UFC 206 Pick

Interim UFC Featherweight Max Holloway 16-3 MMA 12-2 UFC vs. Anthony Pettis 19-5 MMA 6-4 UFC- All of a sudden the featherweight division is wide open. McGregor has given up the championship after winning the title at 155. Jose Aldo has been promoted back to full champion but says he will never fight for the title again. Along with the injury to Daniel Cormeir this is now an interim title fight. Holloway last fought at UFC 199 in June. He beat Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision pretty one sided fight. Didn’t seem like Holloway was in real danger at any point he was just the better fighter than Lamas. He’s got an amazing nine fight winning streak. Pettis last fought at UFC on Fox in August he manged to beat Charles Oliveria via guillotine submission. That snapped a three fight losing streak. It was also his featherweight debut.

Both these men are known for there striking. The number are very close in terms of power. Pettis seven career knockouts and six for Holloway. Both men have never been knocked out. Pettis has the longer reach with two and a half more inches. Pettis is also the guy more known for throwing really spectacular kicks. To this day we all remember the showtime kick on Henderson. That said we have seen Pettis out struck at key times. His loss to RDA he got rocked early never recovered and in the loss to Edson Barboza it was mostly a kickboxing fight. A kickboxing fight he didn’t win. Holloway has great technique a good chin. I am actually calling this a draw in the stand up.

Pettis might be the most underrated submission fighter in MMA. We always think of his striking but he has nine career submission wins and has beat some BJJ blackbelts with them. Pettis has also never been submitted in his career. Holloway only has two career submission wins and he has one career submission loss. That said time and again Pettis has shown he can beat out wrestled. It was key in four of his career losses. He was either taken down or pushed against cage and could not strike. Now Pettis has trained with the highly respected Izzy Martinez. Also Holloway not really known for his wrestling doesn't’ appear to have a wrestling background. So I am giving the grappling edge to Pettis.

Holloway trains out of Hawaii. He is the biggest name out of that team. Now he’s had a lot of success with that team. We have also seen him grow as a fighter a great deal. Pettis is a long standing member of Roufusport. As he often says I have been with Duke Roufus I was kid. That is an upper level team hes’ got all kinds of UFC vets in there with him. Roufus was a great kickboxer and is viewed as an elite trainer. Last fight he also went to Jackson Winkeljohn. Haven’t heard about him doing that for this camp though. I still got to give the edge to Pettis in this department.

The weight cut is a X-Factor on this fight. We did see Pettis start to slow down in his featherweight debut. He’s making his second cut for this fight. Now on the one hand he’s going to used to it. On the other hand he’s still talking about going to going back to 155. And it could be no matter what those ten extra pounds will always be tough. Holloway is used to it advantage him. Other X-factor is confidence. Holloway is on the best run of his career. Pettis is coming off the worse run of his career. And in my opinion with Pettis if things don’t go well he kind of checks out. So to me advantage Holloway.

My pick is for Holloway. At this point you need to be something really special to convince anyone you can beat that guy. I think he’s able to drag this into the second and third rounds. I think Pettis will start to slow and lose confidence. I think it will be close enough it will be a split decision but Holloway take the win.

Donald Cerrone 31-7 1 NC MMA 16-4 UFC vs. Matt Brown 20-15 MMA 13-9 UFC- This is one of those fights you hear about and just go “FUCK YEAH!” You are thinking not only fight of the night maybe fight of the year. These are two guys who are so loved by fans. You be hard pressed to name a boring fight either guy has ever had. Cerrone last fought at UFC 202 in August. He was matched up with Rick Story. Story is one of those tough long term UFC fighters. Cerrone just handled him. He finished the fight with a perfect combination. He hurt Story to the point that he got him to spin away and when he came back around Cerrone timed it so he could still punch him and knock him out. Cowboy is 3-0 since moving up to welterweight. Brown last fought at UFC 201 in July. He was facing Jake Ellenberger. Going into that fight it had come out that Ellenberger had been cut and had to beg the UFC for one more fight. Brown was saying going into the fight it would be Jake’s last fight. Right away Brown take an over hand right that knocked him flat on his ass. If its anyone but Matt Brown the fight would been called off. Brown though manages to recover and start mounting offense than he eats a body kick that hurts him badly and Ellenberger wins.

