UFC 207 Pick

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Amanda Nunes (c) 13-4 MMA 6-1 UFC vs. Ronda Rousey 12-1 MMA 6-1 UFC- And we are finally here. After over a year of speculation, questions, will she won’t she Ronda Rousey is back. Amanda Nunes has claimed the title and will look to be the first champion besides Rousey to defend. Leading up the fight everyone is playing psychologist trying to read Ronda’s mind and her motivations. The simple truth is we won’t know until she fights. Now we all know the last time she fought it was UFC 193 in November of last year. She was matched up with Holly Holm and well she got knocked out in the second round. But I think a lot of people forget how the fight went. If you watch it you see Ronda made some mistakes she was not just beat up nonstop for entire fight. And well frankly Holm with her boxing, footwork, and kicks are a bad match up for Ronda. Nunes last fought at UFC 200 in July. She walked into the biggest event in company history (at the time) and dominated the very tough Miesha Tate. Hurt her standing took her down and than submitted her. She’s on a great run winning four in a row.

Well everyone knows Nunes is just going to knock Ronda out… Kidding aside Nunes does have a striking advantage. She has nine career knockout wins Ronda only has three. Nunes has been knocked out twice both times though a lot of it had to do with her getting tired. Rousey was knocked out in her last fight. So we also have the mental issue of how she takes getting back in the fire this time. Nunes also has more technical striking. Ronda throws big looping punches and she does have a habit of turning her head when hit. That said don’t expect this to be the Holm fight take two. Nunes is different than Holm. She uses more brawling and round house kicks as opposed to Holm who is a boxer with great front and side kicks. Still though Ronda won’t want to take to many shots standing because Nunes has that get hit once and it hurts style power.

The grappling could be very interesting. Ronda won a bronze medal in Judo at the Olympics she is a fourth degree black belt in the art. Nunes has a BJJ black belt and also has a brown in Judo. That said she never had a pure grappling level of experience that Ronda has had. Ronda has nine career submission wins and Nunes has three. Nunes is the only one to be submitted between the two. Nunes won’t be easy on the ground due to her background. But we have seen Ronda usually dominate great wrestlers and BJJ black belts in the past. I’m not sure how active Nunes is in training Judo. So if this fight goes to the ground I think it’s Ronda’s to take.

Training its a clear no contest advantage for Nunes. She is a member of American Top Team. You can’t praise that camp enough in my opinion. So many great talent trains down there. They have top level coaches. Ronda remains with Edmund Tarverdyan who might be the worse coach I have ever seen. I think I have heard with out Ronda he has a losing record in the UFC. And we have seen Travis Brown, Jake Ellenberger, Jessaym Duke, and Shayna Bazler struggle under him. When Ronda was in trouble at UFC 193 he seemed to have no idea what to do and last time out at UFC 203 when Browne was losing he was going insane and than got into with Werdum after the fight. Ronda does have other coaches but so long as she’s loyal to the head GFC I worry about her.

The biggest X-factor is where is Ronda’s head at? She was so dominate for so long and than it just stops and its violent. She loses and so many people took joy in mocking her. She even admits to being suicidal after the fight. It could be the flip side though. Ronda is a very emotional person. When she wins she jumps for joy and celebrates nonstop. Also I think people forget Ronda has lost before. She had numerous losses in Judo and came back stronger. Another X-Factor is Ronda has been out of the cage. Normally I like a more active fighter. But I think the time off might be good for Ronda. Most has said “She isn’t fighting because of Holm...” Forgetting Ronda had said before UFC 193 she was taking time off. I don’t think any fighter went harder than Ronda during that three year run.

I am picking Ronda Rousey. I think way to many people have forgotten just how good she is. Nunes is not Holly Holm and in a number of ways she plays into Ronda’s strengts more than Holm ever will. Don’t get me wrong Nunes has fighting changing power. Ronda needs to be careful. Also Nunes is not bulletproof. A recurring issue for her is if she doesn’t get a quick win she gets tired. I think Ronda will go back to being very Judo heavy for this fight and get a submission win.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Championship Dominick Cruz (c) 23-1 MMA 5-0 UFC vs. Cody Brandt 10-0 MMA 5-0 UFC- The more things change the more they stay the same. Dominick Cruz facing a young up and comer but he’s also facing an Alpha Male guy. Realistically TJ Dillishaw should be getting rematch. But Garbrandt made it a point to keep calling Cruz out he got in his face backstage. He made this an issue and made it a fight people want to see. Also Cruz wanted this fight. Cruz last fought at UFC 199 in June. It was the third fight with Urijah Faber. The Deliminator Dominated. He hurt Faber several times he took him down. Once and for all he ended the feud. Garbrandt last fought in August at UFC 202 he knocked out Takeya Mizguaki in forty eight seconds.

The numbers give a clear power edge to Gardbrandt he’s has nine career knockout wins in only ten fights. Cruz has seven in twenty four career fights. When Garbrandt hits people they go down hard and don’t get back up. Striking is much more than just power. Cruz has some of the best footwork in MMA and he’s very unusual on his feet. As Cruz often says “I don’t get hit.” Cruz again has unusual movement so it might be hard for Garbrandt to get a read him to land a strike. Add into that Cruz will have three more inches of reach. And we know Cruz is not the type to fight stupid I have to give him the edge with the stand up.

Both men do have wrestling back round. Numbers don’t really say we will get much ground fighting. Cruz only has one submission win in his career. His lone career loss was via submission. Garbrandt has never recorded a submission in his MMA career. In there careers we have seen Cruz much more willing to mix in his wrestling with striking. Garbrandt always leading to his fights want to talk about knocking guys out. So advantage to Cruz.

Training Cruz is a member of Alliance MMA. Gardbrandt is part of team Alpha Male. Both are upper level camps with tons of big fight experience. I gotta give the edge to Cruz. One Alliance has always had one head coach in Eric Delfario. Alpha Male in the last years had Ludwig, than it was Kampman and now it’s Buckholdz. Both camps have a lot experience against each other. But Cruz has beaten everyone out of that camp and he’s done it time and again.

The biggest X-factor to me is experience level. Cruz has many more fights and he has many more fight against elite high level competition. Cruz has beat Faber twice, Dillishaw, he’s the last man to beat Demetrius Johnson. Gardbrandt’s biggest win was over Mizugaki a fighter that appears to really be on the decline. He’s very untested so what happen when Gardbrandt doesn’t just land a big shot and knock the guy out. We don’t know I his power will hold up against elite fighters. The other big X-Factor is mental warfare. Cruz may not be McGregor with the million dollar lines that get replayed every where. But the guy puts on his opponents. He has no problem mocking or insulting anyone. Gardbrandt kept calling him out but he’s now getting really wound up. He was snapping during that face to face during UFC on Fox. You can’t fight stupid and Cruz gets people to fight stupid.

This is not a hard pick for me. Cruz has every advantage. So much of what led to this fight was Gradbrandt willingness to talk and the fact Cruz’s sees this as a fight he can win and earn some good money. I think Cruz will draw this out we will see Gardbrandt forced to go late. It will be a decision win for Cruz.

TJ Dillashaw 13-3 MMA 9-3 UFC vs. John Lineker 29-7 MMA 9–2 UFC- Key fight in the bantamweight division. You have in Dilliashaw a former world champion who remains a top contender. Linkeker has been on the verge of a title shot for a while and one big impressive win could be what locks it up for him. Dillishaw last fought in July at UFC 200. He was facing Raphael Assuncao a fighter who had beat him in the past but many felt it was a bad judge’s call. This time Dillashaw got the win. Another good strong performance by Dillashaw doing what he does best lots of good movement with effective striking. Lineker last fought in October. It was a main event fight against John Dodson. Both men are known for there power but some thought Dodson’s speed would be the advantage. Linker though manged to land some big shots and got a split decision win.

Striking is pure one shot power vs. movement and technique that leads to knockouts. Linker is a power puncher he looks to brawl he had that ability to change a fight after landing a single strike. He has 13 career knockouts and has never been knocked out in his MMA career. Dillashaw only has six career knockouts. Dillashaw though much more of a technical fighter. Since hooking up with Bang Ludwig he has become one of the best users of movement in the entire sport. When he is on the attack he is always cutting an angle taking himself out of the pocket of the fight. His one and only knockout loss was very early in his career. You can’t afford to let Lineker land that one shot but Dillishaw’s style is going to make it very hard to land that one shot. We saw Dillishaw dismantel Renan Barrao twice and standing up this fight could a remake of those two fights. So edge Dillishaw.

When it comes to grappling Dillishaw has the wrestling background doing it all the way through college. He also very good at mixing up his wrestling rather it be with a takedown or even getting the fight against the cage. Lineker not really much of a wrestler he is looking to brawl. Dillishaw has three career wins and has never been submitted in his career. Lineker has four career submission career but also three losses. The guy willing to grapple is the one I give the advantage to Dillishaw.

Training Dillishaw is a member of Team Elevation. A fairly new team but has grown very quickly. He’s also a former member of Team Alpha Male and some of those guys still train with him. On top of that Dillishaw regularly trains with Bang Ludwig who is his head corner man. Lineker is a member of American Top Team. Very good training camp. Overall I think ATT is the better team. But again the edge I think goes to Dillishaw because it appears he and Lugwig have a special connection and that point of perfect coach perfect student.

One big X-Factor could be the weigh in. Linker has missed weight numerous times in his UFC career to the point he was forced to move up from flyweight to bantamweight. Than last time out he misses weight again against Dodson. By all accounts the UFC is reluctant to give him a title shot because in a title fight you have to make weight and don’t get an extra pound. Now in interview Linker has said he will make weight. But we just won’t know until he gets on the scale. And if he has a tough cut a guy like Dillishaw would be a nightmare to fight. The other X-Factor to me is where is Dillishaw’s head at. He started 2016 losing the title in a very close match with Cruz. He feels he should have gotten an automatic rematch. He didn’t and saw Faber get a title shot. So he fought at UFC 200 won again thinking he should get the next shot and he’s watching Garbrandt. If he’s looking past this fight or gets to caught up in wanting a knockout to impresses he could leave himself open.

