Wednesday, December 14, 2016

UFC on Fox Picks

Paige VanZant 7-2 MMA 4-1 UFC vs. Michelle Waterson 13-4 MMA 1-0 UFC- Fighting can a strange thing. You have that fighter that a lot of people know but there are questions about how good they really are. Or you can have that fighter not that man people know but those that know him or her will tell you how great they are. Paige VanZant is a superstar. She was getting pushed to the top right away and than she does Dancing With The Stars and gains all these new fans. On the flip side you have Michelle Waterson a former champion in Invicta but not someone a causal fan knows. Paige VanZant last fought in August at the previous UFC on Fox Card. That was a very important fight for her. She was coming off a very one sided loss in her last fight. Than she did DWTS and had all these new fans. She was matched up with Bec Rawlings. A talented fighter but a winnable fight for her. Really had she lost you know every critic would have come out saying “She should have worried about fighting over dancing… The UFC is just looking for a hot blonde.” She actually changed up her style. Most her fights VanZant like to swarm in and try to overwhelm her opponent. This fight she kept out at range more. Early on she really had some issues got clipped a few times but found her timing and distance and set Rawlings up before landing a jumping round house kick that knocked out Rawlings. Waterson last fought in July of 2015 at the TUF 21 Finals. She fought Angela Magana. Now Magana doesn’t not have a great record but shes been in a lot of fights. Waterson submitted her in the third. Since than injures have kept her out of the cage.

Neither fighter has a high number of knockouts yet. Waterson only has three knockouts with one KO loss. VanZant has two but has never been knocked out. Now Watereson has a background in Karate and Wushu which gives her some different style striking over the kickboxing VanZant does. We did see Rose Namajunas who is similar to Watereson really trouble VanZant. Last fight again we saw VanZant change her striking up. She was getting clipped early on but now she’s had more time learn. VanZant will also have a three inch reach advantage that should help in boxing exchanges. As I think the height of Rawlings played a factor last time. That said it appears to be a gap I think the edge goes to Waterson.

Numbers seem to really back up Waterson on the ground. She has eight career submissions only tapped out herself twice. PVZ only has two career submission wins with one submission loss. Both are ranked as blue belts in BJJ. One factor that might help VanZant on the ground is we have seen her give great second effort when grappling. A lot of people they try once and just give up thinking “oh well not gong to work.” She seems to always keeps trying when she goes for a takedown. We saw that especially in the Felice Herring fight where it allowed her to wind up on top or wind up getting the takedown. Still the number say I should give the edge to Waterson.

Both fighters train with elite camps. Waterson trains with Jackson Winkeljohn. Paige VanZant is a member of Alpha Male. Both camps are known for having high level training partners and great coaches. I will call this even. Waterson seems to have more female training partners but VanZant lives full time by her gym while Waterson does more of a camp where she travels to the gym but lives in another state so how much she trains with Jackson Winkeljohn is less.

Looking at the X-Factors one simply comes to down to Potential vs. Prime. Waterson is 30 and has had seventeen career fights. At this stage for the most part she is the fighter she is. We aren’t likely to see her show this new aspect of her game. VanZant is 22 only nine career fights. She is still young and getting better. She might just do something we don’t know she can do. Hell again just last fight dong more range fighting. I gotta give the edge to VanZant on this. Mainly because there is that chance Waterson and her team are ready for something and than don’t see what is really coming. The other X-Factor is size. Waterson has had a lot of success but most of it came at Antomweight 105 lbs. UFC does not offer that weight class. Vanzant will have the reach and height advantage. She has fought Strawweight 115 lbs in the past. But I think again edge goes to VanZant.

Another X-Factor will be the extra stuff that goes into doing main events. Waterson has been set for five rounds 3 times but never gone the distance while VanZant only once she lost in the final round. Edge to Waterson in that I think training for it more will help her even if she hasn’t gone it. However while this isn’t a huge event there is extra commitments for a main event. Waterson has main evented smaller shows. Is she going to be used stuff like Road to the Octagon? Extra TV appearances? VanZant has gotten very used to it since every fight she been in has been a lot of press. Final X-Factor to me is activity level. Waterson hasn’t fought in over a year she also dealt with injures. VanZant has three fights in that time. Even while doing DWTS she was still training MMA. A lot of fighters need some time to shake off the rust. Even if it just takes a round or two that could still be huge so edge VanZant.

The fight is really a question of can the ever improving VanZant improve enough to close the gaps on Waterson? While VanZant has potential advantages in some areas the real keys to me always come down to the striking and grappling. VanZant might wind up being better than Waterson some day? But for right now I am picking Waterson to get a decision win.

