Sunday, April 10, 2016

UFC on Fox Picks


Rashad Evans 19-4-1 MMA 13-4-1 UFC vs. Glover Teixeira 24-4 MMA 7-2 UFC- Evans was going to face Shogun Rua but an injury to Rua forces him out. Teixeria steps in on late notice. Evans former champion and Texieria former title challenger. These two were booked to fight in February of last year but injures forced both to pull out. Both have faced recent issues and a win moves them up in line. Evans last fought at UFC 192 in October. He had been out for two year dealing with a leg injury. He was facing Ryan Bader going in he talked a big game about trash talking all night and KO'ing Bader. Instead he looked very rusty. Unless his game plan was to headbutt Bader's hand until it was broken. He lost a decision. Teixeira last fought in November he KO'ed Patrick Cummins after beating him up badly. That was two wins in a row and two finishes.



Both men have knockout power. And have shown very good chins. Each has only lost via knockout once in there careers. Teixeira has 14 career knockouts. Teixeira is a rugged brawler he often speak of Mike Tyson being his hero. Evans has 7 career knockouts. He is more of a mover. He like to dance taunt guys. IF Teixeira is trying to be Tyson Evans is a bit like Mayweather. Power I gotta give the edge to Teixeira but when you brawl you leave yourself open just watch his fighter with Bader. Glover is taller with the longer reach so edge standing up goes to him.



In terms of grappling we got a former University of Michigan Wrestler vs. a BJJ Blackbelt. Evans was the college wrestler. But as his MMA career has gone on he uses his wrestling a lot less. Now Evans has never lost via submission but he also only has 2 career submission wins. Teixeira BJJ blackbelt has 7 career wins via submission and never been submitted. In terms of the advantage I'm giving it to Glover.



To me this is a very close fight. Even with me giving Glover the edge in stand up and the ground game I don’t' feel he has a huge advantage in either and truth is Evans could wind up being better than I am thinking. I think one thing that will help is Glover is more active not having dealt with the same injures. I am picking Teixeira to get the win in this fight. I see it going the distance and it being a decision win.



Lyoto Machida 22-7 MMA 14-7 UFC vs. Dan Henderson 31-14 MMA 11-9 UFC- It was 2013 at UFC 157 when these two fought in the co-main event. Machida won a split decision. The way I would sum up that fight is real simple Henderson charged hoping a hay maker would connect Machida back up or cut an angle catches him with a few shots. Reset do it again. That night a lot of people thought they were fighting for a title shot at light heavyweight. Now three years later at middleweight they are fighting in for both men a must win fight. One needs this to stay a top ten fighter the other needs this to really justify keep his career going.



2015 was the worse year of Machdida's career he fought twice and lost badly both times. In April he was dominated by Luke Rockhold got taken down in the first took massive punishment barely got back to his corner after the round. Second round take down again and got submitted. His next fight was in June he faced off with Yoel Romero. Seemed like a very typical fight he has but than suddenly he got caught with a powerful punch dropped than elbows and he was out. The truth is Dan Henderson has not been a contender in a long time. He has not won consecutive fight since 2011. And if you look at the wins they are over Rua another fading star twice and Tim Boetsch a guy that isn't contender either. His last fight was in December in a rubber match with Vitor Belfort got Knocked out in just over two minutes into the fight.



The stand up is interesting in that both guys have KO power but there chins aren't as solid as they use to be. Machida has nine career knockout win and only lost twice via knockout. Now that said in those two fight I just talked about both times he got rocked pretty badly taking some shots. A big part of his advantage has been speed but at 37 you wonder if his reactions are slowing. Henderson has 15 career knockouts wins. He's only been knocked out 3 times but two of those come in his last three fights. Its an all to common sight in combat sports the great fighter passed his prime fighting on getting knocked out. The edge has got to got to Machdida. He's a much more diverse striker he will punch kick throw knees and elbows. He's also a counter striker meaning he picks his spots. Henderson is very straight a head in his attacks most of his knockouts come from the over hand right. More and more as Henderson has gotten older it feels he's just looking for that punch to connect.



