UFC 199 Picks

UFC Middleweight Championship Luck Rockhold (c) 15-2 MMA 5-1 UFC vs. Michael Bisping 28-7 MMA 18-7 UFC- A ten year UFC career spent hunting a title shot all comes down to two weeks. An injury had forced Chris Wediman out of his rematch with Luke Rockhold. Instead Rockhold will fight another rematch facing off with Michael Bisping. These have some history. They trained together a little bit and Bisping says he got the better of it when they spared. They had an actual fight in November of 2014 that night clearly Rockhold got the better of it. He really dominated the fight dropping the Bisping with a head kick and than submitting him in the second.

Rockhold last fought in December at UFC 194. That was the fight he won the title from Chris Weidman. It was a close fight. First round real argument either way it got scored. Second round was a pretty clear cut win for Rockhold. He used his great kicks control the round did some real damage to the champion. Third round it appeared to be Weidman's until he threw sloppy spin kick. Rockhold seeing his chance got him down and beat the ever living hell out of him. The result a dominate TKO victory and a new middleweight champion. Rockhold rides a five fight winning streak. Bisping is coming off the biggest win of his career. It was back in February in the UK. He faced off with Anderson Silva. What a lot people forget and ignore he actually put on a great performance. He won the first two round throwing good consistent combinations never got pulled Silva's game never froze up. He hurt Silva in the first and dropped in the second.

What people (mainly people that dislike Bisping) want to focus on is the third round. Late in the round Bisping lost his mouth piece he wanted the referee to stop the action and that allowed Anderson to hit flying knee that badly hurt him and drop him. At the same time the bell rings to end the round. The ref steps in to stop the round. The assumption is he is stooping the fight. Anderson jumps up on the cage the doctors rush in to check Bisping. Finally order is restored. We go back out for the forth round. Now at this point mentally he's left the fight, he's still badly hurt yet he comes out focus and manages win the round. Than in the fifth he survived a lot of big strikes that would have finished a lot of men. He finally won the big one and is now on a three fight winning streak.

Both men these men are very good strikers. But they are very different. Bisping is more bread and butter pressure and pace fighter. He throws a lot of jabs and crosses he mixes in some good kicks. He does have 15 career knockouts but is not often seen a power puncher. A big key to his striking is his pace he keeps guys from attacking him because he can still be throwing high levels later in fights. Rockhold is more a power striker but he only has four knockouts officially in his career. Part of that is due to his ground game. But he hurts guys when he lands. Also he doesn't wind or throw wild. Now I can only go off what I have seen and we know Rockhold can hurt Bisping. Both guys have pretty solid chins each has only been KO'ed twice. I am giving the edge to Rockhold.

As I said a big part of the reason Rockhold doesn't have a lot knockouts is due to his ground game. He often like to use his striking to set up taking the fight to the ground and getting the submission. He has a BJJ blackbelt. He has nine career submission wins and never been submitted in a fight. Bisping has only been submitted once and that was his loss to Rockhold. He does have four career submissions. But I gotta give a edge to Rockhold. He has great control just go back and watch his fight with Machida to see what I'm talking about. Also go watch his fight with Tim Boetsch where he pulled off a inverted triangle meaning he can pull off moves guys don't usually see.

The X-Factors are first Bisping only gets two weeks to get ready. By all account Bisping keeps himself in shape between fights but this being five rounds and he admits he has to cut more than twenty pounds to make weight will make it tough. Most guys also admit good shape is a level or more below fight shape. Now it does help he fought Rockhold before so it's not like he has to quickly figure out the style of a guy. The other one to me is ten years in the UFC a combat sports career that dates back to age 15, the judges giving a gift to channel Sonnen in a number 1 contender fight, having a TRT aided Belfort KO him in Brazil in a fight where if he won he was next in line. Bisping has wanted this fight a long time and he's finally got it. That could be the thing that makes him more dangerous than anyone.

