UFC 199 Picks

UFC Middleweight Championship Luck Rockhold (c) 15-2 MMA 5-1 UFC vs. Michael Bisping 28-7 MMA 18-7 UFC- A ten year UFC career spent hunting a title shot all comes down to two weeks. An injury had forced Chris Wediman out of his rematch with Luke Rockhold. Instead Rockhold will fight another rematch facing off with Michael Bisping. These have some history. They trained together a little bit and Bisping says he got the better of it when they spared. They had an actual fight in November of 2014 that night clearly Rockhold got the better of it. He really dominated the fight dropping the Bisping with a head kick and than submitting him in the second.

Rockhold last fought in December at UFC 194. That was the fight he won the title from Chris Weidman. It was a close fight. First round real argument either way it got scored. Second round was a pretty clear cut win for Rockhold. He used his great kicks control the round did some real damage to the champion. Third round it appeared to be Weidman's until he threw sloppy spin kick. Rockhold seeing his chance got him down and beat the ever living hell out of him. The result a dominate TKO victory and a new middleweight champion. Rockhold rides a five fight winning streak. Bisping is coming off the biggest win of his career. It was back in February in the UK. He faced off with Anderson Silva. What a lot people forget and ignore he actually put on a great performance. He won the first two round throwing good consistent combinations never got pulled Silva's game never froze up. He hurt Silva in the first and dropped in the second.

What people (mainly people that dislike Bisping) want to focus on is the third round. Late in the round Bisping lost his mouth piece he wanted the referee to stop the action and that allowed Anderson to hit flying knee that badly hurt him and drop him. At the same time the bell rings to end the round. The ref steps in to stop the round. The assumption is he is stooping the fight. Anderson jumps up on the cage the doctors rush in to check Bisping. Finally order is restored. We go back out for the forth round. Now at this point mentally he's left the fight, he's still badly hurt yet he comes out focus and manages win the round. Than in the fifth he survived a lot of big strikes that would have finished a lot of men. He finally won the big one and is now on a three fight winning streak.

Both men these men are very good strikers. But they are very different. Bisping is more bread and butter pressure and pace fighter. He throws a lot of jabs and crosses he mixes in some good kicks. He does have 15 career knockouts but is not often seen a power puncher. A big key to his striking is his pace he keeps guys from attacking him because he can still be throwing high levels later in fights. Rockhold is more a power striker but he only has four knockouts officially in his career. Part of that is due to his ground game. But he hurts guys when he lands. Also he doesn't wind or throw wild. Now I can only go off what I have seen and we know Rockhold can hurt Bisping. Both guys have pretty solid chins each has only been KO'ed twice. I am giving the edge to Rockhold.

As I said a big part of the reason Rockhold doesn't have a lot knockouts is due to his ground game. He often like to use his striking to set up taking the fight to the ground and getting the submission. He has a BJJ blackbelt. He has nine career submission wins and never been submitted in a fight. Bisping has only been submitted once and that was his loss to Rockhold. He does have four career submissions. But I gotta give a edge to Rockhold. He has great control just go back and watch his fight with Machida to see what I'm talking about. Also go watch his fight with Tim Boetsch where he pulled off a inverted triangle meaning he can pull off moves guys don't usually see.

The X-Factors are first Bisping only gets two weeks to get ready. By all account Bisping keeps himself in shape between fights but this being five rounds and he admits he has to cut more than twenty pounds to make weight will make it tough. Most guys also admit good shape is a level or more below fight shape. Now it does help he fought Rockhold before so it's not like he has to quickly figure out the style of a guy. The other one to me is ten years in the UFC a combat sports career that dates back to age 15, the judges giving a gift to channel Sonnen in a number 1 contender fight, having a TRT aided Belfort KO him in Brazil in a fight where if he won he was next in line. Bisping has wanted this fight a long time and he's finally got it. That could be the thing that makes him more dangerous than anyone.

The odds makers are leaving very heavy to Rockhold. I have to agree. Bisping in order to win this fight is going to have establish control early and force Rockhold to press more than he usually does. Rockhold though has that power that can just change a fight in a flash. Plus he will have a full camp that might give him the cardio edge. I think Rockhold wins and I think it could another TKO win using ground and pound sometime in the second round.

UFC Bantamweight Championship Dominick Cruz (c) 21-1 MMA 4-0 UFC vs. Urijah Faber 33-8 MMA 9-4 UFC- It all started with a poster. In March of 2007 Faber was the WEC Featherweight champion and Cruz was set to challenge him. Cruz became upset upon learning his picture was not on the poster for the event. In response during a charity signing he become writing over the picture of Faber an act the champion found disrespectful. Its been all down hill since in terms of there relationship. Its seems like every interview either one does at some point has them talk about the other and insult them.

In 2007 at WEC 26 Faber won with a Gulliteen Choke in 1:38. It is the one and only loss of Cruz's career. It would take Cruz over a year to return the WEC. Now a Bantamweight Cruz would rise up the rankings including two wins over Faber's than teammate Joesph Benavidez. Winning the WEC's Bantamweight title in 2010 and by years end when the WEC was abrosed by the UFC he was named UFC champion. That same year Faber who had lost his title and failed to regain dropped to Bantamweight setting the stage for a rematch. 2011 at UFC 132 it would take place. In a back and forth fight Cruz would win a decision evening the series up at 1-1. The third fight was set for the summer of 2012 until Cruz suffered the first in a series of injures that would limit to just 1 fight in four years.

