De La Hoya Can Only Blame Himself

Mayweaher vs. McGregor Final Thoughts

UFC 214 Picks

Of Course It's a Circus but let's enjoy Mayweather vs. McGregor

UFC 211 Fallout

After a very slow start to 2017 the first big card of year arrived. In the shadow of the classic boxing heavyweight title fight Stipe Miocic rematched the last man to beat him looking to defend his heavyweight championship. Joanna Jedrejcyk returned to the city she won her championship in facing what some saw as her toughest test. Several of the UFC longest tenured vets faced off with title implication in the balance. So did card live up to its hype?

The In Ring Action- Yes it did! MMA can be a strange beast. Cards that should be thrilling start to finish can be flops and cards viewed as weak can give you the event of the year. Now a few years ago Miocic and Dos Santos took part in a classic fight. Some writers speculated if it could match the classic heavyweight boxing fight. I thought that was a little ridicules given the factors that went into fight with Joshua and Klitschko. In the UFC 211 main event Junior Dos Santos landed some strong leg kicks clearly hurting champion Miocic. It seemed like a good strategy as it would take away Miocic’s movement and athleticism and limit his power. However Dos Santos once again showed a long standing bad habit he kept is back against the cage. Miocic saw his chance and landed a right hand knocking JDS out. He might have been limping Miocic took a victory lap having tired the record for the most title defenses. In the co-main Joanna Jedrzejczyk put Jessica Andrade through a master class of striking. With her raw strength and aggressive style it was thought Andrade could be a threat to Joanna Champion. Instead we once again saw just how great the Polish champion is. Using her jab along with powerful front and leg kicks she kept Andrade off her for extended periods of time. She used great footwork and movement to avoid most of Andrade’s attacks. When Andrade was able drag her down Jedrzejczyk fought her back up and punished Andrade.

Demian Maia has looked nearly unstoppable lately. However for various reason’s he’s been unable to get a title shot. It’s no secret what Maia wants to its get the clinch drag the fight to the ground and submit you. Going into there fight Jorge Masvidal claimed his wrestling would able to stop Maia’s take downs. In the first Maia managed to take the back but Masvidal survived and when Maia slipped off late Gamebread punished him with hard shots. What they played out was a fascinating battle Maia trying to get the fight to the ground and Masviadl trying to keep it standing and getting him to strike. It was back and forth and frankly it was a case of to close to call. Maia scored the win but if the judges had give it to Masvidal it wouldn’t have been shocking. Yair Rodriguez attempted to make the most difficult leap in sports. From breakout star true contender. Faced with veteran former champion Frankie Edgar he learned just how hard that leap can be. Rodriguez has a flashy offensive style. Using strong boxing mixed with footwork, fakes and feints Edgar got Rodriguez on his back foot early on. Edgar than Rodriguez down and mauled him. After the second round the doctor’s stepped in and called the fight off with Rodriguez having a large swelling around his eye.

The opening fight of the PPV was the one bad fight on the show. Frankly it wasn’t that bad it was just wasn’t that great. Former WSOF two division champion David Branch returned to the UFC for the first time in years against top ten ranked Kryzsztof Jotko. Branch seemed like he was a big nervous and Jotko like he was afraid to lose. The undercard was a series of exciting fight I recommend seeking out the Courtney Casey vs Jessica Agular, Chase Sherman vs. Rashad Coulter, and Chase Skelly vs. Jason Knight. The featured prelim between Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Porier looked like it was a classic in the making. Until the mess that is new rules vs. old road and allowing states to control major fight took over again. Alvarez had been badly hurt but was fight back in when he hit Porier with a series of knee. I have no idea if they were legal or illegal under either rule set. The fight was just over. I know giving control to the UFC to make it’s own rules won’t fix everything. Human’s make mistakes. But Herb Dean just like Dan Merglotta is a good ref and having the same rules would help them make fewer ones.

Biggest Winners:

Stipie Miocic- The heavyweight championship of the world still belongs to Cleveland’s finest. Miocic came into the UFC with huge potential and heavy expectations and he’s lived up to and surpassed them. His first loss was his first main event in hindsight it wasn’t that bad a loss given it was to a very experienced UFC vet. His second loss was to JDS the first time he faced a true elite fighter. That was a close split decision loss. Since that day he’s been unstoppable. He hasn't been outside of the first round since 2015. Beating JDS in such convincing fashion makes it clear he’s the best heavyweight in MMA right now. Also any fighter will tell you it’s sweat to avenge a loss and with knockout it’s extra sweat. Plus the win bonus and performance of the night bonus should cover the cost of the new kitchen he’s remolding.

Demian Maia- Maia has had a single title shot in his UFC career back when he was a middleweight. Since dropping to welterweight he’s always seemed to be on the verge of a title shot but one thing or another kept him out it. An unexpected loss to Jake Shields, Thompson and Woodley’s first fight being a draw. Finally after beating Jorge Masvidal in a tough fight Dana White made it clear the next shot was his. At 39 time it short on Maia’s career. Another delay might mean he will never get a second shot. Hell even during the post fight Tyron Woodley pretty much confirmed he knew there was no way the UFC was going to book something else.

Smaller Fight Camps- I talked about this when Miocic won the title but it bears repeating now. Often a fighter starts off with a camp close to home. Eventually anyone real talent is expected to move onto a bigger team with elite coaches and high level training partners. Than there is Miocic who started with his strong style fight team. Outside of Jessica Eye he’s the only high level fighter that’s a part of it. By staying with his team it shows you don’t always have to leave home. Also Parana Vale Tudo the team that trains Jessica Andrade got there fighter into a world title shot. While some wondered if they would be embarrassed instead they did well corning her. Frankly it was just the fact Joanna champion is so good.

Biggest Losers:

Junior Dos Santos- Leading up to his title shot Junior was asked if he thought this could be his last chance to regain the title. He laughed it off reminding people he was only thirty three. Except thirty three can be old for an athlete. Often it’s not an issue of how old an athlete is but how hard there career has been. In his career Dos Santos has taken a lot of damage. His second and third fights with Velasquez saw him take awful beatings. His first fight with Miocic was a war that saw him hurt several times. Now he’s been knocked out by Overeem and Miocic in two of his last three fights. While his supports will point to his win over Ben Rothwell but there is no denying this was a major setback. You can only get it so many times. And right now there are emerging contenders in the division.

What comes next

The simple truth is there is not a clear cut next contender at heavyweight right now. Stylistically many have suggested Cain Velasquez. The issue as it often is is that Velasquez can’t stay healthy. He was denied a licness earlier this year after admitting he needed back surgery. Add into the fact he lost so badly against Werdum who has remained active. Werdum and Overeem have a fight with each other coming up. However both lost in the first round to Miocic in the first round. That said all three could be interesting fights. The one name that seems to keep keep coming up next for Jedrzejczyk is Rose Namajunas. Thug Rose has always been viewed as a fighter with a huge upside. She’s got a very flash style wit standing up and a strong ground game.

UFC 211 Picks

The UFC has a fairly slow start to the year. But that ends here we got a loaded card. We even lost a high level fight due to a USADA flag and its still a great card.

UFC Heavyweight Championship Stipe Miocic © 16-2 MMA 10-2 UFC vs. Junior dos Santos 18-4 MMA 12-3 UFC- December 14^th 2014 these two men met in the main event of a UFC on Fox card. The story going in was Miocic the young fighter everyone thought would be champion one day taking JDS the former champion had just lost the third fight with Velasquez. It was actually a very exciting fight. It was very close and I remember that night scoring it for Miocic as I think a lot of people did. However the judges scored it for dos Santos giving him a win. But this sport’s path is rarely a straight line. JDS has dealt with injures limiting him to only two fights since than. Stipe goes on a roll just tearing through guys and well here we now. Miocic is champion.