The odds makers are leaving very heavy to Rockhold. I have to agree. Bisping in order to win this fight is going to have establish control early and force Rockhold to press more than he usually does. Rockhold though has that power that can just change a fight in a flash. Plus he will have a full camp that might give him the cardio edge. I think Rockhold wins and I think it could another TKO win using ground and pound sometime in the second round.

UFC Bantamweight Championship Dominick Cruz (c) 21-1 MMA 4-0 UFC vs. Urijah Faber 33-8 MMA 9-4 UFC- It all started with a poster. In March of 2007 Faber was the WEC Featherweight champion and Cruz was set to challenge him. Cruz became upset upon learning his picture was not on the poster for the event. In response during a charity signing he become writing over the picture of Faber an act the champion found disrespectful. Its been all down hill since in terms of there relationship. Its seems like every interview either one does at some point has them talk about the other and insult them.

In 2007 at WEC 26 Faber won with a Gulliteen Choke in 1:38. It is the one and only loss of Cruz's career. It would take Cruz over a year to return the WEC. Now a Bantamweight Cruz would rise up the rankings including two wins over Faber's than teammate Joesph Benavidez. Winning the WEC's Bantamweight title in 2010 and by years end when the WEC was abrosed by the UFC he was named UFC champion. That same year Faber who had lost his title and failed to regain dropped to Bantamweight setting the stage for a rematch. 2011 at UFC 132 it would take place. In a back and forth fight Cruz would win a decision evening the series up at 1-1. The third fight was set for the summer of 2012 until Cruz suffered the first in a series of injures that would limit to just 1 fight in four years.

Cruz last fought in January. It was his chance to regain what he never lost. He had been stripped of the Bantamweight championship due to injury. He would step into the cage with TJ Dillishaw. Why Dillishaw had deprated Alpha Male there was still a large amount of tension going in. The fight itself was a classic Dominick Cruz performance. Beautiful footwork great movement. He really turned Dillishaw into a head hunter he won the decision and is back as world champion. Faber last fought in December at UFC 194. He got a decision win over Frankie Saenz but it the latest in a long line poor performance by him. Now is that the decline of a fighter now in his late 30's or is that a top contender frozen out of the title picture not being as motivated as he should be.

Both men have seven career knockout wins. Cruz has never been stopped due to strikes. Faber has been knocked out three times. Also when he lost to Aldo and the first fight with Barrao while it the distance he was badly outclassed on the feet. Faber when striking tends to be flat on his feet and throw wild looping shots. If you had a fighter that every young MMA fighter should try to be like. He's is always on the balls of his feet. He is always moving. He never get wild instead throw perfect tight shot keeping his defense up. If you try to attack him he is moving out of the way with a slip and odds are coming right back with a counter. I see a huge advantage on the feet for Cruz.

Both men have wrestling backgrounds. Faber went further wrestling in college at UC Davis. Both have used there wrestling to win fights over the years. Now of course Faber beat Cruz with a choke in the first fight. Cruz has always only won once via submission. He does use his wrestling for control also had very good defense. Faber has 19 career submission wins and never been submitted. I see a slight edge for Faber.

I think a huge X-Factor will be Cruz is willing to change. The way Cruz talks he is always looking for the next level in this sport. He want to be perfect. Even when he was hurt he was telling people “You don't understand I am getting smarter I am better than I ever was.” Faber on the other hand doesn't seem to want to change. It seems that led to the falling out with Bang Ludwig and seems to be par tof the reason why a few of Alpha Males top fighters have gone elsewhere. The other X-Factor could be like with Bisping, Faber might be looking at this his final shot and will be willing to do anything to win. Of course the flip side could be Faber over commits to something and gets hurt by a perfect Cruz counter.

My pick is Dominick Cruz. I see this huge advantage on the feet. He's not going to be schooled on the ground. Cruz is not the guy to make a huge mistake because he learned from that one loss. He's finally healthy been able to have back to back training camps. Faber meanwhile hasn't looked good in a while. He's still very much the same fighter he was back in the WEC. I think this goes five rounds and it's another decision win for Cruz.

