UFC 207 Pick

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Amanda Nunes (c) 13-4 MMA 6-1 UFC vs. Ronda Rousey 12-1 MMA 6-1 UFC- And we are finally here. After over a year of speculation, questions, will she won’t she Ronda Rousey is back. Amanda Nunes has claimed the title and will look to be the first champion besides Rousey to defend. Leading up the fight everyone is playing psychologist trying to read Ronda’s mind and her motivations. The simple truth is we won’t know until she fights. Now we all know the last time she fought it was UFC 193 in November of last year. She was matched up with Holly Holm and well she got knocked out in the second round. But I think a lot of people forget how the fight went. If you watch it you see Ronda made some mistakes she was not just beat up nonstop for entire fight. And well frankly Holm with her boxing, footwork, and kicks are a bad match up for Ronda. Nunes last fought at UFC 200 in July. She walked into the biggest event in company history (at the time) and dominated the very tough Miesha Tate. Hurt her standing took her down and than submitted her. She’s on a great run winning four in a row.

Well everyone knows Nunes is just going to knock Ronda out… Kidding aside Nunes does have a striking advantage. She has nine career knockout wins Ronda only has three. Nunes has been knocked out twice both times though a lot of it had to do with her getting tired. Rousey was knocked out in her last fight. So we also have the mental issue of how she takes getting back in the fire this time. Nunes also has more technical striking. Ronda throws big looping punches and she does have a habit of turning her head when hit. That said don’t expect this to be the Holm fight take two. Nunes is different than Holm. She uses more brawling and round house kicks as opposed to Holm who is a boxer with great front and side kicks. Still though Ronda won’t want to take to many shots standing because Nunes has that get hit once and it hurts style power.

The grappling could be very interesting. Ronda won a bronze medal in Judo at the Olympics she is a fourth degree black belt in the art. Nunes has a BJJ black belt and also has a brown in Judo. That said she never had a pure grappling level of experience that Ronda has had. Ronda has nine career submission wins and Nunes has three. Nunes is the only one to be submitted between the two. Nunes won’t be easy on the ground due to her background. But we have seen Ronda usually dominate great wrestlers and BJJ black belts in the past. I’m not sure how active Nunes is in training Judo. So if this fight goes to the ground I think it’s Ronda’s to take.

Training its a clear no contest advantage for Nunes. She is a member of American Top Team. You can’t praise that camp enough in my opinion. So many great talent trains down there. They have top level coaches. Ronda remains with Edmund Tarverdyan who might be the worse coach I have ever seen. I think I have heard with out Ronda he has a losing record in the UFC. And we have seen Travis Brown, Jake Ellenberger, Jessaym Duke, and Shayna Bazler struggle under him. When Ronda was in trouble at UFC 193 he seemed to have no idea what to do and last time out at UFC 203 when Browne was losing he was going insane and than got into with Werdum after the fight. Ronda does have other coaches but so long as she’s loyal to the head GFC I worry about her.

The biggest X-factor is where is Ronda’s head at? She was so dominate for so long and than it just stops and its violent. She loses and so many people took joy in mocking her. She even admits to being suicidal after the fight. It could be the flip side though. Ronda is a very emotional person. When she wins she jumps for joy and celebrates nonstop. Also I think people forget Ronda has lost before. She had numerous losses in Judo and came back stronger. Another X-Factor is Ronda has been out of the cage. Normally I like a more active fighter. But I think the time off might be good for Ronda. Most has said “She isn’t fighting because of Holm...” Forgetting Ronda had said before UFC 193 she was taking time off. I don’t think any fighter went harder than Ronda during that three year run.

I am picking Ronda Rousey. I think way to many people have forgotten just how good she is. Nunes is not Holly Holm and in a number of ways she plays into Ronda’s strengts more than Holm ever will. Don’t get me wrong Nunes has fighting changing power. Ronda needs to be careful. Also Nunes is not bulletproof. A recurring issue for her is if she doesn’t get a quick win she gets tired. I think Ronda will go back to being very Judo heavy for this fight and get a submission win.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Championship Dominick Cruz (c) 23-1 MMA 5-0 UFC vs. Cody Brandt 10-0 MMA 5-0 UFC- The more things change the more they stay the same. Dominick Cruz facing a young up and comer but he’s also facing an Alpha Male guy. Realistically TJ Dillishaw should be getting rematch. But Garbrandt made it a point to keep calling Cruz out he got in his face backstage. He made this an issue and made it a fight people want to see. Also Cruz wanted this fight. Cruz last fought at UFC 199 in June. It was the third fight with Urijah Faber. The Deliminator Dominated. He hurt Faber several times he took him down. Once and for all he ended the feud. Garbrandt last fought in August at UFC 202 he knocked out Takeya Mizguaki in forty eight seconds.