Both these men are known to bang it out on the feet. Cerrone not only has been a top level MMA fighter but has boxed as a pro and fought kickboxing and Muay Thai in the past. He’s got great kicks he can crush the legs he can destroy the body, or go up high and KO you to head. His boxing is solid. Brown is more of a brawler but don’t sleep on his ability to turn it into a brawl. Number seem to back Brown power wise he has 12 career knockouts and only Ellenerberger has ever KO’ed him. We have seen rocked a few times but he usually recovers. Cerrone has seven knockouts and been knocked out twice. Brown will have boxing reach advantage but like I said Cerrone has really good kicks. I am giving the edge Cerrone. If it turns into a brawl he can hang with Brown. But his more technical style should carry the day. Brown also gets hurt a lot on body kicks and Cerrone is very accurate.

To me there is no contest in the grappling side of things. Cerrone has always been known for a great ground game. He will often hurt a guy standing and take him down. If you are on the ground with Cerrone you are SOL. The man has sixteen career submission wins. He’s only been submitted once and that was back in the WEC. Brown only has six career submission wins even scoring on in his last win over Tim Means. But he also has ten career submission losses. With those numbers how can I now say Cerrone has the advantage on the mat?

Looking at training Brown just moved out to Team Elevation in Denver. Its a new camp but has stated to attract some good guys. That said its a fairly recent change and sometimes it takes a few fights to really gel with a team. Cerrone long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. He’s always going to have upper level talent to work with. He also does a lot training out of his own ranch but you hear stories of guys going to ranch to train with him. To me edge is Cerrone’s.

One X-Factor is Cerrone was supposed to fight at UFC 205. Kelvin Gastulum missed weight badly the fight was canceled by the NYSAC. Even though he didn’t fight he went through a camp and cut weight. This really is a short notice. That said Cerrone is the king of coming in late or on short notice. There is a good chance he asks to fight UFC 207 after this. The biggest X-Factor to me when you have two long term veterans like this is which one looks more shot. At this stage that appears to Brown. A few years ago Brown went on a winning streak got to a title eliminator fight. But he’s lost four of his last five. Brown has put a lot of hard miles on his body taking a lot of damage in his career. Cerrone meanwhile looks refused at a higher weight. He’s made changes to his training where doesn’t spar and get into total gym wars. Both are edge to Cerrone. But there is one final X-Factor that favors Brown. With Matt Brown you can just never count him out. Rather it be during a fight or his career. Brown goes into this fight knowing his back is against the wall he might just put on a great performance.

That said my pick is Donald Cerrone. I think a good technical striker will be able to hurt Brown. I don’t like how easy it to hurt Brown to the body. Add into this ground game Cerrone is just way to much for Brown. I think it will take a little time but late in the second we will Brown get hurt. Cerrone will get the fight to the ground. The Cowboy will lock in a submission and pick up another win at a 170 pounds.

Tim Kennedy 18-5 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Kelvin Gastelum 12-2 MMA 7-2 UFC- It was a strange path to get this fight. Both men were set to fight at UFC 205 Kennedy against Rashad Evans and Gastelum against Donald Cerrone. Than the state of New York refused to let Evans fight due to an issue on his MRI but he says it’s them being to cautious. The fight was rebooked than Canada said Evans couldn’t fight. Gastelum who has struggled with weight during his career was going to miss badly some say as much as ten pounds. He never weighed in fight was called off. On top of that for not weighing in Gastelum was suspended by the state of New York but it’s a different kind of suspsnein than usual so as long as the Provence in Canada says he can fight he can. Dana White says Gastelum is done at welterweight they will never book him there again. Kennedy has not fought since September 2014. It was the infamous stool gate fight with Yoel Romero. He had rocked Romero badly as the second round ended. Romero did all he could to drag out the round break basically refusing to stand up. Kennedy felt he should have won a technical knockout. The fight went on and Romero recovered to knock Kennedy out. Since than he has pursed outside interest. Gastelum last fought UFC 200 he won a decision over Johnny Hendricks. Fairly one sided fight biggest name win of his career.

Neither guy really known as a knockout artiest. Kennedy has six career knockouts. In his last three fights he did show good power, he knocked out Natal, buzzed Bisping, and had Romero hurt. He’s also only been knocked out twice. Gastelum has four career knockouts. He’s never been knocked out and to his credit has been in there with some big punchers. Kennedy will have a three inch reach advantage. Although Gastelum style is very pressure heavy if he can get in I think he has a slight edge on Kennedy.

Grappling the numbers say it’s Kennedy’s edge. He has eight career submission wins he’s a BJJ blackbelt. Gastelum has four career submission wins. Nietehr man has ever been submitted. I would say Kennedy has fought the better level of submission fighters. So I am giving this to Kennedy as I think he’s a littler trickier on the ground and should be able to survive anything Gastelum tries down there.

