UFC 198 Picks

UFC Heavyweight Championship Fabricio Werdum (c) 20-5-1 MMA 8-2 UFC vs. Stipe Miocic 14-2 MMA 8-2 UFC- What was supposed to be UFC 196 was set to be Werdum defending his championship against the man he won it from Cain Velasquez. However Velasquez suffered an injury the UFC booked Micocic in his place. Than Werdum reviled he was suffering from a back injury and pulled out of the fight. Now he said he was willing to fight Velasquez but the opponent change was to much. Well now he's healed up and the UFC made the call to give Miocic the title shot over a rematch. Werdum last fight in June at UFC 188 when he won the title from Velasquez. It was about as one sided as any fight in UFC history. Going in the thought was “Well Werdum's best chance to win is a submission but Cain is the better wrestler and striker.” That was very wrong. Werdum badly beat up Velasquez on the feet. Finally his trained in desperation called for a takedown and it was like jumping into a shark tank. Werdum got a hold of the neck and submitted him. Miocic's last fight was back in January at UFC 195. It took him just 54 seconds to knockout Andre Arlovski a former champion on a long winning streak.

Both these guys have great striking. Werdum has really worked his striking over the year making it as strong as his world class BJJ. He's become a very diverse Muay Thai style striker using hard punches, kicks and knees. He's now got 6 career knockouts. That includes the very tough Mark Hunt a guy that doesn't get knocked out. Also in fight with guys like Roy Nelson and Velasquez he badly hurt them on the feet. He's only ever been knocked out once early on in his career against Junior Dos Santos. Miocic is more of a boxer. He's got 10 career knockouts including a TKO win over Mark Hunt. He's also got a great jab that keeps guys off him. He's only been knocked out once that was against Stefan Struve but he's come a long way since than. Miocic has a reach advantage 80 to 77. But Werdum again is more diverse. I like that diversity in striking so edge goes to Werdum but is Stipie starts to land he shut down Werdum's striking.

Both men also have backgrounds in grappling skills. Miocic was a division 1 wrestler we saw it in the Hunt fight he took him down early and often and beat him up with ground and pound. Werdum is a BJJ blackbelt and a world champion in various tournaments. The number clearly show an huge advantage in the submission game to Werdum. 10 career submission wins and he's never been submitted. He has submission wins over two of MMA's all time great Fedor and Big Nog. Miocic has one career submission win and he's never been submitted. Gotta give the edge to Werdum as well. Even if Miocic can take him down he may not want to stay down with him as Werdum is active off his back.

Couple things I should note this fight will be in Brazil so you know it will be a very pro Werdum crowd. Another X-Factor will be the teams. Werdum is a fighter out of King's MMA a small team but with a lot of high quality talent and coaches. Miocic fight out of Power MMA in his native Ohio. He's the biggest name out of it and the only other other UFC fighter is Jessica Eye. X-Factors that do do for Stipie are the fact he's younger and appears to be the better pure athlete.

The heavyweight championship is never held by any champion for long. So you can never say its a lock. Plus with the size and power any shot is potentially fight changing. So I think Stipie can win this fight. But I'm going with Werdum. He's got dangerous striking and anytime you are grappling with him just give him a small opening and you could wind up tapping out.

Ronaldo Souza 22-4-1 NC MMA 5-1 UFC vs. Vitor Belfort 25-11 MMA 14-7 UFC- Both these men feel they have an inside track to be the next challenger for the Middleweight title. Belfort is the last man to beat current champion Luke Rockhold however he's had a fairly recent title shot and lost. Souza fought Rockhold in a very close fight years ago and lost. But he's looked great since coming to the UFC. Both men are also known to finish fights. There is also that pride factor here as both men are from Brazil. Belfort last fought in November . It was the rubber match with Dan Henderson. Knocked him out in just over two minutes. Souza last fought in December at UFC 194. Currently the fight is listed as a loss to Yoel Romero. That fight had so much controversy around it. Romero did nearly knock him out. But later in the fight he was taking control and as he went for takedown Romero illegally grabbed the fence. The referee stood them up but didn’t take a point or really give Jacare the position he had earned. Than after the fight Romero tested positive for a banned substance.

All fight start standing and Vitor Belfort is among the most dangerous fighters standing in in the history of the sport. He is blessed with hand speed than you just can't train. He's always had great boxing now in recent years he's added more kicks to his game plan. Belfort has 18 career knockouts. He has been knocked out 4 times. Jacare's striking has actually come a long way. Number don't really tell the story with him as he only has 2 career knockouts and has been KO'ed twice also in the Romero fight he was nearly knocked out. Clearly there are still little holes in his game to exploit. That said Belfort enough needs to exploder early and blitz or it usually doesn't win up coming most of those KO's are very early on. I'd have to give the stand up advantage to Belfort.

Both men are blackbelts in BJJ but Jacare is a world champion in BJJ. He has won numerous tournaments. Early on in his MMA career he was so good at that he was able to rack up a great record just using his skills. In MMA he has 16 career submission wins he has never been submitted in a MMA fight. Belfort really does not use his BJJ skills in MMA. Number wise he only has three career submission wins. He's also been submitted twice. In the past we have often also had problems with strong wrestlers. Its that old saying if you can take a striker down and hold him down he can't strike. Big edge goes to Jacare.

This fight really could come down to where it takes place. If Belfort can keep it at range and land early on its his. If Jacare gets him down or forces him into the fence you feel like it's his. I really think Jacare is going to be extra motivated and extra smart in this fight. I think he takes it and gets the win. Call me crazy I think he gets a first round submission.