The numbers give a clear power edge to Gardbrandt he’s has nine career knockout wins in only ten fights. Cruz has seven in twenty four career fights. When Garbrandt hits people they go down hard and don’t get back up. Striking is much more than just power. Cruz has some of the best footwork in MMA and he’s very unusual on his feet. As Cruz often says “I don’t get hit.” Cruz again has unusual movement so it might be hard for Garbrandt to get a read him to land a strike. Add into that Cruz will have three more inches of reach. And we know Cruz is not the type to fight stupid I have to give him the edge with the stand up.

Both men do have wrestling back round. Numbers don’t really say we will get much ground fighting. Cruz only has one submission win in his career. His lone career loss was via submission. Garbrandt has never recorded a submission in his MMA career. In there careers we have seen Cruz much more willing to mix in his wrestling with striking. Garbrandt always leading to his fights want to talk about knocking guys out. So advantage to Cruz.

Training Cruz is a member of Alliance MMA. Gardbrandt is part of team Alpha Male. Both are upper level camps with tons of big fight experience. I gotta give the edge to Cruz. One Alliance has always had one head coach in Eric Delfario. Alpha Male in the last years had Ludwig, than it was Kampman and now it’s Buckholdz. Both camps have a lot experience against each other. But Cruz has beaten everyone out of that camp and he’s done it time and again.

The biggest X-factor to me is experience level. Cruz has many more fights and he has many more fight against elite high level competition. Cruz has beat Faber twice, Dillishaw, he’s the last man to beat Demetrius Johnson. Gardbrandt’s biggest win was over Mizugaki a fighter that appears to really be on the decline. He’s very untested so what happen when Gardbrandt doesn’t just land a big shot and knock the guy out. We don’t know I his power will hold up against elite fighters. The other big X-Factor is mental warfare. Cruz may not be McGregor with the million dollar lines that get replayed every where. But the guy puts on his opponents. He has no problem mocking or insulting anyone. Gardbrandt kept calling him out but he’s now getting really wound up. He was snapping during that face to face during UFC on Fox. You can’t fight stupid and Cruz gets people to fight stupid.

This is not a hard pick for me. Cruz has every advantage. So much of what led to this fight was Gradbrandt willingness to talk and the fact Cruz’s sees this as a fight he can win and earn some good money. I think Cruz will draw this out we will see Gardbrandt forced to go late. It will be a decision win for Cruz.

TJ Dillashaw 13-3 MMA 9-3 UFC vs. John Lineker 29-7 MMA 9–2 UFC- Key fight in the bantamweight division. You have in Dilliashaw a former world champion who remains a top contender. Linkeker has been on the verge of a title shot for a while and one big impressive win could be what locks it up for him. Dillishaw last fought in July at UFC 200. He was facing Raphael Assuncao a fighter who had beat him in the past but many felt it was a bad judge’s call. This time Dillashaw got the win. Another good strong performance by Dillashaw doing what he does best lots of good movement with effective striking. Lineker last fought in October. It was a main event fight against John Dodson. Both men are known for there power but some thought Dodson’s speed would be the advantage. Linker though manged to land some big shots and got a split decision win.

Striking is pure one shot power vs. movement and technique that leads to knockouts. Linker is a power puncher he looks to brawl he had that ability to change a fight after landing a single strike. He has 13 career knockouts and has never been knocked out in his MMA career. Dillashaw only has six career knockouts. Dillashaw though much more of a technical fighter. Since hooking up with Bang Ludwig he has become one of the best users of movement in the entire sport. When he is on the attack he is always cutting an angle taking himself out of the pocket of the fight. His one and only knockout loss was very early in his career. You can’t afford to let Lineker land that one shot but Dillishaw’s style is going to make it very hard to land that one shot. We saw Dillishaw dismantel Renan Barrao twice and standing up this fight could a remake of those two fights. So edge Dillishaw.

