UFC 197 Picks

Interim UFC Light Heavyweight Championships Jon Jones 21-1 MMA 15-1 UFC- vs. Ovince Saint Preux 19-7 MMA 7-2 UFC- This was supposed to be the big rematch. The big grudge match take two. The chance for Jones to regain the title he never lost. The chance for the champion to show he was truly the best. Instead it will be an interim title fight. Instead Jones will return into a fight he is heavily favored to win. For OSP this is the single biggest fight of his career. Will Jones will return to top form or will OSP join the ranks of Holly Holm and Nate Diaz as stunning upsets?

Jones his last fight was in January of 2015 at UFC 182. He Daniel Cormier a guy many thought was his many thought was his biggest threat. Instead it was pretty one sided fight. DC had his moments but I don’t think anyone thought Cormier won that fight. We all know the story. Jones has been such a dominate fighter his only loss was on a DQ. And everyone knows what happened after that fight the hit and run being stripped of his title. Getting sober and than being put in Jail on a parole violation. It truly seems the only one that can stop Jon Jones is Jon Jones. OSP last fought in February at a UFC Fight Night he got a decision win over Rafael Cavalcante he's won 3 of his last 4. But we still wait for the day this guy truly becomes a contender.

In terms of striking the numbers are similar both men have nine career knockouts. Jones of course has never been knocked out and really the only time he's ever been hurt was against Gustffson. Both mean also have very long reach. Jones 84.5 and OSP 80. Now few fighters are as good as using there reach as Jon Jones. Now the one time he has real issues was against was Guffstson who has a 79 inch reach the only time hasn’t had 10 or more inches in advantage. That said I can't see OSP have the same success. Mainly he's not as technical as the Mauler. Jones is not only long but he's so diverse he punches and and kicks he lands knees and elbows. He's got great ground and pound. Advantage Jones.

Clear advantage for Jones on the ground. He's an amazing wrestler. Only Gusstsfson and Cormeir have ever taken him down. And with DC he was clearly the better wrestler that night. OSP we don’t' see much wrestling. When he lost to Bader a lot of that was due to him getting takendown and not being able to stand up again. Jones has six submission and never been submitted. OSP has five and been submitted once. Although one of his submission wins was on a injury. Also Jones has done it against a higher level of fighter so again advantage Jones.

UFC Flyweight Championship Demetrius Johnson (c) 23-2-1 MMA 11-1-1 UFC vs. Henry Cejudo 10-0 MMA 4-0 UFC- This fight reminds me of Rousey vs. Holm in a few ways. You have a dominate champion the only person to hold the title since the division started. You have a challenger that was very successful in a combat sport before the MMA career began. Who quickly earned a reputation in smaller promotions. Who many who have seen him believe he can be the one to upset that champion and take the title. Johnson last fought in September at UFC 191. It was a rematch with John Dodson. In the first fight Dodson had hurt Johnson few times with big punches. Many thought he was the biggest threat to the champion. But Johnson made all the right adjustments. He stiffed Dodson the entire fight controlled it and won a easy decision victory. Cejudo last fought in November at TUF Latin America Finals. He faced off with Jussier Formiga. That was a tough test for him. He was facing a top five guy lot of big show experience. He did manage to pull out a split decision win.

When it comes to the striking game I give the edge to Johnson. In terms of power each man has four career knockouts. But Ce judo all came early in his career when he wasn't fighting elite competition. Johnson again doesn't have many but one is on Joseph Benavidez and he's the only guy to stop that guy. Also really since the first fight with Dodson he doesn't really get hit that much. He's very smart with his striking has near perfect technique and has amazing speed. Now Cejudo does appear to have good striking but he's still learning and doesn't have the same speed or tehcqine Johnson does. If this becomes a kickboxing fight bet on Mighty Mouse.

The wrestling pedigree goes to Cejudo. In 2008 during the Beijing Olympics he won a gold medal. He was one of those special athletes that was picked up and training at the Olympic Center when he was a teenager. That’s a lot of mat times against a lot of elite wrestlers. Now Johnson is a very good wrestler he just was never at the same level Cejudo was. That said we know MMA wrestling is different than Freestyle wrestling. So I don't think it will just be Cejudo easily taking Johnson down non stop. In terms of the submission game clear edge to Johnson. He has nine career submission wins. He's never been submitted. Cejduo has never scored a submission win. I am calling it a draw in grappling.

