UFC on Fox Picks

Right now the light heavyweight title picture is a little unclear. It appear Jon Jones will get the chance to regain the championship. But the rest of division's pecking order can shake out. Big card live on Fox.

Anthony Johnson 20-5 MMA 11-5 UFC vs. Ryan Bader 20-4 MMA 12-4 UFC- Two very similar guys. Both are bigger Light Heavyweights, started as wrestlers but developed into power strikers. Most importantly both men want a shot at the title. Ryan Bader last fought in October at UFC 192 he beat former champion Rashad Evans. Pretty one sided fight Evans talked a lot but it was Bader that fought the more effective fight. He is now on a fight fight winning streak. Bader feels and he has a legit argument he should have gotten title shot. But he saw DC get the shot at the Vacant title when Jones got in trouble than he sees Guffston get the first shot at DC. So you got a very motivated Ryan Bader who has shown great improvement the last few years. Johnson last fought in September at UFC 191 took less than two rounds to knock out Jimi Manuwa. Johnson lost the vacant title fight against Cormier. A win over Bader cuts his road back to the title down for him.

Striking it's the power of Rumble Johnson vs. A much more technical Ryan Bader. Like I said Johnson has the knockout power. Out of 20 win he has 14 via knockout and five of those are at 205 lbs. He's got one shot power. He connects and guys go out. Bader early on was a very powerful striker and prone to get into brawls just look at the Trexiura fight. He only has 6 career knockout win. Part of that is due to the fact that in recent years he has become more controlled in his striking. He waits to pick his shots and would rather land combos than that one big shot. Johnson's lone TKO loss was due to eye injury he's never been KO'ed with a strike. Bader has been KO'ed twice and famously he got rocked against Tito Ortiz. But again part of that is due to him being wild. This isn't the guy that charged into a punch from Machida. I do have to give Johnson edge though in striker. Even when you are smart fighting a guy like Rumble it just take that one punch.

Both men started as wrestlers Johnson was a champion at the Junior college level. Bader went to Arizona State. He was a very accomplished wrestler winning three Pac 10 titles, was a multi time All American. Neither guy really uses there wrestling much in MA. Johnson talked about working more wrestling after his loss to Cormier. But we haven't seen him face a good wrestler since that fight as Manauwa has no real wrestling background. We know the game plan to beat Johnson at 205. DC showed it take him down make him carry you and wear him out. And flat on your back you can't do much striking. And the number don’t' look good for Johnson he has one career submission and four of losses saw him tap out. Bader has four career submission wins he has tapped out twice. But I give Bader the edge in the ground game.

Big X-Factor is cardio. In his losses its the same story for Johnson. It goes to the later rounds he starts to tire out. Epically in Cormier loss he was taken down and couldn’t do anything off his back. He was exhausted and you saw him break. Also Johnson appears to be that has of fighter that puts everything into every punch and kick. Now that works great when you connect and knock the guy out. But if you miss or the guy can take it. It leaves you with nothing. Bader he isn’t' going all out anymore. But that lets you have more in the later rounds. Big key this is a five round fight. With Johnson any shot can end this fight. But I just see Bader keeping his distance looking for his spot getting a takedown and this fight dragging on. I think Bader wins.

Josh Barnett 34-7 MMA 6-2 UFC vs. Ben Rothwell 35-9 MMA 5-3 UFC- I would call both men veteran fighters but that makes them sound to young and inexperienced. Between them I do think they have fought for every major MMA company ever. Both guys also have that rebel streak in them. And both can make one final run at the title. Rothwell last fought in June at a UFC fight night he submitted Matt Mitrione in less than two minutes. He's now won three fights in a row after being a win for a loss guy in his UFC career. He was supposed to fight Stipie Miocic but Stipie got hurt and because of the rankings and the way thing fell it was Rothwell that had to wait why Stipie got a fight with Arlovski. Barnett last fought in September at a UFC Fight Night. Took him all five rounds but he beat up Roy Nelson pretty good and got a unanimous decision win. That was his first fight in nearly two years.

Numbers give Rothwell the striking advantage. He has twenty career knockout wins. He's always been known as a powerful striker. He stunned a lot o people by knockout out Overeem not that long ago. He's also only lost via knockout four times. The last one came in 2009 to Cain Velasquez. Barnett openly said he likes to bang while he's only gotten eight career knockout win. He's not easy to knockout though. Only two of those losses are via knockout. One was to Perdo Rizzio a very dangerous striker. The other was to Travis Browne and you have to remember Barnett went for a takedown but left his head exposed got caught with a series of hard elbows. Neither guy is really know to be super tight with there technique. Like I said Rothewell has the advantage.

Grappling advantage goes to Barnett. The War Master has twenty career submission wins. He's also won a BJJ championship in the black belt division. But he's not really a BJJ guy. He's a catch wrestler which gives him a different style of grappling and submissions than most guys. On his record he only has two submission losses. Nietehr was due to a submission hold making him tap. One was he got hurt and than in the other he was trapped under Cro Cop and getting punched and gave up to avoid more damage. Rothwell does have 12 career submission win with only two submission losses. It could get interesting if it goes to the ground. But I think on the ground Barrnett will have the edge. I also think Barnett will be more willing to try a takedown over a Rothwell who might just go nuts wanting to strike.

Both guys train with smaller teams. Barrnett with Erik Paulson as his head trainer. Also the last few years Barrnett has begun training and corning other fighters more. A lot of people have said that has been good for him. Its part of why he started fighting again after a long layoff. Rothwell currently trains out of Rothwell MMA a gym he started in his home town. But since making that change and focusing more on himself instead of the usual big team big name gym he's turned his career around. This is a very close honestly I could see it going either way. Give me Barrnett I think he's just a better fighter fought bigger names. We have seen Rothwell have real letdowns.