When it comes to grappling Dillishaw has the wrestling background doing it all the way through college. He also very good at mixing up his wrestling rather it be with a takedown or even getting the fight against the cage. Lineker not really much of a wrestler he is looking to brawl. Dillishaw has three career wins and has never been submitted in his career. Lineker has four career submission career but also three losses. The guy willing to grapple is the one I give the advantage to Dillishaw.

Training Dillishaw is a member of Team Elevation. A fairly new team but has grown very quickly. He’s also a former member of Team Alpha Male and some of those guys still train with him. On top of that Dillishaw regularly trains with Bang Ludwig who is his head corner man. Lineker is a member of American Top Team. Very good training camp. Overall I think ATT is the better team. But again the edge I think goes to Dillishaw because it appears he and Lugwig have a special connection and that point of perfect coach perfect student.

One big X-Factor could be the weigh in. Linker has missed weight numerous times in his UFC career to the point he was forced to move up from flyweight to bantamweight. Than last time out he misses weight again against Dodson. By all accounts the UFC is reluctant to give him a title shot because in a title fight you have to make weight and don’t get an extra pound. Now in interview Linker has said he will make weight. But we just won’t know until he gets on the scale. And if he has a tough cut a guy like Dillishaw would be a nightmare to fight. The other X-Factor to me is where is Dillishaw’s head at. He started 2016 losing the title in a very close match with Cruz. He feels he should have gotten an automatic rematch. He didn’t and saw Faber get a title shot. So he fought at UFC 200 won again thinking he should get the next shot and he’s watching Garbrandt. If he’s looking past this fight or gets to caught up in wanting a knockout to impresses he could leave himself open.

This pick can tough to make. Because the kind of power Linker has just changes the equation so quick. Dillishaw doesn’t have perfect defense he does eat shots. That said guys who chase the knockout can tire out quickly. With the edges he has in tehiccal striking and his use of wrestling I think Dillishaw can tire Lineker out. I see a tired Lineker getting knocked out by Killihsaw in the third round.

UFC on Fox Picks

Paige VanZant 7-2 MMA 4-1 UFC vs. Michelle Waterson 13-4 MMA 1-0 UFC- Fighting can a strange thing. You have that fighter that a lot of people know but there are questions about how good they really are. Or you can have that fighter not that man people know but those that know him or her will tell you how great they are. Paige VanZant is a superstar. She was getting pushed to the top right away and than she does Dancing With The Stars and gains all these new fans. On the flip side you have Michelle Waterson a former champion in Invicta but not someone a causal fan knows. Paige VanZant last fought in August at the previous UFC on Fox Card. That was a very important fight for her. She was coming off a very one sided loss in her last fight. Than she did DWTS and had all these new fans. She was matched up with Bec Rawlings. A talented fighter but a winnable fight for her. Really had she lost you know every critic would have come out saying “She should have worried about fighting over dancing… The UFC is just looking for a hot blonde.” She actually changed up her style. Most her fights VanZant like to swarm in and try to overwhelm her opponent. This fight she kept out at range more. Early on she really had some issues got clipped a few times but found her timing and distance and set Rawlings up before landing a jumping round house kick that knocked out Rawlings. Waterson last fought in July of 2015 at the TUF 21 Finals. She fought Angela Magana. Now Magana doesn’t not have a great record but shes been in a lot of fights. Waterson submitted her in the third. Since than injures have kept her out of the cage.

Neither fighter has a high number of knockouts yet. Waterson only has three knockouts with one KO loss. VanZant has two but has never been knocked out. Now Watereson has a background in Karate and Wushu which gives her some different style striking over the kickboxing VanZant does. We did see Rose Namajunas who is similar to Watereson really trouble VanZant. Last fight again we saw VanZant change her striking up. She was getting clipped early on but now she’s had more time learn. VanZant will also have a three inch reach advantage that should help in boxing exchanges. As I think the height of Rawlings played a factor last time. That said it appears to be a gap I think the edge goes to Waterson.