Couple of the X-Factors to look at one is teams. Johnson is a member of AMC Pankration and is trained by Matt Hume. Its a great team and a highly respected ttrainer. Its one of those cases of the perfect coach with the perfect student. Hume knows it all and Johnson wants to learn it all. Cejudo works with a smaller team. Seems he's the one big name out of it. Now you can say that has it benefits such as he's the focus his coaches worry about him. But I am picking AMC over a smaller team. Another X-factor is level competition. Cejudo has faced some very good guys. But Johnson has faced elite fighters and beat them. His only losses are are to Brad Pickett and Dominick Cruz and that was at Bantamweight. Hardly bad guys to lose to. Hell Cruz is a P4P best. Edge to Johnson.

My pick is Johnson. Cejudo can be champion some day. But right now there is a real argument that Johnson is the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now. He's great at everything and he only works to get better. He's very much like Floyd Mayweather in that he doesn't take a lot of damage and he seems to get better as the fight goes on. He studies and adjusts on the fly very well. He's also a guy that is on the attack all the time. That's why he has so many late finishes because he's looking to finish the fight.

Anthony Pettis 18-4 MMA 5-3 UFC vs. Edson Barboza 16-4 MMA 10-4 UFC- Just over a year ago Pettis was on top of the world. He was the lightweight champion having just defeated Gilbert Melendez in his first title defense. He was coming off a TUF coaching stint and was on a Wheaties Box. Dana White even came out and said Pettis should be in the debate for pound for pound best. Than it all came crashing down he would lose his title in a one sided fight with Rafael dos Angos. Than he would suffer an injury training for his comeback and he would miss the rest of the year. Finally in January of this year he would return and lose a decision to Eddie Alvarez. All of his losses have the same game plain its when he's forced into a wrestling match. Its a clear hole in his talents. For many years Barboza has been viewed as a future champion. He how ever has never really cashed in on the potential. Barboza last fought in December he was submitted by Tony Ferguson in a FOTN. He's now 1-2 in his last three fights. '

When you think about both men you think about there striking. Pettis has the taekwondo background. He was the man behind the showtime kick. His hands are very good and his kicks are deadly. He's got very good power having scored 7 career knockouts. He's also never been knocked out. That said last few fights he seems to wants to fight off the cage and counter strike. That was why Melendez had a lot of success against him what cost him against RDA and let Alvarez out wrestle him. Hopefully this fight he gets back to being more of the attacker. Barboza has great Muay Thai. He has amazing kicks as well. And great power. Nine career MMA knockouts he won 22 Muay Thai fights via knockout as well. And he's only bee knocked out once. I actually have to say draw when it comes striking. Really it feels like if Barboza can land hard and first he will take over. If Pettis keeps it moving and lands first than he takes over.

Often when you have two great strikers that cancels it out and comes down to the ground game. In BJJ he has a brown belt while Barboza is a Purple belt. Pettis has eight career submission wins. Barboza only has two. Another factor Pettis is very tricky off his back don't forget it was a submission from his back that won the lightweight title for him. On top of that he's been working his wrestling with Izzy Martinez. It doesn't seem Barboza has the strong wrestling that guys like Guida, RDA and Alvarez have to get Pettis down and control him.

Robert Whittaker 15-4 MMA 6-2 UFC vs. Rafael Natal 21-6-1 MMA 9-4-1 UFC- Two surging Middleweights on winning streaks do battle here. Whittaker last fought in November at UFC 193 he beat Uriah Hall by decision. Going into that fight Hall had all the moment he was coming off a huge win. He got the best of Hall all night long it felt. That’s four wins in a row three since moving up in weight to 185. Natal last fought in January at a UFC on Fox card he knocked out Kevin Casey. He's also won four in a row. At this stage it's not just can you win it's can you win impressively.

Both men are six foot but Natal will carry a 2.5 inch reach advantage. But Whittaker has the power and the chin advantage. He has 7 career knockouts and only been knocked out. Natal has four career knockouts and been knocked out four times. Edge goes to Whittaker. The edge for Natal comes in the ground game. He's a BJJ blackbelt never been submitted in MMA and has eight career submission win. Whittaker has 5 career submission wins and only lost once via submission but Natal is dangerous. Toss up fight could go either way but Whittaker is the one I think takes it.

UFC on Fox Fallout

It was a card that was going to be loaded. It was a card that was supposed to give us the next title challengers in two weight classes and see which aging legend could mount another run. Sadly it became a card hit by a injures and two PED issues. Shogun Rua and Tony Ferguson both were the injures. Lyoto Machida was the high profile PED issue. Still though the UFC manged to keep enough of the card together and the fighters showed up willing to perform.

