Paige VanZant 7-2
MMA 4-1 UFC vs. Michelle Waterson 13-4 MMA 1-0 UFC- Fighting
can a strange thing. You have that fighter that a lot of people know
but there are questions about how good they really are. Or you can
have that fighter not that man people know but those that know him or
her will tell you how great they are. Paige VanZant is a superstar.
She was getting pushed to the top right away and than she does
Dancing With The Stars and gains all these new fans. On the flip side
you have Michelle Waterson a former champion in Invicta but not
someone a causal
fan knows. Paige VanZant
last fought in August at the previous UFC on Fox Card. That
was a very important fight for her. She
was coming off a very one sided loss in her last fight. Than she did
DWTS and had all these new fans. She was matched up with Bec
Rawlings. A talented fighter but a winnable fight for her. Really had
she lost you know every critic would have come out saying “She
should have worried about fighting over dancing… The UFC is just
looking for a hot blonde.” She actually changed up her style. Most
her fights VanZant like to swarm in and try to overwhelm her
opponent. This fight she
kept out at range more. Early on she really had some issues got
clipped a few times but found her timing and distance and set
Rawlings up before landing a jumping round house kick that knocked
out Rawlings. Waterson last
fought in July of 2015 at
the TUF 21 Finals. She fought Angela Magana. Now Magana doesn’t not
have a great record but shes been in a lot of fights. Waterson
submitted her in the third. Since than injures have kept her out of
the cage.
Neither
fighter has a high number of knockouts yet. Waterson only has three
knockouts with one KO loss. VanZant has two but has never been
knocked out. Now Watereson
has a background in Karate and Wushu which gives her some different
style striking over the kickboxing VanZant does. We
did see Rose Namajunas who is similar to Watereson really trouble
VanZant. Last fight again we saw VanZant change her striking up. She
was getting clipped early on but now she’s had more time learn.
VanZant will also have a
three inch reach advantage that should help in boxing exchanges. As
I think the height of Rawlings played a factor last time. That
said it appears to be a gap I think the edge goes to Waterson.
Numbers
seem to really back up Waterson on the ground. She has eight career
submissions only tapped out herself twice. PVZ only has two career
submission wins with one submission loss. Both
are ranked as blue belts in BJJ. One factor that might help VanZant
on the ground is we have seen her give great second effort when
grappling. A lot of people they try once and just give up thinking
“oh well not gong to work.” She seems to always keeps trying when
she goes for a takedown. We saw that especially in the Felice Herring
fight where it allowed her to wind up on top or wind up getting the
takedown. Still the number
say I should give the edge to Waterson.
Both
fighters train with elite camps. Waterson trains with Jackson
Winkeljohn. Paige VanZant is a member of Alpha Male. Both
camps are known for having high level training partners and great
coaches. I will call this
even. Waterson seems to have more female training partners but
VanZant lives full time by her gym while Waterson does more of a camp
where she travels to the gym but
lives in another state so how much she trains with Jackson Winkeljohn
is less.
Looking
at the X-Factors one simply comes to down to Potential vs. Prime.
Waterson is 30 and has had seventeen career fights. At this stage for
the most part she is the fighter she is. We aren’t likely to see
her show this new aspect of her game. VanZant is 22 only nine career
fights. She is still young
and getting better. She might just do something we don’t know she
can do. Hell again just last fight dong more range fighting. I gotta
give the edge to VanZant on this. Mainly because there is that chance
Waterson and her team are ready for something and than don’t see
what is really coming. The other X-Factor is size. Waterson has had a
lot of success but most of it came at Antomweight 105 lbs. UFC does
not offer that weight class. Vanzant will have the reach and height
advantage. She has fought Strawweight 115 lbs in the past. But I
think again edge goes to VanZant.
Another
X-Factor will be the extra stuff that goes into doing main events.
Waterson has been set for five rounds 3 times but never gone the
distance while VanZant only once she lost in the final round. Edge
to Waterson in that I think training for it more will help her even
if she hasn’t gone it. However while this isn’t a huge event
there is extra commitments for a main event. Waterson has main
evented smaller shows. Is she going to be used stuff like Road to the
Octagon? Extra TV appearances? VanZant has gotten very used to it
since every fight she been in has been a lot of press. Final
X-Factor to me is activity level. Waterson hasn’t fought in over a
year she also dealt with injures. VanZant has three fights in that
time. Even while doing DWTS she was still training MMA. A lot of
fighters need some time
to shake off the rust. Even if it just takes a round or two that
could still be huge so edge VanZant.
The
fight is really a question of can the ever improving VanZant improve
enough to close the gaps on Waterson? While VanZant has potential
advantages in some areas the real keys to me always come down to the
striking and grappling. VanZant might wind up being better than
Waterson some day? But for right now I am picking Waterson to get a
decision win.
