UFC 197 Picks

Interim UFC Light Heavyweight Championships Jon Jones 21-1 MMA 15-1 UFC- vs. Ovince Saint Preux 19-7 MMA 7-2 UFC- This was supposed to be the big rematch. The big grudge match take two. The chance for Jones to regain the title he never lost. The chance for the champion to show he was truly the best. Instead it will be an interim title fight. Instead Jones will return into a fight he is heavily favored to win. For OSP this is the single biggest fight of his career. Will Jones will return to top form or will OSP join the ranks of Holly Holm and Nate Diaz as stunning upsets?

Jones his last fight was in January of 2015 at UFC 182. He Daniel Cormier a guy many thought was his many thought was his biggest threat. Instead it was pretty one sided fight. DC had his moments but I don’t think anyone thought Cormier won that fight. We all know the story. Jones has been such a dominate fighter his only loss was on a DQ. And everyone knows what happened after that fight the hit and run being stripped of his title. Getting sober and than being put in Jail on a parole violation. It truly seems the only one that can stop Jon Jones is Jon Jones. OSP last fought in February at a UFC Fight Night he got a decision win over Rafael Cavalcante he's won 3 of his last 4. But we still wait for the day this guy truly becomes a contender.

In terms of striking the numbers are similar both men have nine career knockouts. Jones of course has never been knocked out and really the only time he's ever been hurt was against Gustffson. Both mean also have very long reach. Jones 84.5 and OSP 80. Now few fighters are as good as using there reach as Jon Jones. Now the one time he has real issues was against was Guffstson who has a 79 inch reach the only time hasn’t had 10 or more inches in advantage. That said I can't see OSP have the same success. Mainly he's not as technical as the Mauler. Jones is not only long but he's so diverse he punches and and kicks he lands knees and elbows. He's got great ground and pound. Advantage Jones.

Clear advantage for Jones on the ground. He's an amazing wrestler. Only Gusstsfson and Cormeir have ever taken him down. And with DC he was clearly the better wrestler that night. OSP we don’t' see much wrestling. When he lost to Bader a lot of that was due to him getting takendown and not being able to stand up again. Jones has six submission and never been submitted. OSP has five and been submitted once. Although one of his submission wins was on a injury. Also Jones has done it against a higher level of fighter so again advantage Jones.

UFC Flyweight Championship Demetrius Johnson (c) 23-2-1 MMA 11-1-1 UFC vs. Henry Cejudo 10-0 MMA 4-0 UFC- This fight reminds me of Rousey vs. Holm in a few ways. You have a dominate champion the only person to hold the title since the division started. You have a challenger that was very successful in a combat sport before the MMA career began. Who quickly earned a reputation in smaller promotions. Who many who have seen him believe he can be the one to upset that champion and take the title. Johnson last fought in September at UFC 191. It was a rematch with John Dodson. In the first fight Dodson had hurt Johnson few times with big punches. Many thought he was the biggest threat to the champion. But Johnson made all the right adjustments. He stiffed Dodson the entire fight controlled it and won a easy decision victory. Cejudo last fought in November at TUF Latin America Finals. He faced off with Jussier Formiga. That was a tough test for him. He was facing a top five guy lot of big show experience. He did manage to pull out a split decision win.

When it comes to the striking game I give the edge to Johnson. In terms of power each man has four career knockouts. But Ce judo all came early in his career when he wasn't fighting elite competition. Johnson again doesn't have many but one is on Joseph Benavidez and he's the only guy to stop that guy. Also really since the first fight with Dodson he doesn't really get hit that much. He's very smart with his striking has near perfect technique and has amazing speed. Now Cejudo does appear to have good striking but he's still learning and doesn't have the same speed or tehcqine Johnson does. If this becomes a kickboxing fight bet on Mighty Mouse.

The wrestling pedigree goes to Cejudo. In 2008 during the Beijing Olympics he won a gold medal. He was one of those special athletes that was picked up and training at the Olympic Center when he was a teenager. That’s a lot of mat times against a lot of elite wrestlers. Now Johnson is a very good wrestler he just was never at the same level Cejudo was. That said we know MMA wrestling is different than Freestyle wrestling. So I don't think it will just be Cejudo easily taking Johnson down non stop. In terms of the submission game clear edge to Johnson. He has nine career submission wins. He's never been submitted. Cejduo has never scored a submission win. I am calling it a draw in grappling.