Miocic last fought in September at UFC 203. It was his first title defense and he was paired up with Alistair Overeem. He had some real pressure on him. The show was held in his home town of Cleveland. That can actually be something of curse. Early on got hurt badly by a big body kick and than was knocked down with a right hand. Than he was caught in the Guillotine choke. He managed to escape got back up and than started to hurt Overeem. He eventually got the fight down to the ground got mount and finished it with sledge hammer like ground and pound. He’s now won four in a row all via knockout and the last three have all been in the first round. JDS last fought in April at a Fight Night. He was paired up with Ben Rothwell. Going into the that fight Rothwell had won four in a row having finished all four. But dos Santos came in and fought a near perfect fight. He used his footwork and kept Rothwell off him. He mixed in kicks so the right never became a brawl. JDS scored a decision win and with a prior win over the champion he’s getting the chance to win back the title he once held.

When you talk about the stand up debate you have two the two best boxers in all of MMA and easily the best two in the heavyweight division. Miocic is a former golden gloves champion. Dos Santos early on in his UFC career showed some brilliant footwork and really dominated guys with only punches. That said both men have great kicks as well. Miocic has leg kicks that are devastating and JDS manged to KO Mark Hunt with one and vs. Rothwell sent him flying with a side kick. In terms of the knockout power Miocic has twelve career knockouts eight of which are in the UFC and in his MMA career eight are in the first round. He has one career loss via knockout. Dos Santos also has twelve career knockout wins in his career. Seven in the UFC with in the UFC. He’s been knocked out twice in his UFC career. Now in terms of technical skill I would say dos Santos is better on that end but Miocic has really freaky power. For example if you go back and watch his title win he won going backwards with a punch he didn’t fully get to extend. That said cleaner technique often can land first and harder. So I am calling ti a draw standing up.

We often don’t see see either guy on the ground unless it to finish a guy with ground and pound. Junior dos Santos does have a BJJ black belt but he only has two career submission wins and one of those was off an injury. He’s only been submitted once in his career that was way back in 2007 very early in his career. Miocic does have some very good wrestling in but his lone submission win was off of hitting a guys with leg kick and forcing him to quit. JDS has shown very good takedown defense but we did see in the second and third Velasquez fights making him wrestle can tire him out. Again I m lean towards giving the edge to Miocic in that I think he will be looking to grapple more. JDS might only grapple when forced to.

Looking at training Miocic is the stand out member of the Ohio based Strong Style Fight Team. That is the team he has spent his whole career with. Really outside of Jessica Eye he is the only fighter fro that team to reach a national promotion. Dos Santos is training with American Top Team. ATT one of the oldest and most successful training camps in MMA. Now for a long time I’ve always felt the bigger team with the more renowned coaches and more high level training partners is the advantage. However we have seen more and more fighters either move to a smaller team or start mixing it up spending some time with a big team but staying close to home. Also JDS has moved around a bit in recent years also spending time with first team, Nova Uno, and now ATT. Miocic’s coaches have been around him so long they know his good days and bad days. ATT’s staff may still be learning about dos Santos. That said he’s now been with them a few camps. Also I still think ATT has better coaches. So slight edge to JDS.

When we get to X-Factor its who is the fresher fighter? Age wise Miocic is older by a few months but often in MMA its not a case of ow many miles on the odomator but how hard have the miles been? JDS has been in more fights and frankly taken a lot of damage in his career. I don’t think he’s ever been quite the same since the second fight with Velasquez where he took a large amount of punishment. He also was badly beat up in the third fight with the two. The first fight with Miocic was the kind of action fight where both men wind up feeling it for a while. He also was pretty beat up after the fight with Hunt and than KO’ed against the Reem. Miocic did get KO’ed vs. Struve but other than that and the fist JDS fight’s managed to avoid much damage until he was Rocked vs. the Reem. If this winds up being a war you have to wonder how much JDS could take. Advantage Miocic. The other big X-Factor I think will be athleticism. Miocic has got amazing movement and speed. No one else in the division really matches that well with him advantage Miocic.

The final X-Factor is history. No UFC heavyweight champion has ever been able to defend that championship more than twice in a single reign. The simple truth is when you have guy this big and strong it just takes one little opening to end a fight. Dos Santos saw this better than anyone. When he won the title it took a single shot to win it. When he lost the title he was hit with one big shot he never recovered from. A lot of people think Miocic can be the guy to break this trend, but we thought that about Brock, Cain, and Werdum. Advantage JDS trends like this do hold up for a reason.

Picking in the heavyweight division is always just a 50 50 shot. Like I said above it just takes that one little moment. That said I’m pretty confident Miocic wins. I don’t like the amount of damage that JDS has taken over the year. Miocic was a handful for him a few years ago. Now Miocic is a much better fighter and I really haven’t seen improvement from JDS. Also we have a very clear game plan to beat JDS now. I think Miocic gets a decision win as he uses more of his wrestling tires JDS out early and than knocks him out in the third.

UFC Strawweight Championship Joanna Jedrejczyk (c) 13-0 MMA 7-0 UFC vs. Jessica Andrade 16-5 MMA 7-3 UFC- This is one of those fights you just go “Oh this could amazing.” Jedrzejczyk has been so dominate as world champion you wonder who could truly challenge her. Andre is so aggressive and so was a top ten fighter at Bantamweight who has looked unstoppable since dropping to straweight. Since Andrade dropped down a lot of people have wanted to see her fight Joanna. People think she could be the one to take the title. And we have seen Joanna look a bit vulnerable lately. Most importunity Andrade is a fighter the comes forward and attacks we haven’t seen someone do that with Jedrejzyk.

Jedrzejczyk last fought in November back at UFC 205. She was challenged by Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Now the two had fought once back as ameatures with Joanna winning. UFC 205was no ameature fight. It was the biggest event in MMA history. Lots of media lots of talk. Joanna looked like she was onto another big dominate win. However in the fourth round Kowalkiewicz caught her with a counter strike. We had seen her caught and we had seen her hurt but she was in trouble for a while. Now she recovered and had done more than enough to win that fight. But much like with Demetrius Johnson looking weak vs. Tim Elliot just the sight of her getting hurt was a big story. Andrade last fought in February during Super Bowl weekend during a Fight Night. She was matched up with Angela Hill. Hill was making her return to the UFC after a strong run in Invitca. It was an exciting series of exchanges Andrade managed to get the unanimous decision win. She is now 3-0 at straweight.

Striking is what a lot of people want to see in this fight. Andrade is a very aggressive striker. She comes foreword throwing as much as she can. She throws wild punches and loves to brawl. Now she only has five career knockouts. Part of that is she fought her career at bantamweight where she was always the smaller fighter. She has only been knocked out twice in her career showing she’s got a great chin. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a former Muay Thai fighter with over sixty fights in her career between Armature and Pro fights. Now she only has four career knockouts in MMA but she hits hard. When she connects you hear it. Go watch how beat Jessica Penne and Valerie Letourneau were after fighting her. I have to give a clear edge to Joanna. She has much better technical striking. Andrade likes to loop her punches while Joanna comes down the pipe. Joanna is a very good counter striker and also uses her kicks very well. She is also very smart with the strikes she thrown. Yes in her last two fights she was dropped and than dazed but those were brief moments other than that she was a superior striker.

We haven’t seen any real ground game for Jedrejczyk. We have seen show very good takedown defense in her career. But in terms of submission she only has one in her pro career. When someone tries to take her down we usually see her sprawl and hit some hard elbows. Now she did have issues when Claudia Gadelha so she can taken down and even kept down for a time. Andrade has seven career submissions and has only been submitted twice. Also I don’t see Joanna taking this fight to the ground she might clinch to hit knees and elbows but not get a takedown. Andrade I think almost has to work the ground game is she’s going to win. So edge Andrade.

Looking at the training camps Joanna Champion is now out of American Top Team. This will be her second fight with that team. Mike Brown a former WEC champion often serves as the head coach for the females on that team. Brown is regarded as great corner man. The team has a great roster of coaches in every aspect. Also I think with Joanna, Amanda Nunes and a few others it has one of the best classes of female talents in the world. Andrade trains with Parana Vale Tudo in Brazil. I can’t find a lot of info on that team and it appear Andrade would be the most well known fighter from it. Now Andrade said before the Hill fight she needed the money from that to finance a championship level camp when for when she fights Joanna. Now that doesn’t mean she thinks her team sucks. It’s not uncommon to bring in specialized training partners. For example Woodley brought Sage Northcutt for both Thompson camps. But I do feel the edge goes to Joanna. Even if Andrade was only talking getting great Muay Thai fighters Joanna take the x here.