Max Holloway 15-3 MMA 11-3 UFC vs. Ricardo Lamas 16-4 MMA 7-2 UFC- Name value wise not the biggest fight but for fans that know what these two can do it the potential fight of the night. These are two top fight rated featherweight. One has had a title shot and the other wants one badly. Holloway last fought in December at UFC 194. He scored a unanimous decision win over Jeremy Stephens. It was a clear case of who was the better fighter. He's now won an incredible eight fights in a row. Lamas last fought in November TUF Latin America Finale. He dominated Diego Sanchez badly beat up in a way no other fighter ever has. It was a strong rebound after being knocked out by Chad Mendes in the fight before that.

In terms of power Max is Blessed with the advantage. He's won 6 fight via KO while Lamas only has 4. Lamas also has been KO'ed three times. Now the reach will be tied by Holloway uses more kicks. Now the ground game Lamas appears to have an edge He's got more submission 4 to 2. Also Lamas loves the smother your style. He's more likely to be looking to tie up and grapple. But Holloway can grapple so he won't be just held down.

I'm going to pick Max Holloway. He's the younger fighter but already has tons of high level experience. He's also looked so great during this recent run. Lamas is tough but I think Holloway will be get the better of him.

Dan Henderson 31-14 MMA 8-7 UFC vs. Hector Lombard 34-5-1 2NC MMA 3-3 1 NC UFC- Two of the most experienced fighters in the middleweight division do battle. Both men have won championships in other promotions but never held the UFC title. And both fighters need this win. Both have really some major downs the last few years. Henderson has not won back to back fights since 2011. Lombard is setting at 500 in the UFC and is coming off a long suspension for a failed drug test. And lets be honest one guy is 45 the other is 38 so if they are at that point where you need to win every single fight.

Henderson last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. It was his third fight with Vitor Belfort. In the second fight he had been KO'ed by a head kick just over a minute into the fight. Well third fight went a bit better. It took over two minutes for Belfort to hit the head kick and KO him. Like I said he's not won back to back fights since 2011. Lombard last fought in March at another UFC Fight Night. It was his return from a PED suspension and he faced Neil Magny. Early on he had Magny hurt and seemed like it was going to be a big stoppage win. But in the second round Magny had recoverd started using his range and hurt Lombard. In the third Magny kept control and finished Lombard with strikes.

When it comes to there striking both men are knowing for there power. When it comes to Henderson it's the big over hand right that scored most of them. Hendo has 15 career knockouts wins. Now Henderson has 3 career losses via knockouts but all three of those come since 2013. On top of that over the years he's been in some real wars and well the chin doesn't get better as a fighter gets older. Lombard 19 career knockouts. He's only been knocked out once. I'm going with Lombard better chin and Henderson game plan these days seems to be charge throw over hand repeat. And it doesn't work.

Both men have great grappling backgrounds. Henderson very successful Greco Roman wrestler won medals in the Pan Americans and the Worlds. Lombard 4^th dan blackbelt in Judo and during his Judo career won numerous major tournaments. The truth is though neither guy really uses those skills in MMA. Number say there is an edge to Lombard he has seven career submission wins and never been submitted in MMA. Henderson has two career submission wins and has four career submission losses.

My head says pick Lombard. He's younger taken less punishment it seems in his career. But than you have Henderson who remains dangerous enough. Just look at his rematch with Shogun he was getting clipped over and over again and than bang hit that homerun shot. Went in a fought Boetsch he got that shot and dropped him for the win. So if Lombard just goes for broke he could win up taking the H bomb. But I'm sticking with the head. I think Lombard wins and gets a decision win.