The In Ring Action- Glover Teixeria has often spoke of the fact Mike Tyson is his favorite fighter. And his win over Rashad Evans was Tyson like. Teixeria backed Evans up early on landed a devastating hook to the chin that dropped the former champion and than followed up with a shorter vvicious hook from the other side that put Evans out cold. Glover has clearly put the two fight losing streak behind him and is back to being a top contender who might has put himself in the perfect postion to get a title shot later this year or early next year. For Evans you can't help but wonder if we are seeing the end of a career. In the co-main event Rose Namajunas avenged his previous loss to Tecia Torres. As expected the two straweights kept a high pass in the end Namamajunas takedown and her ability to steal rounds was key. After two long years plagued by injures Khabib Nurmagomedov returned. Darrell Horcher offered little opposition to AKA product but can hold hi head high for taking the risk against such a talented foe. For Nurmagomedov simply getting through a camp and fighting should be viewed as a win. In the opening fight of the night Cub Swanson returned to his old form and got a much needed win beating Harcran Dias. The prelims saw exciting finishes by Michael Chiesa, John Dodson, Santiago Pnzinbibio, and Michael Graves.

Biggest Winners

Glover Teixeria- There is no denying Teixeria has put himself right back into title contention with a KO win over Evans. First if OSP can some how upset Jon Jones he can make the claim of having already beat OSP. And the call out of Johnson makes sense in several way. The fight should be great with two powerful strikers. And it would a great stay busy fight for Johnson. Even if he can't Rumble Teixera will no doubt get another top contender or featured fight in his next UFC appearance.

Rose Namajunas- She backed up her dominated win over Paige VanZant by hanging the first official loss on another top five fighter. She showed improved takedowns. Also she never got overwhelmed even after being hurt with a punch in the first round. The 115 division is still forming with three wins in a row and an interesting style and growing fan base we very well could see Thug Rose getting a second chance to gain the UFC title.

Khabib Nurmagomedov- He was 22-0 the last man to beat the current champion entering the fight. He also hadn't fought in nearly two years. It seemed to be a cruel pattern he was injured would rehab have a comeback fight set and than another injury would force him to pull out. Finally he managed to get into a camp and fight. With Tony Ferguson out the fight became a tune up fight with new comer Darrell Horcher. Nurmagomedov was also very honest point blank admitting he couldn't afford to lose to Horcher. Early on The Eagle looked rusty early on but eventually got back into the grove.

Darrell Horcher- Officially it goes down as a loss but Horcher deserves respect. Horcher was dominated but still had moments where he looked good. Everything worked against him in this fight he had never fought on a show as large as a UFC event, he had never faced anyone close to a top ten fighter, and he took it on extremely short notice. Odds are Horcher will get another UFC fight and this time face someone more on his level.

Biggest Losers

Lyoto Machida- Any time fighter is linked to banned substances it taints his legacy. USADA will likely show Machida some leancy since he disclosed his use instead of getting caught with a failed test. Already several fighters have openly blasted him online. It also doesn’t help that Machida's story is he simply didn't know the substance was banned. Except that excuse doesn’t hold much water and any high level athlete has a team around them that should keep track of what is banned. Epically given Machida is friends and shares a manager with Anderson Silva another fighter who claimed “I didn't know” not that long ago.

Rashad Evans- He looked slow and unwilling to engage. Evans is now 0-2 since returning from ACL injury that kept him out all of 2014 and most of 2015. For a fighter like Evans who relied greatly on speed and athleticism a leg injury could career ending. Evans also was knocked out for the second time in the career. Anyone watching the post fight show clearly saw a devastated Evans unsure of where his career goes from here. Why its not out of the question that Evans could fight and win again it seems at thirty six he may be unable to ever truly contend for a championship again.

The Referee for Nurmagomedov vs. Horcher- I tried to find his name but couldn't It's not personal against the guy. I just feel he took way to long to stop this fight. Why Horcher was still trying to escape he took way to many unprotected shots to the head. The referee should have stopped the fight sooner.

What Comes Next- For Texeria the fight with Rumble Johnson makes all the sense in the world. Both men are extremly powerful strikers with knockout power. The highlight reel used for the promos alone would sell the fight it would perfect main event for FOX or Fightpass event or co-main for a PPV in the fall. Also why Rumble appears to be next in line for a title shot he will have to wait. It's not clear when DC will be back and there always a chance the winner of Jones vs. OSP could be hurt as well and need time off. Plus the UFC already seems to be leaning towards doing unification fight at the MSG debut in November. Plus if Johnson is truly the number one contender he should be able to beat Glover.