This pick can tough to make. Because the kind of power Linker has just changes the equation so quick. Dillishaw doesn’t have perfect defense he does eat shots. That said guys who chase the knockout can tire out quickly. With the edges he has in tehiccal striking and his use of wrestling I think Dillishaw can tire Lineker out. I see a tired Lineker getting knocked out by Killihsaw in the third round.

UFC on Fox Picks

Paige VanZant 7-2 MMA 4-1 UFC vs. Michelle Waterson 13-4 MMA 1-0 UFC- Fighting can a strange thing. You have that fighter that a lot of people know but there are questions about how good they really are. Or you can have that fighter not that man people know but those that know him or her will tell you how great they are. Paige VanZant is a superstar. She was getting pushed to the top right away and than she does Dancing With The Stars and gains all these new fans. On the flip side you have Michelle Waterson a former champion in Invicta but not someone a causal fan knows. Paige VanZant last fought in August at the previous UFC on Fox Card. That was a very important fight for her. She was coming off a very one sided loss in her last fight. Than she did DWTS and had all these new fans. She was matched up with Bec Rawlings. A talented fighter but a winnable fight for her. Really had she lost you know every critic would have come out saying “She should have worried about fighting over dancing… The UFC is just looking for a hot blonde.” She actually changed up her style. Most her fights VanZant like to swarm in and try to overwhelm her opponent. This fight she kept out at range more. Early on she really had some issues got clipped a few times but found her timing and distance and set Rawlings up before landing a jumping round house kick that knocked out Rawlings. Waterson last fought in July of 2015 at the TUF 21 Finals. She fought Angela Magana. Now Magana doesn’t not have a great record but shes been in a lot of fights. Waterson submitted her in the third. Since than injures have kept her out of the cage.

Neither fighter has a high number of knockouts yet. Waterson only has three knockouts with one KO loss. VanZant has two but has never been knocked out. Now Watereson has a background in Karate and Wushu which gives her some different style striking over the kickboxing VanZant does. We did see Rose Namajunas who is similar to Watereson really trouble VanZant. Last fight again we saw VanZant change her striking up. She was getting clipped early on but now she’s had more time learn. VanZant will also have a three inch reach advantage that should help in boxing exchanges. As I think the height of Rawlings played a factor last time. That said it appears to be a gap I think the edge goes to Waterson.

Numbers seem to really back up Waterson on the ground. She has eight career submissions only tapped out herself twice. PVZ only has two career submission wins with one submission loss. Both are ranked as blue belts in BJJ. One factor that might help VanZant on the ground is we have seen her give great second effort when grappling. A lot of people they try once and just give up thinking “oh well not gong to work.” She seems to always keeps trying when she goes for a takedown. We saw that especially in the Felice Herring fight where it allowed her to wind up on top or wind up getting the takedown. Still the number say I should give the edge to Waterson.

Both fighters train with elite camps. Waterson trains with Jackson Winkeljohn. Paige VanZant is a member of Alpha Male. Both camps are known for having high level training partners and great coaches. I will call this even. Waterson seems to have more female training partners but VanZant lives full time by her gym while Waterson does more of a camp where she travels to the gym but lives in another state so how much she trains with Jackson Winkeljohn is less.

Looking at the X-Factors one simply comes to down to Potential vs. Prime. Waterson is 30 and has had seventeen career fights. At this stage for the most part she is the fighter she is. We aren’t likely to see her show this new aspect of her game. VanZant is 22 only nine career fights. She is still young and getting better. She might just do something we don’t know she can do. Hell again just last fight dong more range fighting. I gotta give the edge to VanZant on this. Mainly because there is that chance Waterson and her team are ready for something and than don’t see what is really coming. The other X-Factor is size. Waterson has had a lot of success but most of it came at Antomweight 105 lbs. UFC does not offer that weight class. Vanzant will have the reach and height advantage. She has fought Strawweight 115 lbs in the past. But I think again edge goes to VanZant.

Another X-Factor will be the extra stuff that goes into doing main events. Waterson has been set for five rounds 3 times but never gone the distance while VanZant only once she lost in the final round. Edge to Waterson in that I think training for it more will help her even if she hasn’t gone it. However while this isn’t a huge event there is extra commitments for a main event. Waterson has main evented smaller shows. Is she going to be used stuff like Road to the Octagon? Extra TV appearances? VanZant has gotten very used to it since every fight she been in has been a lot of press. Final X-Factor to me is activity level. Waterson hasn’t fought in over a year she also dealt with injures. VanZant has three fights in that time. Even while doing DWTS she was still training MMA. A lot of fighters need some time to shake off the rust. Even if it just takes a round or two that could still be huge so edge VanZant.

The fight is really a question of can the ever improving VanZant improve enough to close the gaps on Waterson? While VanZant has potential advantages in some areas the real keys to me always come down to the striking and grappling. VanZant might wind up being better than Waterson some day? But for right now I am picking Waterson to get a decision win.

Urijah Faber 33-10 MMA 9-6 UFC vs. Brad Pickett 25-12 MMA 5-7 UFC- For one of MMA’s most popular fighter the end has arrived. For the final time California Love will play as Urijah Faber walks to an Octagon. He wanted one more fight and the show taking place in Sacramento made it perfect. Brad Pickett was handpicked for this fight. It’s a battle of two long term vets. Pickett has the power to ruin the party. Faber last fought at UFC 203 in September. It might has have been the worse performance of his career. He lost an extremely one sided decision Jimmie Rivera. Rivera out struck him he out wrestled him. It felt like the only things Faber landed with eye pokes and lowbrows. It easy to see why he is getting ready to retire. He’s lost two in row both and why not stopped he never really got going in either fight. Pickett was last in action at UFC 204 in October. He lost via submission to Iuri Alcantara. Just another case of a younger fighter blowing though a veteran fighter. Pickett has lost four of five.

Pickett is nicknamed One Punch and has a reputation for one shot KO’s. But both men are tied with seven career knockout wins. Although some of Faber’s come off ground and pound along with at least two doctor’s stoppages. Pickett has two career knockout losses. Faber has three. Both fighters are older and have take some real punishments putting hard miles on the body. And both has looked a little more chinny at this stage. Faber seems to be a little more technical but very predictable. Pickett like to slug it out. I will give a slight edge to Pickett.

Faber has the wrestling background he made the NCAA tournament twice while at UC Davis in college. Pickett like many European fighters from his generation had no back round in wrestling. That doesn’t mean he can’t get things done on the ground. While known for his power striking Pickett actually has ten career submission wins. But he hasn’t scored a submission since 2012. He also has five career submission losses. Faber though has nineteen career submission wins and has never submitted. Faber should be able to this to the ground. Pickett might give him a challenge once they are down there but still the edge goes to Faber.

Training camps for both men are among the best. Faber if the Alpha Male of Alpha Male. He was the founder and has so much control over who trains with it and who coaches it. In the past he’s worked with great coaches and has a solid staff now. Pickett is a member of American Top Team. Another high level team currently has several former or current world champions. It’s brought in elite coaches. Slight edge to Faber here based on the fact Alpha Male is known for having great smaller fighters around him while with ATT not clear how many upper level guys below 170 there is.

The biggest X-Factor is retirement. Faber is retiring after this fight. Often when it comes to situations like this you wonder how much is he head in THIS fight. Knowing that there is no more titles or big main events to come do you do all the work. Pickett has admitted he’s close to the end as well. But he also knows a win here would put him in a good place. So edge Pickett.

Its pretty clear Pickett was picked for this fight so Faber would not just get beat up by a younger highly ranked fighter. Or so Faber wouldn’t derail a prospect. Pickett is dangerous but as much as Faber has declined the last few years, Pickett has declined so much more. I think Faber will look to get this to the ground early and often he will wear Pickett down and submit him.

Sage Northcutt 8-1 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Mickey Gall 3-0 MMA 2-0 UFC- Its the looking for the fight championship. Northcutt was found on the first episode and Gall on the second. Both are very young and have huge upsides. They are fighting at high levels very early on. Northcutt last fought at UFC 200 he beat Enrque Marin via decision. Now he was coming his first career loss he needed to rebound in that fight. It was not an easy for him he had to keep digging and crawling to get the win. End of the day he got it. Gall last fought at UFC 203 in September. It was the fight he called for it was against CM Punk. Right away he takes him down works him over gets a submission. Gall than made the challenge for this fight.

I can’t really break this down like I would normal fights. Because there is such little actual info on either guy. Just using the eyeball test and the little info I have I will say Norhcutt has the striking advantage. He’s got a karate background so he can use some unusual strikes we don’t see often. He also appears to be have very good hand speed. Gall appears to have more of the straight kickboxer/boxer style and has two career knockouts. But again with only three fights I’m not really sure. On the ground I would say Gall. If there is an area Gall appears to specialize in its BJJ. With Northcutt we saw him not only get submitted but look a bit lost at times on the ground. Training Gall works with the Miller brother gym one with a good rep but fairly new. Northcutt’s head coach is his dad that doesn’t always work well. But in the past he’s worked with Tri-Star and recently was up with Tyroon Wooldey at Rufous Sport. That could aid him greatly so I saw draw.

X-factors well Gall its a welterweight fight. Gall appears to be the more natural welterweight as he’s taller and bigger. But so far Gall has been able to walk right into the cage and dominate with ease. In terms of pro fight’s only got about six minutes of cage time. Northcutt has more cage time and know understands what it’s like to have to deal with surviving. So that would be his edge. What happens if Gall gets tagged or he can’t find his rhythm and starts to force things. Northcutt can draw on being rocked and think “Don’t do that like I did in that fight...” So advantage Nortcutt.

Again tough fight to pick. It really could come down to the gut. Or in my case what pick can I throw in fans faces. For what ever reason people don’t like Northcutt so I am picking him.