UFC 198 Fallout

History is never on the side of the UFC Heavyweight Champion. Unlike the other titles in the company no single dominate champion has emerged claiming the title for years and making numerous defenses. There have been champion like Couture and Velasquez who held it more than once but in ever single reign the champion has made two or less defenses before losing the title. Fabricio Werdum entered UFC 198 looking to be the the man that finally broke the streak. On paper he was set up well. Werdum has truly world class BJJ and has submitted some of MMA's all time greats. Since heading to King's MMA and train with Rafeal Cordaro he's Muay Thai has become lethal. He didn't just beat Cain Velasquez when he won the title he destroyed him.

UFC 198 could have been his crowning moment. He was main eventing the fourth stadium show in UFC history. It was in his home country of Brazil. But history is never on the side the UFC Heavyweight Champion. Across the cage from Werdum was Stipe Miocic. A fighter man had pegged a future champion. A dangerous fighter with one punch knockout power. Also a fighter who could be the best pure athlete in the division. Werdum got Miocic backing up but made huge mistake. He came charging in hands down and took a right hand to the jaw. It shows just how powerful Miocic is that while back up off balance he could generate that kind of power. Did Werdum get to caught up in the moment? Was it simply fate Miocic would be champion? Does it even matter. Werdum woke up as Miocic celebrated screaming “I'm a world champion!”

In the semi main event of the evening Jacare Souza destroyed Vitor Belfort. While Belfrot and his supporters will point to his knockout of Dan Henderson as proof he' still a contender the facts are he's been utterly destroyed in two of his last three. Against both Souza and Chris Wediman the same story played out. Belfort was taken down quickly mounted and ate a lot of ground and pound punches and elbows. Dispute a BJJ blackbelt and a long career Belfort seemed to have no idea what to do. He barely even bucked his hips to try and get free. Souza whose sole UFC loss was in a close fight where his opponent cheated both during and with PED's might finally have secured that long hunted title shot.

The rest of the card saw a great night for Brazil. Little Nog secured a KO win, Shogun Rua won a close fight over young contender Corey Anderson. Also wind for Maia, Linkier, and Santos. Plus Cyborg was there and crushed a can. Yeah call me when she fight a real threat and fight in a weight class the UFC offers otherwise I don't care.

Biggest Winners-

Stipe Miocic- It was the biggest fight the biggest night of his life. Miocic has always been seen as a fighter with great potential. But in big fight's he's been mixed with results. Strong wins over Hunt and Arlovski are counted by a knockout loss to Struve in his first main event and loss (although disputed) to Dos Santos a few years ago. We had also never seen Mocic fight someone like Werdum with lethal BJJ an ever improving Muay Thai game, and a great history in big fights. Yet Miocic never got over whelmed. He didn't allow Werdum's striking to pick him off or rush into a bad position. Even when backing up he was in control. That one big punch dropped Werdum and changed the line from “Give Me My Shot!” to “I'm a World Champion!” Plus don’t' be shocked if that KO winds up being knockout of the year for a lot sites.

Smaller Gyms- The conventional wisdom in MMA is a fighter with potential who wishes to reach the next level needs to move a city and train with a big team. Hell just look at the reactions to the losses by Rousey and Nortcutt. Many began calling for both fighters to leave there team. OSP has often been criticize for staying in Tennessee and appearing to never grow as a fighter. Yet Miocic stayed with his team in Ohio. Now for every small gym out there looking to build it's own talent and keep them Miocic is an example.

Cleveland- If you weren’t' watching UFC 198 there is a good chance you were watching ESPN's latest 30 for 30 Bleveland. The film looks at the numerous heart breaking moments sport fans in Cleveland have had to deal with. The City had dealt with pretty much everything. The city hasn’t' had a champion since Jim Brown and the Cleveland Browns won the NFL title in the pre super bowl era. Until Saturday night. Miocic broke one of the most powerful curses in sports.