Cruz last fought in January. It was his chance to regain what he never lost. He had been stripped of the Bantamweight championship due to injury. He would step into the cage with TJ Dillishaw. Why Dillishaw had deprated Alpha Male there was still a large amount of tension going in. The fight itself was a classic Dominick Cruz performance. Beautiful footwork great movement. He really turned Dillishaw into a head hunter he won the decision and is back as world champion. Faber last fought in December at UFC 194. He got a decision win over Frankie Saenz but it the latest in a long line poor performance by him. Now is that the decline of a fighter now in his late 30's or is that a top contender frozen out of the title picture not being as motivated as he should be.

Both men have seven career knockout wins. Cruz has never been stopped due to strikes. Faber has been knocked out three times. Also when he lost to Aldo and the first fight with Barrao while it the distance he was badly outclassed on the feet. Faber when striking tends to be flat on his feet and throw wild looping shots. If you had a fighter that every young MMA fighter should try to be like. He's is always on the balls of his feet. He is always moving. He never get wild instead throw perfect tight shot keeping his defense up. If you try to attack him he is moving out of the way with a slip and odds are coming right back with a counter. I see a huge advantage on the feet for Cruz.

Both men have wrestling backgrounds. Faber went further wrestling in college at UC Davis. Both have used there wrestling to win fights over the years. Now of course Faber beat Cruz with a choke in the first fight. Cruz has always only won once via submission. He does use his wrestling for control also had very good defense. Faber has 19 career submission wins and never been submitted. I see a slight edge for Faber.

I think a huge X-Factor will be Cruz is willing to change. The way Cruz talks he is always looking for the next level in this sport. He want to be perfect. Even when he was hurt he was telling people “You don't understand I am getting smarter I am better than I ever was.” Faber on the other hand doesn't seem to want to change. It seems that led to the falling out with Bang Ludwig and seems to be par tof the reason why a few of Alpha Males top fighters have gone elsewhere. The other X-Factor could be like with Bisping, Faber might be looking at this his final shot and will be willing to do anything to win. Of course the flip side could be Faber over commits to something and gets hurt by a perfect Cruz counter.

My pick is Dominick Cruz. I see this huge advantage on the feet. He's not going to be schooled on the ground. Cruz is not the guy to make a huge mistake because he learned from that one loss. He's finally healthy been able to have back to back training camps. Faber meanwhile hasn't looked good in a while. He's still very much the same fighter he was back in the WEC. I think this goes five rounds and it's another decision win for Cruz.

Max Holloway 15-3 MMA 11-3 UFC vs. Ricardo Lamas 16-4 MMA 7-2 UFC- Name value wise not the biggest fight but for fans that know what these two can do it the potential fight of the night. These are two top fight rated featherweight. One has had a title shot and the other wants one badly. Holloway last fought in December at UFC 194. He scored a unanimous decision win over Jeremy Stephens. It was a clear case of who was the better fighter. He's now won an incredible eight fights in a row. Lamas last fought in November TUF Latin America Finale. He dominated Diego Sanchez badly beat up in a way no other fighter ever has. It was a strong rebound after being knocked out by Chad Mendes in the fight before that.

In terms of power Max is Blessed with the advantage. He's won 6 fight via KO while Lamas only has 4. Lamas also has been KO'ed three times. Now the reach will be tied by Holloway uses more kicks. Now the ground game Lamas appears to have an edge He's got more submission 4 to 2. Also Lamas loves the smother your style. He's more likely to be looking to tie up and grapple. But Holloway can grapple so he won't be just held down.

I'm going to pick Max Holloway. He's the younger fighter but already has tons of high level experience. He's also looked so great during this recent run. Lamas is tough but I think Holloway will be get the better of him.

Dan Henderson 31-14 MMA 8-7 UFC vs. Hector Lombard 34-5-1 2NC MMA 3-3 1 NC UFC- Two of the most experienced fighters in the middleweight division do battle. Both men have won championships in other promotions but never held the UFC title. And both fighters need this win. Both have really some major downs the last few years. Henderson has not won back to back fights since 2011. Lombard is setting at 500 in the UFC and is coming off a long suspension for a failed drug test. And lets be honest one guy is 45 the other is 38 so if they are at that point where you need to win every single fight.

Henderson last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. It was his third fight with Vitor Belfort. In the second fight he had been KO'ed by a head kick just over a minute into the fight. Well third fight went a bit better. It took over two minutes for Belfort to hit the head kick and KO him. Like I said he's not won back to back fights since 2011. Lombard last fought in March at another UFC Fight Night. It was his return from a PED suspension and he faced Neil Magny. Early on he had Magny hurt and seemed like it was going to be a big stoppage win. But in the second round Magny had recoverd started using his range and hurt Lombard. In the third Magny kept control and finished Lombard with strikes.

When it comes to there striking both men are knowing for there power. When it comes to Henderson it's the big over hand right that scored most of them. Hendo has 15 career knockouts wins. Now Henderson has 3 career losses via knockouts but all three of those come since 2013. On top of that over the years he's been in some real wars and well the chin doesn't get better as a fighter gets older. Lombard 19 career knockouts. He's only been knocked out once. I'm going with Lombard better chin and Henderson game plan these days seems to be charge throw over hand repeat. And it doesn't work.

Both men have great grappling backgrounds. Henderson very successful Greco Roman wrestler won medals in the Pan Americans and the Worlds. Lombard 4^th dan blackbelt in Judo and during his Judo career won numerous major tournaments. The truth is though neither guy really uses those skills in MMA. Number say there is an edge to Lombard he has seven career submission wins and never been submitted in MMA. Henderson has two career submission wins and has four career submission losses.

My head says pick Lombard. He's younger taken less punishment it seems in his career. But than you have Henderson who remains dangerous enough. Just look at his rematch with Shogun he was getting clipped over and over again and than bang hit that homerun shot. Went in a fought Boetsch he got that shot and dropped him for the win. So if Lombard just goes for broke he could win up taking the H bomb. But I'm sticking with the head. I think Lombard wins and gets a decision win.