Dana White said Rose Namajuans is still a few fights away from another title shot. He even admitted he doesn't want to rush into another shot given she's only 23. I think a perfect fight for her would be Michelle Waterson. Waterson is the former Invicta Atomweight champion and is 1-0 UFC. She was supposed to fight Torres at UFC 194 but pulled out with an injury. She like Namajunas she has a background in traditional martial arts. Match up wise it could be very compelling and would give Thug Rose another win over a top ten fighter.

UFC on Fox Picks

Rashad Evans 19-4-1 MMA 13-4-1 UFC vs. Glover Teixeira 24-4 MMA 7-2 UFC- Evans was going to face Shogun Rua but an injury to Rua forces him out. Teixeria steps in on late notice. Evans former champion and Texieria former title challenger. These two were booked to fight in February of last year but injures forced both to pull out. Both have faced recent issues and a win moves them up in line. Evans last fought at UFC 192 in October. He had been out for two year dealing with a leg injury. He was facing Ryan Bader going in he talked a big game about trash talking all night and KO'ing Bader. Instead he looked very rusty. Unless his game plan was to headbutt Bader's hand until it was broken. He lost a decision. Teixeira last fought in November he KO'ed Patrick Cummins after beating him up badly. That was two wins in a row and two finishes.

Both men have knockout power. And have shown very good chins. Each has only lost via knockout once in there careers. Teixeira has 14 career knockouts. Teixeira is a rugged brawler he often speak of Mike Tyson being his hero. Evans has 7 career knockouts. He is more of a mover. He like to dance taunt guys. IF Teixeira is trying to be Tyson Evans is a bit like Mayweather. Power I gotta give the edge to Teixeira but when you brawl you leave yourself open just watch his fighter with Bader. Glover is taller with the longer reach so edge standing up goes to him.

In terms of grappling we got a former University of Michigan Wrestler vs. a BJJ Blackbelt. Evans was the college wrestler. But as his MMA career has gone on he uses his wrestling a lot less. Now Evans has never lost via submission but he also only has 2 career submission wins. Teixeira BJJ blackbelt has 7 career wins via submission and never been submitted. In terms of the advantage I'm giving it to Glover.

To me this is a very close fight. Even with me giving Glover the edge in stand up and the ground game I don’t' feel he has a huge advantage in either and truth is Evans could wind up being better than I am thinking. I think one thing that will help is Glover is more active not having dealt with the same injures. I am picking Teixeira to get the win in this fight. I see it going the distance and it being a decision win.

Lyoto Machida 22-7 MMA 14-7 UFC vs. Dan Henderson 31-14 MMA 11-9 UFC- It was 2013 at UFC 157 when these two fought in the co-main event. Machida won a split decision. The way I would sum up that fight is real simple Henderson charged hoping a hay maker would connect Machida back up or cut an angle catches him with a few shots. Reset do it again. That night a lot of people thought they were fighting for a title shot at light heavyweight. Now three years later at middleweight they are fighting in for both men a must win fight. One needs this to stay a top ten fighter the other needs this to really justify keep his career going.

2015 was the worse year of Machdida's career he fought twice and lost badly both times. In April he was dominated by Luke Rockhold got taken down in the first took massive punishment barely got back to his corner after the round. Second round take down again and got submitted. His next fight was in June he faced off with Yoel Romero. Seemed like a very typical fight he has but than suddenly he got caught with a powerful punch dropped than elbows and he was out. The truth is Dan Henderson has not been a contender in a long time. He has not won consecutive fight since 2011. And if you look at the wins they are over Rua another fading star twice and Tim Boetsch a guy that isn't contender either. His last fight was in December in a rubber match with Vitor Belfort got Knocked out in just over two minutes into the fight.

The stand up is interesting in that both guys have KO power but there chins aren't as solid as they use to be. Machida has nine career knockout win and only lost twice via knockout. Now that said in those two fight I just talked about both times he got rocked pretty badly taking some shots. A big part of his advantage has been speed but at 37 you wonder if his reactions are slowing. Henderson has 15 career knockouts wins. He's only been knocked out 3 times but two of those come in his last three fights. Its an all to common sight in combat sports the great fighter passed his prime fighting on getting knocked out. The edge has got to got to Machdida. He's a much more diverse striker he will punch kick throw knees and elbows. He's also a counter striker meaning he picks his spots. Henderson is very straight a head in his attacks most of his knockouts come from the over hand right. More and more as Henderson has gotten older it feels he's just looking for that punch to connect.

