UFC 191 Picks

UFC 191 may not be the biggest card the UFC will do all year but ti's got the potential to be an excellent card. We got one of the pound for pound best in a rematch of his toughest challenge as champion. Two former heavyweight champions who have reemerged late in there careers in a fight a decade in making. A key battle in Light Heavyweight

UFC Flyweight Championship Demetrious Johnson (c) 22-2-1 MMA 10-1-1 UFC vs. John Dodson 17-6 MMA 6-1 UFC- January 26^th 2014 these two fought on Fox. It was Johnson's first title defense. Early on Dodson rocked him with some really hard power punches. However Johnson recovered and as the fight went on he sized control and the fight went to the score cards all three judges scored it for the champion. There has been a lot of talk of a rematch especially as Johnson has emerged as such a dominate champion and Dodson is really the only guy that appeared to have any type of success against him. The other big threat was supposed to be Joseph Benavidez who Johnson beat for the first title but than Might Mouse knocked him in the first round of there second fight. Almost every other contender has done nothing against Johnson.

Johnson last fought in April at UFC 186 he dominated Kyoji Horiguchi and than pulled off a literal last second submission win. Johnson has not lost since 2011 where he challenged Dominick Cruz for the Bantamweight title he did have the draw vs. McCall but but he's truly emerged as one of the very best in MMA. Guys go in against him and can't do anything he's to fast he's to technical and he's good at every aspect of the game. Dodson last fought in May at UFC 187 he beat Zach Makovsky via decision. He looked a little shaky in that fight but part of that had to be him coming off an injury layoff and maybe a thought process of fight safer to shake off the rust and know a win got him a title shot. Dodson has won three in a row since the loss to Johnson.

Striking is interesting on the power side that is clearly on Dodson he got eight career knockout wins while Johnson only has four. And we saw in the first fight that Dodson can hurt Johnson. But striking is a lot more than power. And Johnson is a much better technical striker. Dodson chases a knockout. We saw that backfire in the first fight for Dodson he tired out. Joe Rogan said it perfect saying Dodson is sprinting the entire fight. If I gotta give the edge it goes to Johnson we have seen him keep improving as a fighter. Five rounds is a long time. I think Johnson style is better for this length of a fight. And don't doubt that Johnson can catch Dodson. Especially when he is tired.

Grappling huge advantage to the champion. Johnson has nine career submission wins while Dodson only has two. And again with Dodson chasing the knockout often he is going to leave himself open for the takedown. Johnson also is always looking for a the submission. That's why we have seen him get submission really late. If this fight hit the ground it's because Johnson wants it to. And a big factor in general will be the fact that Johnson is simply a more well rounded fighter. And another simple fact Dodson has looked good since the first fight but Johnson has looked amazing. I think it took Mighty Mouse a little time to adjust to flyweight but now he's got down.

My pick as if you can't tell is another dominate win for Demetrius Johnson. I see him easily being able to avoid the early firestorm of Dodson. The wrestling can be the perfect thing to tire the challenger out. Dodson's best chance is to catch Johnson early and we know he can do that. But he did that in the first fight and it didn't get him a win.

Frank Mir 18-9 MMA 16-9 UFC vs. Andrei Arlovski- 24-10 1 NC MMA 13-4 UFC- Often we hear the term “Years in the making” to hype things. This fight really is years in the making. 2004 at UFC 48 Mir won the UFC Heavyweight championship. A few months later he was involved in a motorcycle wreck that broke his leg. In 2005 at UFC 51 Arlovski won the Interim Heavyweight Championship. Than similar to what we saw with Dominick Cruz when Mir couldn't return after being out so long the UFC stripped Mir of the title and promoted Andrei to full champion. Eventually Mir did get back but for various reasons the fight never took place and for a long time Arlovski was out of the UFC and Mir was still there. What makes this fight more interesting is the fact that both these guys not that long ago seemed to be done as elite fighters and now they are rallying back into title contention.

Arlovski last fought in May at UFC 187 he knocked out Travis Browne. It was one of the craziest fights in MMA history. Arlovski came in hurt almost didn't fight due to a leg injury, he rocked Browne several times. Than out of no where Browne lands a desperation punch and connects and hurts Andrei. Both men were out on there feet but Arlovski managed to land that big punch late and he finally finished his former training partner off. And craziest of all that was just one round The Pit bull enters on a five fight winning streak. Mir getting a really quick turn around he just fought on July 15^th on a UFC Fightnight. He knocked Todd Duffee. It was the kind of fight where both guys just came on swinging rock and sock em robots style. Mir landed the best punch and won. Mir is now at two wins in a row.

Striking I gotta give the edge to Arlovski he has 17 career knockouts Mir only has five. Now Mir does have power and if he catches you can go out. Both men have lost 7 times each by Knockout. But just watching there striking style it's clear Arlovski has the cleaner style. I think as long as he doesn't get to wild he will be able to catch Mir. Also with Mir we have seen times where he gets beat up and starts to shut down. Arlovski is real aggressive and Mir doesn't always like that on the feet.

Grappling the edge goes to Mir who has nine career submission wins some of which come over the sports very best. Arlovski only has three submission wins. Neither man has a submission loss. While Arlovski is ranked as a sambo master Mir has the BJJ blackbelt. And with Mir a lot of time he's looking for that submission. Sometimes it simply comes down to what a fighter wants to do. I think Arlovski will be looking to stand up. Mir why he might be willing to exchange if it goes to the ground he will be fine staying down there. And Mir has had times where he's been hurt and got that submission out of no where.