Numbers seem to really back up Waterson on the ground. She has eight career submissions only tapped out herself twice. PVZ only has two career submission wins with one submission loss. Both are ranked as blue belts in BJJ. One factor that might help VanZant on the ground is we have seen her give great second effort when grappling. A lot of people they try once and just give up thinking “oh well not gong to work.” She seems to always keeps trying when she goes for a takedown. We saw that especially in the Felice Herring fight where it allowed her to wind up on top or wind up getting the takedown. Still the number say I should give the edge to Waterson.

Both fighters train with elite camps. Waterson trains with Jackson Winkeljohn. Paige VanZant is a member of Alpha Male. Both camps are known for having high level training partners and great coaches. I will call this even. Waterson seems to have more female training partners but VanZant lives full time by her gym while Waterson does more of a camp where she travels to the gym but lives in another state so how much she trains with Jackson Winkeljohn is less.

Looking at the X-Factors one simply comes to down to Potential vs. Prime. Waterson is 30 and has had seventeen career fights. At this stage for the most part she is the fighter she is. We aren’t likely to see her show this new aspect of her game. VanZant is 22 only nine career fights. She is still young and getting better. She might just do something we don’t know she can do. Hell again just last fight dong more range fighting. I gotta give the edge to VanZant on this. Mainly because there is that chance Waterson and her team are ready for something and than don’t see what is really coming. The other X-Factor is size. Waterson has had a lot of success but most of it came at Antomweight 105 lbs. UFC does not offer that weight class. Vanzant will have the reach and height advantage. She has fought Strawweight 115 lbs in the past. But I think again edge goes to VanZant.

Another X-Factor will be the extra stuff that goes into doing main events. Waterson has been set for five rounds 3 times but never gone the distance while VanZant only once she lost in the final round. Edge to Waterson in that I think training for it more will help her even if she hasn’t gone it. However while this isn’t a huge event there is extra commitments for a main event. Waterson has main evented smaller shows. Is she going to be used stuff like Road to the Octagon? Extra TV appearances? VanZant has gotten very used to it since every fight she been in has been a lot of press. Final X-Factor to me is activity level. Waterson hasn’t fought in over a year she also dealt with injures. VanZant has three fights in that time. Even while doing DWTS she was still training MMA. A lot of fighters need some time to shake off the rust. Even if it just takes a round or two that could still be huge so edge VanZant.

The fight is really a question of can the ever improving VanZant improve enough to close the gaps on Waterson? While VanZant has potential advantages in some areas the real keys to me always come down to the striking and grappling. VanZant might wind up being better than Waterson some day? But for right now I am picking Waterson to get a decision win.

Urijah Faber 33-10 MMA 9-6 UFC vs. Brad Pickett 25-12 MMA 5-7 UFC- For one of MMA’s most popular fighter the end has arrived. For the final time California Love will play as Urijah Faber walks to an Octagon. He wanted one more fight and the show taking place in Sacramento made it perfect. Brad Pickett was handpicked for this fight. It’s a battle of two long term vets. Pickett has the power to ruin the party. Faber last fought at UFC 203 in September. It might has have been the worse performance of his career. He lost an extremely one sided decision Jimmie Rivera. Rivera out struck him he out wrestled him. It felt like the only things Faber landed with eye pokes and lowbrows. It easy to see why he is getting ready to retire. He’s lost two in row both and why not stopped he never really got going in either fight. Pickett was last in action at UFC 204 in October. He lost via submission to Iuri Alcantara. Just another case of a younger fighter blowing though a veteran fighter. Pickett has lost four of five.

Pickett is nicknamed One Punch and has a reputation for one shot KO’s. But both men are tied with seven career knockout wins. Although some of Faber’s come off ground and pound along with at least two doctor’s stoppages. Pickett has two career knockout losses. Faber has three. Both fighters are older and have take some real punishments putting hard miles on the body. And both has looked a little more chinny at this stage. Faber seems to be a little more technical but very predictable. Pickett like to slug it out. I will give a slight edge to Pickett.

Faber has the wrestling background he made the NCAA tournament twice while at UC Davis in college. Pickett like many European fighters from his generation had no back round in wrestling. That doesn’t mean he can’t get things done on the ground. While known for his power striking Pickett actually has ten career submission wins. But he hasn’t scored a submission since 2012. He also has five career submission losses. Faber though has nineteen career submission wins and has never submitted. Faber should be able to this to the ground. Pickett might give him a challenge once they are down there but still the edge goes to Faber.