UFC 206 Pick

Interim UFC Featherweight Max Holloway 16-3 MMA 12-2 UFC vs. Anthony Pettis 19-5 MMA 6-4 UFC- All of a sudden the featherweight division is wide open. McGregor has given up the championship after winning the title at 155. Jose Aldo has been promoted back to full champion but says he will never fight for the title again. Along with the injury to Daniel Cormeir this is now an interim title fight. Holloway last fought at UFC 199 in June. He beat Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision pretty one sided fight. Didn’t seem like Holloway was in real danger at any point he was just the better fighter than Lamas. He’s got an amazing nine fight winning streak. Pettis last fought at UFC on Fox in August he manged to beat Charles Oliveria via guillotine submission. That snapped a three fight losing streak. It was also his featherweight debut.

Both these men are known for there striking. The number are very close in terms of power. Pettis seven career knockouts and six for Holloway. Both men have never been knocked out. Pettis has the longer reach with two and a half more inches. Pettis is also the guy more known for throwing really spectacular kicks. To this day we all remember the showtime kick on Henderson. That said we have seen Pettis out struck at key times. His loss to RDA he got rocked early never recovered and in the loss to Edson Barboza it was mostly a kickboxing fight. A kickboxing fight he didn’t win. Holloway has great technique a good chin. I am actually calling this a draw in the stand up.

Pettis might be the most underrated submission fighter in MMA. We always think of his striking but he has nine career submission wins and has beat some BJJ blackbelts with them. Pettis has also never been submitted in his career. Holloway only has two career submission wins and he has one career submission loss. That said time and again Pettis has shown he can beat out wrestled. It was key in four of his career losses. He was either taken down or pushed against cage and could not strike. Now Pettis has trained with the highly respected Izzy Martinez. Also Holloway not really known for his wrestling doesn't’ appear to have a wrestling background. So I am giving the grappling edge to Pettis.

Holloway trains out of Hawaii. He is the biggest name out of that team. Now he’s had a lot of success with that team. We have also seen him grow as a fighter a great deal. Pettis is a long standing member of Roufusport. As he often says I have been with Duke Roufus I was kid. That is an upper level team hes’ got all kinds of UFC vets in there with him. Roufus was a great kickboxer and is viewed as an elite trainer. Last fight he also went to Jackson Winkeljohn. Haven’t heard about him doing that for this camp though. I still got to give the edge to Pettis in this department.

The weight cut is a X-Factor on this fight. We did see Pettis start to slow down in his featherweight debut. He’s making his second cut for this fight. Now on the one hand he’s going to used to it. On the other hand he’s still talking about going to going back to 155. And it could be no matter what those ten extra pounds will always be tough. Holloway is used to it advantage him. Other X-factor is confidence. Holloway is on the best run of his career. Pettis is coming off the worse run of his career. And in my opinion with Pettis if things don’t go well he kind of checks out. So to me advantage Holloway.

My pick is for Holloway. At this point you need to be something really special to convince anyone you can beat that guy. I think he’s able to drag this into the second and third rounds. I think Pettis will start to slow and lose confidence. I think it will be close enough it will be a split decision but Holloway take the win.

Donald Cerrone 31-7 1 NC MMA 16-4 UFC vs. Matt Brown 20-15 MMA 13-9 UFC- This is one of those fights you hear about and just go “FUCK YEAH!” You are thinking not only fight of the night maybe fight of the year. These are two guys who are so loved by fans. You be hard pressed to name a boring fight either guy has ever had. Cerrone last fought at UFC 202 in August. He was matched up with Rick Story. Story is one of those tough long term UFC fighters. Cerrone just handled him. He finished the fight with a perfect combination. He hurt Story to the point that he got him to spin away and when he came back around Cerrone timed it so he could still punch him and knock him out. Cowboy is 3-0 since moving up to welterweight. Brown last fought at UFC 201 in July. He was facing Jake Ellenberger. Going into that fight it had come out that Ellenberger had been cut and had to beg the UFC for one more fight. Brown was saying going into the fight it would be Jake’s last fight. Right away Brown take an over hand right that knocked him flat on his ass. If its anyone but Matt Brown the fight would been called off. Brown though manages to recover and start mounting offense than he eats a body kick that hurts him badly and Ellenberger wins.

Both these men are known to bang it out on the feet. Cerrone not only has been a top level MMA fighter but has boxed as a pro and fought kickboxing and Muay Thai in the past. He’s got great kicks he can crush the legs he can destroy the body, or go up high and KO you to head. His boxing is solid. Brown is more of a brawler but don’t sleep on his ability to turn it into a brawl. Number seem to back Brown power wise he has 12 career knockouts and only Ellenerberger has ever KO’ed him. We have seen rocked a few times but he usually recovers. Cerrone has seven knockouts and been knocked out twice. Brown will have boxing reach advantage but like I said Cerrone has really good kicks. I am giving the edge Cerrone. If it turns into a brawl he can hang with Brown. But his more technical style should carry the day. Brown also gets hurt a lot on body kicks and Cerrone is very accurate.

To me there is no contest in the grappling side of things. Cerrone has always been known for a great ground game. He will often hurt a guy standing and take him down. If you are on the ground with Cerrone you are SOL. The man has sixteen career submission wins. He’s only been submitted once and that was back in the WEC. Brown only has six career submission wins even scoring on in his last win over Tim Means. But he also has ten career submission losses. With those numbers how can I now say Cerrone has the advantage on the mat?

Looking at training Brown just moved out to Team Elevation in Denver. Its a new camp but has stated to attract some good guys. That said its a fairly recent change and sometimes it takes a few fights to really gel with a team. Cerrone long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. He’s always going to have upper level talent to work with. He also does a lot training out of his own ranch but you hear stories of guys going to ranch to train with him. To me edge is Cerrone’s.

One X-Factor is Cerrone was supposed to fight at UFC 205. Kelvin Gastulum missed weight badly the fight was canceled by the NYSAC. Even though he didn’t fight he went through a camp and cut weight. This really is a short notice. That said Cerrone is the king of coming in late or on short notice. There is a good chance he asks to fight UFC 207 after this. The biggest X-Factor to me when you have two long term veterans like this is which one looks more shot. At this stage that appears to Brown. A few years ago Brown went on a winning streak got to a title eliminator fight. But he’s lost four of his last five. Brown has put a lot of hard miles on his body taking a lot of damage in his career. Cerrone meanwhile looks refused at a higher weight. He’s made changes to his training where doesn’t spar and get into total gym wars. Both are edge to Cerrone. But there is one final X-Factor that favors Brown. With Matt Brown you can just never count him out. Rather it be during a fight or his career. Brown goes into this fight knowing his back is against the wall he might just put on a great performance.

That said my pick is Donald Cerrone. I think a good technical striker will be able to hurt Brown. I don’t like how easy it to hurt Brown to the body. Add into this ground game Cerrone is just way to much for Brown. I think it will take a little time but late in the second we will Brown get hurt. Cerrone will get the fight to the ground. The Cowboy will lock in a submission and pick up another win at a 170 pounds.

Tim Kennedy 18-5 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Kelvin Gastelum 12-2 MMA 7-2 UFC- It was a strange path to get this fight. Both men were set to fight at UFC 205 Kennedy against Rashad Evans and Gastelum against Donald Cerrone. Than the state of New York refused to let Evans fight due to an issue on his MRI but he says it’s them being to cautious. The fight was rebooked than Canada said Evans couldn’t fight. Gastelum who has struggled with weight during his career was going to miss badly some say as much as ten pounds. He never weighed in fight was called off. On top of that for not weighing in Gastelum was suspended by the state of New York but it’s a different kind of suspsnein than usual so as long as the Provence in Canada says he can fight he can. Dana White says Gastelum is done at welterweight they will never book him there again. Kennedy has not fought since September 2014. It was the infamous stool gate fight with Yoel Romero. He had rocked Romero badly as the second round ended. Romero did all he could to drag out the round break basically refusing to stand up. Kennedy felt he should have won a technical knockout. The fight went on and Romero recovered to knock Kennedy out. Since than he has pursed outside interest. Gastelum last fought UFC 200 he won a decision over Johnny Hendricks. Fairly one sided fight biggest name win of his career.

Neither guy really known as a knockout artiest. Kennedy has six career knockouts. In his last three fights he did show good power, he knocked out Natal, buzzed Bisping, and had Romero hurt. He’s also only been knocked out twice. Gastelum has four career knockouts. He’s never been knocked out and to his credit has been in there with some big punchers. Kennedy will have a three inch reach advantage. Although Gastelum style is very pressure heavy if he can get in I think he has a slight edge on Kennedy.

Grappling the numbers say it’s Kennedy’s edge. He has eight career submission wins he’s a BJJ blackbelt. Gastelum has four career submission wins. Nietehr man has ever been submitted. I would say Kennedy has fought the better level of submission fighters. So I am giving this to Kennedy as I think he’s a littler trickier on the ground and should be able to survive anything Gastelum tries down there.

Training Kennedy is a long time member of Jackson Winkeljohn. Many call that the best gym in MMA. Gastelum trains out a gym in Yuma Arizona his home town. He’s the biggest name out of that gym. Kennedy has world class guys around him at all times. We know how good Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn are are breaking down fighters. I don’t know if Gastelum has anything close to that. Clear edge Tim Kennedy.

The biggest X-Factors are weight. Gastelum is not a middleweight fighter. He’s a welterweight that by all accounts blows up in weight between fights doesn’t watch his diet while in camp. He’s being punished by the UFC and being forced to move up to middleweight. He’s even come out and said “I’m not big enough to beat elite guys at 185.” Also you wonder if now that he has extra weight to give is he even sloppier with his weight. Kennedy is not a giant but he’s a much bigger man. Advantage Kennedy. That said the other x-factor is being active. Kelvin has fought five times since Kennedy got in the cage last. Ring rust can be a real issue. It takes some guys time to find the timing and distance and deal with all the other issues with a real fight vs. hard sparing in the gym.

Tim Kennedy should win the fight. Even with the long layoff I think his psychical size and skill should be enough to get this win. Gastelum wins at Middleweight come over Uriah Hall who often just doesn’t show up and a very shot Nate Mardquardt. Kennedy will be the step to far. Decision win for Tim Kennedy.