Urijah Faber 33-10 MMA 9-6 UFC vs. Brad Pickett 25-12 MMA 5-7 UFC- For one of MMA’s most popular fighter the end has arrived. For the final time California Love will play as Urijah Faber walks to an Octagon. He wanted one more fight and the show taking place in Sacramento made it perfect. Brad Pickett was handpicked for this fight. It’s a battle of two long term vets. Pickett has the power to ruin the party. Faber last fought at UFC 203 in September. It might has have been the worse performance of his career. He lost an extremely one sided decision Jimmie Rivera. Rivera out struck him he out wrestled him. It felt like the only things Faber landed with eye pokes and lowbrows. It easy to see why he is getting ready to retire. He’s lost two in row both and why not stopped he never really got going in either fight. Pickett was last in action at UFC 204 in October. He lost via submission to Iuri Alcantara. Just another case of a younger fighter blowing though a veteran fighter. Pickett has lost four of five.

Pickett is nicknamed One Punch and has a reputation for one shot KO’s. But both men are tied with seven career knockout wins. Although some of Faber’s come off ground and pound along with at least two doctor’s stoppages. Pickett has two career knockout losses. Faber has three. Both fighters are older and have take some real punishments putting hard miles on the body. And both has looked a little more chinny at this stage. Faber seems to be a little more technical but very predictable. Pickett like to slug it out. I will give a slight edge to Pickett.

Faber has the wrestling background he made the NCAA tournament twice while at UC Davis in college. Pickett like many European fighters from his generation had no back round in wrestling. That doesn’t mean he can’t get things done on the ground. While known for his power striking Pickett actually has ten career submission wins. But he hasn’t scored a submission since 2012. He also has five career submission losses. Faber though has nineteen career submission wins and has never submitted. Faber should be able to this to the ground. Pickett might give him a challenge once they are down there but still the edge goes to Faber.

Training camps for both men are among the best. Faber if the Alpha Male of Alpha Male. He was the founder and has so much control over who trains with it and who coaches it. In the past he’s worked with great coaches and has a solid staff now. Pickett is a member of American Top Team. Another high level team currently has several former or current world champions. It’s brought in elite coaches. Slight edge to Faber here based on the fact Alpha Male is known for having great smaller fighters around him while with ATT not clear how many upper level guys below 170 there is.

The biggest X-Factor is retirement. Faber is retiring after this fight. Often when it comes to situations like this you wonder how much is he head in THIS fight. Knowing that there is no more titles or big main events to come do you do all the work. Pickett has admitted he’s close to the end as well. But he also knows a win here would put him in a good place. So edge Pickett.

Its pretty clear Pickett was picked for this fight so Faber would not just get beat up by a younger highly ranked fighter. Or so Faber wouldn’t derail a prospect. Pickett is dangerous but as much as Faber has declined the last few years, Pickett has declined so much more. I think Faber will look to get this to the ground early and often he will wear Pickett down and submit him.

Sage Northcutt 8-1 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Mickey Gall 3-0 MMA 2-0 UFC- Its the looking for the fight championship. Northcutt was found on the first episode and Gall on the second. Both are very young and have huge upsides. They are fighting at high levels very early on. Northcutt last fought at UFC 200 he beat Enrque Marin via decision. Now he was coming his first career loss he needed to rebound in that fight. It was not an easy for him he had to keep digging and crawling to get the win. End of the day he got it. Gall last fought at UFC 203 in September. It was the fight he called for it was against CM Punk. Right away he takes him down works him over gets a submission. Gall than made the challenge for this fight.

I can’t really break this down like I would normal fights. Because there is such little actual info on either guy. Just using the eyeball test and the little info I have I will say Norhcutt has the striking advantage. He’s got a karate background so he can use some unusual strikes we don’t see often. He also appears to be have very good hand speed. Gall appears to have more of the straight kickboxer/boxer style and has two career knockouts. But again with only three fights I’m not really sure. On the ground I would say Gall. If there is an area Gall appears to specialize in its BJJ. With Northcutt we saw him not only get submitted but look a bit lost at times on the ground. Training Gall works with the Miller brother gym one with a good rep but fairly new. Northcutt’s head coach is his dad that doesn’t always work well. But in the past he’s worked with Tri-Star and recently was up with Tyroon Wooldey at Rufous Sport. That could aid him greatly so I saw draw.

X-factors well Gall its a welterweight fight. Gall appears to be the more natural welterweight as he’s taller and bigger. But so far Gall has been able to walk right into the cage and dominate with ease. In terms of pro fight’s only got about six minutes of cage time. Northcutt has more cage time and know understands what it’s like to have to deal with surviving. So that would be his edge. What happens if Gall gets tagged or he can’t find his rhythm and starts to force things. Northcutt can draw on being rocked and think “Don’t do that like I did in that fight...” So advantage Nortcutt.

Again tough fight to pick. It really could come down to the gut. Or in my case what pick can I throw in fans faces. For what ever reason people don’t like Northcutt so I am picking him.

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