Training camps for both men are among the best. Faber if the Alpha Male of Alpha Male. He was the founder and has so much control over who trains with it and who coaches it. In the past he’s worked with great coaches and has a solid staff now. Pickett is a member of American Top Team. Another high level team currently has several former or current world champions. It’s brought in elite coaches. Slight edge to Faber here based on the fact Alpha Male is known for having great smaller fighters around him while with ATT not clear how many upper level guys below 170 there is.

The biggest X-Factor is retirement. Faber is retiring after this fight. Often when it comes to situations like this you wonder how much is he head in THIS fight. Knowing that there is no more titles or big main events to come do you do all the work. Pickett has admitted he’s close to the end as well. But he also knows a win here would put him in a good place. So edge Pickett.

Its pretty clear Pickett was picked for this fight so Faber would not just get beat up by a younger highly ranked fighter. Or so Faber wouldn’t derail a prospect. Pickett is dangerous but as much as Faber has declined the last few years, Pickett has declined so much more. I think Faber will look to get this to the ground early and often he will wear Pickett down and submit him.

Sage Northcutt 8-1 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Mickey Gall 3-0 MMA 2-0 UFC- Its the looking for the fight championship. Northcutt was found on the first episode and Gall on the second. Both are very young and have huge upsides. They are fighting at high levels very early on. Northcutt last fought at UFC 200 he beat Enrque Marin via decision. Now he was coming his first career loss he needed to rebound in that fight. It was not an easy for him he had to keep digging and crawling to get the win. End of the day he got it. Gall last fought at UFC 203 in September. It was the fight he called for it was against CM Punk. Right away he takes him down works him over gets a submission. Gall than made the challenge for this fight.

I can’t really break this down like I would normal fights. Because there is such little actual info on either guy. Just using the eyeball test and the little info I have I will say Norhcutt has the striking advantage. He’s got a karate background so he can use some unusual strikes we don’t see often. He also appears to be have very good hand speed. Gall appears to have more of the straight kickboxer/boxer style and has two career knockouts. But again with only three fights I’m not really sure. On the ground I would say Gall. If there is an area Gall appears to specialize in its BJJ. With Northcutt we saw him not only get submitted but look a bit lost at times on the ground. Training Gall works with the Miller brother gym one with a good rep but fairly new. Northcutt’s head coach is his dad that doesn’t always work well. But in the past he’s worked with Tri-Star and recently was up with Tyroon Wooldey at Rufous Sport. That could aid him greatly so I saw draw.

X-factors well Gall its a welterweight fight. Gall appears to be the more natural welterweight as he’s taller and bigger. But so far Gall has been able to walk right into the cage and dominate with ease. In terms of pro fight’s only got about six minutes of cage time. Northcutt has more cage time and know understands what it’s like to have to deal with surviving. So that would be his edge. What happens if Gall gets tagged or he can’t find his rhythm and starts to force things. Northcutt can draw on being rocked and think “Don’t do that like I did in that fight...” So advantage Nortcutt.

Again tough fight to pick. It really could come down to the gut. Or in my case what pick can I throw in fans faces. For what ever reason people don’t like Northcutt so I am picking him.

UFC 206 Pick

Interim UFC Featherweight Max Holloway 16-3 MMA 12-2 UFC vs. Anthony Pettis 19-5 MMA 6-4 UFC- All of a sudden the featherweight division is wide open. McGregor has given up the championship after winning the title at 155. Jose Aldo has been promoted back to full champion but says he will never fight for the title again. Along with the injury to Daniel Cormeir this is now an interim title fight. Holloway last fought at UFC 199 in June. He beat Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision pretty one sided fight. Didn’t seem like Holloway was in real danger at any point he was just the better fighter than Lamas. He’s got an amazing nine fight winning streak. Pettis last fought at UFC on Fox in August he manged to beat Charles Oliveria via guillotine submission. That snapped a three fight losing streak. It was also his featherweight debut.