Training Kennedy is a long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. Many call that the best gym in MMA. Gastelum trains out a gym in Yuma Arizona his home town. He’s the biggest name out of that gym. Kennedy has world class guys around him at all times. We know how good Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn are are breaking down fighters. I don’t know if Gastelum has anything close to that. Clear edge Tim Kennedy.

The biggest X-Factors are weight. Gastelum is not a middleweight fighter. He’s a welterweight that by all accounts blows up in weight between fights doesn’t watch his diet while in camp. He’s being punished by the UFC and being forced to move up to middleweight. He’s even come out and said “I’m not big enough to beat elite guys at 185.” Also you wonder if now that he has extra weight to give is he even sloppier with his weight. Kennedy is not a giant but he’s a much bigger man. Advantage Kennedy. That said the other x-factor is being active. Kelvin has fought five times since Kennedy got in the cage last. Ring rust can be a real issue. It takes some guys time to find the timing and distance and deal with all the other issues with a real fight vs. hard sparing in the gym.

Tim Kennedy should win the fight. Even with the long layoff I think his psychical size and skill should be enough to get this win. Gastelum wins at Middleweight come over Uriah Hall who often just doesn’t show up and a very shot Nate Mardquardt. Kennedy will be the step to far. Decision win for Tim Kennedy.

Cub Swanson 23-7 MMA 8-3 UFC vs. Choi Do-ho 15-1 MMA 3-0 UFC- With McGregor gone the featherweight division is shifting again. Cub Swanson has been with the UFC for a number of years. A number of times he’s gotten close to a title shot than suffered the key loss. Coo-ho has been with the UFC about two years. Has a great record and so far has finished everyone in the UFC. Swanson last fought at a UFC Fightnight in August. He got a decision win over Tatsuya Kawairi. He’s now won two a row. Doo-ho last fought in July at the TUF 24 finals he knocked out Thiago Tavares. He 3-0 in the UFC all via knockout. He has 13 wins in a row with eight knockouts in a row.

Standup seems to be a battle of technique vs. power. Swanson is know for some great boxing. He trains with Robert Garcia an elite boxing trainer and has in the past worked with boxing champion Tim Bradley. He only has eight career knockouts. Does have a very iron chin as it was only Jose Aldo to ever knockout him out and that was on a perfect flying knee right to the chin. Do-ho has twelve career knockouts and as I said he has eight of those are in a row. His only loss was a decision. Swanson does have a habit of over relying on his boxing. He often only wants to box he doesn’t threaten with elbows or knees or kicks. Do-ho appears to be a more diverse in his striking. Add into that he has the power that only needs to land once to change a fight. Advantage in stand up is Do-ho’s.

Swanson does have some creditably on the ground. He holds blackbelts in both BJJ and Judo. He has eight career submission wins. But he has not scored a submission since 2009 in the WEC. He also has five career submission losses. Choi Do-ho only has one submission win though. Again Swanson sometimes just wants to box last few fights he has started to use more of his ground skills. More submission wins more ranks on the ground and appears more likely to use his grappling the edge goes to Killer Cub.

Looking at training most of his career Swanson has trained with Greg Jackson. Now he did for one fight stay at home in Oxnard he has gone back to Jackson. He also does work with Joel Diaz an elite boxing trainer. Doo-ho trains with the Bursan Team MAD which a gym based in South Korea. Other sites list him at Gumi MMA not sure if that is an alternate name. But I gotta give the edge to Swanson. As often it feels gyms outside the US lag behind others.

First X-Factor is the level of completion. Swanson has been in the cage with some of the very best fighters in the world. His record includes names like Aldo, Edgar, Olivera, Porier. By far Doo-ho is facing the biggest fight of his career. Now he gets this chance because he’s passed every test so far. But we don’t know how good he really is. It could be Swanson takes that best shot and shakes it off because Do-hoo doesn’t hit hard enough to beat a contender. Another X-Factor is ability to grow. Swanson is 33 years old and thirty fights. Odds are he’s not going to suddenly develop a new skill or show this great new side of his game that we haven’t seen. Doo-ho is twenty five only sixteen career fights. He might just have skills we just haven’t seen or what looked bad in the past could now be a strength for him. Advantage Doo-ho.

Call me crazy but I sensing an upset. I think Doo-ho can get this win. I think Swanson might be able to drag into deeper waters but I think he will surivve and come back to KO Swanson. I say second round KO for Doo-ho.