Biggest Losers-

Fabricio Werdum- Since returning the UFC since the end of Strikeforce Werdum has fought as well as any fighter in the world. His wins over Travis Brown and Cain Velasquez were extremely dominate with him picking the believed better striker apart on his feet. So it seem so strange he would go charging in hands down. Going into the event there was talk of “Is Werdum the greatest heavyweight ever?” Well any talk that ended. Why he has three huge wins over Fedor, Big Nog and Velasquez he can now never say he defended the title. And worse of all a lot of it is due to Werdum making a stupid mistake. Back when he was just seen as a BJJ guy it was one thing but over the year he's shown to be very smart on his feet.

Vitor Belfort- Many of Belfort wins have the same story he attacks early with a flurry and scores a knockouts. On the flip side many of his losses play out the same way. He doesn't attack often is forced to wrestle and than just gives up and takes a beating. For a man with a blackbelt in BJJ Belfort offered no resistance on the ground. When this happened to him against Randy Couture he was young and time to rebuild. Now he is 39 years old with a long standing cloud of PED use and much tougher testing. Add into that a good group of middleweights are now in the pack all adding up to him to it be highly unlikely he will get another title shot.

What Comes Next-

It seems Alistair Overeem has the inside track to the next title shot. He's on a long winning streak and would be fresh challenger. He and Miocic could be a really exciting fight. Reem is a talented Thai Boxer with a underrated ground game. Miocic is a former golden gloves champion with great wrestling. Reem a number of year ago was considered the best heavyweight in the sport. He was supposed to challenge for the title many years ago but a bad drug test and a number of stunning losses pushed him down the rankings. But now he' makes total sense.

Jacare did suffer an injury which will keep him from taking the place of Chris Weidman at UFC 199. But there is no reason at all not to give this man the winner of that fight between Rockhold and Bisping. His lone UFC loss should ignored he might be the best submission fighter in all of MMA His striking has become lethal. Assuming Rockhold retains his title there is an added element. Back in Strikforce Rockhold beat Jacare in a very good and very close fight. For years I have wanted a rematch and the cards never fell just right until now.

Fabrico Werdum has already asked for a rematch. Sadly for him it just doesn't make any sense. It's not like he was dominating the fight and lost on a lucky punch. Its also not like he was a long dominate champion unseated after a number of defenses. I think the perfect fight for him would Ben Rothwell. Rothwell. Big Ben just saw his own long winning streak snapped. Had both men won they would have very likely been the next title fight. Rothwell has great KO power and fairly unusual style. While not thought of as a ground fighter he has actually shown great skills in grappling.

UFC 198 Picks

UFC Heavyweight Championship Fabricio Werdum (c) 20-5-1 MMA 8-2 UFC vs. Stipe Miocic 14-2 MMA 8-2 UFC- What was supposed to be UFC 196 was set to be Werdum defending his championship against the man he won it from Cain Velasquez. However Velasquez suffered an injury the UFC booked Micocic in his place. Than Werdum reviled he was suffering from a back injury and pulled out of the fight. Now he said he was willing to fight Velasquez but the opponent change was to much. Well now he's healed up and the UFC made the call to give Miocic the title shot over a rematch. Werdum last fight in June at UFC 188 when he won the title from Velasquez. It was about as one sided as any fight in UFC history. Going in the thought was “Well Werdum's best chance to win is a submission but Cain is the better wrestler and striker.” That was very wrong. Werdum badly beat up Velasquez on the feet. Finally his trained in desperation called for a takedown and it was like jumping into a shark tank. Werdum got a hold of the neck and submitted him. Miocic's last fight was back in January at UFC 195. It took him just 54 seconds to knockout Andre Arlovski a former champion on a long winning streak.

Both these guys have great striking. Werdum has really worked his striking over the year making it as strong as his world class BJJ. He's become a very diverse Muay Thai style striker using hard punches, kicks and knees. He's now got 6 career knockouts. That includes the very tough Mark Hunt a guy that doesn't get knocked out. Also in fight with guys like Roy Nelson and Velasquez he badly hurt them on the feet. He's only ever been knocked out once early on in his career against Junior Dos Santos. Miocic is more of a boxer. He's got 10 career knockouts including a TKO win over Mark Hunt. He's also got a great jab that keeps guys off him. He's only been knocked out once that was against Stefan Struve but he's come a long way since than. Miocic has a reach advantage 80 to 77. But Werdum again is more diverse. I like that diversity in striking so edge goes to Werdum but is Stipie starts to land he shut down Werdum's striking.