Both these men are known for there striking. The number are very close in terms of power. Pettis seven career knockouts and six for Holloway. Both men have never been knocked out. Pettis has the longer reach with two and a half more inches. Pettis is also the guy more known for throwing really spectacular kicks. To this day we all remember the showtime kick on Henderson. That said we have seen Pettis out struck at key times. His loss to RDA he got rocked early never recovered and in the loss to Edson Barboza it was mostly a kickboxing fight. A kickboxing fight he didn’t win. Holloway has great technique a good chin. I am actually calling this a draw in the stand up.

Pettis might be the most underrated submission fighter in MMA. We always think of his striking but he has nine career submission wins and has beat some BJJ blackbelts with them. Pettis has also never been submitted in his career. Holloway only has two career submission wins and he has one career submission loss. That said time and again Pettis has shown he can beat out wrestled. It was key in four of his career losses. He was either taken down or pushed against cage and could not strike. Now Pettis has trained with the highly respected Izzy Martinez. Also Holloway not really known for his wrestling doesn't’ appear to have a wrestling background. So I am giving the grappling edge to Pettis.

Holloway trains out of Hawaii. He is the biggest name out of that team. Now he’s had a lot of success with that team. We have also seen him grow as a fighter a great deal. Pettis is a long standing member of Roufusport. As he often says I have been with Duke Roufus I was kid. That is an upper level team hes’ got all kinds of UFC vets in there with him. Roufus was a great kickboxer and is viewed as an elite trainer. Last fight he also went to Jackson Winkeljohn. Haven’t heard about him doing that for this camp though. I still got to give the edge to Pettis in this department.

The weight cut is a X-Factor on this fight. We did see Pettis start to slow down in his featherweight debut. He’s making his second cut for this fight. Now on the one hand he’s going to used to it. On the other hand he’s still talking about going to going back to 155. And it could be no matter what those ten extra pounds will always be tough. Holloway is used to it advantage him. Other X-factor is confidence. Holloway is on the best run of his career. Pettis is coming off the worse run of his career. And in my opinion with Pettis if things don’t go well he kind of checks out. So to me advantage Holloway.

My pick is for Holloway. At this point you need to be something really special to convince anyone you can beat that guy. I think he’s able to drag this into the second and third rounds. I think Pettis will start to slow and lose confidence. I think it will be close enough it will be a split decision but Holloway take the win.

Donald Cerrone 31-7 1 NC MMA 16-4 UFC vs. Matt Brown 20-15 MMA 13-9 UFC- This is one of those fights you hear about and just go “FUCK YEAH!” You are thinking not only fight of the night maybe fight of the year. These are two guys who are so loved by fans. You be hard pressed to name a boring fight either guy has ever had. Cerrone last fought at UFC 202 in August. He was matched up with Rick Story. Story is one of those tough long term UFC fighters. Cerrone just handled him. He finished the fight with a perfect combination. He hurt Story to the point that he got him to spin away and when he came back around Cerrone timed it so he could still punch him and knock him out. Cowboy is 3-0 since moving up to welterweight. Brown last fought at UFC 201 in July. He was facing Jake Ellenberger. Going into that fight it had come out that Ellenberger had been cut and had to beg the UFC for one more fight. Brown was saying going into the fight it would be Jake’s last fight. Right away Brown take an over hand right that knocked him flat on his ass. If its anyone but Matt Brown the fight would been called off. Brown though manages to recover and start mounting offense than he eats a body kick that hurts him badly and Ellenberger wins.

Both these men are known to bang it out on the feet. Cerrone not only has been a top level MMA fighter but has boxed as a pro and fought kickboxing and Muay Thai in the past. He’s got great kicks he can crush the legs he can destroy the body, or go up high and KO you to head. His boxing is solid. Brown is more of a brawler but don’t sleep on his ability to turn it into a brawl. Number seem to back Brown power wise he has 12 career knockouts and only Ellenerberger has ever KO’ed him. We have seen rocked a few times but he usually recovers. Cerrone has seven knockouts and been knocked out twice. Brown will have boxing reach advantage but like I said Cerrone has really good kicks. I am giving the edge Cerrone. If it turns into a brawl he can hang with Brown. But his more technical style should carry the day. Brown also gets hurt a lot on body kicks and Cerrone is very accurate.