Urijah Faber
33-10 MMA 9-6 UFC vs. Brad Pickett 25-12 MMA 5-7 UFC- For
one of MMA’s most popular fighter the end has arrived. For the
final time California Love will play as Urijah Faber walks to an
Octagon. He wanted one more
fight and the show taking place in Sacramento made it perfect. Brad
Pickett was handpicked for this fight. It’s a battle of two long
term vets. Pickett has the power to ruin the party. Faber last fought
at UFC 203 in September. It might has have been the worse performance
of his career. He lost an extremely one sided decision Jimmie Rivera.
Rivera out struck him he out
wrestled him. It felt like the only things Faber landed with eye
pokes and lowbrows. It easy
to see why he is getting ready to retire. He’s lost two in row both
and why not stopped he never really got going in either fight.
Pickett was last in action at UFC 204 in October. He lost via
submission to Iuri Alcantara. Just another case of a younger fighter
blowing though a veteran fighter. Pickett has lost four of five.
Pickett
is nicknamed One Punch and has a reputation for one shot KO’s. But
both men are tied with seven career knockout wins. Although some of
Faber’s come off ground and pound along with at least two doctor’s
stoppages. Pickett has two
career knockout losses. Faber has three. Both
fighters are older and have take some real punishments putting hard
miles on the body. And both
has looked a little more chinny at this stage. Faber seems to be a
little more technical but very predictable. Pickett like to slug it
out. I will give a slight edge to Pickett.
Faber
has the wrestling background he made the NCAA tournament twice while
at UC Davis in college. Pickett
like many European fighters from his generation had no back round in
wrestling. That doesn’t
mean he can’t get things done on the ground. While known for his
power striking Pickett actually has ten career submission wins. But
he hasn’t scored a submission since 2012. He also has five career
submission losses. Faber though has nineteen career submission wins
and has never submitted. Faber should be able to this to the ground.
Pickett might give him a challenge once they are down there but still
the edge goes to Faber.
Training
camps for both men are among the best. Faber if the Alpha Male of
Alpha Male. He was the founder and has so much control over who
trains with it and who coaches it. In the past he’s worked with
great coaches and has a solid staff now. Pickett is a member of
American Top Team. Another high level team currently has several
former or current world champions. It’s brought in elite coaches.
Slight edge to Faber here based on the fact Alpha Male is known for
having great smaller fighters around him while with ATT not clear how
many upper level guys below 170 there is.
The biggest X-Factor is retirement. Faber is retiring after this
fight. Often when it comes to situations like this you wonder how
much is he head in THIS fight. Knowing that there is no more titles
or big main events to come do you do all the work. Pickett has
admitted he’s close to the end as well. But he also knows a win
here would put him in a good place. So edge Pickett.
Its pretty clear Pickett was picked for this fight so Faber would not
just get beat up by a younger highly ranked fighter. Or so Faber
wouldn’t derail a prospect. Pickett is dangerous but as much as
Faber has declined the last few years, Pickett has declined so much
more. I think Faber will look to get this to the ground early and
often he will wear Pickett down and submit him.
Sage Northcutt
8-1 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Mickey Gall 3-0 MMA 2-0 UFC- Its
the looking for the fight championship. Northcutt was found on the
first episode and Gall on the second. Both
are very young and have huge upsides. They are fighting at high
levels very early on. Northcutt last fought at UFC 200 he beat
Enrque Marin via decision. Now he was coming his first career loss he
needed to rebound in that fight. It was not an easy for him he had to
keep digging and crawling to get the win. End of the day he got it.
Gall last fought at UFC 203 in September. It
was the fight he called for it was against CM Punk. Right away he
takes him down works him over gets a submission. Gall than made the
challenge for this fight.
I
can’t really break this
down like I would normal fights. Because there is such little actual
info on either guy. Just using the eyeball test and the little info I
have I will say Norhcutt has the striking advantage. He’s got a
karate background so he can use some unusual strikes we don’t see
often. He also appears to be have very good hand speed. Gall appears
to have more of the straight kickboxer/boxer style and has two career
knockouts. But again with only three fights I’m not really sure. On
the ground I would say Gall. If there is an area Gall appears to
specialize in its BJJ. With Northcutt we saw him not only get
submitted but look a bit lost at times on the ground. Training
Gall works with the Miller brother gym one with a good rep but fairly
new. Northcutt’s head coach is his dad that doesn’t always work
well. But in the past he’s worked with Tri-Star and recently was up
with Tyroon Wooldey at Rufous Sport. That could aid him greatly so I
saw draw.
X-factors
well Gall its a welterweight fight. Gall appears to be the more
natural welterweight as he’s
taller and bigger. But so far Gall has been able to walk right into
the cage and dominate with ease. In terms of pro fight’s only got
about six minutes of cage time. Northcutt has more cage time and know
understands what it’s like to have to deal with surviving. So that
would be his edge. What happens if Gall gets tagged or he can’t
find his rhythm and starts to force things. Northcutt can draw on
being rocked and think “Don’t do that like I did in that
fight...” So advantage Nortcutt.
Again
tough fight to pick. It really could come down to the gut. Or in my
case what pick can I throw in fans faces. For what ever reason people
don’t like Northcutt so I am picking him.
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