Both men also have backgrounds in grappling skills. Miocic was a division 1 wrestler we saw it in the Hunt fight he took him down early and often and beat him up with ground and pound. Werdum is a BJJ blackbelt and a world champion in various tournaments. The number clearly show an huge advantage in the submission game to Werdum. 10 career submission wins and he's never been submitted. He has submission wins over two of MMA's all time great Fedor and Big Nog. Miocic has one career submission win and he's never been submitted. Gotta give the edge to Werdum as well. Even if Miocic can take him down he may not want to stay down with him as Werdum is active off his back.

Couple things I should note this fight will be in Brazil so you know it will be a very pro Werdum crowd. Another X-Factor will be the teams. Werdum is a fighter out of King's MMA a small team but with a lot of high quality talent and coaches. Miocic fight out of Power MMA in his native Ohio. He's the biggest name out of it and the only other other UFC fighter is Jessica Eye. X-Factors that do do for Stipie are the fact he's younger and appears to be the better pure athlete.

The heavyweight championship is never held by any champion for long. So you can never say its a lock. Plus with the size and power any shot is potentially fight changing. So I think Stipie can win this fight. But I'm going with Werdum. He's got dangerous striking and anytime you are grappling with him just give him a small opening and you could wind up tapping out.

Ronaldo Souza 22-4-1 NC MMA 5-1 UFC vs. Vitor Belfort 25-11 MMA 14-7 UFC- Both these men feel they have an inside track to be the next challenger for the Middleweight title. Belfort is the last man to beat current champion Luke Rockhold however he's had a fairly recent title shot and lost. Souza fought Rockhold in a very close fight years ago and lost. But he's looked great since coming to the UFC. Both men are also known to finish fights. There is also that pride factor here as both men are from Brazil. Belfort last fought in November . It was the rubber match with Dan Henderson. Knocked him out in just over two minutes. Souza last fought in December at UFC 194. Currently the fight is listed as a loss to Yoel Romero. That fight had so much controversy around it. Romero did nearly knock him out. But later in the fight he was taking control and as he went for takedown Romero illegally grabbed the fence. The referee stood them up but didn’t take a point or really give Jacare the position he had earned. Than after the fight Romero tested positive for a banned substance.

All fight start standing and Vitor Belfort is among the most dangerous fighters standing in in the history of the sport. He is blessed with hand speed than you just can't train. He's always had great boxing now in recent years he's added more kicks to his game plan. Belfort has 18 career knockouts. He has been knocked out 4 times. Jacare's striking has actually come a long way. Number don't really tell the story with him as he only has 2 career knockouts and has been KO'ed twice also in the Romero fight he was nearly knocked out. Clearly there are still little holes in his game to exploit. That said Belfort enough needs to exploder early and blitz or it usually doesn't win up coming most of those KO's are very early on. I'd have to give the stand up advantage to Belfort.

Both men are blackbelts in BJJ but Jacare is a world champion in BJJ. He has won numerous tournaments. Early on in his MMA career he was so good at that he was able to rack up a great record just using his skills. In MMA he has 16 career submission wins he has never been submitted in a MMA fight. Belfort really does not use his BJJ skills in MMA. Number wise he only has three career submission wins. He's also been submitted twice. In the past we have often also had problems with strong wrestlers. Its that old saying if you can take a striker down and hold him down he can't strike. Big edge goes to Jacare.

This fight really could come down to where it takes place. If Belfort can keep it at range and land early on its his. If Jacare gets him down or forces him into the fence you feel like it's his. I really think Jacare is going to be extra motivated and extra smart in this fight. I think he takes it and gets the win. Call me crazy I think he gets a first round submission.