Right now the light
heavyweight title picture is a little unclear. It appear Jon Jones
will get the chance to regain the championship. But the rest of
division's pecking order can shake out. Big card live on Fox.
Anthony Johnson
20-5 MMA 11-5 UFC vs. Ryan Bader 20-4 MMA 12-4 UFC- Two
very similar guys. Both are bigger Light Heavyweights, started as
wrestlers but developed into power strikers. Most importantly both
men want a shot at the title. Ryan Bader last fought in October at
UFC 192 he beat former champion Rashad Evans. Pretty one sided fight
Evans talked a lot but it was Bader that fought the more effective
fight. He is now on a fight fight winning streak. Bader feels and he
has a legit argument he should have gotten title shot. But he saw DC
get the shot at the Vacant title when Jones got in trouble than he
sees Guffston get the first shot at DC. So
you got a very motivated Ryan Bader who has shown great improvement
the last few years. Johnson last fought in September at UFC 191 took
less than two rounds to knock out Jimi Manuwa. Johnson
lost the vacant title fight
against Cormier. A win over
Bader cuts his road back to the title down for him.
Striking
it's the power of Rumble Johnson vs. A much more technical Ryan
Bader. Like I said Johnson has the knockout power. Out of 20 win he
has 14 via knockout and five of those are at 205 lbs. He's
got one shot power. He connects and guys go out. Bader early on was a
very powerful striker and prone to get into brawls just look at the
Trexiura fight. He only has 6 career knockout win. Part of that is
due to the fact that in recent years he has become more controlled in
his striking. He waits to pick his shots and would rather land combos
than that one big shot. Johnson's lone TKO loss was due to eye injury
he's never been KO'ed with a strike. Bader has been KO'ed twice and
famously he got rocked against Tito Ortiz. But
again part of that is due to him being wild. This isn't the guy that
charged into a punch from Machida. I do have to give Johnson edge
though in striker. Even when you are smart fighting a guy like Rumble
it just take that one punch.
Both
men started as wrestlers Johnson was a champion at the Junior college
level. Bader went to Arizona State. He was a very accomplished
wrestler winning three Pac 10 titles, was a multi time All American.
Neither guy really uses
there wrestling much in MA. Johnson talked about working more
wrestling after his loss to Cormier. But we haven't seen him face a
good wrestler since that fight as Manauwa has no real wrestling
background. We know the game plan to beat Johnson at 205. DC showed
it take him down make him carry you and wear him out. And flat on
your back you can't do much striking. And the number don’t' look
good for Johnson he has one career submission and four of losses saw
him tap out. Bader has four career submission wins he has tapped out
twice. But I give Bader the edge in the ground game.
Big
X-Factor is cardio. In his
losses its the same story for Johnson. It
goes to the later rounds he starts to tire out. Epically in Cormier
loss he was taken down and couldn’t do anything off his back. He
was exhausted and you saw him break. Also Johnson
appears to be that has
of fighter that puts everything into every punch and kick. Now
that works great when you connect and knock the guy out. But if you
miss or the guy can take it. It leaves you with nothing. Bader he
isn’t' going all out anymore. But that lets you have more in the
later rounds. Big key this is a five round fight. With Johnson any
shot can end this fight. But I
just see Bader keeping his distance looking for his spot getting a
takedown and this fight dragging on. I think Bader wins.
Josh Barnett 34-7
MMA 6-2 UFC vs. Ben Rothwell 35-9 MMA 5-3 UFC- I would call both men
veteran fighters but that makes them sound to young and
inexperienced. Between
them I do think they have fought for every major MMA company ever.
Both guys also have that
rebel streak in them. And
both can make one final run at the title. Rothwell
last fought in June at a UFC fight night he submitted Matt Mitrione
in less than two minutes. He's now won three fights in a row after
being a win for a loss guy in his UFC career. He
was supposed to fight Stipie Miocic but Stipie got hurt and because
of the rankings and the way thing fell it was Rothwell that had to
wait why Stipie got a fight with Arlovski. Barnett
last fought in September at
a UFC Fight Night. Took him all five rounds but he beat up Roy Nelson
pretty good and got a unanimous decision win. That was his first
fight in
nearly two years.
Numbers
give Rothwell the striking advantage. He has twenty career knockout
wins. He's always been known as a powerful striker. He stunned a lot
o people by knockout out Overeem not that long ago. He's also only
lost via knockout four times. The last one came in 2009 to Cain
Velasquez. Barnett openly said he likes to bang while he's only
gotten eight career knockout win. He's not easy to knockout though.
Only two of those losses are via knockout. One was to Perdo Rizzio a
very dangerous striker. The other was to Travis Browne and you have
to remember Barnett went for a takedown but left his head exposed got
caught with a series of hard elbows. Neither guy is really know to be
super tight with there technique. Like I said Rothewell has the
advantage.
Grappling
advantage goes to Barnett. The War Master has twenty career
submission wins. He's also won a BJJ championship in the black belt
division. But he's not really a BJJ guy. He's a catch wrestler which
gives him a different style of grappling and submissions than most
guys. On his record he only has two submission losses. Nietehr was
due to a submission hold making him tap. One was he got hurt and than
in the other he was trapped under Cro Cop and getting punched and
gave up to avoid more damage. Rothwell does have 12 career submission
win with only two submission losses. It could get interesting if it
goes to the ground. But I think on the ground Barrnett will have the
edge. I also think Barnett will be more willing to try a takedown
over a Rothwell who might just go nuts wanting to strike.
Both
guys train with smaller teams. Barrnett with Erik Paulson as his head
trainer. Also the last few years Barrnett has begun training and
corning other fighters more. A lot of people have said that has been
good for him. Its part of why he started fighting again after a long
layoff. Rothwell currently trains out of Rothwell MMA a gym he
started in his home town. But since making that change and focusing
more on himself instead of the usual big team big name gym he's
turned his career around. This
is a very close honestly I could see it going either way. Give
me Barrnett I think he's just a better fighter fought bigger names.
We have seen Rothwell have real letdowns.