UFC Fight Night Picks

Last year the UFC and Fox Spots held a great show during NFL Playoff Weekend. This year we got a PPV level card. The Main Event features a great world champion vs. the man that never lost the title. A former Lightweight Champion taking a Champion in other promotions and a damn good heavyweight clash.

UFC Bantamweight Championship T.J. Dillashaw (c) 11-2 MMA 8-2 UFC vs. Dominick Cruz 20-1 MMA 3-0 UFC- In boxing you often hear the term lineal champion. That is when ever a world champion is for what ever reason is stripped or vacates his title. Dominick Cruz is the lineal champion of the UFC Bantamweight Division. He was awarded the title when the WEC was absorbed into the UFC he than suffered an injury and just had setback after setback. Two ACL replacement, a torn groin. After being unable to fight for more than two years the UFC stripped him of the title and promoted than Interim champion Renan Barao to full champion. Of course it was Dillashaw that than stunned the world and beat Barao easily to win the title in 2014 just a few months after Cruz was stripped. But now Cruz has his chance to get his belt back and for Dillashaw it's the chance to show the world he is the true champion. There is some back story here given Dillashaw's former team and there history with Cruz. Also lots of trash talk. Plus the fact both fighter are very similar.

Cruz last fought in September of 2014 that his first fight since 2011. He was matched up with than number five ranked Takeya Mizugaki. It took him just over a minute to knock him out. Cruz's lone loss was way back in 2007 he was a little over matched vs. Faber at the time. People have to remember before he got hurt he was dominate champion and he didn't just get lucky he was looking great vs. Mizugaki and than knocked him out. But he again couldn’t' stay healthy he suffered an ACL tear in the other leg missed all of 2015. Dillashaw only fought once in 2015 that was in July in the rematch with Barao. There had always been the question from the first fight was he lucky? Did Barao over look him? Could he do it again? And he could do it again. He dominated Barao beat up him up badly again. Barao the man we once called the best bantamweight in the world looked like a new guy guy doing hard sparing for the first time. Finally in the forth Dillashaw hit a 22 punch combination. You don't do 22 combos in video games.

The stand up game should be very interesting. Both these guys relay a lot on foot work. Movement is the big key in there game plan. We have often heard people say “Dillashaw is Cruz 2.0” or Cruz saying “You stole my game plan and won.” But there are some key differences. Dillashaw is more of an offensive based fighter. He's coming forward looking to get an angle and land outside the pocket of the fight. That said because he can be very aggressive we have seen him get clipped a few times. Cruz on the other hand more a defensive fighter more of a counter striker. He's able to protect himself better but also we don't see him score the big knockouts. Cruz is also more a straight boxer mostly using punches. Dillashaw a student of Bang Ludwig uses kicks more often. In terms of power clear edge to Dillashaw he's got six career knockouts in his career including his last three. He's only been knocked out once. Cruz has seven career knockouts including his last fight. But that his first TKO since 2008 that wasn't a doctor's stoppage. Cruz has never been knocked out. I will give the edge to Dillashaw, the power, the more diverse style.

Both men have wrestling background. Now Cruz was a community college wrestler. Dillashaw actually went to Cal State Fullerton had a lot of success in the Pac 10. That said Cruz has shown to keep up with great wrestler very well including Faber. Dillashaw has a good habit of mixing in his wrestling. Second fight than Barao he wrestled a lot and wore him out. In terms of submission not a whole lot to write about with Cruz. His lone loss was due to Faber via submission. He also only has one submission win. Not likely he will use a submission but he's good enough to not get caught. Dillashaw has never been submitted. He only has three submission wins. Again not very likely. From what I have seen its going to be a draw.

Looking at the X-Factors. Both men have had some issues with there training camps. Cruz longtime member of Alliance MMA. Recently Alliance had some guys leave all for Power MMA. Not clear how much that will directly affect Cruz. Often guys have certain guys at the gym they regular spar with. Guys they really trust. But Dillashaw has made a huge change. He left his long time home gym of Alpha Male in Sacramento to go to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado. Now the plus side is he's back to working regularly with Duane “Bang” Ludwig the striking coach that took him to the next level. But Bang is not at Elevation he's at his own school so it's not like Bang is back to being a head coach. Also the question is will the move affect him. Alpha Male is a top level gym high level talent through out to spar and train with. Good coaches. Bang can take care of his stand up but what about grappling, strength and conditioning. Elevation is new camp with some good guys and UFC talent but we are yet to see it become Alpha Male. So coaching and training it appear Cruz has an advantage.

I am picking Dillashaw to win it and I think he scores another big knockout in the later rounds. My main reason is Cruz's long layoff. I know he went through a camp and he looked great last time out. But I would rather have the active fighter. We don't know Cruz will reaction if he gets hit, if he get dragged into the later rounds. Also Dillashaw is still getting better.