Couple of the X-Factors to look at one is teams. Johnson is a member of AMC Pankration and is trained by Matt Hume. Its a great team and a highly respected ttrainer. Its one of those cases of the perfect coach with the perfect student. Hume knows it all and Johnson wants to learn it all. Cejudo works with a smaller team. Seems he's the one big name out of it. Now you can say that has it benefits such as he's the focus his coaches worry about him. But I am picking AMC over a smaller team. Another X-factor is level competition. Cejudo has faced some very good guys. But Johnson has faced elite fighters and beat them. His only losses are are to Brad Pickett and Dominick Cruz and that was at Bantamweight. Hardly bad guys to lose to. Hell Cruz is a P4P best. Edge to Johnson.

My pick is Johnson. Cejudo can be champion some day. But right now there is a real argument that Johnson is the best pound for pound fighter in the world right now. He's great at everything and he only works to get better. He's very much like Floyd Mayweather in that he doesn't take a lot of damage and he seems to get better as the fight goes on. He studies and adjusts on the fly very well. He's also a guy that is on the attack all the time. That's why he has so many late finishes because he's looking to finish the fight.

Anthony Pettis 18-4 MMA 5-3 UFC vs. Edson Barboza 16-4 MMA 10-4 UFC- Just over a year ago Pettis was on top of the world. He was the lightweight champion having just defeated Gilbert Melendez in his first title defense. He was coming off a TUF coaching stint and was on a Wheaties Box. Dana White even came out and said Pettis should be in the debate for pound for pound best. Than it all came crashing down he would lose his title in a one sided fight with Rafael dos Angos. Than he would suffer an injury training for his comeback and he would miss the rest of the year. Finally in January of this year he would return and lose a decision to Eddie Alvarez. All of his losses have the same game plain its when he's forced into a wrestling match. Its a clear hole in his talents. For many years Barboza has been viewed as a future champion. He how ever has never really cashed in on the potential. Barboza last fought in December he was submitted by Tony Ferguson in a FOTN. He's now 1-2 in his last three fights. '

When you think about both men you think about there striking. Pettis has the taekwondo background. He was the man behind the showtime kick. His hands are very good and his kicks are deadly. He's got very good power having scored 7 career knockouts. He's also never been knocked out. That said last few fights he seems to wants to fight off the cage and counter strike. That was why Melendez had a lot of success against him what cost him against RDA and let Alvarez out wrestle him. Hopefully this fight he gets back to being more of the attacker. Barboza has great Muay Thai. He has amazing kicks as well. And great power. Nine career MMA knockouts he won 22 Muay Thai fights via knockout as well. And he's only bee knocked out once. I actually have to say draw when it comes striking. Really it feels like if Barboza can land hard and first he will take over. If Pettis keeps it moving and lands first than he takes over.

Often when you have two great strikers that cancels it out and comes down to the ground game. In BJJ he has a brown belt while Barboza is a Purple belt. Pettis has eight career submission wins. Barboza only has two. Another factor Pettis is very tricky off his back don't forget it was a submission from his back that won the lightweight title for him. On top of that he's been working his wrestling with Izzy Martinez. It doesn't seem Barboza has the strong wrestling that guys like Guida, RDA and Alvarez have to get Pettis down and control him.

Robert Whittaker 15-4 MMA 6-2 UFC vs. Rafael Natal 21-6-1 MMA 9-4-1 UFC- Two surging Middleweights on winning streaks do battle here. Whittaker last fought in November at UFC 193 he beat Uriah Hall by decision. Going into that fight Hall had all the moment he was coming off a huge win. He got the best of Hall all night long it felt. That’s four wins in a row three since moving up in weight to 185. Natal last fought in January at a UFC on Fox card he knocked out Kevin Casey. He's also won four in a row. At this stage it's not just can you win it's can you win impressively.

Both men are six foot but Natal will carry a 2.5 inch reach advantage. But Whittaker has the power and the chin advantage. He has 7 career knockouts and only been knocked out. Natal has four career knockouts and been knocked out four times. Edge goes to Whittaker. The edge for Natal comes in the ground game. He's a BJJ blackbelt never been submitted in MMA and has eight career submission win. Whittaker has 5 career submission wins and only lost once via submission but Natal is dangerous. Toss up fight could go either way but Whittaker is the one I think takes it.