UFC 196 Picks

I listen to a lot of sports talk radio. And they stick to NFL or College football, NBA and college basketball some baseball epically as we get closer to opening day. And its because those are what people care about. Well one day not to long ago I was listening to Dan Le Batard and he start just starts playing “Baby put on the red panties our ship has come in…. I'll change his bum life… I will decapitate him and take his head through the streets of Brazil.” And pretty much every other McGregor clip you can think of. And the hosts are loving it talking how excited they are for the fight. One guy goes “I don't even watch the sport and I want to see this guy fight.” Than after they go to break I switch over to Jim Rome. And what do I hear “My man Conor McGregor already back at it listen to what he had to say...” It just shows how big McGregor has become. That two national radio shows that could talk about anything in sports are talking about him.

Its simple McGregor has become an event in his own right. Much like Floyd Mayweather it doesn't matter if you love him or hate him your watching. And people that don’t' watch this sport are checking it out.

Conor McGregor 19-2 MMA 7-0 UFC- vs. Nate Diaz 18-10 MMA 13-8- It was supposed to history. It was supposed to me McGregor bid for the lightweight title. But an injury forces RDA to the sidelines and now we got Nate Diaz facing off with McGregor. In a strange turns we have the UFC Featherweight champion taking on a man mostly know for his run at Lightweight fighting at Welterweight. McGregor last December at UFC 194. It took 13 seconds to topple a decade of greatness. He finally got his fight with Jose Aldo. Picture perfect slips the punches and lands his own. Aldo wakes up crying and McGregor is cashing checks. He's not 7-0 in the UFC and finished six of seven. He is by far the the biggest star the sport has right now. Nate Diaz fought a week later he had a exciting fight with Michael Johnson and got a decision win. After words he called out Conor and well he got him. Nate is a guy that always demands more money more big fights he can get all here.

Both men clearly love to stand up. But you got polar opposite styles in stand up. Diaz is a straight boxer he comes forward throws a lot of jabs. McGregor is a very diverse striker. He always moves he always is cutting angles. He will spin and jump and kick just as much as he punches. Nate has a two inch reach advantage. But I'm giving the edger to McGregor. McGregor has never been KO'ed and he's fought very dangerous strikers in his UFC career. He's has 17 career knockout. Best example of his striking is against Aldo. We have seen Aldo face knockout power punches before. McGregor though is the one that put him to sleep. Diaz only has been knocked out once in his career. On the flip side though he's only won via KO four times. If you look at those wins there against Maynard a guy whose chin is gone, Markham a guy that had was never a contender and two guys that were never in the UFC. Also Nate Diaz only really wants to fight one way. He wants to come forward and punch. He has real problems with guys that move and never seems to be able to check leg kicks. You do have the issue of Connor coming up in weight. However I think McGrergor is more of timing and accrusity puncher than a guy that just uses power. I think McGregor moves I think he wears out Diaz and I think he doesn't fight the fight Diaz wants.

On paper the grappling edge goes to Diaz. He's a BJJ black belt. He's got 11 career submission wins only lost once via submission. He's only lost via submission once that was way back in 2006. On the flip side of that McGregor only has one submission win. Both of his losses come via submission. Also UFC 189 we saw him struggle with the wrestling of Chad Mendes. That all said I don't know how much grappling there will be in this fight. Diaz is not known for strong wrestling. He actually hasn't had a submission win since 2012 when he beat Jim Miller. In recent years it seems he just wants to box. Also at UFC 189 McGregor was working with bad knee so we don't know how much that affected him.

This is a short notice fight. Diaz is taking it on only 11 days notice. Huge edge for McGregor. In terms of style he goes from a BJJ blackbelt that is smart and has a diverse striking attack to a very one dimensional fighter in Diaz. Also I know we have heard Diaz and Dana White talk about what great shape he's in. But not have a full camp can really hurt you. Being in Tri athalon shape is not fighting shape.

To me this pick is real easy. Even with the size I don't think Diaz can do much. McGregor is great with his movement. There really isn't another fighter like him out there so its not like Diaz can spar much to get use to that movement. Diaz only wants to box and come straight a head. Often we wonder if knockout power follows a fighter up. But in McGregor's case I don't think it's “Power” I think it's the fact he has amazing timing and is super accurate landing on the button. Mystic Mac has said he wins in the first round and I'm not about to disagree with him.

UFC Bantamweight Championship Holly Holm (c) 10-0 MMA 3-UFC vs. Miesha Tate-17-5 MMA 4-2 UFC- There has got to be a part of Miesha Tate that hates and feels so much jealous for Holly Holm. Holm got the title shot she that in Tate's mind was her's. She than won the title Tate has made clear she wants and beat the woman that Tate has been obsessed with. Yet than Tate does a bunch of victory laps acting like she won. But for Tate its her chance to win the title. Holm last fought in November at UFC 193. History was made. One of the biggest events in MMA history and she pulled off the upset of all time. She was facing Ronda Rousey a person people (Like Tate because she actually said it.) thought the UFC was putting her in there to lose to. But Holm used Rousey's aggressiveness against her. Great footwork, good jab. Hurt her with an elbow and than in the second round knocked her out with the head kick. Tate last fought in July at a UFC on Fox against Jessica Eye. Early on she was losing that fight but rallied back strong and got the decision win. There was the controversy as that fight was billed as a number one contender fight. She won but the title shot went to Holm since Tate already had lost to Rousey twice.

100% the striking advantage goes to Holly Holm. She was a boxing champion her foot work is amazing. In MMA we have seen her use her kicks. She clearly has power in legs of her 7 career MMA knockouts 6 of them come from kicks. Tate is very much so a “I'm going to bit down on the mouth piece and swing away” striker. Tate has been knocked out twice and rocked in a number of fights. And she really doesn't have knockout power with only three career knockouts. She really doesn't use movement well. Honestly I think she is a worse version of Rousey when it comes to striking because Rousey is still a work in progress and has shown knockout power. Tate might now be as likely to keep standing but I just don't see this fight going her way at all on the feet.

Now the grappling advantage on paper goes to Tate. She wrestled in high school has had some success with high level grapplers in the past. Also she has six career submission wins and only been submitted by Rousey. That said we saw how good Holm's takedown defense is against Rousey she also escaped the arm bar. Tate also has a bad habit of getting desperate with her takedowns. I think even if she can take her down its going to be hard keep Holm down. Also keep in mind Tate has not had a submission win since 2012. So yes edge goes to her but not a huge one.

I have to pick Holly Holm. All fights start on the feet. Holm's striking it outstanding. To me Tate is to easy to hit we have seen her get caught plenty of times. Now's she tough will get back up but how many times can you let Holm hit you? And Holm won't rush a finish she just seems to smart and experienced to throw wild when she does hurt Tate. I don't see this fight playing out much on the ground as I think Tate only goes for takedowns after she's been hurt these days. Also Holm has amazing kicks and she throw different kicks that will keep Tate at range. I think Holm gets a first round finish.