Looking at the X-Factor the biggest might be does Andrade let Joanna get to her. Joanna is one of those fighters that has such a big reputation before you face her she mentally breaks people. And she loves to play mind games. She loves to get people’s face trash talk and mock. But Andreade whole style is built on coming forward. If she does that and fights her fight that already a win for her. And we really haven’t seen someone pressure Joanna striking wise. The other big X-factor is the fact the fight is five rounds. Joanna has gone that distance the last three fight. This is Andrade first fight that long. And a lot fighters have said you can train you ass off but it’s still test the first time you got into championship rounds in actual fight. Huge edge for the champion.

My pick is simple. It’s Joanna. She is such a great striker I can’t see anyone getting the better of her for very long. I think Andrade will try to brawl and that will backfire. I think Joanna picks her off at rang breaks her down with leg kicks and than finishes it in the fourth round with a TKO win.

Demian Maia 24-6 MMA 18-6 UFC vs. Jorge Masvidal 32-11 MMA 9-4 UFC- Demian Maia should have gotten a title shot by now. He’s won six in row finished three of them dominated every fight. Hell he’s barely even been hit in those fights. But when Woodley vs. Wonderboy 1 was a draw it caused a rematch and now with the way things worked out Maia felt he needed to take another fight. Jorge Masvidal is a fighter that most of his career has been an also ran but he’s gotten very good lately and a win here could make him the number one contender. Maia last fought in August in the main event of a UFC on Fox card. He was matched up with former WEC and UFC Interim champion Carlos Condit. He got right into the clinch dragged Condit down locked in a choke and won in just under two minutes. That was put him at six in a row. Masvidal last fought in January at another UFC on Fox card. That fight he faced Donald Cerrone. Since dropping welterweight Cerrone had been amazing he was unbeaten. Masvidal destroyed him using his superior. It was so bad the normally calm Greg Jackson was screaming “We aren’t losing” at Cowboy after the first round. Jackson was wrong Masvidal knocked Cerrone out with ease in the second round. He’s now won three in a row

There is no denying Masvidal will have the advantage when it comes to striking. He’s got very clean boxing. He throws good hard punches. He’s only got 12 career knockouts but he’s now got two in a row. He’s only been knocked out once in his MMA career. He’s also got a professional boxing fight to his credit. Maia doesn’t really strike. He’s only won three fight via knockout. He really doesn’t have the great technique. He’s only lost via knockout though. Really Maia only goes into striking mood when he can’t get a takedown. And well go watch his fight with Chris Weidman to see how sloppy that can be. If this fight stays standing it favors Jorge Masvidal.

Now there is no denying that the grappling edges goes to Maia. He is a fourth degree BJJ blackbelt. In BJJ tournaments he won many of the biggest ones in the world. In MMA he has won twelve fights via submission and never been submitted in his career. Even in fights where he doesn’t get the submission he just drags guys down and controls them just watch his fight with Jon Fitch. Masvidal does have a wrestling background but that was in high school. In MMA he won two fight via submission and lost two via submission. Maia has insane state about how little he gets hit and that is because he easily gets guys down. When this fight is on the ground Masvial is swimming with a shark.

Looking at the training camps Maia currently trains with his own Demian Maia Jiu-Jitsu. Now He’s done very well with his own team. More and more we are seeing fighters in MMA do this. Often with your own team it becomes all about you it’s about getting you ready its more like how boxers do it. Masvidal is a long time member of American Top Team. My gut say ATT give Masvidal the advantage. Mainly I worry with Maia I wonder if he is doing any real striking training.

I think the biggest X-factor will be size. Maia is 6’1 and fought many years at Middleweight. Masvidal is 5’10 and has fought at lightweight. We know what Maia’s game plane will be. He will want to drag Masvidal to the ground after tying him up. Being the bigger man will make that easier. Now Masvidal will have a reach advantage but still in the clinch he will have issues. Advantage Maia.

My pick is Demian Maia. I think the size is going to be a big factor add into that his huge grappling edge I think it’s a win for the should be number one contender. Like I said Maia doesn’t really get hit very often in his fights. Masvidal has said his wrestling will be enough to keep the fight standing but I just recall the much better wrestler Jon Fitch couldn’t stop him from taking him down. I say first round submission for Maia.

Frankie Edgar 21-5-1 MMA 15-5-1 UFC vs. Yair Rodriguez 10-1 MMA 5-0 UFC- Classic story in combat sports. The long time star the former world champion wanting to make another run up the mountain in one corner. On the other side the promising emerging star that appears to be a champion in the making. This is a very fascinating fight that could go either way. Frankie Edgar last fought at UFC 205 in November. He was matched up with Jeremy Stephens. That was an important fight for him. He was coming a very one sided loss to Jose Aldo at UFC 200 and he needed to prove he was still a contender. Much better fight for him this time. He used good footwork and boxing mixed in his wrestling to gain a unanimous decision win. Yair Rodriguez last made the walk to the cage in January at a UFC Fightnight. It was his second main event this time he was matched up with BJ Penn. Now at this stage BJ is well past his prime he’s a bigger name than actual ranked foe. Still though you wonder would the moment be to big for Rodriquez? We had seen his boxing wasn’t that strong could BJ who has heavy hands do some damage? What if he got taken down? Well it didn’t matter. Rodriquez showed improved boxing and mixing in his great kicks beat the living crap out of Penn. He knocked him out early in the second round.

Big contrasts in striking. Edgar has six career knockout wins and officially he has never been knocked out. However we have seen him get his bell rung many times. Rodriguez has four career knockouts now his one career loss was a knockout. I think power edge goes to Rodriguez based on the higher rate. Now in terms of striking style you don’t get much different. Edgar is a boxer type. Now it’s easy to classify him as a “bite down on the mouthpiece” type but we have seen him have very good footwork. Rodriguez has a back round Taekwondo and we seen him amazing kicks. Now Rodriguez will have the reach and with his kicks could Edgar at range similar to Aldo. We also saw Rodriguez show better boxing last time out. So I am giving him the edge in striking.

When it comes to grappling everything says Edgar. He only has four career submission wins but he’s never been submitted in his career. He’s a BJJ blackbelt having been trained by Renzo Gracie and Richado Almedia. On top of that we have seen him use his wrestling very well at featherweight he has been able slam guys when he gets in and he does have a wrestling back round. Rodriguez has one career submission win. He is not formally ranked in BJJ and doesn’t have any grappling back round. I don’t think he’s faced a wrestler on the level of Edgar. Clearly the edge goes to Frankie Edgar.

Looking at training Edgar works with Mark Henry for his striking and as a head coach. As I mentioned in grappling he also has Renzo Graciea and Almedia. That group of coaches also work with Eddie Alvarez, Marlon Moraes, and some other high level guys. Rodriguez Valle-Flow stiking. Its a smaller team which from interviews he’s said it was due to wanting to work on his wrestling. I gotta give a clear edge to Frankie here he’s got great coaches working with him. Added bonus for have Alvarez on the same card which many fighters say they love having teammate in camp for exact event as it helps them peak just right.

The biggest X-Factor will be toughest test for one fighter just another fight for the other. Rodriguez has looked amazing but he’s yet to face a truly elite fighter like Frankie Edgar. For Frankie though he’s been facing the best of the best for years now. Frankie is tough and has that dog in him. On top of that Frankie has been through it all in his career. He’s been hurt and come back. This could the first time we Yair unable to land his fancy kicks or take down and beat up. Both are huge edges for Frankie Edgar.

Now I do think Yair Rodriguez can be a UFC champion someday. But today I’m picking Frankie Edgar. I could very well Yair doing well on but thank Frankie getting hitting some good punches than tying him up and taking him down over and over again. I also could simply see Frankie landing a great punch and dropping him. I think its of those times we see just far the next big thing still has to grow.

