Thursday, July 23, 2015

UFC On Fox Picks


UFC Bantamweight Championship TJ Dillishaw © 11-2 MMA 7-2 UFC vs. Renan Barao 33-2 1 NC MMA 8-1- UFC 174 May of 2014 Dillishaw challenges Barao for the UFC Bantamweight championship. Going into this fight NO ONE thought Dillishaw could win. The guy was a talented young fighter but Barao was unbeaten for more than thirty fights. He had twice dominated Urijah Faber, Dillishaw's friend and training partner. Hell I thought Barao would win in less than a second. But Dilishaw shocked the world he spent the entire fight out landing Barao and seemed to be out of the way every time Barao tried to attack. You could easily call it the greatest upset in MMA History. Since than it's been a strange road to the rematch. UFC 177 was supposed to be the rematch. Barao passed out cutting weight. Than Dominick Cruz and Raphael Asscuano got hurt opening the door for another rematch. But Dilishaw suffered a rib injury again delaying the fight.



Dilishaw last fought at UFC 177 in August. He beat Joe Soto who stepped up to replace Barao. He dominated the fight again showing great striking and knocked Soto out in the fifth round using a head kick just like he did with Barao. That's three wins in a row for the champion. Barao last fought in Barao last fought in December he beat Mitch Gagnon via submission. Gagnon was ranked but he wasn't really a contender. Still though he dominated the fight really was always in control. On paper the striking advantage goes to Barao eight career knockouts and his camp Nova Uno is renowned for it's aggressive striking. But we saw in the first fight that Dillishaw had the advantage. Striking isn’t just punches and kicks it's your footwork your ability to faint and defend. Dillshaw seemed to have the answers to every Barao attack. Now since that fight Duane “Bang” Ludwig has left Alpha Male as the head coach.



That said Dillishaw and Bang still work together. I believe Bang will be in the corner. Also Martin Kampman replaced Ludwig as coach. And The Hitman is a very good Thai boxer in his own right. Now the ground game you would think Dishabille is the better wrestler given his past at Fullerton State and his team. But Barao has shown good take down defense he's also got a 15 career wins via submission and a black belt. If I'm Barao I would want to take this to the ground and see what I could there over Dillishaw who really doesn't go to the ground very often.



My pick though is Dillishaw. I think he's gotten in Barao's head after that first fight. Barao in a lot of his comments seems like he just want to go in and smash. Dillishaw won in large part due to his confidence that he could and now he knows he can win. Also look at that first fight Dillishaw also fought very smart. He didn't got cocky he didn't take time to admire his work or drop his hands. I say Dillishaw does it again fifth round knockouts



Miesha Tate 16-5 MMA 3-2 MMA vs. Jessica Eye 11-2 1 NC MMA 1-1 1NC UFC- Well if you listen to Tate this is either a number one contenders fight or the winner fights Cyborg at catch weight in a number one contenders fight. Its not a done deal the winner gets a title shot and I don’t' think Cyborg is ever going to drop below 145. But this is a very key fight. With as dominated a champion as Ronda Rousey is she's already beat many of the top contenders. In Eye's case that opens up the door for a title shot even without a stellar record and in Tate's case a chance at a third fight. Tate last fought in January she Sara McMann via decision. That puts Rousey at three in a row. Eye's last fought was in November when an Injured halted her fight with Leslie Smith but before that she was clearly winning the fight. I should not Eye originally beat Sara Kaufman but that was over turned due to a failed drug test for marijuana.



Striking I'm going to give the edge to Eye she has more of a striking background. She also has great hand speed and she managed to out stirke the very dangerous Sarah Kaufman in there fight. Tate has also has been knocked out in the past against Zinganoa and she's been rocked a number of times. Tate has shown an ability to recover when hurt. Grappling that edge goes to Tate. She was a wrestler in high school. She's been very dominate when she can get a take down. Even going toe to toe with Sara McMann an Olympic medal winner. Tate also has six wins via submission including the title over Maroles Coenen win the title back in Strikeforce.



This is a really tough pick. The truth is Tate hasn't looked very good since the first fight with Rousey. She's not really had a great performance. I think people over hype “She went three with Rousey,” when really it was more of Rousey having to much fun throwing her around. She's had a few close calls and her wins outside of McMann haven't been really impressive. That said she keeps finding a way to win. Eye has looked really good but she's doesn't have that high finish rate. Tate's only lost once via decision she knows how to do enough to win rounds. I'm going with Tate. I think she grinds out enough to get another win.



Edson Barboza 15-3 MMA 9-3 vs. Paul Felder 10-0 MMA 2-0 UFC-Felder last fought in February at UFC 182 he beat Danny Castillo KO'ing him with a spinning back fist. That was a big fight for him. Victory over a well known veteran, highlight reel win, and it came on one of the UFC's biggest cards on a good spot the last prelim fight. Now he's got a bigger chance on a Network show. Barboza last fought in February as well he lost to Michael Johnson at a Fight Night. Barboza has had some big fights against guys like Cerrone or Johnson but he's also always found a way to come up short. Still though big showcase potential here on a major network. Striking I am giving an edge to Barboza. While Felder has 7 career wins via KO Barboza has 9 wins via KO. Barboza also has some great kicks and he's done it against a higher level of competition.



Ground game is again to Barboza. Although only a blue belt in BJJ he has two submissions. Felder I don't think has been to the ground in his UFC career. And it seems his style is very striking heavy. Why I don't expect much grappling it would be a good way for Barboza to score some points and maybe tire Felder out. I also got to give the X-Factor in a better camp to Barboza. He's up in New Jersey working with UFC vets. Felder seems to be in a smaller gym in Philly. Another X-Factor for Barboza he's been on Fox and main cards before. For Felder biggest fight toughest fight of his career. I think the kicks and the experience are enough Barboza score a knockout win in the second round.



Takanoria Gomi 35-10 1 NC MMA 4-5 UFC vs. Joe Lauzon 24-10 MMA 11-7 UFC- Barboza and Feilder is a battle between two younger fighters this is battle between two solid vets. Lauzon lost fight at UFC 183 losing via TKO to Al Iaqunita the loss snapped a two fight winning streak. Gomi last fought in September losing to Myles Jury via KO. Power you gotta give Gomi he has 13 career wins via KO and that might be Lauzon biggest weakness as he's lost four time via knockouts. But I would say Lauzon is the better technical striker. Gomi has that hands down full power style. The guys that give Lauzon trouble are powerful technical strikers. Grappling huge advantage to Lauzon seventeen times he's won via Submission he's a BJJ black belt. And Gomi has six losses via tapout. Gomi might be able to catch Lauzon but I'll got with Lauzon being able to avoid the power shots get it to the ground and getting the submission win.



Rest of the card



Vialante over Lawler

Miller over Castillo

Saunders over Roberts

Caraway over Wineland

Krause over Cruikshank

Holobrook over Nijem

Phillips over Duke

Cummings over Steele

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