To me there is no contest in the grappling side of things. Cerrone has always been known for a great ground game. He will often hurt a guy standing and take him down. If you are on the ground with Cerrone you are SOL. The man has sixteen career submission wins. He’s only been submitted once and that was back in the WEC. Brown only has six career submission wins even scoring on in his last win over Tim Means. But he also has ten career submission losses. With those numbers how can I now say Cerrone has the advantage on the mat?

Looking at training Brown just moved out to Team Elevation in Denver. Its a new camp but has stated to attract some good guys. That said its a fairly recent change and sometimes it takes a few fights to really gel with a team. Cerrone long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. He’s always going to have upper level talent to work with. He also does a lot training out of his own ranch but you hear stories of guys going to ranch to train with him. To me edge is Cerrone’s.

One X-Factor is Cerrone was supposed to fight at UFC 205. Kelvin Gastulum missed weight badly the fight was canceled by the NYSAC. Even though he didn’t fight he went through a camp and cut weight. This really is a short notice. That said Cerrone is the king of coming in late or on short notice. There is a good chance he asks to fight UFC 207 after this. The biggest X-Factor to me when you have two long term veterans like this is which one looks more shot. At this stage that appears to Brown. A few years ago Brown went on a winning streak got to a title eliminator fight. But he’s lost four of his last five. Brown has put a lot of hard miles on his body taking a lot of damage in his career. Cerrone meanwhile looks refused at a higher weight. He’s made changes to his training where doesn’t spar and get into total gym wars. Both are edge to Cerrone. But there is one final X-Factor that favors Brown. With Matt Brown you can just never count him out. Rather it be during a fight or his career. Brown goes into this fight knowing his back is against the wall he might just put on a great performance.

That said my pick is Donald Cerrone. I think a good technical striker will be able to hurt Brown. I don’t like how easy it to hurt Brown to the body. Add into this ground game Cerrone is just way to much for Brown. I think it will take a little time but late in the second we will Brown get hurt. Cerrone will get the fight to the ground. The Cowboy will lock in a submission and pick up another win at a 170 pounds.

Tim Kennedy 18-5 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Kelvin Gastelum 12-2 MMA 7-2 UFC- It was a strange path to get this fight. Both men were set to fight at UFC 205 Kennedy against Rashad Evans and Gastelum against Donald Cerrone. Than the state of New York refused to let Evans fight due to an issue on his MRI but he says it’s them being to cautious. The fight was rebooked than Canada said Evans couldn’t fight. Gastelum who has struggled with weight during his career was going to miss badly some say as much as ten pounds. He never weighed in fight was called off. On top of that for not weighing in Gastelum was suspended by the state of New York but it’s a different kind of suspsnein than usual so as long as the Provence in Canada says he can fight he can. Dana White says Gastelum is done at welterweight they will never book him there again. Kennedy has not fought since September 2014. It was the infamous stool gate fight with Yoel Romero. He had rocked Romero badly as the second round ended. Romero did all he could to drag out the round break basically refusing to stand up. Kennedy felt he should have won a technical knockout. The fight went on and Romero recovered to knock Kennedy out. Since than he has pursed outside interest. Gastelum last fought UFC 200 he won a decision over Johnny Hendricks. Fairly one sided fight biggest name win of his career.

Neither guy really known as a knockout artiest. Kennedy has six career knockouts. In his last three fights he did show good power, he knocked out Natal, buzzed Bisping, and had Romero hurt. He’s also only been knocked out twice. Gastelum has four career knockouts. He’s never been knocked out and to his credit has been in there with some big punchers. Kennedy will have a three inch reach advantage. Although Gastelum style is very pressure heavy if he can get in I think he has a slight edge on Kennedy.

Grappling the numbers say it’s Kennedy’s edge. He has eight career submission wins he’s a BJJ blackbelt. Gastelum has four career submission wins. Nietehr man has ever been submitted. I would say Kennedy has fought the better level of submission fighters. So I am giving this to Kennedy as I think he’s a littler trickier on the ground and should be able to survive anything Gastelum tries down there.

Training Kennedy is a long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. Many call that the best gym in MMA. Gastelum trains out a gym in Yuma Arizona his home town. He’s the biggest name out of that gym. Kennedy has world class guys around him at all times. We know how good Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn are are breaking down fighters. I don’t know if Gastelum has anything close to that. Clear edge Tim Kennedy.