Anthony Pettis 18-3 MMA 5-2 UFC vs. Eddie Alvarez 26-4 1-1 UFC- This is one of those fight that's been kicked around for a while. Fans have wanted to see it. There was a real argument or thought they could have fought for the title not that long ago. Now it appears they are fishing for a title shot. Pettis last time out was about as bad a night any world champion has ever had in the UFC. It was March at UFC 185 he faced off with Rafael dos Anjos. Early on he got caught with a big punch caused major swelling in his eye. He never really got into the fight he took hard kicks and punches all night was taken down. Even in the corner his trainer was telling him they needed to do something big. By the end of the fight it was clear he was beaten man. Alvarez in June at UFC 188. He faced off with Gilbert Melendez in a fight people had wanted to see for a long time. He scored a decision win and had a very freaky moment. His noise was apparently broken in the first round. During the break he blew the noise and it caused one of his eyes to swell shut. That fight was the classic example of doing enough to get the judges to mark your name.

Both these men are known for there stand up games. Pettis one of the most amazing strikers. Numerous highlight reel moments. Pettis has seven career knockouts and never been knocked out. Really outside of the RDA fight he's never taken that much damage standing up. He's got good punching but most know for his kicking. He got good kickboxing and a Taekwondo blackbelt. Alvarez is the Philadelphia fighter. He comes forward he will take punches. Most fight he winds up bleeding and bruised. Power actually favors Alvarez he's got 14 knockouts and only been knocked out once. Pettis appears to be the more talented and technical striker. But his last two fight he's wanted to counter fight and come off the cage. And I think that cost him. He took more damage against Melendez than he should have and got badly beaten up vs. RDA. That said with Pettis has great hand and even better kicks. Alvarez needs this to be a brawl. But I will give the edge Pettis.

Pettis' has a very underrated ground game. He's got eight career submission wins. He's the only man to stop Gilbert Melendez when he tapped him out. He also tapped out Benson Henderson when he won the UFC title. That also said we have seen him struggle when someone can pressure him with wrestling. That's how Clay Guida beat him and RDA mixed in the takedowns very well. That said he's never been submitted. Alvarez has seven career submissions wins but hasn't had one since 2010. He's also lost three fight via submissions. Going to give the edge to Pettis he's not just good on the top but very good from the bottom.

Both fighter have made changes to there training camps. Pettis remains with Roufus sport but has also begun working with Izzy Martinez who is a great wrestling coach and works with both Jon Jones and Holly Holm among others. He basically felt after the loss to RDA he needded a wrestling coach the same level Duke Roufus is in the striking game. Even when's back in Milwaukee he's got guys like Ben Askren to drill with. Alvarez had spent the last few years with the Blackzillians team. Recently he moved back to Philadelphia. I think that means he's back working with his original team. That can have benefits the team and camp is more built around you. The guys coaching really know you. On the flip side you don't have the same level of fighters to train with. Gotta give the advantage to Pettis. He's always been a Roufus guy and he's got a great team to work with.

I'm picking Pettis to win and I think he rebounds with a submission win. You feel like if Alvarez has a chance to win he's got to make a brawl. But even as a brawl Pettis can win it. If this winds up being more technical or more about point fighting that Pettis has the skills to easily control it. Plus this goes to the ground I can see him submitting Alvarez. I think Pettis gets the win.

Travis Browne 17-3-1 MMA 7-3-1 UFC vs. Matt Mitrione 9-4 MMA and UFC- Wasn’t' all that long ago Browne was on a 3 fight winning streaks having knocked out Gonzaga, Overeem, and Barnett. Than he ran into Fabrico Werdum and lost a very one sided fight. He went from 3 wins in a row to being 1-2 in his last three fights. Issues outside the cage have also slowed him down. Mitrione always been seen as a great athlete but he's never become a truly great fighter. He gets a lot of wins but seems there is always that glaring hole in his game. Right now we know who the upper level of the division are the winner gets into that the loser faces becoming below a gate keeper. Browne last fought at UFC 187 in May. He suffered a KO loss to Andre Arlovski. That was one of the greatest fights ever. Early on Arlovski hurt Browne but than Browne landed that one big shot and dropped Arlovski. Browne though was still so out of it he lost position and than Arlvoski finished the fight. Mitrione last fought in June at UFC Fight Night 68. He was submitted by Ben Rothwell.

Both men have big time knockout power. Browne has 13 career knockout wins. He's got very heavy hands. But we have also seen him do very well KO'ing guys with elbows. He has been knocked out twice. One of those was after he suffered an injury and couldn't move the other was to Arlovski. Mitrione has 8 career knockouts. He also only has one career knockout loss. I think the edge goes to Browne he's not out a more impressive list of guys and has a reach advantage. Also I think he's got a little better technical striker.

Neither guy really known for there ground game. Browne has two career wins via submission. His last one coming way back at UFC 145 in 2012. Browne has never lost via submission and he has faced guys with good ground games. The most notable was current champion Werdum. Mitrone has never scored a submission win and he has been submitted twice. Just on the eyeball test he's not really comfortable. Don't think it will be much of a factor will give the edge to Browne. My pick is Travis Browne. I think his size and power will be the key.