Cub Swanson 23-7 MMA 8-3 UFC vs. Choi Do-ho 15-1 MMA 3-0 UFC- With McGregor gone the featherweight division is shifting again. Cub Swanson has been with the UFC for a number of years. A number of times he’s gotten close to a title shot than suffered the key loss. Coo-ho has been with the UFC about two years. Has a great record and so far has finished everyone in the UFC. Swanson last fought at a UFC Fightnight in August. He got a decision win over Tatsuya Kawairi. He’s now won two a row. Doo-ho last fought in July at the TUF 24 finals he knocked out Thiago Tavares. He 3-0 in the UFC all via knockout. He has 13 wins in a row with eight knockouts in a row.

Standup seems to be a battle of technique vs. power. Swanson is know for some great boxing. He trains with Robert Garcia an elite boxing trainer and has in the past worked with boxing champion Tim Bradley. He only has eight career knockouts. Does have a very iron chin as it was only Jose Aldo to ever knockout him out and that was on a perfect flying knee right to the chin. Do-ho has twelve career knockouts and as I said he has eight of those are in a row. His only loss was a decision. Swanson does have a habit of over relying on his boxing. He often only wants to box he doesn’t threaten with elbows or knees or kicks. Do-ho appears to be a more diverse in his striking. Add into that he has the power that only needs to land once to change a fight. Advantage in stand up is Do-ho’s.

Swanson does have some creditably on the ground. He holds blackbelts in both BJJ and Judo. He has eight career submission wins. But he has not scored a submission since 2009 in the WEC. He also has five career submission losses. Choi Do-ho only has one submission win though. Again Swanson sometimes just wants to box last few fights he has started to use more of his ground skills. More submission wins more ranks on the ground and appears more likely to use his grappling the edge goes to Killer Cub.

Looking at training most of his career Swanson has trained with Greg Jackson. Now he did for one fight stay at home in Oxnard he has gone back to Jackson. He also does work with Joel Diaz an elite boxing trainer. Doo-ho trains with the Bursan Team MAD which a gym based in South Korea. Other sites list him at Gumi MMA not sure if that is an alternate name. But I gotta give the edge to Swanson. As often it feels gyms outside the US lag behind others.

First X-Factor is the level of completion. Swanson has been in the cage with some of the very best fighters in the world. His record includes names like Aldo, Edgar, Olivera, Porier. By far Doo-ho is facing the biggest fight of his career. Now he gets this chance because he’s passed every test so far. But we don’t know how good he really is. It could be Swanson takes that best shot and shakes it off because Do-hoo doesn’t hit hard enough to beat a contender. Another X-Factor is ability to grow. Swanson is 33 years old and thirty fights. Odds are he’s not going to suddenly develop a new skill or show this great new side of his game that we haven’t seen. Doo-ho is twenty five only sixteen career fights. He might just have skills we just haven’t seen or what looked bad in the past could now be a strength for him. Advantage Doo-ho.

Call me crazy but I sensing an upset. I think Doo-ho can get this win. I think Swanson might be able to drag into deeper waters but I think he will surivve and come back to KO Swanson. I say second round KO for Doo-ho.

UFC 205 Fallout

There are good nights in any sport, there are great nights in any sport, there are legendary nights in any sports. UFC 205 might just wind up being the single greatest night in Mixed Martial Arts history. There was so much hype for the event. The history of being in New York after the near two decade ban. McGregor the biggest star in the sport trying to hold two titles at once, and face a veteran fighter trying to show he should be getting all the press. Two other title fights along with a loaded card. UFC 200 could have been this but for a number of reasons it fell short. Instead UFC 205 took this level of amazing it was a special night.

The In Ring Action- Liz Carmouche was in the first Women’s fight in UFC history back at UFC 157. The Girlrilla now made history again facing off and beating Katlyn Chookagian. Carmouche was thought to have the grappling advantage while Chookagian had the striking advantage. Carmouche seemed to close the gap in the striking enough to take the first two rounds. In the third Chookagain landed a head kick that nearly stole the fight. It was a good opener for the night. In the second fight Jim Miller had an interesting weekend. His opponent Thiago Alves a long time welterweight failed in his efforts to make lightweight. As a result Miller was forced to gain weight so the fight could go on under New York state rules. Alves had his moments landing some good kicks but Miller managed to out wrestle him and took the win. Miller now his the mark of having fought and won at UFC 100, 200, and 205. Kicking off the FS1 prelims was young prospects Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad. During an early exchange Luque hit a hook that dropped Muhamad to end his night.

Tim Boetsch is one of those fighters blessed and cursed with one shot KO power. On this night it was a blessing. Early on he hurt Rafael Natal. From than on the Brazilian fighter was reluctant to engage Able to pick his shots Boetsch easily landed his big right hand again ending the fight in the first round. Khabib Nurmagomedov entered the night with a perfect record and a chip on his shoulder. Michael Jonson entered with a rep for pulling off the upset in fights he was supposed to lose. Early on Johnson rocked The Eagle with a strong left. But once Nurmagomedov got the fight to the ground was over. There is ground and pound and than there are the type of concrete breaking shots that Nurmagomedov land. Johnson was badly beat up over the course of the first two rounds. In the third he switched going for a submission it might have more an act of mercy than to win. Johnson finally tapped. Post fight Nurmagomedov took aim at McGregor. It was a typical fight for Frankie Edgar he got rocked badly and had to recover and it was a typical fight for Jeremy Stephens fight he landed big powerful shots. Edgar managed to use his footwork and feints to control most of the fight. Still Stephens had his moments. It was the kind of gritty brawl both fans and match makers wanted.

Miesha Tate hit the highest high in March finally wining the UFC Bantamweight title. Than she experienced lowest low an embarrassing one sided loss of the title at UFC 200. Meanwhile Raquel Penington had been looking good in her last three fights but lacked a big name win. Pennington beat Tate in every area. She used her jab to control the stand up. Tate has been known for her great wrestling but Pennington controlled that area as well. At one point it appeared she would submit the former champion with a standing choke. Post fight Tate announced her retirement after a ten year career. Its possible Tate will fight again but she defnetly looked like someone in need of a break. Chris Weidman finally got to live his dream of fighting in MSG and his dream became a nightmare. Early on Weidman controlled the striking and even the ground game. And once again controversy follows a Yoel Romero fight. During the first round break Romero douched himself in excessive water stopping the resumption of the fight until he was dried off. In the second Weidman was again in control when Romero claimed he was poked in the eyes. While replays showed he in fact was giving his history its easy to understand why referee Mario Yamosaki didn’t believe him. After the break Romero began to take over. It was all over the third round. Weidman went for a double leg and wound up running right into a jump knee by Romero. Weidman was down and didn’t get up for several minutes. Post fight Romero demanded a shot at champion Michael Bisping.

The wonderful thing about fighting is one punch can change an entire fight. During the first three rounds of the strawweight title fight Joanna Jedrejczyk dominated coutnry woman Karolina Kowalkiewicz with superior combinations and footwork. It seemed it would be just another one sided mauling for the champion. In the fourth round Karolina Kowalkiewicz managed to land a punch that hurt Jedrejczyk. Suddenly the fast and aggressive champion was slowed and unable to land. Kowalkiewicz never seems to get overly emotional and she stayed calm even with the best chance to win in front of her. Unlike a fighter going over the top head hunting a missing Kowalkiewicz kept landing and the champions noise begun to swell and her eye started to shut. The champion though manged to survive. Still hurt in the fifth she again survived. Kowalkiewicz never was able to land another big shot that could have finished things off. Still though man fans are left wondering what a rematch would be like.

At this point there had been several very good fights. The Welterweight title fight between Tyron Woodley and Stephen Thompson was the first true classic for MMA in MSG. In the first round both men were reluctant to engage. Finally Thompson through a kick that Woodley caught leading to a takedown. Woodley landed good ground and pound. Now one judge and some online ruled this a 10-8 for Woodley. I really don’t how they could. Yes the take down plus the ground and pound was easily enough to score. But I don’t felt Woodley ever came close enough to finish the fight to earn a 10-8 hell the takedown had ore to do with Thompson being lazy with the kick than an attack by Woodley. Most of the fight Thompson kept Woodly backing up near the cage. In the second and third rounds Wonderboy landed more and won those rounds. The fourth finally saw Woodley attack again. The Chosen one rocked Thompson several times. It looked like Thompson was about to be knocked out. Than Woodley locked in a gulliton choke.

This may have been the biggest mistake Woodley made. At the time of the fight though it appeared he was about choke the challenger out. Amazingly Thompson manged to last. It seemed in hindsight this actually gave Thompson a chance to recover. Woodley is known to gas out the longer a fight goes and appeared he was out of gas going into the final round. After some confusion the fight was ruled a draw. It makes sense. Thompson should have won three rounds but the fourth was so one sided Woodley should have gotten a 10-8.

Eddie Alvarez was supposed to be a tough test for McGregor. Like Nate Diaz Alvarez has good boxing, he’s known to have a good chin on top of that he’s a much better offensive wrestler. It wasn’t even close. Alvarez landed some low kicks early and body shots through out. How ever at no point did Alvarez truly have control He was dropped three times in the first round by McGregor’s vaunted left hand. McGregor stuffed every takedown attempt. At one point McGregor in the ultimate disrespect put his hands behind his back and stood still. A shot Alvarez couldn’t even bring himself to attack. In the second it was more the same. Finally McGregor landed four hard punches right to Alvarez’s head and it was over. Fans can dislike McGregor for his antics, his favored treatment by UFC management, and matches up that favor him. End of the day McGregor is the first man to hold two world championships at once in the UFC. He easily beat Aldo and Alvarez to win those titles.

Biggest Winners-

The UFC- After years and years and years the UFC finally made it to New York City. (UFC VII was held in New York State not the City) And by all accounts it will be another big profit day. The live gate alone already has made MSG and UFC history. Add into the fact McGregor brings massive PPV’s and the general hype of the event all indicators say the PPV should break a million buys. Add into the fact the card was exciting it’s the kind of event that should keep casual fans coming back.