Henry Cejudo 10-2 MMA 4-2 UFC vs. Sergio Pettis 15-2 MMA 6-2 UFC- Both these fighters entered the UFC with a lot of expectations. Both have had success but also struggled. Even sometimes in victory they haven’t impressed. But every fight is a new chance to impress. Cejudo last fought in December at the TUF Final. It was the coaches fight with Joseph Benvidez. Now he was looking really good but he kept hitting low blows costing him a point. And in the end he lost fight on a decision. Now lost two in row after a perfect 10-0 to start his career. Pettis last fought in January at a UFC Fightnight he beat John Moraga via decision. He’s won three in a row at Flyweight all via decision.

Neither guy really known as a knockout puncher Cejudo has the higher rate with Four Knockouts in ten career wins. He’s was knocked out off a body shot and ground and pound in the fight with Johnson. Pettis only has three career knockouts in fifth teen career win. He’s also only been knocked out once that was in the Ryan Benoit fight again that was a TKO off of punches. Pettis has more of a background in striking he’s a black belt in Taekwondo and also one in Roufussport Kickboxing Program. From just watching them fight Pettis has cleaner technical striking. Cejudo looks more to muscle his punches. Edge goes to Pettis.

The grappling edge clearly goes to Cejudo its not even close. The man was an Olympic gold medalist. He’s the classic been on the mat since he was kid. Pettis does not have a background in grappling. And we have seen struggle when he gets pushed into being forced to do it. Now the submission numbers do favor Pettis as he has three career submission wins and only been submitted once. Cejudo has never won via submission win or ever been submitted. But the better wrestler usually controls if BJJ ever becomes an issue. So edge Cejudo.

Looking training Pettis is a long standing member of Roufusport under the great Duke Rofus one of the best coaches in MMA. That teams has a number of very good coaches and some great fighters on the team. They include Sergio’s older brother Anthony a former UFC champion, Ben Askren, and Tyron Woodley and a few others. Cejudo trains with Fight Ready in Arizona. Seems to be he’s the biggest name on there. I know his older brother is one of his coaches. From what I can tell a few guys from his TUF team have joined. Right now clear edge to Pettis he’s got the best of the best back there. They may not be able to make him a better wrestler than Cejudo but they can show him how to make it harder for Cejudo to wrestle.

I think the biggest X-Factor will be who is more likely to be great. Like I said in the open both guy have good records but don’t impress they don't’ have that highlight reel moment. Who is more likely to do that is Cejudo. He’s seems to have more power and seems to have ability to just slam Pettis down. It always feels like Pettis just goes out there gets into first gear and if that’s enough it’s enough it’s not well there isn’t a second one.

I am picking Cejudo. I think he will feel more pressure and it will cause him to fight at a high level. I expect him to take Pettis down early and often and keep him down. It will to the distance and the judges give it to Cejudo.

Eddie Alvarez 28-5 MMA 3-2 UFC vs. Dustin Poirier 21-5 13-4 UFC- This is one of those fights that I think the matchmakers put together to get a fight of the night. Eddie Alvarez last fought in November at UFC 205. It was the biggest event in MMA history it was the biggest fight of his life, and it was the worse performance of his career. He entered as the UFC Lightweight Champion and was defending against the biggest star in the sport Conor McGregor. He had openly called Conor an easy. There was a feeling that Conor hadn’t earned all the oppturines he’s been given. And on paper it should have been a very close fight. Eddie is very tough and experienced he has great stand up and is very good offensive wrestler. Yet in realty it was a night of target practice for Conor. Eddie took the left hand over and over again. And Eddie got dropped a few times. Conor started to put his hands behind his back daring Eddie to him and Alvarez just froze. Finally just over three minutes into the second it was over. Poirier last fought in February at UFC 208. He was matched up with Jim Miller. Early on he suffered a leg injury. But kept fighting and had a thrilling battle and earned a decision win. He’s now five of six since moving up to lightweight.

Alvarez has the higher KO rate. He’s got 15 career knockouts and only been knocked out twice in his career. Poirier has teen career knockouts and also only has two career knockout losses. Both men use a lot of boxing as the primary striking style. Poirier will have a three inch reach advantage 72 to 69. Alvarez has shown very good foot work and use of feints. Also if you go back and watch the fight with RDA he showed great use of mixing it up going to the head and the body. This could be a very good fight I will give a slight edge to Eddie based on his footwork. And I stress slight edge.

When it comes to grappling it’s Alvarez with the background in wrestling from back when he was in high school. For the most part he does a good job of mixing in his wrestling during a fight. Both men are ranked brown belts in BJJ and both trainer with upper level coaches so these are empty belts. In terms of numbers Alvarez has seven career submission wins but none since 2010. He’s also lost twice via submission. Poirier has six career submission wins but none since 2012. He also one submission loss. My own feeling it the edge goes to Eddie based on his wrestling.

Training camps Poirier is a long time member of ATT. He’s got elite coaches and elite training partners all around and had many of them getting ready to fight on this card. Alvarez’s head coach is Mark Henry he also trains with Ricardo Almedia. He also has some very good training partners including Frankie Edgar. I am saying it’s equal both guys are working with great teams.

The biggest X-Factor to me is how Alvarez responds coming off a loss. His history has been when he losses he comes back very strong. When he was submitted by Aoki he than rolled off seven wins in a row with six finishes winning and defending the Bellator Title. When he lost to Chandler he came back to knockout Aoki in a rematch and than KO Pitbull in the rematch and regain the title beating Chandler. Than he lost to Cerrrone in his UFC debut but follows that up beating Melendez, Pettis and RDA in a row. I think he’s going to come back real strong and make it clear “That guy at UFC 205 was not Eddie Alvarez.”

So I am picking Eddie Alvarez. Now I won’t be shocked if Dustin Poirier wins. I think just simple fact is Eddie is better in every area. I think this could be a thrilling fight I think it will be close enough it’s a split decision but Alvarez's hand goes up.

UFC on Fox Johnson vs. Reis Picks

Back on the big fox network. We have a chance at history the pound for pound king looks to tie a record. Two top straweights battle in a key fight. The man who is viewed as the uncrowned champion in the middleweight division faces off with a dangerous young challenger with the power to derail his dreams. And finally one of the UFC’s longest stars faces a younger fighter looking and needing to make an impact.

UFC Flyweight Championship Demetrious Johnson (c) 25-2-1 MMA 12-1-1 UFC vs. Wilson Reis 22-6 MMA 6-2 UFC- Mighty Mouse Johnson is the best fighter in the world today. He is on a long winning streak he is the only man ever hold the Flyweight title. No other champion is even close to the number of defenses he’s made. He has won against just about every single type of fighter in every single way you can imagine. He has made it clear his goal is to break Anderson Silva’s record for most UFC title defenses. Well now he’s on the verge of tying that record. But last time he had a fairly rough fight. It was in December and he was matched up with Tim Elliot the winner of the most recent season of the Ultimate Fighter. Its one of those fights where everyone thought he was going to win easy and win early. Sometimes different factors play into a fight. Elliot entered that fight no real pressure he’s a very large fighter for the division go a very awkward stand up style and a good ground game. A few times Elliot manged to get DJ in trouble the fight went the full five rounds. Still though Johnson clearly won that fight and retained his title.

Reis at one point booked to challenge DJ for the title. However an injury to DJ along with the fact the winner of TUF was supposed to challenge for the flyweight belt it was called off. So his only real option was to keep fighting and keep winning. His last fight was in February at UFC 208 he dominated a fight Ulka Sasaki. He used great grappling to control the fight. Before that he fought at UFC 201 easily submitting Hector Sandvol in under two minutes. He’s on a three fight winning streak. And mainly thanks to the benefit of being a fresh name he’s getting a title shot because DJ has already beat Benvidez twice.

The striking aspect clearly favors Johnson. Might Mouse has five career knockouts he’s never been knocked in his career. We have only ever seen him rocked a few times that was against Brad Pickett and later against John Dodson two very heavy handed guys. Pickett was very early on in his career and Dodson has great speed that lets him catch little openings. A big key to Johnson’s success has been his clean technique. He’s not wild and looping he keeps a good guard. And he has power that can hurt people. Reis has never scored a knock out in his MMA career not even a ground and pound TKO. Now part of that is he is a very submission based fighter, so he’s not looking to strike. That said he’s been knocked out twice although both of those were back in 2011. He’s got a very wild technique when he does strike. The longer this fight is a kickboxing battle it favors the champion.