My pick though is Andrei Arlovksi. As much as I like Frank Mir part of me feels like the two wins were helped he's got lately are more to do with the decline of opponents. I just see this fight playing out with Arlovski using that great boxing to hurt him and finish him off. I think this could be like the time Mir fought JDS or Overeem where the power just to much for the guy at this stage in his career.

Anthony Johnson 19-5 MMA 10-5 UFC vs. Jimi Manuwa 15-1 MMA 4-1 UFC- This is a battle of two big tall and powerful strikers. For one it's a chance to start working back towards a title shot for the other its a chance to show he belongs in talk of being a title contender. Johnson last fought back in May at UFC 187 against Daniel Cormier for the vacant Light Heavyweight title. Early on he rocked DC with a powerful punch. But he didn't get the finish he was really reckless and soon Cormier got some take downs and wore Rumble out. Third round Johnson submitted to a rear naked choke. Manuwa last fought in April at a UFC Fightnight. He beat Jan Blachowicz via decision.

Both men are known for there striking and both have knockout power. Johnson has 13 career wins via KO. Manauwa also has 13 wins via knockout. Johnson has one knockout loss and Manuwa's only loss was to Guffstosson via knockout. I gotta go with Johnson in terms of the advantage. Manuwa has a lot of win knockout but not against elite competition. Johnson knocked out Guffstosson and little Nog and even beat Arlovksi in WSOF. Plus Johnson works with the great Henry Hoft. I can see Johnson being able to knockout Manuwa out.

Neither guy is known for there ground game. However you never know either guy could look to go the ground since the other won't be expecting. I am going to give a slight edge in grappling to Johnson he was a junior college champion. While AJ dos have four career losses via Submission Manuwa only has one submission. Also just again I am going to give the edge to Johnson because of his team. The Blackzillians have a lot of good wrestlers and some great coaches. A huge X-Factor for Johnson is the fact he's faced and beat a higher level of competition. It says something that Johnson knows I KO'ed Little Nog, I beat Mauler, I put Phil Davis in a shell. Manuwa one time against an upper level fighter he got beat.

Should really come as no shock I'm picking Johnson to get the win. The guys that give Johnson trouble are people that can tire him out by making him wrestle. Unless Manuwa has this massive leap up in wrestling skill I don't see that happening. There is always that risk that with guys like this that are going to trade power shots of just a good punch or kick taking Johnson out. But I am counting on Johnson working with a better team and having faced that elite level in the past. First round KO for Johnson.

Jan Blachowicz 18-4 MMA 1-1 UFC vs. Corey Anderson 5-1 MMA 2-1 UFC- Blachowicz last fought in April losing to Jimi Manuwa via decision. It was his first loss since 2011. At one point it was booked to fight to fight Johnson but the UFC changed things move him down this fight. Former TUF champion Anderson last fought in April as well. He was knocked out by Gian Villante. It was a fight he appeared to be winning but he caught and knocked out. That was his first career loss. I'll be honest I really don't know much about either fighter. Anderson has a higher KO rate at 3 out of Five wins. While Blachowciz only has 5 out of 18. But Blachowciz has seven submission to Anderson's zero. So it's the old battle of the vet trying make a push vs. the younger up and comer. Call it a guy felling I'm going with Anderson.

Paige Vanzant 5-1 MMA 2-0 UFC vs. Alex Chambers 5-2 MMA 1-1 UFC- Sometimes you get a fighter like Robbie Lawler who becomes a champion but its after many years of fighting. And ups and downs. Than you get a fighter like Jon Jones who seems gets fast tracked. Paige Vanzant is on the fast track. She is only 21 years old. She has the big deal with Reebok and now she's on her second consecutive main card. But for Vanzant that means all the pressure is on her to win. Chambers enters with no pressure and everything to gain. A lot of fighters love that position. And for Chambers if she wins she steals all that momentum.

Vanzant last fought in April at a UFC on Fox Card. Like I said there was a lot of pressure for that fight. You had people including former champion Carla Esparza saying she didn't deserve a lot of attention. She was matched up with a veteran fighter in Felice Herring who she dominated. It seemed like every time the scrambled or exchanged Vanzant was willing to outwork her. Chambers last fought in May she submitted Kallian Curran and earned performance of the night. That put put Chambers at 1-1 in the UFC.

This is a strange fight to pick. Chambers has more knockouts and submissions but Vanzant is a much younger fighter. Vanzant in her early twenties while Chambers is in her thirties. Vanzant appears to have a much larger upside similar someone like Rory MacDonald who got to the UFC at a young age. She's also working with the bigger team in Team Alpha Male. Meaning she's in there with Faber, Dillishaw, Mendes and other top fighters. Plus a younger fighter can often learn quicker and trainer harder.

So I am picking Paige Vanzant. She's seems to get better in every fight. Her lone loss was to Ticea Torres who is a top contender in that division. Working with Alpha Male will work to her advantage. And she showed a willingness to keep digging in that fight with Hearing. That can be the thing that takes her over the top over Chambers.

Rest of the Card

Felder over Pearson- Give me the younger fighter who should motivated coming off his first loss. Pearson is a straight boxer I think that allows Felder to be more diverse and land some shots using his kicks.

Rivera over Lineker- A big part of this is due to the fact Lineker is a fly weight that could never make weight so they are bumping him up to a higher weight class. Also Rivera has only bee KO'ed once. I think weight move and fact power doesn't always come up will allow Rivera to win.

Pennington over Andrade- First fight was close. I think Pennington is just tough enough she can close the gap and get the win this time.

Trator over Collard-Toss up fight so I am tossing it up.

Stallings over Riggs- Joe Riggs has a lot of hard miles on the body in his UFC return there is nothing that convinces me he's going to be able to last very long.

Silva over Malegarie- Silva is undefeated all wins in the first round so I am picking him.