Conor McGregor- Once again McGregor talked the talk and walked the walk. Even after the win in the rematch with Diaz some of the luster seemed to be off McGregor. Alvarez should have been a tougher test. After the fight McGregor looked like someone getting done with a light sparing session. McGregor claimed he would beat Aldo he did, he claimed he would hold two titles at once he has, he said he would break records and he has over and over and over again. He said Eddie was to easy hit and he sure was. With each passing fighter McGregor further silences his critics. At this point McGregor calls his own shots. Will he defend his 145 title? Will he defend his 155 title? Will he go after Woodley? Only he knows for sure.

Frankie Edgar- Before Chris Weidman it was Edgar that was the east coast based fighter working to bring MMA to MSG. Edgar was coming off one the worse performances of his career back at UFC 200. Here he rebounded strong. With McGregor taking time off and maybe never back to featherweight and Aldo saying he won’t fight again Edgar might have just secured yet another title shot.

Raquel Pennington- Rocky has long been viewed as an also ran in the Bantamweight division. She was a journey woman. Even with a career best three fight wining streak she as viewed as not being good enough to beat Tate. No she was the set up fight where Tate would get a win before getting back to the elite level. Instead she was easily won this huge fight. He jab stopped Tate’s striking and she surpassed Tate on the ground. Now she’s won four in a row and beat a former champion. Going into 2017 Rocky might just be heading into a potential title shot.

Biggest Losers

Boxing- 2016 has been an awful year for boxing. To many bad fights, to many top fighter inactive, to few new fans checking it out. Saturday there was an HBO card and a PBC on Spike card. Both main events were awful mismatches. Even the most hardcore boxing fan had problems watching them. On top of the law the allowed MMA also created an insurance rule that has forced boxing promoters out of NYC has led to a bad weekend for sweet science.

Eddie Alvarez- Santa Clause is real and he kicked Eddie’s ass. Its once thing to lose but this was an utter blow out. Everything Conor said he was going to do he did to Eddie. Everything Alvarez claimed wouldn’t happen happened. He was out struck his wrestling was ineffective. The moment where Conor put his hands behind his back the normally aggressive Alvarez just stood there. Post fight Alvarez admitted he didn’t follow his game plan. He might as well just said “Conor broke me mentally all his talk was to much.”

Demian Maia- Maia has a six fight winning streak he’s finished three of his last four and barely even touched during that time. Maia was no doubt the front runner to face the winner of Woodley vs. Thompson. The fight was a draw and not just a draw it was a fight of the year contender. Dana White has already come out and said a rematch is likely. Maia might either have to wait or risk fighting again.

What Comes Next-

McGregor made it clear he is about to become a father and won’t be fighting until after the baby is born. I actually think this opens up a perfect fight. I am going to assume McGregor will be forced to vacate the 145 lbs title. At 155 the debate is who should get a title shot Tony Ferguson or Khabib Nurmagomedov should get the next shot. Also people have suggested Nate Diaz fighting McGregor for the third time. Me personally I would say Conor vs. Nate 3 doesn’t have to be done any time soon. With McGregor taking a break I say book Ferguson vs. Khabib. Khabib strong wrestling makes him a threat to anyone but Ferguson is so unusual he’s tough for anyone to face. The two were booked to face each other a few times in the past but injures kept them from fighting. It would set up a clear number 1 contender and could make a great main event for a TV card or strong co-main for a PPV. Raquel Pennington comes off the biggest win of her career over a former champion. The perfect fight for her IMO is Valentina Shevchenko. Earlier this year Shevechenko beat former champion Holly Holm. She has great Muay Thai and could make for an interesting fight with the strong boxing of Pennington.

Tyrone Woodley and Stephen Thompson should fight in a rematch. The fight was a draw both men showed they could be perfect foils for each other. Plus it’s hard to say Woodley should move on McGregor or Maia when he didn’t beat Thompson. Karolina Kowalkiewicz hurt Joanna Jedrejczyk with a great punch. But it’s hard say she could automatic rematch when you look at how one sided the fight was until that point. To a point Jedrzejczyk has already cleared out a good part of the division. She beat Gadelha twice, Esparza to win the title and now Kowalkiewicz. Rose Namajunas lost to Kowalkiewicz. That leaves the best option as Jessica Andrade. A former Bantamweight she dropped to straweight earlier this year going 2-0 battering former title challenger, Jessica Penne and taking less than a round to submit to ranked Joanne Calderwood. Andrade is a very aggressive striker while not as technical as the champion she does have a good ground game that could make it interesting. For Kowalkiewicz a few options Claudia Gadelha is viewed as the biggest threat to Joanna Champion but already has lost twice. Also former champion Carla Esparza would also be a good option.

UFC 205 Picks

2016 might be the year of the biggest events in MMA history. And we got yet another coming up. After nearly two decades of being outlawed MMA is back in New York City. Madison Square Garden has hosted some of the biggest moments in boxing and pro wrestling history. Now it’s home to a massive UFC card. Three title fights a chance at history and just a loaded card.

UFC Lightweight Championship Eddie Alvarez (c) 28-4 MMA 3-1 UFC vs. Conor McGregor (fwc) 20-3 MMA 8-1 UFC- Talk about different paths to the top. Alvarez started his MMA career in 2003. He spent years fighting his way to the UFC until he finally got there in 2014. McGregor started his career in 2008 he was in the UFC in 2013. McGregor is the guy in million dollar suits he is the big talker. Eddie is the average looking guy you know don’t know he’s a fighter until he steps in the cage. But this has potential to be a great fight. Alvarez last fought in July at a UFC fight night as part of UFC 200 weekend. It was his title shot at Rafael dos Anjos. Going into that fight RDA was on such a roll he looked to be unstopable. Than Eddie hit this perfect hook that rocked him badly. We than saw how smart Alvarez is. Instead of head hunting he kept changing it up. He would go to the body when RDA protected the body he went back to the head. Finally the referee stepped in and Eddie Alvarez was the top lightweight in the world. McGregor last fought in August at UFC 202. It was the rematch with with Nate Diaz. It played out very similar to the first with Conor controlling the early portion than getting rocked towards the middle of the fight. Unlike the fight at UFC 196 Conor didn’t panic He rode out the storm got back into the fight late and won a decision.

When it comes to striking both men have knockout power. Conor McGregor has seventeen career knockout wins. He has never been knocked out in his career. Alvarez has fifteen career knockouts. He has only been knocked out once in his career. Now we have very different striking styles. Eddie is a classic tough Philly fighter type. He brawls throws a lot of big punches stands right in front of you. Now he’s been working with Mark Henry more the last few fights and we have seen him start to work in more footwork and feints. Conor is very one of kind striker her works a lot more movement. He has very good boxing and that trademark left hand. But he also works in more kicks and not just round house kicks he will throw hooks, side kicks he will spin. A real key question is will Conor’s power carry up to 155? He rocked Diaz but never stopped him. That could be part of Conor’s body lot liking carrying 25 in extra pounds compared to feather weight. Lightweight is just ten pounds more. Now Alvarez is a lot like Diaz in that he can take a good punch and come back. However he is not as big as Diaz. Nate Diaz is six foot with a seventy six inch reach. Meaning he was a lot taller and longer than Conor. Alvarez is fight foot eight inches with a sixty nine inch reach. Meaning he is shorter and giving up a huge five inches to Conor in boxing range.

Now I’ll get more into this when I get to X-Factors but a big part of this will be how Eddie tries to fight. If he’s smart and uses a jab and doesn’t rush it will fairly even standing up. If he wants to prove a point and KO Conor I think he leaves himself open. I would rather have a bigger and more diverse striker in any case. So I give the edge in stand up to McGregor.

When it comes to finishing on the ground the numbers back Alvarez he has seven career submissions. Now he hasn’t scored a submission win since Josh Neer in 2010. That said he’s only been submitted twice in his career. McGregor though only has one submission win and that was back in 2012 in a smaller promotion. The real key is that McGregor has all three of his losses via submission. Now McGregor was said to have worked heavily on his jijitsu after his loss to Diaz. He brought in a high level BJJ coach. That said I don’t think he can close the gap that much.

Wrestling wise again huge advantage to Alvarez. He has the wrestling back round. We even saw him use his wrestling quite a bit against Melendez and Pettis. Now a lot of people forget Conor was actually he one that took the first fight to the ground vs. Diaz. And in the rematch he blocked a number of take downs. But Diaz kept going for take downs against the cage allowing McGregor to wall walk. Alvarez is a much better offense wrestler than Diaz is. We saw Conor struggle against Chad Mendez. You just feel every second this fight is a wrestling match Conor is in danger. Alvarez gets the advantage here.

We have some contrasts in training styles. Alvarez has worked out of few different gyms but right now works mostly with Mark Henry and Ricardo Almeda. So we get the usual MMA style team. Where he’s got a number of guy at various levels some high level UFC guys or WSOF champs all of whom are getting ready for a fight or are trying to stay fresh or come into work with him. McGregor is out of SBG Ireland with head coach John Kavanagh another gym with some UFC guys and any number of prospects training. How ever it seems that McGregor does more of a boxing style training camp. Where its all about him leading up. He has a few times left Ireland and gone Vegas to train. Now he has often said he doesn’t really specialized on his opponents. I think Conor’s way is the better way especially for such a big fight.

The single biggest X-Factor for this fight will be the mental warfare. McGregor is known as a great hype man. He trash talks and runs down his opponent. That isn’t just about selling the fight that him doing all he can to piss you off and get you to fight stupid. More often than not it’s worked. Digeo Brando, Dustin Porier and most all Jose Aldo seemed to be really affected by it. Just look back at UFC 194 Aldo came out looked for a big hay maker left himself open go KO’ed, woke up and had to cry himself to sleep. Is Alvarez being affected? Well watching the UFC 205 press conference he sure did. Early on he snapped interrupting Conor right off the bat. During that moment when that fans started insult him he didn’t seem to understand what was going on. He seemed easily upset when talking about Conor. So yeah it seems Conor is already winning this round.

