UFC 207 Pick

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Amanda Nunes (c) 13-4 MMA 6-1 UFC vs. Ronda Rousey 12-1 MMA 6-1 UFC- And we are finally here. After over a year of speculation, questions, will she won’t she Ronda Rousey is back. Amanda Nunes has claimed the title and will look to be the first champion besides Rousey to defend. Leading up the fight everyone is playing psychologist trying to read Ronda’s mind and her motivations. The simple truth is we won’t know until she fights. Now we all know the last time she fought it was UFC 193 in November of last year. She was matched up with Holly Holm and well she got knocked out in the second round. But I think a lot of people forget how the fight went. If you watch it you see Ronda made some mistakes she was not just beat up nonstop for entire fight. And well frankly Holm with her boxing, footwork, and kicks are a bad match up for Ronda. Nunes last fought at UFC 200 in July. She walked into the biggest event in company history (at the time) and dominated the very tough Miesha Tate. Hurt her standing took her down and than submitted her. She’s on a great run winning four in a row.

Well everyone knows Nunes is just going to knock Ronda out… Kidding aside Nunes does have a striking advantage. She has nine career knockout wins Ronda only has three. Nunes has been knocked out twice both times though a lot of it had to do with her getting tired. Rousey was knocked out in her last fight. So we also have the mental issue of how she takes getting back in the fire this time. Nunes also has more technical striking. Ronda throws big looping punches and she does have a habit of turning her head when hit. That said don’t expect this to be the Holm fight take two. Nunes is different than Holm. She uses more brawling and round house kicks as opposed to Holm who is a boxer with great front and side kicks. Still though Ronda won’t want to take to many shots standing because Nunes has that get hit once and it hurts style power.

The grappling could be very interesting. Ronda won a bronze medal in Judo at the Olympics she is a fourth degree black belt in the art. Nunes has a BJJ black belt and also has a brown in Judo. That said she never had a pure grappling level of experience that Ronda has had. Ronda has nine career submission wins and Nunes has three. Nunes is the only one to be submitted between the two. Nunes won’t be easy on the ground due to her background. But we have seen Ronda usually dominate great wrestlers and BJJ black belts in the past. I’m not sure how active Nunes is in training Judo. So if this fight goes to the ground I think it’s Ronda’s to take.

Training its a clear no contest advantage for Nunes. She is a member of American Top Team. You can’t praise that camp enough in my opinion. So many great talent trains down there. They have top level coaches. Ronda remains with Edmund Tarverdyan who might be the worse coach I have ever seen. I think I have heard with out Ronda he has a losing record in the UFC. And we have seen Travis Brown, Jake Ellenberger, Jessaym Duke, and Shayna Bazler struggle under him. When Ronda was in trouble at UFC 193 he seemed to have no idea what to do and last time out at UFC 203 when Browne was losing he was going insane and than got into with Werdum after the fight. Ronda does have other coaches but so long as she’s loyal to the head GFC I worry about her.

The biggest X-factor is where is Ronda’s head at? She was so dominate for so long and than it just stops and its violent. She loses and so many people took joy in mocking her. She even admits to being suicidal after the fight. It could be the flip side though. Ronda is a very emotional person. When she wins she jumps for joy and celebrates nonstop. Also I think people forget Ronda has lost before. She had numerous losses in Judo and came back stronger. Another X-Factor is Ronda has been out of the cage. Normally I like a more active fighter. But I think the time off might be good for Ronda. Most has said “She isn’t fighting because of Holm...” Forgetting Ronda had said before UFC 193 she was taking time off. I don’t think any fighter went harder than Ronda during that three year run.

I am picking Ronda Rousey. I think way to many people have forgotten just how good she is. Nunes is not Holly Holm and in a number of ways she plays into Ronda’s strengts more than Holm ever will. Don’t get me wrong Nunes has fighting changing power. Ronda needs to be careful. Also Nunes is not bulletproof. A recurring issue for her is if she doesn’t get a quick win she gets tired. I think Ronda will go back to being very Judo heavy for this fight and get a submission win.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Championship Dominick Cruz (c) 23-1 MMA 5-0 UFC vs. Cody Brandt 10-0 MMA 5-0 UFC- The more things change the more they stay the same. Dominick Cruz facing a young up and comer but he’s also facing an Alpha Male guy. Realistically TJ Dillishaw should be getting rematch. But Garbrandt made it a point to keep calling Cruz out he got in his face backstage. He made this an issue and made it a fight people want to see. Also Cruz wanted this fight. Cruz last fought at UFC 199 in June. It was the third fight with Urijah Faber. The Deliminator Dominated. He hurt Faber several times he took him down. Once and for all he ended the feud. Garbrandt last fought in August at UFC 202 he knocked out Takeya Mizguaki in forty eight seconds.

The numbers give a clear power edge to Gardbrandt he’s has nine career knockout wins in only ten fights. Cruz has seven in twenty four career fights. When Garbrandt hits people they go down hard and don’t get back up. Striking is much more than just power. Cruz has some of the best footwork in MMA and he’s very unusual on his feet. As Cruz often says “I don’t get hit.” Cruz again has unusual movement so it might be hard for Garbrandt to get a read him to land a strike. Add into that Cruz will have three more inches of reach. And we know Cruz is not the type to fight stupid I have to give him the edge with the stand up.