Reis has already called his shot saying he is going to submit Johnson. Reis has a BJJ blackbelt and in MMA he has ten career submission wins. He also never lost a MMA fight via submission. Johnson is no slouch when it comes to the submission game. He has nine career submission wins and he also has never submitted in a fight. Often in a situation like this the better wrestler gets the edge. And I think Johnson is the better wrestler. This very well could simply come down to who can keep the fight int eh position they want. Johnson may not even look for a take down but instead keep it standing and make the BJJ a non factor. Again advantage Johnson.

Looking at training Johnson is a student of Matt Hume at AMC Pankration. Hume has been with DJ a long time a case of two of near perfect student teacher relationship. Hume is an expert in every facoit of the game and Johnson works so hard to learn he can from him. Together they might have just made the perfect fighter. Reis trains with Alliance MMA and head coach Eric Del Fierro. That is another top gym in MMA Del Fierro is an elite coach who has worked with some of the best (mainly Dominick Cruz) and he actually has a win as a corner man over DJ and Hume. I gotta say toss up in terms of coaching you don’t get much better than Hume and Del Fierro.

To me the biggest X-Factor is no pressure on Reis. Johnson's not just excepted to win he’s expected in win easy. DJ is the one chasing history put a you have to wonder if “The champagne is already on ice.” And DJ talks about knowing he’s not a huge draw so he has to keep winning. Reis meanwhile no one thinks he can win no thinks he will win. But Chris Weidman UFC 162, Holly Holm UFC 193, Michael Bisping UFC 199. All fighters that people were going “Oh good for you getting a title shot… Hope you don’t get to embarrassed.”

End of the day thought I’m not picking against Demetrius Johnson unless I see something really special from the guy he is facing. I think Reis is a good fighter but I don’t think he’s good enough to be the man that topples Johnson. I think Johnson will keep this fight standing and that will allow him to get the win. I won’t be shocked if Johnson knocks him out. DJ wins he ties the record and they set him up to break it sometime during international fight week.

Rose Namajunas 5-3 MMA 3-2 UFC vs. Michelle Waterson 14-4 MMA 2-0 UFC- The Straweight Division has belonged to one person since the start of it. With Joanna Champion having already beaten so many top contenders it really just take one or two strong wins to be in the spot to challenge for the title. We also have a pretty good idea who the upper level talent is. These two both count as upper level. Waterson last fought in December in the main event of the last Fox card. She was paried up with Paige VanZant. Now Waterson saw that fight as the first step into becoming a superstar in her own right. She stayed lose and calm the whole weekend went in there got the fight to the ground and easily submitted PVZ. Namajunas last fought in July at UFC 201 she was matched up with Karolina Kowalkiewicz. And she couldn’t get anything going. Kowalkiewicz outstruck the fight never really got to the mat and she lost a clear decision. The good news for Namajunas she is young has tons of potential and if she can beat Waterson she is right back where she was before UFC 201.

This could be a very fun fight to watch when it comes to striking. Both women have backgrounds in traditional martial arts and throw some different strikes than the usual MMA fighters you see. Nieher fighter is really known for there power. Namajunas has never scored a knockout in her MMA career. Waterson only has three. In terms of who is more technical I say Waterson. Namajunas can be pretty technical but she has a tendency to get a bit wild when looking to press the action. To me this comes down to the old eye ball test. Waterson just appears to be a good enough counter striker that I think Namajuans falls into the same kind of trap she was in vs. Kowalkiewicz.

Both fighters have a great deal of talent on the ground. Namajunas has four career submission wins and has never lost via submission. Waterson has nine submission wins with two tap out losses. Again it feels like Waterson is more techila. But I think Namajuna will have an edge wrestling wise. She’s bigger. Waterson mostly has fought at atomweight. So I think it’s a slight edge to Namajunas.

Looking at training camps Waterson is a long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. She has a great well of coaches and training partners. She’s been there for years had a lot of success with them. Namajunas is a member of the Grudge Training Center in Colorado. That camp is run by Trevor Wittman. Its another very good camp Wittman has a great reputation. I am giving the edge to Waterson based on more over all success of the camp. To compare it to the NFL it’s like having Bill Bellicheck as your head coach your calling him the best no matter who he faces.

So the X-Factors the biggest one to me will be mental state and emotional reactions. Namajuna is know as a very emotional fighter. That can be a good thing but we have seen get overwhelmed. Waterson you never really see her get lose her composure. If this fight doesn’t got Waterson’s way early you feel she will go back to her corner get advice and still be able to win. If this fight doesn’t go Namajuans way early on she may be shot for the whole night. Advantage Waterson. The other x-factor is potential to get better. Namajunas is only 24 years old she’s only had a eight career fights 11 if you count TUF 20, she can still get better. Her coaches and others in the sport have said she’s still got tons of potential. Waterson is 31 she has 18 career fight in MMA she’ pretty locked into who she is as a fighter at this point. So if we see jump in talent or skills it will be from Namajunas so that is a advantage for Thug Rose.

When it comes to the pick I am have to go with Michelle Waterson. I just feel she got all the things that Namajunas struggles with. She’s technical, she very well rounded, she doesn’t get overly emotional. I think this fight goes all three rounds and its Waterson’s hand going up in the end.

Ronaldo Souza 24-4 1NC MMA 7-1 UFC vs. Robert Whittaker 17-4 MMA 8-2 UFC- There is no such thing as a risk free fight. For Jacare Souza he’s the man many view as the best middleweight in the world in order to get a title shot he’s got to keep winning. For Robert Whittaker he’s made himself a true contender. A win here though sends the message he should the one cutting the line. Souza last fought in February at UFC 208. He easily destroyed Tim Boestsch. Got him in a submission hold and nearly tore his arm off. He’s now back on a two fight winning streak with two first round finishes Whittaker last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. It was his first main event it was in his home town country of Australia and he was paried up with Derek Brunson. Early on he got rocked but manged to recover he started to land and knocked out Brunson.

The standup numbers favor Whittaker. He started in Karate at young age and has eight career knockout wins. The only person to every knock him out was Wonderboy Thompson when he was fighting at welterweight. Souza only has three knockout wins and he’s been knocked out twice. We also saw him get rocked in two other losses. That said Jacare has developed some very good standup. So I will give the edge Whittaker but Jacare can do damage. This could be a very close fight standing up. Jacare does have power its just he’s such expert at submissions he doesn’t really go for them he hurts you and takes you down. So slight edge to Whittaker.

There is no mistaking who has the edge in grappling Souza is one of the greatest Brazil Jiu-Jitsu competers ever. He won numerous world championships in BJJ tournaments all over the world. In MMA he has won via submission seventeen times. He has never been submitted in a MMA fight. Whitaker has five career submission wins and only been submitted once. But he is just not the level of grappler that Souza is. Souza also has very strong wrestling. Every second they tied up Whittaker is in the danger zone. Once this fight goes to the ground he’s got bust his ass to back up.

Looking at training Souza is member of X-Gym down in Brazil he also works with Blackhouse and trains with guys like Anderson Sivla, The Nogeria Brothers. Robert Whittaker is works with PMA Super Martial Arts in Austrila. No contest who the better gym is. Whittaker is the only big name that gym has produced so far.

Looking at the X-Factors I think the biggest one is the look ahead factor. Whittaker is still coming up the ranks. Each fight has been the biggest fight of his career. Souza fees slighted by the UFC. Could he already thinking “I’ll step in if GSP gets hurt” or already planning to call for a rematch with Romero or Rockhold? If he does he could leave himself open.

That said I’m picking Souza. You legit can say his is the best middleweight in the world. His lone loss in the UFC had some stuff go on and it was razor close. I don’t think Whittaker has a huge edge standing up and outside of a quick knockout it's impossible to keep Jacare off him and not have it go to the ground. Whittaker can be a champion someday but I think this is one of those fights where he learns how far he has to go. I think Jacare get in there drags Whittaker to the ground and submits him in one round.