This could be a very inserting fight. So much of will depend on how Eddie tries to fight Conor. If he comes out mixes in wrestling with footwork and his striking. He could force Conor to have to dig deep again like he did at UFC 202. If Eddie looking for a big knockout or to just crush him Conor will be able to use that trademark timing and prescience. How will Conor’s body respond at a lighter weight again? Will doing a cut affect him or will a more ideal weight for his body restore his cardio and power? I frankly can see both guys winning. My pick though is Conor. I do think his different style striking will give Eddie problems I think the mental war will wear Eddie out. I even think Conor will be able to stuff a few take downs. I will even listen to Mystic Mac and say first round knockout.

UFC Welterweight Championship Tyron Woodley (c) 16-3 MMA 6-2 UFC vs. Stephen Thompson 13-1 MMA 8-1 UFC- We have the classic case of a world champion with all the talent in the world taking on a contender that seems to perfectly built to defeat him. We have a champion who sat out a very long time vs. a challenger a who we saw rise to the top by going out and facing tough fighters. We also have some growing bad blood. Woodley last fought in July at UFC 201. He had sat out over 400 days he felt had earned a title shot and refused to fight after Johnny Hendricks has been forced to pull out of there UFC 192 fight. It kind of feels like the UFC finally just gave him the shot so he would finally fight again. That said his waiting payed off. He got his shot at Robbie Lawler and in the first round he sprang forward landed a big over hand and won the title. While The Chosen One was out Wonderboy was fighting building his name and case for a title shot. He last fought in June at a Fight Nigh and dominated Rory MacDonald. Whole fight he just out timed him out landed him. Rory never got going.

Now many felt with that win which put Thompson at seven wins in a row made him the number one contender. Well Thompson was a Fox Analyst for UFC 201 he picked Lawler to win and even said he would rather fight Robbie. So after winning Wooldey throws that back at him and starts asking for “money fights” against Nick Diaz or GSP. Than we get some back and forth Thompson saying Woodley is scared and than after the fight is announced Woodley calling him Wonder Woman and saying “He knows I had agreed already.” The fans seems to have sided with Thompson which I always think can be a small advantage for a fighter.

Striking the advantage seems to all go to Thompson. In MMA Thompson has seven career wins via knockout in only 13 career wins. Woodley has six knockouts certainly has power he has six career KO’s. Now you add into that Thompson also was a kickboxer in 38 armature and 20 pro fights he was never lost. He’s never been knocked out in his MMA career or Kickboxing career. Woodley has been knocked out once in his career. Now style wise we have very different attacks. Woodley is more of a boxer he even openly talks about all the old film he has studded of guys like Ali. Thompson is a Karate black belt he will do things not many MMA fighters will. He uses a lot side kicks and again spinning style attacks. I gotta give the edge to Thompson. Woodley likes to spring in throw a few punches and get out. In all three of his losses Woodley has had the same issue. He can’t get in or close enough and gases out. Thompson movement and kicks should keep this at the range he wants. Also Karate guys are great at reading the body and predicting when his opponent will attack and how.

Ground game it seems to be advantages for Woodley. Tyrone was a Division wrestler in College and very early in is career he would use that wrestling to dominate fights. He also has five career submission wins. Now he hasn’t scored a submission win since 2010. Thompson has one career submission win ironically back in 2010. In his one career loss Thompson faced Matt Browne. In that fight he was taken down over and over again. Since than though Thompson has really worked on his wrestling. He started heading out to Serra Longo to train with Chris Weidman. And we have seen it pay off he can stuff take downs now and if he is taken down escape. Woodley has the edge though.

Woodley used to train out of American Top Team but no longer seems to got to the Coconut Creek location. Instead his main gym seems to be his own ATT branch in Missouri while also spending time at Rourfusport. That could be key in that Thompson has such a unique style but a great coach like Duke Roufus and training partners like Anothy Pettis can help him figure it out. Thompson as I said he works his wrestling with Chris Weidman but mostly stays close to home in South Carolina. Often when a guy “stays close to home” it seems he never gets to that next level. But Thompson hasn’t that problem in his career. He also has worked with Tristar so it’s not like he only has the same guy throughout his career.

The biggest X-Factor in this fight to me will be cardio. Tyrone Woodley seems to fade the longer the fight goes. He likes to load up and land that big power shot. Thompson seems to hold his power better because he isn’t putting it all into a single shot. The longer this fight goes the better it is for Thompson. Big key is this fight is also five rounds so Woodley could be fading when they enter the championship rounds.

There is an old saying styles make fights. Thompson has the perfect style to beat Woodley. Now Woodley can claim he doesn’t gas out by again the history says he does. He can say he’s going in high level Karate guys to mirror Thompson but we have seen guys try that and not work. Thompson’s kicks and movement should be enough. Third round knockout for Wonderboy.

UFC Strawweight Championship Joanna Jedrzejczyk (c) 12-0 MMA 5-0 UFC vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz 10-0 MMA 3-0 UFC- Back in 2012 these two fought in an armature fight in there native Poland. Joanna submitted Karolina in the second round. Now all these years later as pros they colloid for the world title in New York City. Joanna last fought in July at The Ultimate Fighter Final during UFC 200 weekend. It was her rematch with Claudia Gadelha. The first fight had been very close Joanna got the win but it was not without controversy. A number of people felt Claudia won they also coached on the Ultimate Fighter and that only makes bad blood worse. Early on it seemed it be Joanna’s worse nightmare. She was dropped by a punch got taken down. It looked like she was on the way to losing her title. As the fight wears on though Gadelha starts to fade while Joanna is able to start sprawling and brawling She ups her output and manages to rally back and win a decision on the cards. We had seen Jedrzejczyk dominate a fight start to finish. This was the time we saw she could be tested and get the W.

Karolina last fought at UFC 201 later in July. She beat Rose Namajunas. Going in Rose had a lot of momentum. I think people excepted it to very even on the feet. With Rose having the ground game to fall back on. But Kowalkiewicz manged to shut her down. She used striking to stifle Rose’s own and kept the fight standing. It seems every fight out she’s put in a higher profile position and each time she has risen to the occasion.

This is kind of a strange fight to break down because these two are so similar. Both fighters have Kickboxing more specifically Muay Thai as a base for there striking. Both fighters are more about volume than a single power strike. The power advantage though does seem to go to Joanna Jedrzejczyk. In her MMA pro career she has four knockouts. Karolina Kowalkiewicz only has one career knockout in MMA. Also the eyeball test says Joanna has more power. We have seen so many fighters face her and leave very beaten up. Hell Jessica Penne looked like she had run into a buzz saw. So I have to give the edge to Joanna champion when it comes to striking.

We really haven’t seen either woman on the ground that often. Joanna won the armature fight between these two and her second career pro fight via submission. Karolina has won two pro fight via submission. So we aren’t likely to see a great exchange on the ground. Joanna has shown excellent take down defense in her career. Often she manages to do a lot of damage on a fighter looking to take her down. Karolina really doesn’t give up many take downs either and she has manged to survive any ground exchanges. I gotta just say push we really won’t know who has the advantage until we see some type of grappling exchange.

Training Joanna recently made a change beginning to work with American Top Team. ATT has some great fighters including other females and smaller fighters she can work with. It also has some great coaches. I’m not really sure if she is still working with her old team in Poland. From what I understand Karolina is working with a Gracie Barra team in Poland. So I have to give the edge with to Joanna. Sometimes though changing teams can backfire or it takes a while for the fighter to get used to the new coaches and corner.

Several X-Factors I can see. One this is easily the biggest fight or Karolina’s career. She co-main evented UFC 201 but that “oh yeah that one is coming up” due to the hype of UFC 200. Joanna has been on some big shows in the past including UFC 193. She used to dealing with the extra attention and press. Advantage Joanna. Also Karolina has never gone twenty five minutes in her career. Joanna now has twice. We saw Claudia get off to a great start but fade in rounds four and five. Joanna knows she can last that time. Again advantage to Joanna Champion. Final X-Factor the high number of title changes for the last year or so. Since UFC 193 where Ronda lost we have seen Ronda, Holm, Tate, Werdum, Lawler, Aldo, Weidman, Dillishaw, Rockhold, and RDA lose there titles. Is Jedrzejczyk who is now the second longest running champion in the UFC due to lose? If nothing else maybe it builds up Karolina’s confidence.

So making this pick I have to go with the champion. A big reason is that Karolina just seems to do a lot of the same stuff Joanna does. I just don’t think you can beat her trying to fight her at what she does well. I think Joanna will have a high out put and wear down Karolina getting a TKO in the second round.

Chris Weidman 13-1 MMA 9-1 UFC vs. Yoel Romero 12-1 MMA 7-0 UFC- The king of the UFC Middleweight division is Michael Bisping. Seems like everyone is making there case for while they should get a shot. Both these men last fought in December. They had radically different nights and both have been out for dramatically different reasons for being out so long. That night in December Romero beat Jacare Souza. But like so many others times in Romero’s career there was controversy. Early on he badly hurt Souza and nearly knocked him out in the first round. As the fight wore on Souza started to get back into the fight he went for a take down. At which point Romero blatantly grabbed the fence and used it to wind up in top position. Now the referee stood the fight back up but many felt he should have lost a point. As the fight wore on Jacare recovered and really got back into the fight but he never got the big advantage like that take down could have given him. The judges gave Romero the win but the fight was very close and again many felt he should have lost a point. Than post fight he failed a drug test. He manged to prove it was due to a tainted supplement. He’s been suspended since.

That same night Weidman was defending his middleweight title against Luck Rockhold. That fight was pretty highly anticipated fight. First round Weidman manged to get the back he kept Rockhold from getting range and won that round. Second round was clearly all Rockhold he used his great kicks really started to world Weidman’s body. We get to the third and it appears Weidman is winning that round until he throws a spinning hook kick. It was not a great kick it didn’t land all it did was allow Rockhold to tie him up and take down. Quickly he was mounted and took a beating. You really could argue the fight should have been stopped. They come back out for the forth but Weidman is done. Got taken down again mounted took more ground and pound before it was finally called off. Weidman was supposed to get a rematch at UFC 199 but an injury forced him out. He than saw Michael Bisping win the title and got passed for the next shot.

