is the better team. He trains with the highly respected American Top Team while Palelei work with a lesser known Team Hulk in his native Australia.

My pick though is Palelei via knockout I don't see it going long. Bigfoot doesn't like to get hit. I think Palelei lands a few hard punches early and gets Bigfoot backing up. Once you can get Bigfoot to stop being aggressive you have got it won. I could see this being about as quick as the losses Silva suffered to the AKA duo of DC and Cardio Cain. Bigfoot might be able to land his shots first and take control or catch a submission but I don't see it happening.

Jessica Aguilar 19-4 MMA Making UFC Debut vs. Claudia Gadelha 12-1 MMA 1-1 UFC- This is a very important fight in the womens straweight division. Joanna Jedrzejcyk will most and likely defend her title against the winner of this fight. For many years Aguliar was viewed as the top fighter at fighter at Strawweight. She was the champion in Bellator. When the company dropped women's fights for a time she was a free agent and signed with World Series of Fighting. A lot of the other higher level straw weight signed with Invicta. Of course than the UFC made a deal took a lot of that talent and signed many other top talent to start there own straw weight division. As a result Aguilar hasn't faced a top level fighter in a while.

Gadelha last fought December on a Fox Card she lost a very close decision to Jedrzejcky. That was the first and only loss of her career. Of course after that Jedrzejcky goes on wins the title in a dominate victory over Carla Esparza. She than dominated Jessica Penne. When you have someone who looked so good against the dominate champion that makes the rematch very intriguing. Aguilar last fought November at WSOF 15 she beat Kalindra Faria she defended her WSOF title. To Aguilar's credit she had been beating the opponents put in front of her. From what I have seen she hasn't had any weak performances but again there some doubt about how great those girls are.

Your not really looking at the striking with either fighter. Each only has two knockouts wins. I guess I can give a slight edge to Gadelha who has the more recent knockout and trainers at Nova Uno which s renowned for it's striking and use of leg kicks. But Aguilar is out of ATT so it's not like she isn't working with elite coaches. Both women are more renowned for there submission skills. Gadelha has six submission wins and is a BJJ Black belt. How ever she hasn't had a submission since 2010. Aguilar is a brown belt but she has eight total wins via submission and has the more recent submission win. So again I can't say either has a clear cut advantage.

So in this case I am looking at X-Factors. Gadelha is from Brazil she trains in Brazil so you know the crowd will side with her. Another X-Factor for Gadelha is she's been in the UFC. The UFC jitter are real. We often see a highly touted fighter come into the UFC and have a poor first show. I know Aguilar has been on some bigger shows but nothing is as big as the UFC. She might be off just enough to allow Gadelha to get the win. I am going with Gadelha via decision.

WSOF 22 Pick

The UFC isn't the only game in town this weekend as World Series of Fighting presnets a show that will go head to head. Since I want this to be more than just a UFC blog (Even though that is mostly what I posted so far) I will throw in a pick of the main event.

WSOF Welterweight Championship Rousimar Palhares (c) 17-6 MMA 2-0 WSOF vs. Jake Shields 31-7-1 1NC MMA 2-0 WSOF- The build up to this fight has seen Shields repeatedly claim he wants to hurt Palhares. Now that could be just hyping the fight but there is something there. A theme of Palhares' career has been winning via leg lock and not releasing the hold when the guy the taps out. It's cost Pahalhares he's was suspended after a fight in 2010 for it and in 2013 it cost him his UFC contract. Palhares claimed he's not trying to seriously hurt people but when its such a consistent issue it hard to believe him. Shields keeps calling him a scum bag. Also Shields proven winner through out his career was a champion in several companies. Palhares last fought in December defeated Jon Fitch in about 90 seconds with a heel hook. That puts him at three wins in a row. Shields was last in action in January he submitted Brian Foster that puts him at two wins in a row.

When it comes to these two fighters your not really thinking about striking. But when you have two guys that are this good in grappling the one with that little edge standing up could be the one that wins. Palhares has never scored a knockout win. Shields only has three KO wins and he's lost twice via knockout. But from what I have seen over the years Shields has better technical striking and in his recent win over Ryan Ford he hurt him standing and that led to it going to the ground for the submission win. Shields may not have the best striking but he's better than Palhares.

The real key to this fight will be grappling. Both men hold BJJ black belts. Outside of MMA they have both done well and won grappling tournaments. I have to give the edge to Palhares based on his ability to finish the fight. Shields has twelve submission wins out of thirty one career wins but from 2009 until 2014 he didn't have a single submission victory. Ryan Ford and Brian Foster are good fighters but elite level talent. I don't think back to back submission wins over them says he's going to be able to do it again. Palahares has 14 career submission out of 17 total wins. Why not every one comes via a knee bar or leglock most do. While Shields has never been submitted if Palahares gets a hold of a leg the show is over.

X-Factor in favor of Palahares is the fact Shields has had some real bad performances at 170. My pick is for Palahares to get a first round submission win. Much like with Rousey I'm sure his opponents are training to prevent him from getting that hold but it's hard to stop him. A lot of Shields wins come via grinding it out. I think Palahares will be able to get this to where he needs it and get that leg.