The biggest X-Factors are weight. Gastelum is not a middleweight fighter. He’s a welterweight that by all accounts blows up in weight between fights doesn’t watch his diet while in camp. He’s being punished by the UFC and being forced to move up to middleweight. He’s even come out and said “I’m not big enough to beat elite guys at 185.” Also you wonder if now that he has extra weight to give is he even sloppier with his weight. Kennedy is not a giant but he’s a much bigger man. Advantage Kennedy. That said the other x-factor is being active. Kelvin has fought five times since Kennedy got in the cage last. Ring rust can be a real issue. It takes some guys time to find the timing and distance and deal with all the other issues with a real fight vs. hard sparing in the gym.

Tim Kennedy should win the fight. Even with the long layoff I think his psychical size and skill should be enough to get this win. Gastelum wins at Middleweight come over Uriah Hall who often just doesn’t show up and a very shot Nate Mardquardt. Kennedy will be the step to far. Decision win for Tim Kennedy.

Cub Swanson 23-7 MMA 8-3 UFC vs. Choi Do-ho 15-1 MMA 3-0 UFC- With McGregor gone the featherweight division is shifting again. Cub Swanson has been with the UFC for a number of years. A number of times he’s gotten close to a title shot than suffered the key loss. Coo-ho has been with the UFC about two years. Has a great record and so far has finished everyone in the UFC. Swanson last fought at a UFC Fightnight in August. He got a decision win over Tatsuya Kawairi. He’s now won two a row. Doo-ho last fought in July at the TUF 24 finals he knocked out Thiago Tavares. He 3-0 in the UFC all via knockout. He has 13 wins in a row with eight knockouts in a row.

Standup seems to be a battle of technique vs. power. Swanson is know for some great boxing. He trains with Robert Garcia an elite boxing trainer and has in the past worked with boxing champion Tim Bradley. He only has eight career knockouts. Does have a very iron chin as it was only Jose Aldo to ever knockout him out and that was on a perfect flying knee right to the chin. Do-ho has twelve career knockouts and as I said he has eight of those are in a row. His only loss was a decision. Swanson does have a habit of over relying on his boxing. He often only wants to box he doesn’t threaten with elbows or knees or kicks. Do-ho appears to be a more diverse in his striking. Add into that he has the power that only needs to land once to change a fight. Advantage in stand up is Do-ho’s.

Swanson does have some creditably on the ground. He holds blackbelts in both BJJ and Judo. He has eight career submission wins. But he has not scored a submission since 2009 in the WEC. He also has five career submission losses. Choi Do-ho only has one submission win though. Again Swanson sometimes just wants to box last few fights he has started to use more of his ground skills. More submission wins more ranks on the ground and appears more likely to use his grappling the edge goes to Killer Cub.

Looking at training most of his career Swanson has trained with Greg Jackson. Now he did for one fight stay at home in Oxnard he has gone back to Jackson. He also does work with Joel Diaz an elite boxing trainer. Doo-ho trains with the Bursan Team MAD which a gym based in South Korea. Other sites list him at Gumi MMA not sure if that is an alternate name. But I gotta give the edge to Swanson. As often it feels gyms outside the US lag behind others.

First X-Factor is the level of completion. Swanson has been in the cage with some of the very best fighters in the world. His record includes names like Aldo, Edgar, Olivera, Porier. By far Doo-ho is facing the biggest fight of his career. Now he gets this chance because he’s passed every test so far. But we don’t know how good he really is. It could be Swanson takes that best shot and shakes it off because Do-hoo doesn’t hit hard enough to beat a contender. Another X-Factor is ability to grow. Swanson is 33 years old and thirty fights. Odds are he’s not going to suddenly develop a new skill or show this great new side of his game that we haven’t seen. Doo-ho is twenty five only sixteen career fights. He might just have skills we just haven’t seen or what looked bad in the past could now be a strength for him. Advantage Doo-ho.

Call me crazy but I sensing an upset. I think Doo-ho can get this win. I think Swanson might be able to drag into deeper waters but I think he will surivve and come back to KO Swanson. I say second round KO for Doo-ho.