Both these men come from a wrestling back round. Weidman was an all American in college at Hofstra University. He finished 3^rd in the country in 2007. Romero though was a Olympic wrestler for Cuba. He won a silver medal in 2000 Olympics he also won a gold in world Championships in 1999 and the 2003 Pan American Games. So in Freestyle Wrestling Romero would have the bigger advantage. Of course this isn’t Freestyle wrestling. And we really haven’t seen Romero use his wrestling to score takdowns that often. According to UFC.com Weidman is at 55% success rate for his take downs Romero is at 44%. Weidman has also landed more take downs than Romero has gone for. In terms of submissions Weidman has three career submissions and Romero has zero. Now I am going to call this a draw on the ground. Part of wrestling in MMA is keeping the fight standing when you want to. Weidman seems to more willing to wrestle and go for submissions but Romero might be able to fend him off.

Both these men have power. Weidman has six career knockouts although one comes off of an injury. Romero though has ten career knockouts. Both guys also have shown one shot power. Both men also lost there one fight via knockouts. Now with Romero part of that was him gassing out, Wediamn it was he was in an awful position and just had to take the shots. Neither guy is really known for technique. Weidman really is more of a bull rusher and we have seen him get in trouble not only against Rockhold but even against Belfort. Romero is a little better and seems a bit more patient waiting to land his big shot. So I have to give the edge to Romero.

Weidman is a member of Serra-Longo they have been his trainers throughout his MMA career. He also works with Renzo Gracie on BJJ. Also he trains some striking with Stephan Thompson. The question could be what changes have they made since his loss to Rockhold. Romero is a member of American Top Team. Now Serra-Longo has had some good fighters but it doesn’t seem they always improve. I will say ATT give Romero the edge here.

So looking at the X-Factors. Weidman has been one of the fighters doing all he can to get MMA legalized in New York. He is a Long Island Native and he’s talked about how much he wants this fight. However we see that negatively affect some fighters. Some love it others deal with all kinds of problems. The other X-Factor is where is Chris Weidman’s head out. For the first time in his MMA career he is coming off a loss. And it wasn’t just a loss it was a bad fairly one sided loss. Where is he head at? So again advantage Romero. Final X-Factor is age. Weidman is 32 and Romero is 39. Younger fighter gets the edge.

So tough fight to pick. You can see Romero is the better stirker but Weidman can still KO him. We can say Weidman is more likely to wrestle and than first thing Romero does is hit a double leg. Weidman could be a mess fighting in NYC and off a loss or he could more motivated than ever. All the edge seem to go to Romero so I am picking him. This fight will go three rounds and I could even see a split decision.

Kelvin Gastelum 12-2 MMA 7-2 UFC vs. Donald Cerrone 31-7 1 NC MMA 16-4 UFC- One fighter is on what maybe the best run of his career. The other coming off the single biggest win of his career. Cerrone last fought at UFC 202 in August he knocked out Rick Story. Story is a tough vet and Cerrone just lit him up finally finishing the fight in the second round with a flawless looking combination. Since moving up to Welterweight Cerrone is 3-0 looked like a monster finishing all three fights. Gastelum last fought in July at UFC 200. He earned a unanimous decision win over Johnny Hendricks. Gastelum has had some strong wins but that was his biggest win first time he beat a former world champion.

KO numbers favor Cerrone. The cowboy has won seven career fights via knockout while Gaselum has only won four. Now Cerrone has been knocked out before while Gasteleum has never been finished. But just watching them Cerrone is very good diverse striker with lethal Muay Thai. He’s got amazing leg kicks. He also has a record as a kickboxer and even boxed a pro fight in that sport. Gastelum has talent but I don’t think he will be able to deal with the kicking game. His best shot would be to make it more of a boxing range fight.

Ground game clearly seems to got in the direction of Cerrone. He has sixteen career submission wins while Gastelum only has four. Cerrone has only been submitted once that was to Benson Henderson way back in 2010. Cerrone is known to use his striking to set up his ground game. He often will hurt a fighter with striking take it down and get the submissions. Gastelum has never been finished again it just appears he will be a step behind Cerrone on the ground.

Training Cerrone is a long time Jackson Winkeljohn fighter. He works with world class coaches and training partners. He also works out heavily at his ranch but again he’s brinign in world class guys. He’s also in the last year really changed up his training in terms of what he does. He cut down hard sparring in favor of more technique and well it’s appearing to pay off. Gastelum trains with Yumma MMA in Arizona. Right now it appears to be a big fish in a small pond situation. Now that can be a god thing. But it more likely Cerrone is finding guys that can be his version of Gastelum than Gastelum finding a perfect training partner to mirror Cerrone.

To me the big X-Factor will be weight. Cerrone was a career long lightweight who has moved up. It seems like his body has really responded to be to the extra weight. Meanwhile Gastelum has missed weight at welterweight a few times. At one point the UFC forced him to move back up to middleweight. Not it’s not that he’s to big for the weight class. It just seems to be he’s not always on point with his diet. I think that will factor in and it’s another advantage for Cerrone.

So clearly I’m picking Gastelum… Ok of course I’m picking Cerrone. I mean I gave the guy every single advantage. I think the Cowboy follow the game plan that has worked for him so many times. I see him breaking down Gastelum with leg kicks and good boxing. He will rock him take him down and than get a submission.

Miesha Tate 18-6 MMA 5-3 UFC vs. Raquel Pennington 8-5 MMA 5-2 UFC- The former world champion coming off a truly awful performance. She is taking on a long time vet that is surging as of late and has given some her best performances. Tate last fought at UFC 200 that other biggest event ever that happened this year. That was a huge moment for her, she came in world champion, wound up main eventing, and there was all this talk about what would come next. In all the interviews Tate did the same things. “I’m not worried about Ronda… I will beat Nunes because I can take her shots and she gasses.” I think she took Nunes way to lightly and over esistemed her ability to recover. Right away Nunes hurt her broke her noise than got her down and submitted her with a choke. That snapped a five fight winning streak. Pennington has been around a while she doesn’t have the best record but she’s really seemed to turn a corner looking better and better. She’s on a career best three fight winning streak her last fight was August at UFC 202 she got unanimous decision win over Elizabeth Phillips. That said this streak has come against more a second tier talent Tate is the most elite fighter she has faced since her loss to Holly Holm.

Neither fighter is known for knockout power. Tate only has three KO’s and Pennington has only has one. Both are pretty strong chin wise. Tate only has two career losses via knockout. Pennington has never been knocked out. Both are more likely to brawl standing up. Tate did show great patience against Holm though. Tate seems to get hurt in fights when striking more now she usually is able to recover but still seeing someone get dropped will affect the judges. Pennington also has a two and a half inch reach advantage. So I am giving her the striking advantage.

Tate’s background is wrestling as has often been repeated she made the boys wrestling team when in high school. In terms of submissions Tate has seven career submission wins while Pennington only has five. Now Pennington has only been submitted once while Tate has been submitted three times. But look at who submitted her. Twice it was to Ronda Rousey who some say was has the best arm bar in MMA history. The other to Amanda Nunes a BJJ black belt with a judo background and part of that was due to a broken noise. Pennington doesn't have a wrestling back round prior to MMA. Her style seems to more about standing up. Tate has the edge in grappling.

Tate trains with Xtreme Couture. Its not the same high level gym it was a number of years ago but it still has some good coaches. Her long time boyfriend Bryan Caraway acts as her head coach and corners her. Caraway can be mixed in the corner sometimes he seems to just spew random or complete BS (him saying “she’s breaking” in the rematch with Rousey comes to mind) but Tate has had a lot off success. Pennington trains with Triple Threat Gym in Colorado which seems to be a boxing gym and she also does work with Altitude MMA. Clear edge seems to got to Tate.

I think the biggest X-Factor is where is Miesha Tate’s head at. Now’s she lost before and come back. But one thing I really don’t like is Tate is already talking about a catchweight fight with Cyborg. Years ago she fought lost the first fight to Ronda and all she talked about leading up to her fight with Julie Kedzie was Ronda and the rematch, it was only a mistake by Kedize that allowed her to win. Against Cat Zingano she seemed to worry more about again the rematch with Ronda. And again 200 she goes in with the title but it talking about a third fight with Ronda, a rematch with Holm, a super fight with Cyborg. Well she lost to Cat and Nunes. If Tate is looking past Pennington that could cost her. Edge to Rocky. The other X-factor is level of competition. Tate has fought so many top level fighters, Pennington has fought a few but yet to get that big win. So edge Tate.

To me this is Tate’s fight to lose. She should be good enough standing that she can steal a round if need be in an all stand up fight. Her wrestling will give her the huge edge on the ground hell even just the threat of it will help. I think Pennington will hang in there and get the end. Tate gets a decision win.

Frankie Edgar 20-5-1 MMA 14-5-1 UFC vs. Jeremy Stephens 25-12 MMA 11-11 UFC- The Answer vs. Who The Fuck Is This Guy? Sorry I couldn’t help myself. This has the potential to be a real barn burner. Two of the toughest and longer tennured guys in the UFC. Think about it this fight could be a co-main event any other card its the featured prelim here. Edgar last fought in July at UFC 200 it was a rematch with Jose Aldo. And it was an awful performance. He was on a long winning streak that as interim title fight. It just seemed like he never got going. Aldo kept him at the range he wanted his wrestling didn’t do anything. Even his head coach Mark Henry admitted they didn’t adjust well in the fight. That snapped five fight winning streak. Stephens last fought in May at a Fight Night. He won a unaimous decision win over Renan Barao. Now with Barao he was making his 145 debut and you can argue he’s never been close to the same level since Dillishaw beat him. Still though it was a good big name win for Stephens. That said Stephenes fought a great fight he used his own striking to hurt Barao and when he needed to clinched up and shut Barao down.

Both men have great striking. Its a contrasting style. Edgar uses a lot of movement he cuts angles he feints. Stephens is more of a flat footed brawler. He likes to plant and bang it out. Stephens is three inches taller and also has three inches in reach. That said Frankie is very used to be the smaller man. I think the movement will cut the advantage and Stephens doesn’t have the great leg kicks that Aldo has. When it comes to power edge goes to Stephens who has sixteen career KO while Edgar only has six. Both have tough chins though, Stephens has only been knocked out once and Edgar has never been KO’ed. I am giving the edge to Edgar. I think the movement will be key. Stephens might catch him but I don’t think it’s as likely as someone like Aldo doing it to Edgar.