Both men do have wrestling back round. Numbers don’t really say we will get much ground fighting. Cruz only has one submission win in his career. His lone career loss was via submission. Garbrandt has never recorded a submission in his MMA career. In there careers we have seen Cruz much more willing to mix in his wrestling with striking. Garbrandt always leading to his fights want to talk about knocking guys out. So advantage to Cruz.

Training Cruz is a member of Alliance MMA. Gardbrandt is part of team Alpha Male. Both are upper level camps with tons of big fight experience. I gotta give the edge to Cruz. One Alliance has always had one head coach in Eric Delfario. Alpha Male in the last years had Ludwig, than it was Kampman and now it’s Buckholdz. Both camps have a lot experience against each other. But Cruz has beaten everyone out of that camp and he’s done it time and again.

The biggest X-factor to me is experience level. Cruz has many more fights and he has many more fight against elite high level competition. Cruz has beat Faber twice, Dillishaw, he’s the last man to beat Demetrius Johnson. Gardbrandt’s biggest win was over Mizugaki a fighter that appears to really be on the decline. He’s very untested so what happen when Gardbrandt doesn’t just land a big shot and knock the guy out. We don’t know I his power will hold up against elite fighters. The other big X-Factor is mental warfare. Cruz may not be McGregor with the million dollar lines that get replayed every where. But the guy puts on his opponents. He has no problem mocking or insulting anyone. Gardbrandt kept calling him out but he’s now getting really wound up. He was snapping during that face to face during UFC on Fox. You can’t fight stupid and Cruz gets people to fight stupid.

This is not a hard pick for me. Cruz has every advantage. So much of what led to this fight was Gradbrandt willingness to talk and the fact Cruz’s sees this as a fight he can win and earn some good money. I think Cruz will draw this out we will see Gardbrandt forced to go late. It will be a decision win for Cruz.

TJ Dillashaw 13-3 MMA 9-3 UFC vs. John Lineker 29-7 MMA 9–2 UFC- Key fight in the bantamweight division. You have in Dilliashaw a former world champion who remains a top contender. Linkeker has been on the verge of a title shot for a while and one big impressive win could be what locks it up for him. Dillishaw last fought in July at UFC 200. He was facing Raphael Assuncao a fighter who had beat him in the past but many felt it was a bad judge’s call. This time Dillashaw got the win. Another good strong performance by Dillashaw doing what he does best lots of good movement with effective striking. Lineker last fought in October. It was a main event fight against John Dodson. Both men are known for there power but some thought Dodson’s speed would be the advantage. Linker though manged to land some big shots and got a split decision win.

Striking is pure one shot power vs. movement and technique that leads to knockouts. Linker is a power puncher he looks to brawl he had that ability to change a fight after landing a single strike. He has 13 career knockouts and has never been knocked out in his MMA career. Dillashaw only has six career knockouts. Dillashaw though much more of a technical fighter. Since hooking up with Bang Ludwig he has become one of the best users of movement in the entire sport. When he is on the attack he is always cutting an angle taking himself out of the pocket of the fight. His one and only knockout loss was very early in his career. You can’t afford to let Lineker land that one shot but Dillishaw’s style is going to make it very hard to land that one shot. We saw Dillishaw dismantel Renan Barrao twice and standing up this fight could a remake of those two fights. So edge Dillishaw.

When it comes to grappling Dillishaw has the wrestling background doing it all the way through college. He also very good at mixing up his wrestling rather it be with a takedown or even getting the fight against the cage. Lineker not really much of a wrestler he is looking to brawl. Dillishaw has three career wins and has never been submitted in his career. Lineker has four career submission career but also three losses. The guy willing to grapple is the one I give the advantage to Dillishaw.

Training Dillishaw is a member of Team Elevation. A fairly new team but has grown very quickly. He’s also a former member of Team Alpha Male and some of those guys still train with him. On top of that Dillishaw regularly trains with Bang Ludwig who is his head corner man. Lineker is a member of American Top Team. Very good training camp. Overall I think ATT is the better team. But again the edge I think goes to Dillishaw because it appears he and Lugwig have a special connection and that point of perfect coach perfect student.

One big X-Factor could be the weigh in. Linker has missed weight numerous times in his UFC career to the point he was forced to move up from flyweight to bantamweight. Than last time out he misses weight again against Dodson. By all accounts the UFC is reluctant to give him a title shot because in a title fight you have to make weight and don’t get an extra pound. Now in interview Linker has said he will make weight. But we just won’t know until he gets on the scale. And if he has a tough cut a guy like Dillishaw would be a nightmare to fight. The other X-Factor to me is where is Dillishaw’s head at. He started 2016 losing the title in a very close match with Cruz. He feels he should have gotten an automatic rematch. He didn’t and saw Faber get a title shot. So he fought at UFC 200 won again thinking he should get the next shot and he’s watching Garbrandt. If he’s looking past this fight or gets to caught up in wanting a knockout to impresses he could leave himself open.

This pick can tough to make. Because the kind of power Linker has just changes the equation so quick. Dillishaw doesn’t have perfect defense he does eat shots. That said guys who chase the knockout can tire out quickly. With the edges he has in tehiccal striking and his use of wrestling I think Dillishaw can tire Lineker out. I see a tired Lineker getting knocked out by Killihsaw in the third round.