Henderson had a great wrestling career. But he doesn't always use it in his MMA career. He's more of a greco wrestling often tying up and using the clinch to get a guy against the cage. But again as he's aged he's even gotten away from that. In terms of submission he really only has one. (His record says two but 1 was due to knees and the guy quitting) that his second career fight in 1997. Now he's only been submitted 4 times. All four of those guys are great fighters two of them were The Nogeria brothers the others were Anderson Silva and Daniel Cormier. Machida is a BJJ blackbelt but he only has two submission wins. His last one came back at UFC 79 back in 2007. He's been submitted twice but that was to Rockhold and Jon Jones hardly guys that slouches in there submission games. But Machida is great and countering wrestlers he's just always been able to stop them. So edge goes to the Dragon.



This is the kind of fight I could see ending early with a highlight reel KO. And just as likely I could see it going all three almost no action as Henderson charges sloppy and Machida backs up looking for his shot. The first fight was defenlty the later. Machida style does seem to led to a number of controversial descions as him back up often gives the impression he's losing. Hell after the first fight so many people claimed “The UFC screwed Henderson.” That said there are few fights where most people thought he should win and the judges said he lost. My pick though is Machida. Why I don't think he's elite anymore I think Henderson is older slower and much more limited.



Rose Namajunas 4-2 MMA 2-1 UFC vs. Tecia Torres 7-0 MMA 3-0 UFC- The straweight division is still truly forming. So really it feels like every fighter is just one win away from a title shot. We have a title fight during the summer and you feel like the winner here can claim to be the next in line. These two met once before it was July 2013 back at Invicta 6. They were the opening fight on main card for a major show. Both were 2-0 going in. It was a hell of a fight as both women went for it. We saw tons of flurries both tried to break out different moves. In the end Torres won a decision but it was a very close fight and Namajunas had her moments and you could argue she should have won if you look at it again. Shortly after that the UFC started the 115 lbs division signed both fighters and put them on TUF.



If you look back at that show Torres was ranked 3rd going in she was one of the favorites. While Namajunas was middle of the pack at 7th. Torres was upset early on but allowed to return when another fighter got hurt she than won a fight before losing to Carla Esparza in the semi finals. Official though those fights don't count on her record. Meanwhile Namajunas kind of stole the show she went 3-0 on the show won all three fights via submission including the than undefeated Joanne Calderwood. She also beat Rando Markos the girl that beat Torress in the opening round. Now she did lose at the finals but it shows that maybe she surpassed Torres in that time.



Both women last fought in December. Namajunas fought on the 10th on a Fight Pass card she main evented. That was a huge weekend it was UFC 194 part of a triple header weekend. She faced off with Paige VanZant. Going into the fight both were seen as young fighters that have already shown so much potential and are only getting better. The real difference was Thug Rose is a much better technical fighter. PVZ was clearly trying to out muscle her but Rose was smart. She kept her pace worked her game plan and really dominated the fight. She picked her apart on the feet took her down over and over again. She never seemed to get upset when the finish didn't come early. Instead she was just pressing finally fifth round she got a rear naked choke and earned a submission win. Torres fought two days later on the UFC 194 prelims. She beat Jocely Jones-Lybarger via decision. Originally she was going to face Michelle Waterson a former Invicta Champion. An injury changed that. So the fight went to being one of those that she needed to win to make in impression. Torres keeps winning but you get this strange feeling like she really hasn't had a chance to show just how good she is in the UFC cage yet.



On the feet expect a lot of flurries. Both fighters are extremely active. They throw a lot of strikes. Toress is called the Tiny Tornado she comes forward and will blitz its the kind of action that never give her opponent a chance to attack because they are defending. Namajunas is similar she throws a lot of strikes. I do think there is more of a use striking to set up a takedown with Namajunas. Odds are we won't see a knockout as neither woman has one in there pro career. Namajunas does have two in Amateurism MMA career. But I can't put to much stock in that given how big mismatches can be on that stage. This could be interesting because both fighters have backgrounds in traditional martial arts. Both have blackbelts in Karate in Taekwondo. I want to give a slight edge to Namajunas based on the fact she is taller and will have reach.



In the grappling game I see a real advantage for Namajunas all four of her pro wins come via submission. While she did lose via submission to Esparza I don't think Torres has the strong wrestling that Carla did. Now Torres has never won via submission but she doesn't really go for them by what I've seen. If this goes to the ground I think Namajunas can tap her out epically if she winds up in a good position on the ground.



Again the first fight was very close. Namajunas seems to be more aggressive but Torres is that fighter that knows how to win decisions. I am going to pick Namajunas based on how close the first fight was and my feeling she has improved more since that first fight.

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