Both men have wrestling back rounds. But Edgar is more likely to use it. We do see him work in take-downs more. Stephens again is more likely to brawl. We did see in Barao fight him clinch a bit more. Edgar has more submissions with four career wins and he’s never been submitted. Stephens has three wins and three losses via submission. Again I have to give the edge to Edgar just because he’s more likely to use his wrestling.

Training Stephens fights out of Alliance MMA one of the best teams in the sport. Edgar boxing coach is Mark Henry who has really come to fame lately he’s also working BJJ with Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeda and does Muay Thai with Phil Nurse. As far as I’m concerned its a draw here. Both guys are working with the best and training with the best. I don’t really see a huge X-Factor here. Both guys are so experienced I can’t think of something that they both haven’t dealt with.

When I pick fights I like to lean to the more well rounded fighter, the more technical, and the fighter more likely to use all of the tools. All those go to Frankie Edgar. This could wind up being a grind. I see it going all three rounds. And the judges will give it Frankie Edgar.

Khabib Nurmagomedov 23-0 MMA 7-0 UFC vs. Michael Johnson 17-10 MMA 9-6 UFC- Vitally important fight in the lightweight division. Both men have come close to getting a title shot but various things have kept them from it. Nurmagoedov is a fighter that has seen injures halt his career. He did not fight for two years because of leg problems He finally made his return in April at UFC on Fox. At first he was supposed to face Tony Ferguson. Than Ferguson got hurt, Khabib went to the UFC begged them find anyone so he could just fight. That wound up being Darrell Horcher who was making his UFC debut. Looked a little rusty early but eventually took over got a take down and got a ground and pound TKO win. Johnson just fought in September. Going into the fight he was on a two fight skid he was matched up with Dustin Porier who was 4-0 at 155. Johnson though took only 1:35 to knock him out. He called for a fight on this card and he’s got it.

Johnson is the one more known for his striking. Both men have eight career knockouts. Although with Nurmagomedov a lot of those come from ground and pound. Neither man has ever been knocked. Nurmagomedov is not bad on his feet he’s just more known for his wrestling. Johnson seems to prefer boxing. Johnson will also have a two inch reach advantage. So in stand up Johnson has the advantage.

Grappling is Nurmagomdedov’s wheel house. He’s got a back round in wrestling, sambo, and judo. Johnson has wrestled but not nearly on the level that Khabib has. When it comes to submission numbers are all on Nurmagomdedov’s side. He has seven career submission wins while Johnson only has the two. Also Johnson has been submitted six times. You gotta think Khabib is looking to get this fight to the ground because he knows he’s got a huge edge.

Training Johnson is a Blackzillina. I’m torn on that camp they always seem to have big names around them but yet the results are never great. Khabib splits his time part of it in Russian with Red Furry where his coached by his father. He also works with AKA. AKA has a lot of great fighters but we often see there guys get hurt. So I would be worried if Khabib could come in with a more banged up body than he should. But I will give the edge in training to the Russian.

One X-Factor to me is its been a very long time since Khabib fought an upper level fighter. He beat RDA back in April of 2014 than he started suffering injury after injury after injury. Horcher was a good fighter but had never been close to the level of elite. He was a good shake off the rust fight. I guess you could view that either way. I’m sure Khabib is viewing it as I got all the rust off now. I’m sure Johnson is thinking I’ve been the one facing top guys I’ve been in the fire. The other X-Factor is Khabib feels he was screwed out of a title shot. He’s undefeated most believe if not for his injures he would have already gotten one. Than his name was being tossed out as the next contender when the UFC was trying to get Conor and Eddie to agree to terms. He’s come out said in interviews “I better get a shot next if I don’t I will make sure the UFC doesn’t get into Russia.” We have seen guys come into fight saying stuff like “I better...” And than they lose. To me that is an edge for Johnson because you shouldn’t look past that guy.

To me the single biggest edge is the wrestling of Khabib. I just can’t see Johnson being able to stop it. I think this will be a very take down heavy fight. I think Khabib will take down early and often by the second round Johnson will be shot and that will led to a TKO win for the Russian.

Rashad Evans 19-5-1 MMA 14-5-1 UFC vs. Tim Kennedy 18-5 MMA 3-1 UFC- So two older fighters, former teammates and really a cross roads fight for both men. You feel like the winner can make another run to the top the loser might be making TV the full time job. Kennedy has not fought since UFC 178 in September of 2014. He lost a highly controversial fight to Yoel Romero. He had Romero hurt on a big punch right at the end of the second round. Romero’s corner did all they could to extend the round break so he could recover. Now Kennedy believes he should have won because Romero didn't’ answer the bell to start round three. The fight goes on Romero knocks Kennedy out to win the fight. Kennedy did a file protest but the result was up held. Kennedy has since pursued outside interest. Evans had his own two year layoff that was due to injury. He has fought twice in his comeback and lost twice. The last one came in April in a UFC on Fox. He was paired up with Glover Trexiera and got knocked out in under two minutes. Really that was the one big shot that landed and it ended the fight.

Striking the power numbers favor Evans. He has eight career knockouts and Kennedy only has six. So it’s not a huge power edge. Both seem to have good chins both have only been knocked out twice. I’ve seen some people wonder if Evans chin is shot after his last fight. But again that was only his second knockout loss in twenty six career fights. It does seems Evans got hit a lot when he fought Badar not that long ago. Still I think Evans is the better striker he will also have longer reach and is more likely to use kicks and have a more diverse striker.

When it comes to grappling Evans does have the better back round. He was a wrestler for Michigan in College. That said in MMA he really doesn’t use his wrestling as his career has worn on. Kennedy actually does have a pretty good ground game from what I have seen over the years. When it comes to submissions huge edge to Kennedy. Evans only has one career submission career. Kennedy has eight. Neither man has been submitted. I will give the grappling edge to Kennedy because I think he will more likely to look for the ground.

Training Kennedy has been a Jackson Winkeljohn fighter most of his career. I assume he is training with them for this fight. Evans is a Blackzillina. Again the Blackzillina’s have a lot of big names not the results. Greg Jackson and Mike Winkeljohn are often called the best coaches in MMA. Also both guys trained Evans. So I think edge goes to Kennedy.

The biggest X-Factor to me is Evans athleticism. He was a guy that was always a great athlete. That played a huge part in his style and his success as a fighter. Now as you got older naturally that fades to begin with you add into that Evans suffered a leg injury. Sometimes you just never quite recover at the same level. Kennedy meanwhile fights a style that will work better for an older fighter so edge goes to Kennedy. This is also the first time Evans will fight at middleweight. He’s spent almost his entire MMA career at two hundred and five pounds now he’s got to cut an extra twenty. He did wrestle 165 and 174 but it’s been so long since he got to that weight and his body was different. Kennedy has been a middleweight his whole career so edge to Kennedy. Now it’s been two years since Kennedy fought. Evans has the advantage he’s been through two camps so the active edge goes to Evans. Final X-Factor is Evans is from New York State so I’m sure he will be fired up to fight at home.

I just to much working against Evans. I just feel he’s more shot as a fighter at this point. I don’t think Kennedy will finish him. But I think it goes the distance it would play out some what like the Badar fight did where Kennedy just keeps winning the exchanges. Decision win for Tim Kennedy.

Jim Miller 27-8 1 NC MMA 16-7 1 NC UFC vs. Thiago Alves 21-10 MMA 13-7 UFC- Miller last fought at UFC on Fox in August he beat Joe Lauzon via split decision. It was a rematch from UFC 155. It was a very close fight. Honestly it could have gone either way. Miller now has won two fights in a row. Alves last fought in May of 2015. He lost via doctor stoppage to Carlos Condit at UFC fight night. It was a very one sided fight. Condit just did what ever he wanted against Alves. Since than he’s dealt with injures causing another long lay off.

Looking at the striking numbers the power goes to Alves. He’s won twelve fight via knockout in his career. Miller has only won four. Both men are tough to finish. Aleves has only been knocked out twice. Miller only once. Miller has a one inch reach advantage. Miller style if very punch heavy. Alves has more of a muay thai style. Miller can not afford to take to many leg kicks by Alves. It seems that Alves has the advantage more power more diverse striker.

When it comes to the ground game it seems to favor Miller. Alves is from Brazil he holds a brown belt in BJJ how ever Miller is a black belt. By all account Miller’s is not just some paper black belt. Numbers wise Miller has 13 career submission wins. Alves only has two. Miller has been submitted twice. He also tapped out in his no contest before the result was changed. Alves has been submitted more times at four. Really again one of those cases where I am just giving the edge to Miller because he is more likely to use his wrestling and BJJ.

9

Training Alves is a long time member of American Top Team. Just one of those camps that any given day any given time you will see world class talent. Miller spent most of his career AMA Fightclub more recently he’s been working with his own Miller Brothers MMA. Giving the edge to Alves. The X-Factors are Alves is cutting to 155 for the first time. He had issues making weight when he fought at 170. So he could come in really drained. Also Alves is coming in on a long layoff. I always favor the more active fighter. I think that weight cut winds up being to much for Alves. We also don’t know if Alves power will follow him down to lightweight. I think Miller will be able to get this fight to the ground and submit him.

Rafael Natal 21-7-1 MMA 9-4-1 UFC vs. Tim Boetsch 19-10 MMA 10-9 UFC- Natal last fought at UFC 197 in April. He lost a unanimous decision to Robert Whittaker. He had a five fight winning streak snapped. Boetsch last fought in July at a fight night. He KO’ed Josh Samman. Before that he had lost four in a row.

To me this this is a fairly simple fight to break down. Boetsch is the better striker has nine career knockouts. Natal has the grappling advantage with eight career submission wins. The style that gives Natal trouble is high volume and good wrestling. Boetsch is more of a single power punch guy. I think Natal will be able to get this fight to the ground. I think he will pick up a decision win.