Henderson had a great wrestling career. But he doesn't always use it in his MMA career. He's more of a greco wrestling often tying up and using the clinch to get a guy against the cage. But again as he's aged he's even gotten away from that. In terms of submission he really only has one. (His record says two but 1 was due to knees and the guy quitting) that his second career fight in 1997. Now he's only been submitted 4 times. All four of those guys are great fighters two of them were The Nogeria brothers the others were Anderson Silva and Daniel Cormier. Machida is a BJJ blackbelt but he only has two submission wins. His last one came back at UFC 79 back in 2007. He's been submitted twice but that was to Rockhold and Jon Jones hardly guys that slouches in there submission games. But Machida is great and countering wrestlers he's just always been able to stop them. So edge goes to the Dragon.

This is the kind of fight I could see ending early with a highlight reel KO. And just as likely I could see it going all three almost no action as Henderson charges sloppy and Machida backs up looking for his shot. The first fight was defenlty the later. Machida style does seem to led to a number of controversial descions as him back up often gives the impression he's losing. Hell after the first fight so many people claimed “The UFC screwed Henderson.” That said there are few fights where most people thought he should win and the judges said he lost. My pick though is Machida. Why I don't think he's elite anymore I think Henderson is older slower and much more limited.

Rose Namajunas 4-2 MMA 2-1 UFC vs. Tecia Torres 7-0 MMA 3-0 UFC- The straweight division is still truly forming. So really it feels like every fighter is just one win away from a title shot. We have a title fight during the summer and you feel like the winner here can claim to be the next in line. These two met once before it was July 2013 back at Invicta 6. They were the opening fight on main card for a major show. Both were 2-0 going in. It was a hell of a fight as both women went for it. We saw tons of flurries both tried to break out different moves. In the end Torres won a decision but it was a very close fight and Namajunas had her moments and you could argue she should have won if you look at it again. Shortly after that the UFC started the 115 lbs division signed both fighters and put them on TUF.

If you look back at that show Torres was ranked 3^rd going in she was one of the favorites. While Namajunas was middle of the pack at 7^th. Torres was upset early on but allowed to return when another fighter got hurt she than won a fight before losing to Carla Esparza in the semi finals. Official though those fights don't count on her record. Meanwhile Namajunas kind of stole the show she went 3-0 on the show won all three fights via submission including the than undefeated Joanne Calderwood. She also beat Rando Markos the girl that beat Torress in the opening round. Now she did lose at the finals but it shows that maybe she surpassed Torres in that time.

Both women last fought in December. Namajunas fought on the 10^th on a Fight Pass card she main evented. That was a huge weekend it was UFC 194 part of a triple header weekend. She faced off with Paige VanZant. Going into the fight both were seen as young fighters that have already shown so much potential and are only getting better. The real difference was Thug Rose is a much better technical fighter. PVZ was clearly trying to out muscle her but Rose was smart. She kept her pace worked her game plan and really dominated the fight. She picked her apart on the feet took her down over and over again. She never seemed to get upset when the finish didn't come early. Instead she was just pressing finally fifth round she got a rear naked choke and earned a submission win. Torres fought two days later on the UFC 194 prelims. She beat Jocely Jones-Lybarger via decision. Originally she was going to face Michelle Waterson a former Invicta Champion. An injury changed that. So the fight went to being one of those that she needed to win to make in impression. Torres keeps winning but you get this strange feeling like she really hasn't had a chance to show just how good she is in the UFC cage yet.

On the feet expect a lot of flurries. Both fighters are extremely active. They throw a lot of strikes. Toress is called the Tiny Tornado she comes forward and will blitz its the kind of action that never give her opponent a chance to attack because they are defending. Namajunas is similar she throws a lot of strikes. I do think there is more of a use striking to set up a takedown with Namajunas. Odds are we won't see a knockout as neither woman has one in there pro career. Namajunas does have two in Amateurism MMA career. But I can't put to much stock in that given how big mismatches can be on that stage. This could be interesting because both fighters have backgrounds in traditional martial arts. Both have blackbelts in Karate in Taekwondo. I want to give a slight edge to Namajunas based on the fact she is taller and will have reach.

In the grappling game I see a real advantage for Namajunas all four of her pro wins come via submission. While she did lose via submission to Esparza I don't think Torres has the strong wrestling that Carla did. Now Torres has never won via submission but she doesn't really go for them by what I've seen. If this goes to the ground I think Namajunas can tap her out epically if she winds up in a good position on the ground.

Again the first fight was very close. Namajunas seems to be more aggressive but Torres is that fighter that knows how to win decisions. I am going to pick Namajunas based on how close the first fight was and my feeling she has improved more since that first fight.