UFC 210 Picks

For the first time since 1995 the UFC is in Buffalo. Which means at long last we have the perfect place to book that Shamrock vs. Taktarov rematch… I should not give Bellator ideas. Any way the light heavyweight title will be on the line. A key match up is set for the middleweights. Who be like the early 90’s Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game and who will be like the early 90’s Bills in the Superbowl?

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Daniel Cormier (c) 18-1 MMA 7-1 UFC vs. Anthony Johnson 22-5 MMA 13-5 UFC- May 23^rd 2015 UFC 187. Just weeks early Jon Jones was stripped of the Light Heavyweight title after a hit and run DUI. For the vacant title the UFC has matched Cormier and Johnson. For both it’s a chance at redemption. Cormier despite a brilliant wrestling career never won a championship in the NCAA or World Championships. He had also missed Olympic team in 2008. Earlier that year Cormier had lost a bitter grudge match when he challenged Jones for the title. Johnson he had been fired from the UFC years earlier after missing weight time again while attempting to compete at lower weight classes. Early on Johnson who is a close to Mike Tyson as MMA has drops Cormier with a powerful over hand right. It looks like Cormier is done. But DC dug deep and was able to recover. Johnson starts to get wild and that lets Cormier start to wrestle. He gets real heavy on Johnson starts beating him up with ground and pound. Going into round two you could tell Johnson’s gas tank was already on E. He lasted another five minutes but in the third another take down this time Cormier starts working for a submission gets the rear naked choke in and wins the title.

Cormier last fought back at UFC 200. It was supposed to be his rematch with Jones, than news breaks that Jones has been flagged by USADA for a banned substance. If you watch UFC Embedded you saw Cormier get so emotional when he found out. He even wanted to sign a wavier and still fight Jones. Instead he was matched up with Anderson Silva and we got a real basic game plan. He took Silva down and held him down. DC has now won three fights in a row since the loss to Jones. Johnson was last booked to fight at UFC 202 in August. He took thirteen seconds to knockout Glovier Treixiera. He is 3-0 since UFC 187. He’s won all three via knockout that said he has not dealt with really good wrestling since Corimer. Manuwa and Trexiera are not wrestlers and Bader only got a really sloppy shot in.

When it comes to the striking it all favors Anthony Johnson. He has sixteen career knockouts and only been knocked out once. The guy has true one shot power if he lands clean he can knockout just about anyone. We saw him nearly knockout Cormier in the first fight. And even if he can’t knock you out he can put a lot of guys into a shell where they are to worried about what is coming to attack. Cormier only has six career knockouts. Now there is no denying he’s got great power but I don’t think anyone wants to trade with Johnson for long. Another issue is Cormier is a much taller man and will also have a five and a half inch reach advantage. DC is mostly a boxer so any striking means he much trade to wade in. DC must have survived once but its like falling off a building do you really want to try it again. Also more and more DC seems more hittaboild he got dropped at UFC 187, he was also nearly knocked out vs. Gufsston and Silva hurt him with body strikes.

Grapping is where Daniel Cormier has a huge advantage. He was much higher level wrestler in the amauture ranks. DC was a division one standout he was on the US national team. Johnson was a junior college wrestler. The problem is why Johnson can wrestle he’s not really doing it. It the curse of that knockout power. He’s putting so much into striking he’s not thinking “Oh I should mix in a takedown.” When it comes to submission its all Cormier. DC has five career submission wins including the first fight with Johnson. Rumble has never won a fight via submission and has been submitted four times in his career. Now since the first fight with Cormier, Johnson has worked on is wrestling he’s even brought in his own coach. Also Cormier has vowed to not wrestle in this fight. That said, I would think DC is all talk when it comes to not wrestling. And we aren’t sure how much Johnson has really improved. Plus you see a pattern when Johnson is takendown its usually the beginning of the end.

Looking at training Cormier is a long time member of the American Kickboxing Academy. Javier Mendez has turned some of the best prospects in MMA into the top fighters in the world. High level guys call that gym home including Cain Velasquez and Luke Rockhold. That have top level striking and grappling coaches. They bring in guys from Glory or Word champion Wrestlers to help in camps. They do high injury rate which you do worry how healthy DC is. Yes I know no fighter is 100% healthy going into the cage but AKA bangs guys up. Johnson has been a member of the Blackzillans but that team appears to be gone. Now he’s worked a lot with Henry Hooft its unclear if Hooft is still with him. Injury risk or not edge goes to Cormier.

One X-factor will be cardio. Johnson is a sprinter. He goes all out hunting the knockout and we have seen a few times in his career as the fight goes or if he is taken down and forced to carry someone he tires out. Its not an issue of not being in great shape but it is a style issue. He’s not going turn a Diaz brother style guy. So edge to Cormier. Activity level is another X-Factor. Johnson has one more fight. But it appears he has been healthier. Cormier was supposed to fight Jones at UFC 197 got hurt didn’t fight. This rematch was booked originally at UFC 206 again Cormier hurt pushing it to now. When you are hurt you are rehabbing not improving. So edge to Johnson.

Can Anthony Johnson land that one big blow and finish the fight before Cormier can get it to the ground? I say he can’t. I think Cormier will go right into wrestle mooed. I think once again he wears Johnson down and gets a submission win. I won’t be shocked if Johnson wins but I just think this fight will a repeat of the first one.

Chris Weidman 13-2 MMA 9-2 UFC vs. Gegard Mousasi 41-6-2 MMA 8-3 UFC- The middleweight division is in a log jam right now. We have two men that both should get a title shot but with the champion dealing with an injury at the start of the year and now booked for a big payday it actually creates a big chance for these two. This gives them a chance to move up the rankings and wind in a position if stuff happens. Maybe Jacare gets upset in his next fight maybe Romero gets hurt. Or hey Maybe Romero or Jacare want to stay busy and the winner winds up in a title eliminator later this year. You just never know what could happen in this division. Hell the current champion had the dominoes fall to get his title shot after a long career.

Mousasi last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. It was a rematch with Uriah Hall. Back in 2015 they Hall had upset Mousasi in a fight. Now since than Mousasi had looked great why Hall had struggled. So there was a real risk and you just never know with a guy like Hall his style and size makes him dangerous. Mousasi though has problems in the rematch. Used his great technical striking to dominate and knocks Hall out right at the end of the first round. The Dutchman has now won four in a row with three straight knockout finishes. On the flip side nothing has gone right for Chris Weidman. 2015 ends with him being destroyed by Luke Rockhold losing his championship and perfect record. He had to pull out of the rematch with an injury. Than in November UFC 205 he gets a chance to fight in New York but he faces off with Yoel Romero. He just mistimes a takedown eats a huge jump knee and is left a bloody mess.

When it comes to striking it a big check mark for Mousasi. He’s got the backround in both boxing and kickboxing even fighting in K-1. He’s got very good technical striking. So he keeps everything in very straight and protects himself well. He’s got a total of twenty two career knockout wins and only been knocked out once. Weidman is more of a brawler. He’s got good power with six career knockouts but also lost both fights his career by knockout. Ray Longo has a good reputation as a coach but Weidman pretty much just like to swing away. Famously at UFC 194 he threw that awful spin kick got taken down because it was so sloppy. So yeah the stand up advantage belongs to Mousasi.

The interesting thing is both men have backgrounds in grappling arts. Mousasi has been training judo since he was a teen and hold a blackbelt in the art form. Weidman was an all American wrestler. Now in terms of MMA Mousasi has twelve career submission win with only three career submission losses. Weidman has three career submission wins and has never been submitted. We don’t really see Mousasis go for takedown its more he will seek to get control once it goes down. I think Weidman is also the stronger man. So I am giving the edge to Weidman in the grappling department.

So looking at training Weidman has spent his entire career at Serra-Longo. Matt Serra and Ray Longo have a lot of experience and took him to a world title. But we have also see that team struggle a lot lately. How much have been able to help Weidman improve or get him over the losses? One thing that should help Weidman is the high level of training partners he has. Both his buddies Gian Villiante and Stephen Thompson had big fights recently and were in camp about the same time. Mousasis has his own team back home. Really it’s worked well for him. Why we may not see the whose who in his training footage no denying he’s had success. So I actually want to say its a draw.

To me the single biggest X-Factor is the mental state. After Mousasis lost that first fight with Uriah Hall he clearly said to himself “No more setbacks. I am going to let it all go.” And he’s looked so great. Meanwhile Weidman didn’t look to hesitant vs. Romero but you wonder after getting knocked like how he was will he be a little more shy on pulling the trigger? To me that says Advantage Mousasis.

It feels like to win Weidman is going to have make it a brawl on the feet and engage in hard scrambles. The problem is I don’t feel Mousasis will brawl unless Weidman really just traps him and even hurts him which is easier said than done. Why Mousasis may not have the wrestling background he’s a very good MMA wrestler and an experienced fighter. I think they goes the distance and Mousasis picks up the decision win.

UFC 209 Picks

After a slow start to the year UFC shifts into high gear. A rematch of a Fight of the Year Contender, a highly anticipated fight years in the making. After much delay a former world champion looks for a new start and a heavyweight don’t blink fight.

UFC Welterweight Championship Tyron Woodley (c) 16-3-1 MMA 6-2-1 UFC vs. Stephen Thompson 13-1-1 MMA 8-1-1 UFC- We waited decades for MMA to arrive in New York City. We only needed to wait for the first co-main event to get the first true classic. The fight between these two had been highly anticipated we thought Thompson was the perfect guy to really give Woodley challenges yet we knew Woodley was no push over and could give Thompson issues. Round one pretty event until Thompson throws a big kick and Woodley catches it and gets the takedown. Rounds two and three Thompson works more of a boxing game plan and Woodley doesn’t wrestle. Round four though Woodley badly hurt Thompson with a punch and gets him in a choke. You are left to wonder what the hell is Thompson’s neck made out of for him to not tap or go out. Round five they are back standing and they go the distance. So we as we wait for the scores to be collected you are going ok was four a 10-8? How much does the takedown in the first count towards winning? Did Thompson do enough to win three rounds? In end the fight was ruled a draw. After some drama with Woodley once again asking for “Money” fights we are getting the rematch.

Both these men have great stand up. Woodley is much more boxing based he often talks about wanting to be like Ali or Tyson. As a result he’s mostly throwing punches and moving on his feet. He’s got great power in those hands. Six career knockouts including finishing Robbie Lawler. He’s only been knocked out once in his career and that was back in 2012 in Strikeforce. Thompson Karate blackbelt undefeated kickboxer. As a result he uses his legs much more. Often in MMA when you are talking about kicks its a round house kick with a few front kicks. Thompson though is throwing side kicks and he spins and he hits a hook or a crescent kick. He has seven career knockouts in MMA including the only man to finish Johnny Hendricks. Now in the past Woodley has issues with kickers that can keep him out of boxing range. That said first fight big key Thompson throws a kick it gets caught and taken down. Also Woodley hurt Thompson with a punch. So what kind of adjustments does Thompson make. If I were his coach I would be telling him “Round 1 we box a lot once we got him used us boxing than we mixing in the kicks.” Not saying Woodley can’t do damage standing up but I still say Thompson is the better striker. I always lean towards the more diverse and experienced striker.

Woodley has the wrestling background he went the Missouri he wrestled and achieved success in some huge tournaments. Thompson doesn’t not have a wrestling background. In his one MMA loss he was taken down and held down. Now we have seen him work on his wrestling greatly since than. He has faced some very good wrestlers like Jake Ellenberger and Johnny Hendricks and not go down. Now Woodley did take him down in the first fight. Part of that was due to a kick being caught and him being hurt. The submission numbers favor Woodley he has five career submission win and Thompson only has one. Also in the first fight Woodley had a deep choke in. Woodley even said a big mistake in the first fight was not wrestling more. Edge goes to him in grappling and he should grapple.

Both these men have a similar approach to training. Both stay close to home and mostly train out of a smaller gym yet they spend time with bigger gyms when they have a fight coming up. It allows them to have the best of both worlds. Focus on them yet also working with elite coaches and fighters. Woodley has his own ATT Midwest Gym. In the past he’s had camp at American Top Team. I’m not sure how often if he even goes to ATT anymore. How ever he started to work a great deal with Duke Rousfus and heads to Roufus Sport. Before the first fight he worked with Sage Northcutt who has a sport Karate background like Thompson. Roufus Sport also has many high level guys. Also Roufus has a great striking background in his own right he can pick up things Thompson does.

Thompson works with Upstate MMA and is mainly coached by his father Ray. Now Ray also has a background as a kickboxer and has been his son’s coach his whole life during his successful career. So it’s not a case of neoptisim. Thompson will also spend time at Serra-Longo he very close with Chris Wediman. Weidman is a great wrestler and we have seen Thompson’s wrestling improve. Both camps have had a lot of success but I think real edge will be Duke Rousfus who might be the best coach in MMA and he will be in Woodley’s corner.

The biggest X-Factor is its a rematch and who does that favor. Many seem to think that is Woodley. Thompson has an unusual style that getting a second look at will really help. Myself I actually think it favors Thompson. If you re-watch the first fight Thompson didn’t throw many kicks after round one. I think if he’s smarter about using them he can really do some damage. Woodley may have gotten a look at Thompson but that also means Thompson now has felt his power knows his timing, understand how he works. The other big X-factor is cardio. We have seen Woodley gas out several times in his career and that is in three round fights. Now he didn’t really gas out in the first fight but he fights in a style that is more likely to cause him to gas out. Robin Black made a great comparison to Wilder saying he’s a sprinter. He jumps in goes as fast and as powerful as he can. But if he starts to miss that power and speed is going to be gone.

I picked Stephen Thompson in the first fight. I gave him three rounds in the first fight. I am picking Thompson once again. I just don’t trust Woodley’s gas tank. I think Thompson style is going to give Woodley problems. I also think Woodley is going to count to much on the idea “I hurt him in the first fight.” Woodley doesn’t wrestle enough anymore. I see Thompson dragging this into the fourth round by than Woodley will be tired and will get knocked out.

Interim UFC Lightweight Championship Khabib Nurmagomedov 24-0 MMA 8-0 UFC vs. Tony Ferguson 22-3 MMA 12-1 UFC- Some people are upset that is for an interim title I say why bitch about getting potentially five rounds with these two. This has been a fight that’s been booked a few times but injures kept causing it be called off. Now we are finally getting it and these guys both believe they are best fighter in the world at lightweight. Nurmaaomedov last fought at UFC 205 in November. He was paired up with Michael Johnson. Early on he was rocked on his feet. However he recovered and one he took Johnson down it was total domination. He landed some crushing ground and pound. Once he had Johnson hurt he locked in kimura and got a submission win. More importantly he fought twice in 16 after missing most of 14 and all of 15 due to injures. Ferguson had fought a week earlier he faced off with former champion Rafael dos Anjos. He made the former champion look second rate. All night he out struck RDA controlled the grappling He’s now won nine in a row.

I don’t think there is any mistake that Ferguson should have the advantage standing up. In terms of KO/TKO’s Ferguson has nine to Khabis’s eight. But all of Khabib’s are ground and pound. Ferguson can do his damage in a kickboxing or boxing exchange. Also Ferguson has a very unorthodox style when it comes to his stand up. Khabib has good stand up but he if there is a flaw in his game its he mostly wants to strike just enough to set up a take down. We also saw him get clipped by Johnson, Ferguson has better power and he’s going to be more diverse.

When it comes to grappling the edge appears to go toNurmajomedov. The man has a long history of wrestling and sambo before his MMA career began. Now in terms of submission numbers win each man has eight. Ferguson has lost once via submission but that was way back in 2009 before his UFC career got started. Now I would say that Freguson is the better BJJ guy. He’s very tricky much like his stand up his does things you don’t expect. He’s also very good off his back. That said Nurmajomedov has amazing control on the ground it’s almost like he’s a middleweight holding down smaller guys. Also Nurmagomedov has very good submissions and should be able to protect himself. Edge to the Russian Eagle.

In terms of training Khabib trains in Russia but he also spends time with AKA. He’s just not just some homer in Russia he’s got a good young growing team over with guys that are reaching the UFC or Bellator or WSOF. AKA one of the best teams in MMA. Freguson mixes it up he works he one of the last guys traveling a bit more where his Boxing is one place, his kickboxing is another and BJJ is across town. I like when guys keep there training in really only one (or in Khabib’s case two) camps. So edge to Nurmajomedov.

The biggest X-factor to me is who is more worried about Conor McGregor. The winner is supposed to face Connor. Ferguson we see get riled up he calls Conor a few different names but than he also seems pretty laid back. Numbarmodov was so worried about Conor he was yelling to Dana White about him during the Johnson fight. Tony comes off like he’s almost going to enjoy trash talking with Conor. Khabib seems like he’s pissed Conor isn’t bowing down to him. If you look past anyone you can pay. Edge to Ferguson. The other big x-factor is simply recent work. Nurmagomedov dealt with a lot of injures the last few years. Since coming back he beat an over matched guy who on short notice and than looked shaky Johnson. Ferguson had one bad scare but has looked so strong lately. He’s shown so much improvement why we really haven’t seen Nurmagamedov appear to improve. Edge Ferguson.

I am picking Tony Ferguson to win this. I think he’s on a roll that should be getting more hype. I think he will flow in the striking be able to keep it competitive in the grappling. The longer is goes he will show superior cardio. I think by the fourth round He will stop hurt Khabib get it to the ground and submit him.

Rashad Evans 19-5-1 MMA 14-5-1 UFC vs. Dan Kelly 12-1 MMA 5-1 UFC- Is the third time the charm for Evans Middleweight debut? For those that don’t know Evan was set to face Tim Kennedy at UFC 205 than the New York commission saw something on an MRI they didn’t like. So the fight was rebooked for UFC 206 and the Ontario commission said they wouldn’t let him fight. We Nevada apparently has given him the all clear. Evans last actually fought in April on a FOX network card. He lost in less than two mintues when Glover Teixira knocked him out. It was the second knockout loss of career. It was also his second straight loss. Since returning from a leg injury it seems Evans has lost a great death of the athleticism that was his trademark and greatest advantage over man. Kelly last fought in November at a UFC Fight Night. He beat Chris Camozzi. He used his Judo to control the fight and get a decision win. He’s now won three wins in a row since he’s lone career loss.

The power numbers favor Evans. He has eight career knockout wins and Kelly only has three. Kelly’s lone career loss is via knockout. Evans only has two knockout losses in a much longer career. Evans will also have a two inch reach advantage. Evans should be able to control this fight standing up even if he is reduced in the spring he used to have.

Grappling should be where Kelly has an advantage. He has a long back round of Judo. Four times he was part of Australia's judo team. Now Evans does have back round as a wrestler. But as his MMA career has gone on he wrestles less and less. Also I don’t know how many guys in MMA really have gotten used to judo because when we thinking takedown a lot of it’s wrestling based. Numbers wise it says advantage Kelly as Evans only has one submission win. Kelly has give but Kelly has far fewer fights so he has a pretty good rate. So if they do tie up it could be a rougher than expected night for Evans.

In terms of training its kind of strange. Evans was a founding member of the Blackzillians that team is pretty much gone. Henry Hooft has opened his own gym but it’s not clear if Evans is there. Evans has also been training with Vitor Belfort at Belfort’s own gym. Kelly is with Resilience Training Center in Austrila. So it appears Evans could be training with more renowned coaches and higher level training partners. But it’s not clear how stable that is. So I am leaning towards Kelly.

Looking at X-Factors its not an issue of age but simple who appears to have had the harder miles on the odomator. Evans is two years younger but has been dealing with a bad leg injury. Now his style is do dependent on being able to get off first have that quick step and explode into his strikes and take downs. He’s 37 and most athletes would be in trouble already in terms of a decline. Now he’s got added issue of the leg problem and when you blow out a leg like he did you may never be the same. Kelly is older it seems his style works better for an older fighter.

This is a case of match making that either way give the UFC a positive spin. If Kelly wins it’s “He just beat a former world champion.” If Evans wins it’s “Evans just beat a tough fighter with a great record.” So which is more likely? I just feel Evans is done. I think the inures and just natural aging have taken him out of the sport and Kelly will grind out a decision win.

Alistair Overeem 41-15 1 NC MMA 6-4 UFC vs. Mark Hunt 12-10-1 1 NC UFC- This is actually a rematch. Way back in 2008 in Dream these two fought in MMA which saw The Reem win via submission. Since than a lot has happened. Both men have has ups down and battles in and out of the cage. Hunt last fought in July at UFC 200. At first it was a loss to Brock Lesnar how ever that has been over turned to a no contest when Brock failed two PED tests. Before that Hunt was on a two fight winning streak but both wins were against Bigfoot Silva and Frank Mir who aren’t really top level guys anymore. Before that he had been mauled by Miocic and than KO’ed by Werdum. Overeem last fought in September at UFC 204. He challenged Stipie Miocic for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Early on he hurt the champion with a body kick and than dropped him with a big punch before getting him in a guillotine. However Miocic escaped than we saw Overeem fight really stupid. He was running around the cagehad really lazy defense. He was throwing wild wide punches. Than he threw a really lazy side kick. Easily he got taken down and Miocic knocked him out with group and pound. Before that he was on a three fight winning streak with three knockouts.

Both these men are known for there striking. Both men were the K-1 grand prix champion. But we have different styles. Hunt very much about the power punches with a crushing leg kick. Reem more of the Dutch Style Thai Boxer working in boxing with hard brutal knees. So you say Reem is the more diverse striker. In MMA Overeem has eighteen career knockout but he has also been knocked out ten times. In kickboxing he has seven KO wins but three KO losses. Hunt in MMA he has nine career knockouts with four knockouts. In kickboxing he has 13 career KO win with only two losses but Hunt has more kickboxing fights. Both men are able to damage you when they land one strike. In a case like this I am looking at at the defense. Reem has has man moment where he’s just looked so sloppy. When he fought Bigfoot was lazy got KO’ed, vs. Browne got cocky dropped his hands got KO’ed, vs Rothwell he left the guard opened KO’ed. And well last time out. Hunt only needs one chance to hit you to end the night. Advantage Hunt.

Anytime you have two high level strikers the ground game could be the key. Huge numbers advantage for Overeem when it comes to the ground game. He has nineteen career submission wins against two submission loses. No the Reem has not scored a submission wins since 2009 but we did see him go for one last time out. Hunt never scored a submission win and has six career submission losses. That said Hunt has worked a great deal on his ground game since coming to the UFC. He has not been submitted since 2010. Another key will be the wrestling. The fighters that give Hunt a lot of problems are usually very strong wrestlers. Reem really doesn’t have the wrestling. Reem will have the edge but it might be hard for him to get the fight to the ground. He can and will use trips but he will have to time those very well.

Looking at training Overeem is another fighter splitting time. He has a team in the Netherlands but than does camps at Jackson Winkeljohn. We know how good that team is. He really looked great with them. It seemed until the Miocic fight they kept some Overeem’s bad habits under control. Hunt mainly trains at home in Australia. So I have to give the edge to Overeem. He’s got the best team in the world.

One big X-Factor will be where is Mark Hunt’s head at. Going into UFC 200 he said fully aware that Brock Lesnar’s USADA window had been waved. He was also going around saying “I know Brock is on steroids I will just knock him out.” Yet than he lost originally and than the failed test came out. He started demanding a release and all of Brock’s purse. He than refused to take fight. And is now saying he had to take this fight. He’s also warning Reem not to fail a drug test. If he’s more worried about all of this it could really cost him. So advantage Overeem. Now another X-Factor is something I have already talked about and that is Overeem habits to get sloppy. Against someone like Mark who time and again has show the ability to hit that over hand right and knock someone out cold its to big a risk.

During his reality show Overeem pointed out that every fight for a heavyweight at this level is 50 50. Frankly I think Overeem is the better fighter. But I just have this vision of him getting to cocky and than bang overhand right. Still though I am going to pick Overeem. He is more diverse as a striker and he’s taller. He could also take Hunt off his game by just threatening to take it to the ground. I think Reem can wear Hunt down enough to get a third round TKO.